How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 4)
Discussion
Blue62 said:
Why is the report of food shortages if there's no deal 'project fear mk2?'
I hope I'm not being too satirical but you really couldn't make this up. I paraphrase loosely: the head of Waitrose told the papers he was worried that he might have some delays in getting his Reblochon into the Holloway Road supermarket in April next year (which might disrupt one Lady Nugent's nice little dinner parties in N1).
I know, if Waitrose temporarily runs out of smelly cheese, the world absolutely will stop turning on its axis.
The impertinence of Leavers, I ask you!
Helicopter123 said:
There does seem to have been a pick up in 'chatter' from UK govt, overseas govts, business and various institutions about the dangers of a no-deal brexit.
Presumably, even the 'hard-line' brexit types will want to avoid this as well, and a deal of some sort, will get done?
I'd welcome a sensible deal, even a "pragmatic" one with a few sensible concessions, but only if negotiated by somebody competent. That means the current lot need hoofing out. But we'll only get a sensible deal if we show we are prepared to walk away with no deal.Presumably, even the 'hard-line' brexit types will want to avoid this as well, and a deal of some sort, will get done?
sidicks said:
i doubt he's been banned permanently, probably just a 30-day ban which will come to an end soon.
The moderation of this forum is 'inconsistent' to say the least (multiple moderators with different approaches?) - some outrageous things can go unpunished whilst fairly moderate stuff can lead to a (temporary) ban.
Why doesn't help is that often people don't know if someone has been banned, and if so, that is was for.
I'm sure Gloria will be back soon enough.
Do you get banned sidicks? The moderation of this forum is 'inconsistent' to say the least (multiple moderators with different approaches?) - some outrageous things can go unpunished whilst fairly moderate stuff can lead to a (temporary) ban.
Why doesn't help is that often people don't know if someone has been banned, and if so, that is was for.
I'm sure Gloria will be back soon enough.
PurpleMoonlight said:
You think there will be food shortages?
In the event of a 'no deal' (which I personally think is unlikely), I believe that there's every chance that the food chain will suffer severe disruption. We only produce around 6% of the food we consume, everything else is imported with the EU being the main exporter. There's plenty of well researched articles on the issue, if you google Ian Dunt he's published a well informed piece on Politics UK explaining the implications of no deal, that's why contingency plans are underway, I don't see that as scaremongering, just facing up to an obvious truth and being prepared. Blue62 said:
PurpleMoonlight said:
You think there will be food shortages?
In the event of a 'no deal' (which I personally think is unlikely), I believe that there's every chance that the food chain will suffer severe disruption. We only produce around 6% of the food we consume, everything else is imported with the EU being the main exporter. There's plenty of well researched articles on the issue, if you google Ian Dunt he's published a well informed piece on Politics UK explaining the implications of no deal, that's why contingency plans are underway, I don't see that as scaremongering, just facing up to an obvious truth and being prepared. Helicopter123 said:
Blue62 said:
PurpleMoonlight said:
You think there will be food shortages?
In the event of a 'no deal' (which I personally think is unlikely), I believe that there's every chance that the food chain will suffer severe disruption. We only produce around 6% of the food we consume, everything else is imported with the EU being the main exporter. There's plenty of well researched articles on the issue, if you google Ian Dunt he's published a well informed piece on Politics UK explaining the implications of no deal, that's why contingency plans are underway, I don't see that as scaremongering, just facing up to an obvious truth and being prepared. Christmas shopping would look like a holiday in comparison.
Helicopter123 said:
My take on this is that it won't be 'food shortages' that lead to starvation etc. We will be able to substitute anything that we can't import (for a period) with other food stuffs. Things might get a little more expensive too but surely we are not talking about 'bare shelves' are we?
You can guarantee prices will increase if there is a shortage.Ghibli said:
Helicopter123 said:
But this is down to the fall in GBP?
I wonder what will happen to GBP in the event of a no deal Brexit ?What would the BoE do? Presumably they would need to cut rates to support the economy + pump (more) emergency liquidity into the banking sector? This would hammer the currency even further and only stoke inflation.
Blue62 said:
In the event of a 'no deal' (which I personally think is unlikely), I believe that there's every chance that the food chain will suffer severe disruption. We only produce around 6% of the food we consume, everything else is imported with the EU being the main exporter. There's plenty of well researched articles on the issue, if you google Ian Dunt he's published a well informed piece on Politics UK explaining the implications of no deal, that's why contingency plans are underway, I don't see that as scaremongering, just facing up to an obvious truth and being prepared.
It's 60%, not 6%. The majority of what we import from the EU is fresh fruit and vegetables - which is of course seasonal. Because of consumer demand to have a strawberry in November, or a spring onion in Autumn, and to have them less than a week out of the ground, we have to import a lot of produce out of season. The same is true for some meat - if you want lamb in the second half of the year it usually comes in from New Zealand, for example.
At the end of March we'd still be expecting a lot of fresh produce to be coming in from the southern hemisphere, so the impact there won't be quite as sharp as the statistics suggest. We'd have a month or two to "work out the kinks" before it started to become a really big problem in terms of keeping the shelves stocked with tomatoes on the vine.
That's not to say that it wouldn't be prudent to stock up - some pasta, rice, tinned goods, basically anything that can be kept dry and at room temperature - because even though I don't think we'll run out of food I wouldn't be surprised if it became quite a bit pricier as demand and supply shift around.
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