How far will house prices fall [volume 5]
Discussion
It's a purpose built 1 bed. We prices based on the EA valuation- which I thought was over priced given the situation, but not that over priced.
I reckon another 50k drop will be warranted, and we will probably just keep it in that case. There's not that much left on the mortgage - only 90k.
Current price is over 800/sq ft just about.
I reckon another 50k drop will be warranted, and we will probably just keep it in that case. There's not that much left on the mortgage - only 90k.
Current price is over 800/sq ft just about.
Edited by vonuber on Saturday 11th August 12:54
hyphen said:
Viewings?
5 so far over about 5 months. People day it's really nice but then don't put an offer in.We're giving it another month then back to rent- it was going to help us by a new house for the kids but we might have to just plan without.
Problem is also trying to sell the one we are in now.
Two interesting pieces.
1) ACAData HPI report http://www.acadata.co.uk/LSL%20Acadata%20E&W%2...
Prices down again but a modest -0.2% (national average) on last month, the fifth drop in a row. The annual price growth of 1.6% is below the rate of inflation.
Prices are down in 2/3 of London (compared to last year). Hammersmith and Fulham are down over 10% in one year.
2) There was also discussion on the impact of base rate increases, this has an interesting number https://www.propertywire.com/news/uk/plans-move-ho... i.e 25% of people decided not to move based on that increase.
Anecdotally - One of my friends mentioned that their interest only mortgage went up £200/month following that change.
1) ACAData HPI report http://www.acadata.co.uk/LSL%20Acadata%20E&W%2...
Prices down again but a modest -0.2% (national average) on last month, the fifth drop in a row. The annual price growth of 1.6% is below the rate of inflation.
Prices are down in 2/3 of London (compared to last year). Hammersmith and Fulham are down over 10% in one year.
2) There was also discussion on the impact of base rate increases, this has an interesting number https://www.propertywire.com/news/uk/plans-move-ho... i.e 25% of people decided not to move based on that increase.
Anecdotally - One of my friends mentioned that their interest only mortgage went up £200/month following that change.
Edited by V6Alfisti on Tuesday 14th August 19:07
V6Alfisti said:
Anecdotally - One of my friends mentioned that their interest only mortgage went up £200/month following that change.
As we know the hike was 25 ticks, appart from helping us calculate your mates mortgage balance (about £1m), or estimate their household income as circa £250k, I'm not sure what else we can draw from this.Edit as Tonka beat me to it.
fido said:
That's one f6ck of a mortgage. Even if it's their main outgoing and they live The Good Life. How do they sleep at night knowing they owe that much .. unless their jobs are really secure or they have BoMaD as guarantor?
Might be a small fraction of their borrowing potential? 
gibbon said:
As we know the hike was 25 ticks, appart from helping us calculate your mates mortgage balance (about £1m), or estimate their household income as circa £250k, I'm not sure what else we can draw from this.
Edit as Tonka beat me to it.
There are a few things to draw from this but admittedly I didn't paint the full picture.Edit as Tonka beat me to it.
They have not 'worked' in years and it was bought as part of a family development company (but most of the time they just did random charity work for a few hours a week) although this was about the time that prices in the area stopped growing and then they didnt have the cashflow to develop it, it wouldn't surprise me if it was a self certify situation situation as they certainly don't have the cash to cover it and perhaps used their BTL portfolio to obtain the loan.
So the drawing of points. The first being that quite a few folk have banked on rising house prices and actually do not have the salary to compensate from any deviation from this, the second and main point being that folk who have bought within their means may not be greatly impacted by a 0.25% rise, there are seemingly a large number of interest only mortgages and those who have pushed the bounds of affordability...to the point where a tiny rise like that can add £2.4k / annum onto a mortgage! Surprisingly but not a tiny minority based on my own knowledge of developers/friends enterprises.
This was certainly the case for an old landlord of mine that owns a house in maida and a flat just outside somewhere, lives in a dingy (think a slight batty cat lady) basement flat at the bottom of the house, no investment in renovations and once came up to tell me her tale of woe. Basically admitted to having a very friendly mortgage advisor, a rather generous/fictitious salary given to secure a loan. Still holding onto the property despite living very close to the poverty line but with probably over a £1m of rented out property that just about breaks even. Defies logic.
