How far will house prices fall [volume 5]

[okgo]

okgo said:

I've bookmarked 36 properties that I' consider viewing, and they've all come on in the last 3 or so weeks, so looks ok out there in that sense. Some fairly well priced too - that said I am considering quite a large area.

I've also noted that quite a bit has shifted in the areas I'm looking at. Listed the flat I'm in currently last week and have a second viewing today for a couple who appear keen, hopefully it all goes swimmingly...

Our flat went on market 8 days ago at what I thought was a punchy asking price, but its gone under offer at asking..

[wisbech]

rufusgti said:

I'm noticing a bit of an interesting market in Cardiff. Maybe someone could help explain.

I can't really be bothered posting links but my wife keeps a close eye on what she wants next, and also what houses like ours are asking and selling at. Ours is a 1940's or 50's semi, ex local authority street, still a few local authority houses scattered around. Not rough, not particularly pretty either. Just one of those estates where aesthetics were not really considered. Although slowly over the years driveways and front gardens get improved and smartened up and it has a big impact.
These houses seem to sell very fast. For good money. We are talking 200 to 220k in the last 6 months. Large increases year on year it seems, we payed 110k in 2012, allbeit for a repossession.

The house she wants. 1930's semi detached. Larger gardens, front gardens, driveways and garages. 2 reception rooms and usually bay fronted. Prettier properties in much nicer although very near locations. These have been stagnant at the approx 300k mark for what seems like about 3 years.

It's fantastic for us as the gap is closing on the cost of the next jump. But I just wonder why this is happening. One idea is that Cardiff is really growing at an extraordinary rate. New estates are being thrown up at every end. The new build properties are eye wateringly expensive too. I spotted a 4 bed detached with garage advertised "from" 540k. And they're right out of town. A good 20 minutes if you wanted to drive into Cardiff. But perhaps the well to do's are moving out to these causing a glut of nice traditional homes to hot the market, so only the best sell.

What are the usual reasons for the lower end of the market doing better than the mid range properties in what should be more desirable areas.

Just intrigued as to where this could be going.

I must admit to feeling the urge to move up when I heard of further cuts to interest rates. I've bought 3 properties and really hugely benefitted from low Interest rates since 2009. I did think it could not go on forever, but i'm being proven wrong really.

My guess would be income related. Presumably there are plenty of couples who can stretch to 200-220 k, with combined salary of 50k or so. But supply of couples that earn 50% more, so can afford a house 50% more expensive, is limited.

[JagLover]

wisbech said:

rufusgti said:

I'm noticing a bit of an interesting market in Cardiff. Maybe someone could help explain.

I can't really be bothered posting links but my wife keeps a close eye on what she wants next, and also what houses like ours are asking and selling at. Ours is a 1940's or 50's semi, ex local authority street, still a few local authority houses scattered around. Not rough, not particularly pretty either. Just one of those estates where aesthetics were not really considered. Although slowly over the years driveways and front gardens get improved and smartened up and it has a big impact.
These houses seem to sell very fast. For good money. We are talking 200 to 220k in the last 6 months. Large increases year on year it seems, we payed 110k in 2012, allbeit for a repossession.

The house she wants. 1930's semi detached. Larger gardens, front gardens, driveways and garages. 2 reception rooms and usually bay fronted. Prettier properties in much nicer although very near locations. These have been stagnant at the approx 300k mark for what seems like about 3 years.

It's fantastic for us as the gap is closing on the cost of the next jump. But I just wonder why this is happening. One idea is that Cardiff is really growing at an extraordinary rate. New estates are being thrown up at every end. The new build properties are eye wateringly expensive too. I spotted a 4 bed detached with garage advertised "from" 540k. And they're right out of town. A good 20 minutes if you wanted to drive into Cardiff. But perhaps the well to do's are moving out to these causing a glut of nice traditional homes to hot the market, so only the best sell.

What are the usual reasons for the lower end of the market doing better than the mid range properties in what should be more desirable areas.

Just intrigued as to where this could be going.

I must admit to feeling the urge to move up when I heard of further cuts to interest rates. I've bought 3 properties and really hugely benefitted from low Interest rates since 2009. I did think it could not go on forever, but i'm being proven wrong really.

