How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 4)

[don'tbesilly]

Helicopter123 said:

T0MMY said:

Jazzy Jag said:

Sorry to piss on your chips, but as people get older and the grow up they tend to see the naivety of their previous political views.

I believe that as a minimum the Leave numbers will remain constant and once shown that the sky didn't fall, planes didn't fall out of the sky and see project fear for what it was, Leave numbers will increase.

You also assume (wrongly in my opinion) that the EU will still be around in a few generations or, given it's path towards ever closer union and it's own army, that the EU will be seen in the same light as you see it today.

Sorry to piss on your chips but we're not talking about naive 18 year olds. From You Gov figures Leave wasn't ahead in the 25-49 category either. What you believe isn't important either, we all live in our own bubbles and in mine, from the people I interact with, remainers are most definitely not softening to Brexit, quite the opposite.

Leavers I know and speak with are in two camps

1. The 'hard brexit' types who want out. They have a religion and will not change their mind.
2. The 'soft brexit' types who voted out but recognise they were lied to and would look again at remaining.

I haven't met a single remainer who has looked at the utter clusterfk of the past two years and now thinks brexit is just what this country needs.

I wouldn't underestimate just how powerful the 'remain' desire is the youngest generation now. The 15/16/17 year olds who didn't get a vote in 2016 would I think be 90% remain.

All anecdotal of course, we can all tell them, we can all spin them, we can all tell untruths.

Anecdotes, not worth sharing in respect of Brexit.

[T0MMY]

Vanden Saab said:

Which big city do you live in?

I don't live in a big city, I just work in an industry with a demographic that leans heavily to remain.

[crankedup]

mx5nut said:

Leave Means Leave rally.

Demographics as expected - looks to be a crowd that have spent the best years of their working lives enjoying the benefits of EU membership and are now lining up to have people make them angry about winning the referendum.

Yes they look really mean and angry

[Vanden Saab]

Helicopter123 said:

Leavers I know and speak with are in two camps

1. The 'hard brexit' types who want out. They have a religion and will not change their mind.
2. The 'soft brexit' types who voted out but recognise they were lied to and would look again at remaining.

I haven't met a single remainer who has looked at the utter clusterfk of the past two years and now thinks brexit is just what this country needs.

I wouldn't underestimate just how powerful the 'remain' desire is the youngest generation now. The 15/16/17 year olds who didn't get a vote in 2016 would I think be 90% remain.

You probably have but as they know your view on Brexit the last thing they would do is tell you... There have been several remainers who have not generally interacted on this thread who have, in the last couple of weeks, posted that if there was another referendum they would now vote leave. I cannot remember a single Leave voter posting the opposite. May be if they read this post they could come in a prove me wrong.

[Murph7355]

T0MMY said:

Sorry to piss on your chips but we're not talking about naive 18 year olds. From You Gov figures Leave wasn't ahead in the 25-49 category either. What you believe isn't important either, we all live in our own bubbles and in mine, from the people I interact with, remainers are most definitely not softening to Brexit, quite the opposite.

You appear to be under the impression that people's political views don't change as they age.

No bubbles are important, including yours and any other demographic split people care to mention by way of justification for things not going their way. The only thing that matters is the result. Your bubble were in the majority. If they'd used all their intelligence and expertise to put forward a good case for the benefits of the EU, they might not be sulking into their souffles right now

[T0MMY]

Jazzy Jag said:

What you believe isn't important either, we all live in our own bubbles and in mine, from the people I interact with, Leavers are most definitely not softening to the EU, quite the opposite.

HTH

That was exactly my point. It's irrelevant to say what either of us think about public opinion from within our bubbles, you'd have to look at reliable polls, if any exist.

[T0MMY]

Murph7355 said:

You appear to be under the impression that people's political views don't change as they age.

No bubbles are important, including yours and any other demographic split people care to mention by way of justification for things not going their way. The only thing that matters is the result. Your bubble were in the majority. If they'd used all their intelligence and expertise to put forward a good case for the benefits of the EU, they might not be sulking into their souffles right now

Well that's actually quite an enlightening little post. How depressing.

[davepoth]

T0MMY said:

That was exactly my point. It's irrelevant to say what either of us think about public opinion from within our bubbles, you'd have to look at reliable polls, if any exist.

