How far will house prices fall [volume 5]
Discussion
Thankyou4calling said:
ashleyman said:
I get the maths, I'm just saying in regards to the actual build quality and the experiences I've had with tradesmen friends working on the builds. Why would you get a floor layer in to do a job someone else could do. I think he also mentioned about fitting a lift shaft. Probably because they're cheaper yes, but then a floor layer fitting a lift or some plumbing, dodgy!
With these big companies with lots of parts and people, every little helps. Volkswagen stopped including the ISOFIX covers in new cars, 4 per vehicle, 1 million cars a year produced at 5p a pop is £4 mil.
Do you get the maths?With these big companies with lots of parts and people, every little helps. Volkswagen stopped including the ISOFIX covers in new cars, 4 per vehicle, 1 million cars a year produced at 5p a pop is £4 mil.
4 x 5p is 20p.
A million times that is £200,000 not £4 million.
All the little things add up to saved money which = more profits.
loafer123 said:
Croutons said:
Lord.Vader said:
I could (and would) retire on £950k up here and I'm only 30.
Curious as to how that would work in practice- your house 300k, broad brush assumption you buy two+ mor wiith the remainder of cash and rent them out? Which would obviously give you the job of managing property, which isn't guaranted cash or retiring- it's swapping the job you currently do for a different type of (self) employment. Or is there another way to drag 950k out over potentially 60 years?
Croutons said:
loafer123 said:
Croutons said:
Lord.Vader said:
I could (and would) retire on £950k up here and I'm only 30.
Curious as to how that would work in practice- your house 300k, broad brush assumption you buy two+ mor wiith the remainder of cash and rent them out? Which would obviously give you the job of managing property, which isn't guaranted cash or retiring- it's swapping the job you currently do for a different type of (self) employment. Or is there another way to drag 950k out over potentially 60 years?
Croutons said:
Pretty miserable way to spend up to 60 years though, and if there no growth it's gone age 50. Yes I've heard of FIRE. It is not the panacea. It's presumptuous in the extreme.
It’s entirely possible. I made some big changes 5 years ago when I turned 40. Decent job, 2nd home in the country etc, but began hating the job. An opportunity arose to leave and I grabbed it. Never looked back. Now live in the 2nd home full time and rent out the one in the south east. I live on a fraction of the income I used to have but am the happiest I’ve ever been. I have time, I can do whatever I like. Beautiful day again today, going to take the dog for a long walk up in the mountains. It costs nothing but can’t think of anything I’d rather do.troika said:
It’s entirely possible. I made some big changes 5 years ago when I turned 40. Decent job, 2nd home in the country etc, but began hating the job. An opportunity arose to leave and I grabbed it. Never looked back. Now live in the 2nd home full time and rent out the one in the south east. I live on a fraction of the income I used to have but am the happiest I’ve ever been. I have time, I can do whatever I like. Beautiful day again today, going to take the dog for a long walk up in the mountains. It costs nothing but can’t think of anything I’d rather do.
Very good post as lots would change places with you im betting FocusRS3 said:
troika said:
It’s entirely possible. I made some big changes 5 years ago when I turned 40. Decent job, 2nd home in the country etc, but began hating the job. An opportunity arose to leave and I grabbed it. Never looked back. Now live in the 2nd home full time and rent out the one in the south east. I live on a fraction of the income I used to have but am the happiest I’ve ever been. I have time, I can do whatever I like. Beautiful day again today, going to take the dog for a long walk up in the mountains. It costs nothing but can’t think of anything I’d rather do.
Very good post as lots would change places with you im betting It's nice to know that this type of lifestyle is still possible in other parts of the country. Unfortunately, that might not be the case for much longer.
kingston12 said:
Indeed. The value system has become very distorted by the housing bubble in the SE. A lot of people I know couldn't consider living on anything like the average wage, but in reality most of the extra just goes on paying back a massive mortgage and the other 'essentials' that are required to live a reasonable life.
It's nice to know that this type of lifestyle is still possible in other parts of the country. Unfortunately, that might not be the case for much longer.