My guess would be income related. Presumably there are plenty of couples who can stretch to 200-220 k, with combined salary of 50k or so. But supply of couples that earn 50% more, so can afford a house 50% more expensive, is limited.

Probably part of the answer.

Around here it is a bit different with basic houses with enough space to live in around £250k and then a big price jump to four bed detached houses in the same area. Not being detached is also probably a large factor in the pricing of those 1930s semi-detached houses. Modern living creates a lot of noise and vibration and people are willing to pay a large premium to avoid the risk of being kept awake by their neighbours.

[HustleRussell]

What do people think of Brighton and Hove? I thought 2 and 3 bed houses in the Deans and Portslade looked broadly reasonable, but my friend who moved into Bevendean thinks that prices have gone mad since she moved in a year and a bit ago.

[HoHoHo]

HustleRussell said:

What do people think of Brighton and Hove? I thought 2 and 3 bed houses in the Deans and Portslade looked broadly reasonable, but my friend who moved into Bevendean thinks that prices have gone mad since she moved in a year and a bit ago.

Can't comment on B & H but I live in West Chiltington, a village not too far from that part of the world.

We've moved last September and in the final three months of 22 months of trying to move the house we wanted was reduced by 15% and then we got a bit more off the asking price.

Since then and looking at Right Move anything that hasn't adjusted the asking price is still on the market and those that have sold are because owners have realised the market is difficult for a 7 figure house and if you want to sell you need to be realistic. The days of Londoners coming down to this part of the world and paying silly money for large houses (and thus creating an artificial price bubble) are currently long gone.

I would imagine the buyers in the Brighton area are slightly different and it's always been a bit pricey. Portslade is a bit cheaper than Brighton simply because of it's location (the Shoreham incinerator tower is a lovely sight I hear on a sunny day )

[stongle]

Very Dovish signals coming our of BOE, chance of an end of Jan rate cut coming. lat time, 2 members of the MPC voted for one, Carney is increasingly making Dovish noises so we might see a swing (although I think Jan is tad too soon).

Make money cheaper, like curry to a pisshead (and it's a GBP9trillion "UK" asset the powers that be are keen to protect).

[Burwood]

stongle said:

Very Dovish signals coming our of BOE, chance of an end of Jan rate cut coming. lat time, 2 members of the MPC voted for one, Carney is increasingly making Dovish noises so we might see a swing (although I think Jan is tad too soon).

Make money cheaper, like curry to a pisshead (and it's a GBP9trillion "UK" asset the powers that be are keen to protect).

Even if there is a rate cut you won't see much if anything come off mortgage rates, maybe 10 bps. There gets a point where the real cost of funding doesn't change given to pass most of it on means a deposit rate cut which in turn causes a flight into other assets.

[Earthdweller]

wisbech said:

rufusgti said:

I'm noticing a bit of an interesting market in Cardiff. Maybe someone could help explain.

I can't really be bothered posting links but my wife keeps a close eye on what she wants next, and also what houses like ours are asking and selling at. Ours is a 1940's or 50's semi, ex local authority street, still a few local authority houses scattered around. Not rough, not particularly pretty either. Just one of those estates where aesthetics were not really considered. Although slowly over the years driveways and front gardens get improved and smartened up and it has a big impact.
These houses seem to sell very fast. For good money. We are talking 200 to 220k in the last 6 months. Large increases year on year it seems, we payed 110k in 2012, allbeit for a repossession.

The house she wants. 1930's semi detached. Larger gardens, front gardens, driveways and garages. 2 reception rooms and usually bay fronted. Prettier properties in much nicer although very near locations. These have been stagnant at the approx 300k mark for what seems like about 3 years.

It's fantastic for us as the gap is closing on the cost of the next jump. But I just wonder why this is happening. One idea is that Cardiff is really growing at an extraordinary rate. New estates are being thrown up at every end. The new build properties are eye wateringly expensive too. I spotted a 4 bed detached with garage advertised "from" 540k. And they're right out of town. A good 20 minutes if you wanted to drive into Cardiff. But perhaps the well to do's are moving out to these causing a glut of nice traditional homes to hot the market, so only the best sell.