Oh and that then reminds me of an electrician who told me there was a common way of tricking the mortgage companies into accepting fake salaries, I wish I remembered the conversation fully to share but he was going all in somewhere near Clapham about 2 years ago.
This is also a nice overview of Societe General global strategists view on the market http://www.propertyindustryeye.com/uk-housing-mark...
dom9 said:
Think we'll have an offer accepted on a place tomorrow... Gulp!
Much reduced from when it was on before (a year or so back?) and dare I say it - reasonably priced...
Might need to check out of this thread
Congrats, keeping in general as appreciate you probably don't want to share specific details.Much reduced from when it was on before (a year or so back?) and dare I say it - reasonably priced...
Might need to check out of this thread
What was it on for a year ago, what was the asking price and where do you think it will land?
London?
We had our place valued today at +15-20% from May 2016. The most recent sales prices reflect that and nice spec property selling within a couple of weeks (Harborne, Birmingham). Agent says demand is incredibly high at the moment with some of that being London folk moving up for work, or now working from home and going into the big smoke a couple of days a week.
Not expecting that to continue but shows how there are markets within markets, performing very differently.
Not expecting that to continue but shows how there are markets within markets, performing very differently.
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-house-...
+0.4% MoM Nationwide
-0.6% MoM London
The change in volumes is staggering
Sales volumes by London borough
London borough (First Number) April 2018, (Second Number) April 2017, % Difference (Third number)
Barking and Dagenham 102 125 -18.4%
Barnet 220 293 -24.9%
Bexley 221 238 -7.1%
Brent 110 176 -37.5%
Bromley 307 330 -7.0%
Camden 108 177 -39.0%
City of London 11 20 -45.0%
City of Westminster 147 254 -42.1%
Croydon 241 408 -40.9%
Ealing 148 195 -24.1%
Enfield 152 214 -29.0%
Greenwich 180 234 -23.1%
Hackney 116 172 -32.6%
Hammersmith and Fulham 106 184 -42.4%
Haringey 113 124 -8.9%
Harrow 120 149 -19.5%
Havering 214 254 -15.7%
Hillingdon 201 234 -14.1%
Hounslow 137 199 -31.2%
Islington 108 127 -15.0%
Kensington And Chelsea 98 124 -21.0%
Kingston upon Thames 111 133 -16.5%
Lambeth 198 288 -31.3%
Lewisham 193 262 -26.3%
Merton 140 200 -30.0%
Newham 123 358 -65.6%
Redbridge 175 191 -8.4%
Richmond upon Thames 171 199 -14.1%
Southwark 168 246 -31.7%
Sutton 155 211 -26.5%
Tower Hamlets 133 268 -50.4%
Waltham Forest 163 177 -7.9%
Wandsworth 270 356 -24.2%
+0.4% MoM Nationwide
-0.6% MoM London
The change in volumes is staggering
Sales volumes by London borough
London borough (First Number) April 2018, (Second Number) April 2017, % Difference (Third number)
Barking and Dagenham 102 125 -18.4%
Barnet 220 293 -24.9%
Bexley 221 238 -7.1%
Brent 110 176 -37.5%
Bromley 307 330 -7.0%
Camden 108 177 -39.0%
City of London 11 20 -45.0%
City of Westminster 147 254 -42.1%
Croydon 241 408 -40.9%
Ealing 148 195 -24.1%
Enfield 152 214 -29.0%
Greenwich 180 234 -23.1%
Hackney 116 172 -32.6%
Hammersmith and Fulham 106 184 -42.4%
Haringey 113 124 -8.9%
Harrow 120 149 -19.5%
Havering 214 254 -15.7%
Hillingdon 201 234 -14.1%
Hounslow 137 199 -31.2%
Islington 108 127 -15.0%
Kensington And Chelsea 98 124 -21.0%
Kingston upon Thames 111 133 -16.5%
Lambeth 198 288 -31.3%
Lewisham 193 262 -26.3%
Merton 140 200 -30.0%
Newham 123 358 -65.6%
Redbridge 175 191 -8.4%
Richmond upon Thames 171 199 -14.1%
Southwark 168 246 -31.7%
Sutton 155 211 -26.5%
Tower Hamlets 133 268 -50.4%
Waltham Forest 163 177 -7.9%
Wandsworth 270 356 -24.2%
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