All depends on many circumstances including situations where people suddenly have no income and have to readjust. It's nice to know that this type of lifestyle is still possible in other parts of the country. Unfortunately, that might not be the case for much longer.
anonymous said:
[redacted]
That's why I don't think it will remain possible (or at least as easy) for people who haven't done their time in the SE first to live comfortably in these other areas in the future.There doesn't seem to have been much rebalancing so far, but perhaps that will come.
I have met quite a few people who I would have thought would be the type to retire to coast/countryside who have stayed in commuterland, and in some cases they are still there because the future increase in their house price wouldn't be replicated if they move elsewhere.
Now that prices have been flat for a while, I wonder how many of that type will look again at moving, especially if they think that their preferred area will provide better price growth than SE.
kingston12 said:
That's why I don't think it will remain possible (or at least as easy) for people who haven't done their time in the SE first to live comfortably in these other areas in the future.
There doesn't seem to have been much rebalancing so far, but perhaps that will come.
I have met quite a few people who I would have thought would be the type to retire to coast/countryside who have stayed in commuterland, and in some cases they are still there because the future increase in their house price wouldn't be replicated if they move elsewhere.
Now that prices have been flat for a while, I wonder how many of that type will look again at moving, especially if they think that their preferred area will provide better price growth than SE.
Well you can always rent out your house in the ‘high growth’ area while renting elsewhere if where you want to live and where the property market is growing are different...There doesn't seem to have been much rebalancing so far, but perhaps that will come.
I have met quite a few people who I would have thought would be the type to retire to coast/countryside who have stayed in commuterland, and in some cases they are still there because the future increase in their house price wouldn't be replicated if they move elsewhere.
Now that prices have been flat for a while, I wonder how many of that type will look again at moving, especially if they think that their preferred area will provide better price growth than SE.
The other option for an early retirement is to spend the winter months living in a nice but cheap area outside of the UK ( such as SE Asia... many places you can rent and live comfortably for around 1000-1200 pounds per month (all in )
A modest UK pension plus rental income from UK house can go a long way outside of the U.K.
lots of options ...
A modest UK pension plus rental income from UK house can go a long way outside of the U.K.
lots of options ...
kingston12 said:
That's why I don't think it will remain possible (or at least as easy) for people who haven't done their time in the SE first to live comfortably in these other areas in the future.
There doesn't seem to have been much rebalancing so far, but perhaps that will come.
I have met quite a few people who I would have thought would be the type to retire to coast/countryside who have stayed in commuterland, and in some cases they are still there because the future increase in their house price wouldn't be replicated if they move elsewhere.
Now that prices have been flat for a while, I wonder how many of that type will look again at moving, especially if they think that their preferred area will provide better price growth than SE.
Bought a small flat 3yrs ago on the coast to enjoy and a future retirement home for the wife and I.There doesn't seem to have been much rebalancing so far, but perhaps that will come.
I have met quite a few people who I would have thought would be the type to retire to coast/countryside who have stayed in commuterland, and in some cases they are still there because the future increase in their house price wouldn't be replicated if they move elsewhere.
Now that prices have been flat for a while, I wonder how many of that type will look again at moving, especially if they think that their preferred area will provide better price growth than SE.
I live in the SE and will do for a while yet but when kids have gone we will bolt to the beach.
By comparison the flat since purchase has risen 15% and in the same period the house has devalued by roughly the same.
I won’t need too much when I have the sun and a good beach to enjoy .
That’s the plan anyway and the wife is onboard with it too .
Thinking we are 10yrs away from being there full time all being well
Edited by FocusRS3 on Wednesday 27th February 11:21
Integroo said:
soupdragon1 said:
Lord.Vader said:
Up here (N.Wales on the border) they are selling rather well, anything between 125k-200k is flying, many people now asking daft prices (250k+) for average 3/4 bed homes at circa 1250-1500 sq ft.
Still a few bargains to be had if you are willing to put some work in, anything with a decent garden (or plot size) seems to have a premium above what it is worth, as if the extension / development is already priced in.