What are the usual reasons for the lower end of the market doing better than the mid range properties in what should be more desirable areas.

Just intrigued as to where this could be going.

I must admit to feeling the urge to move up when I heard of further cuts to interest rates. I've bought 3 properties and really hugely benefitted from low Interest rates since 2009. I did think it could not go on forever, but i'm being proven wrong really.

My guess would be income related. Presumably there are plenty of couples who can stretch to 200-220 k, with combined salary of 50k or so. But supply of couples that earn 50% more, so can afford a house 50% more expensive, is limited.

Where I’m from in Lancashire the lower end traditional housing sells very well upto say 150- 200k

Above that you are into new build territory where developers are throwing incentives at buyers including px, cash back, discounts etc

If you are trying to sell an older ( even modern ) house above that level it can be a struggle as competing against developers and new builds is not a level playing field

As mentioned wages are much lower and first time buyers are often restricted as to what they can afford

Having just sold a 4 bed detached (built 2002) in a very good area in the 300+ bracket it was clear that the competition was all new builds, most buyers seemed to want the shiny new blank canvas

Ours was helped with brand new bathrooms and high end kitchen and being considerably bigger than most new build 4 beds ( 2000s/ft) but we also redecorated and fitted all new carpets throughout but it was a tough sell as all over the area are new “executive estates” All competing with each other and the existing stock

Edited by Earthdweller on Tuesday 14th January 10:31

[stongle]

Burwood said:

stongle said:

Very Dovish signals coming our of BOE, chance of an end of Jan rate cut coming. lat time, 2 members of the MPC voted for one, Carney is increasingly making Dovish noises so we might see a swing (although I think Jan is tad too soon).

Make money cheaper, like curry to a pisshead (and it's a GBP9trillion "UK" asset the powers that be are keen to protect).

Even if there is a rate cut you won't see much if anything come off mortgage rates, maybe 10 bps. There gets a point where the real cost of funding doesn't change given to pass most of it on means a deposit rate cut which in turn causes a flight into other assets.

Yes, there is a transmission loss - but it's all about mood music and sentiment… It's a clear signal "we" are going to support an asset bubble (that is required given the construct of the UK economy for last 2 decades - trade poor wage inflation for leverage). This is a statement of IS NOT my opinion on how it should be working.

There is an interesting dichotomy between how the US / UK economy responds to monetary stimulus than the EU. Arguably the stimulus in US/UK economies HAS been a success and done what it says “on the tin” – how far you can kick that is debatable. It puts banks under increasing pressure as Net Interest Margin collapses (so low margin competition really hurts new players such as Tesco whom offloaded their Mortgage book – as they make risker loans to generate returns).

I think we will see a reality where asset prices are stabilised (on the whole) – but we will continually see micro regional swings (down to street level).

And we follow the Fed.

[Sheepshanks]

rufusgti said:

I
It's fantastic for us as the gap is closing on the cost of the next jump. But I just wonder why this is happening. One idea is that Cardiff is really growing at an extraordinary rate. New estates are being thrown up at every end. The new build properties are eye wateringly expensive too. I spotted a 4 bed detached with garage advertised "from" 540k. And they're right out of town. A good 20 minutes if you wanted to drive into Cardiff.

Sweeping generalisation, but normally people get slaughtered for years if they need to sell one of those properties.

[anonymous-user]

Sheepshanks said:

rufusgti said:

I
It's fantastic for us as the gap is closing on the cost of the next jump. But I just wonder why this is happening. One idea is that Cardiff is really growing at an extraordinary rate. New estates are being thrown up at every end. The new build properties are eye wateringly expensive too. I spotted a 4 bed detached with garage advertised "from" 540k. And they're right out of town. A good 20 minutes if you wanted to drive into Cardiff.

Sweeping generalisation, but normally people get slaughtered for years if they need to sell one of those properties.

Agreed, someone I know bought a new build and a year later had to sell it due to divorce. They just assumed it had gone up in value, however you could still buy the same house brand new around the corner for the price they paid so they ended up selling at a significant loss.