Plenty exist, and none are showing any movement in either direction - they're still within the margin of error, just as they were in June 2016.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45520517

It's almost as if all the arguing here has made no difference at all.

[Jazzy Jag]

T0MMY said:

Murph7355 said:

You appear to be under the impression that people's political views don't change as they age.

No bubbles are important, including yours and any other demographic split people care to mention by way of justification for things not going their way. The only thing that matters is the result. Your bubble were in the majority. If they'd used all their intelligence and expertise to put forward a good case for the benefits of the EU, they might not be sulking into their souffles right now

Well that's actually quite an enlightening little post. How depressing that i can't think of a smart arse answer. Going to sulk into my shuffle, now .

FTFY

[don'tbesilly]

T0MMY said:

Murph7355 said:

You appear to be under the impression that people's political views don't change as they age.

No bubbles are important, including yours and any other demographic split people care to mention by way of justification for things not going their way. The only thing that matters is the result. Your bubble were in the majority. If they'd used all their intelligence and expertise to put forward a good case for the benefits of the EU, they might not be sulking into their souffles right now

Well that's actually quite an enlightening little post. How depressing.

I'd imagine for you it was, most Remainers I know are heavily reliant on SSRIs

[Murph7355]

T0MMY said:

Murph7355 said:

You appear to be under the impression that people's political views don't change as they age.

No bubbles are important, including yours and any other demographic split people care to mention by way of justification for things not going their way. The only thing that matters is the result. Your bubble were in the majority. If they'd used all their intelligence and expertise to put forward a good case for the benefits of the EU, they might not be sulking into their souffles right now

Well that's actually quite an enlightening little post. How depressing.

Which bit?

Depressing that people's political views change? Not really, it's just how life changes. Reality gets in the way of idealism. Taxation and fecklessness, amongst other things, get to be more of an issue as you get older, people move right.

The result? Worrying about demographics is pointless. Everyone's vote counts for the same, as it should. The only thing that matters is which way it went. Perhaps demographic split are useful if you want to understand how to approach the topic next time, but tbh nobody I've ever heard discuss the Remain choice seems to be even remotely prepared to do this. And anyway, the ultimate answer is....

...the poor case put forward for remaining? Now that is depressing. After over 40yrs of being part of the collective, and over 20yrs of the EU itself it's hugely depressing that more cogent, positive arguments could not be made for staying part of the club. Almost in and of itself that's a big argument for giving up membership.

[Garvin]

mx5nut said:

Leave Means Leave rally.

Demographics as expected - looks to be a crowd that have spent the best years of their working lives enjoying the benefits of EU membership and are now lining up to have people make them angry about winning the referendum.

If all these people spent “the best years of their working lives enjoying the benefit of EU membership” why on earth do they want to leave the EU?

[Helicopter123]

davepoth said:

Plenty exist, and none are showing any movement in either direction - they're still within the margin of error, just as they were in June 2016.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45520517

It's almost as if all the arguing here has made no difference at all.

That’s a very useful article from a very well respected poster. Pre collapse of chequers it’s neck and neck. With only a hard Brexit on the ballot though, moderates would surely remain this time around.

[andy_s]

davepoth said:

It's almost as if all the arguing here has made no difference at all.

It makes no difference whatsoever; ego, impression, perception, tribalism and instinct are far more deeply ingrained than rational discourse and assessment.

[T0MMY]

Jazzy Jag said:

T0MMY said:

Murph7355 said:

You appear to be under the impression that people's political views don't change as they age.

No bubbles are important, including yours and any other demographic split people care to mention by way of justification for things not going their way. The only thing that matters is the result. Your bubble were in the majority. If they'd used all their intelligence and expertise to put forward a good case for the benefits of the EU, they might not be sulking into their souffles right now

Well that's actually quite an enlightening little post. How depressing that i can't think of a smart arse answer. Going to sulk into my shuffle, now .

FTFY

No, it wasn't that I couldn't think of an answer Jazzy Jag, it was that I was thinking that all I'd done was post an opinion with no strong argument involved, and yet still managed to stir up vitriolic responses like yours.

Murph7355 said:

Which bit?

See above. Take a look at everything I've written on this thread and take a look at some of the responses. We're turning into the fking yanks with such hyper-partisanship that anything you say is taken as an attack.