I picked up a bargain at 2000+ sq ft, 4/5 bed, 2/3 reception rooms, garage and probably half an acre backing onto a national park for a smidge over £300k, 15 mins to work
tired, but an original 1930's (mostly) so lovely high ceiling, etc; I reckon around the M25 you would be looking at 950k+!
I could (and would) retire on £950k up here and I'm only 30.
Interesting to hear all of your perspective down in / around London and the SE, adds a perspective of how lucky we are up here!
Similar situation in NI.Still a few bargains to be had if you are willing to put some work in, anything with a decent garden (or plot size) seems to have a premium above what it is worth, as if the extension / development is already priced in.
I picked up a bargain at 2000+ sq ft, 4/5 bed, 2/3 reception rooms, garage and probably half an acre backing onto a national park for a smidge over £300k, 15 mins to work
tired, but an original 1930's (mostly) so lovely high ceiling, etc; I reckon around the M25 you would be looking at 950k+!I could (and would) retire on £950k up here and I'm only 30.
Interesting to hear all of your perspective down in / around London and the SE, adds a perspective of how lucky we are up here!
However, I earn a third of what I do in Edinburgh than I will in London.
It's all relative.
1 bed studio Vs massive detached with a garage ... not a difficult choice, even if i tripled my salary, which i did do living in the city in Germany and no way would i go back, money isn't everything, happy, home early, nice house, nice car, stunning location
, works for me!I posted this in the Brexit House Prices thread over in Finance forum, where I learned of this thread's longevity.
Perhaps it's relevant here as my view on the SE and Devon.....
......................................................
I'm near Chichester West Sussex and watch the market like a hawk.
The number of places that I am seeing reduced (and not just the once) is getting higher and higher. I'm talking about all price points too - from £240K to 7 figures.
It used to be rare to see a place reduced on Rightmove, but now it's almost as though people don't bother until a place has been reduced.
Been watching one such place that started July '18 at £295,000 with a well-regarded agent, not a Cowboy.
I thought, "no way, not at the moment- that's worth £250K to me but someone will have it for £275,000"
Then it's 289,950, £275,000, £269,950, and now Guided at £250,000.
I honestly think it would have flown at £299,000 two years ago - identical places have done just that - it's there for all to see.
Went to look at it last week - elderly lady off-loading here BTL portfolio apparently and moving to Devon.
Needs decoration from top to bottom and new kitchen / bathroom / Carpets....
I'll prolly offer £235K....
Even if it makes £250K - that's 16-17% down from peak, which is what the worst case for house prices was supposed to be....
As you say - already priced in....
On to Devon then - I have a place down there tiny 2-bed apartment by the sea in South Hams, bought 04/17.
Remortgaged it earlier this month and was astonished to learn that the mortgage Co, who are notoriously glass half empty, think it's gone up by more than 20%
I knew I bought well, and the apartment above sold in 4 days for £10K over asking in September last year.
London and the SE is well-and-truly on it's arse, Devon and as another poster said a while back Dorset, is in rude health....
Perhaps it's relevant here as my view on the SE and Devon.....
......................................................
I'm near Chichester West Sussex and watch the market like a hawk.
The number of places that I am seeing reduced (and not just the once) is getting higher and higher. I'm talking about all price points too - from £240K to 7 figures.
It used to be rare to see a place reduced on Rightmove, but now it's almost as though people don't bother until a place has been reduced.
Been watching one such place that started July '18 at £295,000 with a well-regarded agent, not a Cowboy.
I thought, "no way, not at the moment- that's worth £250K to me but someone will have it for £275,000"
Then it's 289,950, £275,000, £269,950, and now Guided at £250,000.
I honestly think it would have flown at £299,000 two years ago - identical places have done just that - it's there for all to see.
Went to look at it last week - elderly lady off-loading here BTL portfolio apparently and moving to Devon.
Needs decoration from top to bottom and new kitchen / bathroom / Carpets....
I'll prolly offer £235K....
Even if it makes £250K - that's 16-17% down from peak, which is what the worst case for house prices was supposed to be....
As you say - already priced in....
On to Devon then - I have a place down there tiny 2-bed apartment by the sea in South Hams, bought 04/17.