Wanting to buy a new build seems to be a millennial thing, as this is all they are interested in buying at my work. I try and explain that they would be better off buying an older house due to build quality, decent garden, proper fenced off drive, lack of communal spaces that nobody cares about, no affordable houses, room sizes etc. but it all falls on deaf ears.

Their standard reply is "No, <insert house builder name> are not like that, they are built properly. Plus they are beautiful, everything is done and you can move straight in". None of them want to even think about lifting a paintbrush, and as we all know when they decide it is time to decorate they will literally start painting with no masking or removing light switches, sockets or radiators and the whole thing will look an awful mess.

Come back to me in five years time when the affordable houses people have left washing machines in the front garden, all the houses have older children with four cars per household and nowhere to park them, the communal areas are all covered in weeds and nobody cuts the grass, the outside of your rendered house has the paint peeling and looks a state, you can hear everything due to the plasterboard walls and your floors and stair squeeks are driving you insane.

[rufusgti]

Earthdweller said:

wisbech said:

rufusgti said:

I'm noticing a bit of an interesting market in Cardiff. Maybe someone could help explain.

I can't really be bothered posting links but my wife keeps a close eye on what she wants next, and also what houses like ours are asking and selling at. Ours is a 1940's or 50's semi, ex local authority street, still a few local authority houses scattered around. Not rough, not particularly pretty either. Just one of those estates where aesthetics were not really considered. Although slowly over the years driveways and front gardens get improved and smartened up and it has a big impact.
These houses seem to sell very fast. For good money. We are talking 200 to 220k in the last 6 months. Large increases year on year it seems, we payed 110k in 2012, allbeit for a repossession.

The house she wants. 1930's semi detached. Larger gardens, front gardens, driveways and garages. 2 reception rooms and usually bay fronted. Prettier properties in much nicer although very near locations. These have been stagnant at the approx 300k mark for what seems like about 3 years.

It's fantastic for us as the gap is closing on the cost of the next jump. But I just wonder why this is happening. One idea is that Cardiff is really growing at an extraordinary rate. New estates are being thrown up at every end. The new build properties are eye wateringly expensive too. I spotted a 4 bed detached with garage advertised "from" 540k. And they're right out of town. A good 20 minutes if you wanted to drive into Cardiff. But perhaps the well to do's are moving out to these causing a glut of nice traditional homes to hot the market, so only the best sell.

What are the usual reasons for the lower end of the market doing better than the mid range properties in what should be more desirable areas.

Just intrigued as to where this could be going.

I must admit to feeling the urge to move up when I heard of further cuts to interest rates. I've bought 3 properties and really hugely benefitted from low Interest rates since 2009. I did think it could not go on forever, but i'm being proven wrong really.

My guess would be income related. Presumably there are plenty of couples who can stretch to 200-220 k, with combined salary of 50k or so. But supply of couples that earn 50% more, so can afford a house 50% more expensive, is limited.

Where I’m from in Lancashire the lower end traditional housing sells very well upto say 150- 200k

Above that you are into new build territory where developers are throwing incentives at buyers including px, cash back, discounts etc

If you are trying to sell an older ( even modern ) house above that level it can be a struggle as competing against developers and new builds is not a level playing field

As mentioned wages are much lower and first time buyers are often restricted as to what they can afford

Having just sold a 4 bed detached (built 2002) in a very good area in the 300+ bracket it was clear that the competition was all new builds, most buyers seemed to want the shiny new blank canvas

Ours was helped with brand new bathrooms and high end kitchen and being considerably bigger than most new build 4 beds ( 2000s/ft) but we also redecorated and fitted all new carpets throughout but it was a tough sell as all over the area are new “executive estates” All competing with each other and the existing stock

Edited by Earthdweller on Tuesday 14th January 10:31

Thanks for all the replies to my questions. I think you're right. It makes sense what with all the new builds flying up. 40,000 homes in 10 years was the aim. I'm not sure if that's on target. Amazing it doesn't have more of an effect on prices.

[anonymous-user]

Thanks I’d almost managed to forget the 5 years of my life I lost to housepricecrash.co.uk

[okgo]

Of the 30 properties I've shortlisted over the last couple of weeks, nearly a 3rd are now under offer. All around £1m in SW London, seems things are moving quick...