Edited by T0MMY on Sunday 23 September 10:49

[PurpleMoonlight]

Garvin said:

If all these people spent “the best years of their working lives enjoying the benefit of EU membership” why on earth do they want to leave the EU?

Because they aren't working anymore and would prefer the EU subs went to the NHS to keep them alive?

[Vanden Saab]

T0MMY said:

Vanden Saab said:

It is so unfair most of us were too young to vote in the 1975 referendum and could have spent the last 40 years enjoying all the benefits of being outside the EU. Never mind in 20 or 30 years you can vote to rejoin and all the young people will complain you are ruining their future....

That argument makes no sense whatsoever. The only thing you could argue is that the elderly shouldn't have been able to vote in the 1975 referendum as they weren't going to live through the future they were voting on.

If you actually read what I said by the way, I wasn't actually arguing for the elderly not to get a vote, just pointing out it's pretty galling that by the time we're feeling the effects of Brexit (good or bad) it's quite conceivable, given the demographic split, that the actual surviving voters would have been a Remain majority. If you think being in your 30s and 40s makes you too naive to make decisions about your future then I'll leave you to that viewpoint, can't really argue an opinion but I doubt you really believe it.

You need to understand history a little better, In 1975 unlike now it was younger Labour supporters who were anti-EU the Labour conference voted 2-1 against staying in the EU. It was older people who had lived through WW2 who voted to stay in for obvious reasons. When you realise that almost all the older people who voted leave either voted leave in 1975 and lost or were too young to vote and had to wait for 40 years to get a chance to vote again it might give you cause to understand them better.
We have spent the last 40 years living with the result of a vote we were unable to take part in. Now it is your turn.....

[Jazzy Jag]

Vanden Saab said:

T0MMY said:

Vanden Saab said:

It is so unfair most of us were too young to vote in the 1975 referendum and could have spent the last 40 years enjoying all the benefits of being outside the EU. Never mind in 20 or 30 years you can vote to rejoin and all the young people will complain you are ruining their future....

That argument makes no sense whatsoever. The only thing you could argue is that the elderly shouldn't have been able to vote in the 1975 referendum as they weren't going to live through the future they were voting on.

If you actually read what I said by the way, I wasn't actually arguing for the elderly not to get a vote, just pointing out it's pretty galling that by the time we're feeling the effects of Brexit (good or bad) it's quite conceivable, given the demographic split, that the actual surviving voters would have been a Remain majority. If you think being in your 30s and 40s makes you too naive to make decisions about your future then I'll leave you to that viewpoint, can't really argue an opinion but I doubt you really believe it.

You need to understand history a little better, In 1975 unlike now it was younger Labour supporters who were anti-EU the Labour conference voted 2-1 against staying in the EU. It was older people who had lived through WW2 who voted to stay in for obvious reasons. When you realise that almost all the older people who voted leave either voted leave in 1975 and lost or were too young to vote and had to wait for 40 years to get a chance to vote again it might give you cause to understand them better.
We have spent the last 40 years living with the result of a vote we were unable to take part in. Now it is your turn.....

That older generation have had 40years of living the EU utopian dream on which to base an informed decision.

16 year olds know nothing about the real world.

[Helicopter123]

PurpleMoonlight said:

Garvin said:

If all these people spent “the best years of their working lives enjoying the benefit of EU membership” why on earth do they want to leave the EU?

Because they aren't working anymore and would prefer the EU subs went to the NHS to keep them alive?

Maybe they have gone along to find out when the £350m a week for the NHS will be arriving?

[T0MMY]

Vanden Saab said:

You need to understand history a little better, In 1975 unlike now it was younger Labour supporters who were anti-EU the Labour conference voted 2-1 against staying in the EU. It was older people who had lived through WW2 who voted to stay in for obvious reasons. When you realise that almost all the older people who voted leave either voted leave in 1975 and lost or were too young to vote and had to wait for 40 years to get a chance to vote again it might give you cause to understand them better.
We have spent the last 40 years living with the result of a vote we were unable to take part in. Now it is your turn.....

Do you have a source for the break down of demographics you describe? From a quick google I only found this http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/07/31/the-refer... which suggests the youngest demo still supported the EEC.