Is this the last tory government
Discussion
Robertj21a said:
skwdenyer said:
The reason I don't think a GE is such a great idea is that whoever proposes a delay (rather than certainty, either way) should (in an ideal world) get thrashed. We simply can't have more years of uncertainty like the last 2. We'll have no economy left to speak of by then...
If May immediately calls a 2nd ref, she gets to pre-empt a confidence motion (internal or Parliamentary) by saying that the electorate must be consulted as just promised. Anyone trying to pull the rug out from under that risks being tarred with the brush of being scared of the electorate - something they tend not to take too kindly too (the electorate that is).
Whether a 2nd ref or a GE, it will be acrimonious and divisive, as a GE will be a proxy referendum of sorts.
The only peaceful outcome I can envisage right now is no Brexit - yes, there will be those who feel betrayed, but I suspect a surprising number who voted Leave will in fact be a bit relieved. It only needs to be positioned as an attempt to stem the risks and looses of the last 2+ years. If the PM can line up some major announcements of new investment from multinationals and perhaps a "sop" budget then so much the better.
At the same time, a package of electoral reforms wouldn't go amiss. And getting our EU cousins to agree to a process of reforms of EU operations and governance would be the icing on the cake.
Is this wishful thinking? Perhaps a little but, but I'm genuinely struggling to see any benefit - or electoral maths - in any other course.
All that tells me is that you are yet another person who thinks he knows it all but, in practice, is totally out of touch with the bulk of the UK population.If May immediately calls a 2nd ref, she gets to pre-empt a confidence motion (internal or Parliamentary) by saying that the electorate must be consulted as just promised. Anyone trying to pull the rug out from under that risks being tarred with the brush of being scared of the electorate - something they tend not to take too kindly too (the electorate that is).
Whether a 2nd ref or a GE, it will be acrimonious and divisive, as a GE will be a proxy referendum of sorts.
The only peaceful outcome I can envisage right now is no Brexit - yes, there will be those who feel betrayed, but I suspect a surprising number who voted Leave will in fact be a bit relieved. It only needs to be positioned as an attempt to stem the risks and looses of the last 2+ years. If the PM can line up some major announcements of new investment from multinationals and perhaps a "sop" budget then so much the better.
At the same time, a package of electoral reforms wouldn't go amiss. And getting our EU cousins to agree to a process of reforms of EU operations and governance would be the icing on the cake.
Is this wishful thinking? Perhaps a little but, but I'm genuinely struggling to see any benefit - or electoral maths - in any other course.
There are very sound arguments in favour of Brexit. There are very sound arguments in favour of remaining.
My concern is purely practical. Not ideological. I happen to think the best outcome available right now - with the time remaining - is a remain coupled with EU reforms.
As for my saying "I suspect a surprising number who voted Leave will in fact be a bit relieved" that's because, err, I've spoken to a lot of people who voted leave but who have now changed their mind. I make no suggestion they are in the majority, nor even the extent of their numbers. I merely know what I know.
Telling people their opinion and knowledge are wrong is what made the referendum process so intolerable - there was so little rational debate. It would be nice to believe that we could avoid that here.
Helicopter123 said:
48 letters are in.
Operation self destruct still on track.
I cant see her losing the vote though. A small minority might manage 48 letters, but they need 3 times that to remove her from office. Operation self destruct still on track.
And who else would take on the job with any ability to unify the party, unify parliament, and unify the country? Hardline Brexit advocates have no majority, remainers within the Tories have no majority, and while the compromise deal on the table satisfies nobody, it is probably the best thing available.
skwdenyer said:
My concern is purely practical. Not ideological. I happen to think the best outcome available right now - with the time remaining - is a remain coupled with EU reforms.
Are you not concerned that due to the "salami slicing" method that the EU uses to obtains more power, if your concerns become ideological in the future, we'd find ourselves in a position that's even less practical to extricate ourselves from?Remain + reform surely is the Unicorn&Cake Remain. I can't see any hope of reform, what hope do you see?
amusingduck said:
skwdenyer said:
My concern is purely practical. Not ideological. I happen to think the best outcome available right now - with the time remaining - is a remain coupled with EU reforms.
Are you not concerned that due to the "salami slicing" method that the EU uses to obtains more power, if your concerns become ideological in the future, we'd find ourselves in a position that's even less practical to extricate ourselves from?Remain + reform surely is the Unicorn&Cake Remain. I can't see any hope of reform, what hope do you see?
We needed to spend these 2 years working on delivering the outcome (not still being stuck in defining its scope) and getting the country - and its people - turned around to face the challenges of having to compete in the world. We've done none of those things.
Maybe that was May's plan all along (as a Remainer)? Who knows?
YMMV of course. Mine is but one opinion.
The Success of the Tory party has been its pragmatism and its preference for power over ideology, recognising that ideology is impotent without power.