Remortgaged it earlier this month and was astonished to learn that the mortgage Co, who are notoriously glass half empty, think it's gone up by more than 20%
I knew I bought well, and the apartment above sold in 4 days for £10K over asking in September last year.
London and the SE is well-and-truly on it's arse, Devon and as another poster said a while back Dorset, is in rude health....
I remember discussions I was having back in 2002/03 about house prices being "unaffordable" - we had high(ish) interest rates but lax lending etc. Then we had post 2008, when we had QE etc. continuing to support prices. Anyway, no need to re-hash all of this...
I sit here now, thinking just what I did in 2002/03 - that prices can't surely go up from here in real terms?! The difference is that now I know I'm missing something: is there going to be a paradigm shift in the housing market? or will we just see a gradual erosion of real prices over 10 years or so?
I sit here now, thinking just what I did in 2002/03 - that prices can't surely go up from here in real terms?! The difference is that now I know I'm missing something: is there going to be a paradigm shift in the housing market? or will we just see a gradual erosion of real prices over 10 years or so?
number2 said:
I remember discussions I was having back in 2002/03 about house prices being "unaffordable" - we had high(ish) interest rates but lax lending etc. Then we had post 2008, when we had QE etc. continuing to support prices. Anyway, no need to re-hash all of this...
I sit here now, thinking just what I did in 2002/03 - that prices can't surely go up from here in real terms?! The difference is that now I know I'm missing something: is there going to be a paradigm shift in the housing market? or will we just see a gradual erosion of real prices over 10 years or so?
Its an interesting one but i can see prices eroding over time is my view. I sit here now, thinking just what I did in 2002/03 - that prices can't surely go up from here in real terms?! The difference is that now I know I'm missing something: is there going to be a paradigm shift in the housing market? or will we just see a gradual erosion of real prices over 10 years or so?
Base Rates between 2002 and 2004 were between 4-4.75% so real lending rates would have been what 6%? Quite a difference to where they are now and i cant see rates going negative.
My view is the age demographic that have ridden this last wave are wanting out and there are lots of them so slow erosion rather than collapse i think is likely.
Just my view of course
number2 said:
I remember discussions I was having back in 2002/03 about house prices being "unaffordable" - we had high(ish) interest rates but lax lending etc. Then we had post 2008, when we had QE etc. continuing to support prices. Anyway, no need to re-hash all of this...
I sit here now, thinking just what I did in 2002/03 - that prices can't surely go up from here in real terms?! The difference is that now I know I'm missing something: is there going to be a paradigm shift in the housing market? or will we just see a gradual erosion of real prices over 10 years or so?
I'd say that gradual erosion is most likely, but even that has to be carefully managed - removing the fiscal props like 'emergency' interest rates and HTB could cause a much quicker reaction.I sit here now, thinking just what I did in 2002/03 - that prices can't surely go up from here in real terms?! The difference is that now I know I'm missing something: is there going to be a paradigm shift in the housing market? or will we just see a gradual erosion of real prices over 10 years or so?
There will probably be more of an emergence of a two step market as well - one where asking prices stay flat or move down slowly with nothing selling, and the other where those who really want to sell (Death, Debt, Divorce) do so at a big percentage 'discount' to the other market.
kingston12 said:
I'd say that gradual erosion is most likely, but even that has to be carefully managed - removing the fiscal props like 'emergency' interest rates and HTB could cause a much quicker reaction.
There will probably be more of an emergence of a two step market as well - one where asking prices stay flat or move down slowly with nothing selling, and the other where those who really want to sell (Death, Debt, Divorce) do so at a big percentage 'discount' to the other market.
Even if overall averages are flat, for an individual it must also depend at what level, perhaps relative to the local area, you're looking at. Seems like there's still plenty of entry level demand.There will probably be more of an emergence of a two step market as well - one where asking prices stay flat or move down slowly with nothing selling, and the other where those who really want to sell (Death, Debt, Divorce) do so at a big percentage 'discount' to the other market.
Edited by Sheepshanks on Thursday 28th February 12:41
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