The current bunch of low calibre crackpots infesting the PCP fron top to bottom, appear to have forgotten this - if, indeed, they ever understood it in the first place
The current bunch of low calibre crackpots infesting the PCP fron top to bottom, appear to have forgotten this - if, indeed, they ever understood it in the first place
powerstroke said:
I'm still trying to work out is the tory party? a s
t party with some great people in it or a great party with some st people in it ???
I tend to think of the conservatives as the party for people who've made their money and want to hang on to it. t party with some great people in it or a great party with some st people in it ???What's happening at the moment is that some of the Tory party made ludicrous claims about how wonderful Brexit would be. They are now stuck with a policy that they can't make work, because those original claims were impossible to achieve. But they can't admit that so they're thrashing around looking for someone or something to blame. Anything except admit that they lied to the electorate.
So they will blame May for her negotiations. They will blame the EU for sticking up for its own interests (even though that's exactly what the UK is doing). They will blame remainers for ... something. They will blame foreigners for anything, except they won't blame Putin for influencing the referendum because ... um ... embarrassing.
The ideal world may be where the Tories run the Treasury and MOD but Labour run the NHS and Social Services. And the job of Prime Minister goes to the most able person who doesn't want the job.
ClaphamGT3 said:
The Success of the Tory party has been its pragmatism and its preference for power over ideology, recognising that ideology is impotent without power.
The current bunch of low calibre crackpots infesting the PCP fron top to bottom, appear to have forgotten this - if, indeed, they ever understood it in the first place
I'm not sure I'd agree entirely with your point. The post-Thatcher era was marked by ideological rifts in the tory party, very similar to today. The history of the tories has been only long dispute over which is more important: ideology or power. The current bunch of low calibre crackpots infesting the PCP fron top to bottom, appear to have forgotten this - if, indeed, they ever understood it in the first place
Thatcher ignored ideology.
Churchill fought his election on criticism of the parsimony of the labour government, promising to be something of a spendthrift.
There's always been a battle of ideology in the tories, as with labour. It's what parties do.
Derek Smith said:
I'm not sure I'd agree entirely with your point. The post-Thatcher era was marked by ideological rifts in the tory party, very similar to today. The history of the tories has been only long dispute over which is more important: ideology or power.
Thatcher ignored ideology.
Churchill fought his election on criticism of the parsimony of the labour government, promising to be something of a spendthrift.
There's always been a battle of ideology in the tories, as with labour. It's what parties do.
That is somewhat true, albeit the Tories have been historically more disciplined at letting power assert itself over ideology.Thatcher ignored ideology.
Churchill fought his election on criticism of the parsimony of the labour government, promising to be something of a spendthrift.
There's always been a battle of ideology in the tories, as with labour. It's what parties do.
They have also been massively helped by the fact that British (or certainly English) society has not, historically, been inately socialist in nature.
Whereas every leader of the Labour Party from Hardie to Miliband has had to make a fundemental choice on whether to seek power or remain true to their Socialist ideology, the Tories have had a much easier ride given that the electorate have naturally inclined to the perception of them as a broadly laissez-faire ideology with only light touch government intervention in society.
What is going to be interesting is whetherbthe rise of momentum genuinely betokens a seismic shift in the British political psyche or whether it is just a passing fad
Halb said:
THe english have gone through periods of socialism, most strikingly postwar, when they felt (rightly so) that they were owed something from the dimbles in charge. It comes and goes.
I came from a fairly left-wing extended family, although my parents had no particular politics, something which they bequeathed me. I had an uncle who was in the International Brigade, and volunteered for the Murmansk convoys, being on QP16. One of his jobs in the early part of the war was to lied on the front deck of a coastal tramp and point in the most efficacious direction they should steer to avoid the dive bombers. Who wouldn't worship a bloke who'd done that? He was every bit a hero of mine. His bitterness about what had happened to his family in the 20s stayed with him until his death. He went to sea as a kid just to get fed. Highly intelligent, but little schooling.
He talked politics, although his socialism had taken a hit from Stalin's excesses. He said what had 'turned' him to the left was the inept governments after WWI. It got me interested and I went to the library to look up the history but all I got was sugared myth. Churchill got dumped in the all but post war elections and my uncle was shocked at Churchill's surprise. He said that the didn't understand history of English people, i.e. the plebs of the working class, a dig at his magnum opus, then being heaped with praise.
Inigo Montoya said:
I tend to think of the conservatives as the party for people who've made their money and want to hang on to it.
Compared to Labour, the party for people who want to take money off whomever else who has made their money so they don't have to bother?Yeah, I would agree with you there.
Halb said:
THe english have gone through periods of socialism, most strikingly postwar, when they felt (rightly so) that they were owed something from the dimbles in charge. It comes and goes.
Longish periods of labour Government maybe but, apart from Atlee's post war Govt, how socialist have they really been?ClaphamGT3 said:
Halb said:
THe english have gone through periods of socialism, most strikingly postwar, when they felt (rightly so) that they were owed something from the dimbles in charge. It comes and goes.
Longish periods of labour Government maybe but, apart from Atlee's post war Govt, how socialist have they really been?In it's place is micro management ,nannying ,pessimism and timid policy ....
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