[anonymous-user]

Sambucket said:

Thanks I’d almost managed to forget the 5 years of my life I lost to housepricecrash.co.uk

I used to use that site around 2003, and I must admit their arguments at the time were very convincing to the point where I started thinking about selling and going into rented. I seem to remember there was a story on London Tonight with the smug founders of the site in around 2004 where they had sold up in London, so convinced the market was going to fall and they would buy back in. That went well for them.......

https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?...

But there are people on that site who have been renting for 15 years, waiting for the inevitable house crash. They have been renting all that time, terrified to buy because they have waited so long for the inevitable. It's a cult, people brainwashed into putting their life on hold because they have been convinced prices are going to fall 50% and people will be begging them to buy their houses. All the while convincing themselves that renting over the last 15 years has been cheaper than owning a house anyway.

Any posts by new members have to be vetted first, and if you say anything remotely against the cult of housepricecrash you account is deleted.

[rufusgti]

Joey Deacon said:

Sambucket said:

Thanks I’d almost managed to forget the 5 years of my life I lost to housepricecrash.co.uk

I used to use that site around 2003, and I must admit their arguments at the time were very convincing to the point where I started thinking about selling and going into rented. I seem to remember there was a story on London Tonight with the smug founders of the site in around 2004 where they had sold up in London, so convinced the market was going to fall and they would buy back in. That went well for them.......

https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?...

But there are people on that site who have been renting for 15 years, waiting for the inevitable house crash. They have been renting all that time, terrified to buy because they have waited so long for the inevitable. It's a cult, people brainwashed into putting their life on hold because they have been convinced prices are going to fall 50% and people will be begging them to buy their houses. All the while convincing themselves that renting over the last 15 years has been cheaper than owning a house anyway.

Any posts by new members have to be vetted first, and if you say anything remotely against the cult of housepricecrash you account is deleted.

Another here who used to frequent HPC, embarrassingly so. I still pop my head in once every 18 months or so. I believed everything I read at the time, just a shame I ever stumbled upon it. It probably didn't hold me back a great deal and did make me cautious when I did buy, which has paid off in different ways over the years. The people who were posting back in 2010 are still on there now in a lot of cases.

[Bullet-Proof_Biscuit]

princeperch said:

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...

Some complete chancers out there atm.

I'm not sure it's even possible to fit a desk in the study.

Is it very stabby in E7? I think the quality of old brick housing stock means those areas will get better with time as they get bought up and renovated, mainly by those wise enough to avoid a Share to Buy and mandatory base model German lease car..

Perhaps it started live out as something like this;

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...

What a time to be alive..

[kingston12]

Joey Deacon said:

I used to use that site around 2003, and I must admit their arguments at the time were very convincing to the point where I started thinking about selling and going into rented. I seem to remember there was a story on London Tonight with the smug founders of the site in around 2004 where they had sold up in London, so convinced the market was going to fall and they would buy back in. That went well for them.......

https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?...

But there are people on that site who have been renting for 15 years, waiting for the inevitable house crash. They have been renting all that time, terrified to buy because they have waited so long for the inevitable. It's a cult, people brainwashed into putting their life on hold because they have been convinced prices are going to fall 50% and people will be begging them to buy their houses. All the while convincing themselves that renting over the last 15 years has been cheaper than owning a house anyway.

Any posts by new members have to be vetted first, and if you say anything remotely against the cult of housepricecrash you account is deleted.

I remember going on there around that time. There was a lot of sense spoken in the early days, I thought, but the problem was it was all based on history constantly repeating itself.

The 'credit crunch' could have resulted in a real crash in house prices rather than the ripple that we actually saw. It didn't because we got unprecedented levels of quantative easing and have now had near-zero interest rates for 12 years and counting. That has been followed by the Help To Buy scheme and other similar measures. There was always the option that the government would do something like that, but it didn't seem to be accepted as a possibility on that site at all.

The thing that really amazes me is that the site still exists and that they still think that a mega-crash is just around the corner. If the Government didn't let it play out in 2007, why would they do so now when prices are much higher and the damage to the economy would be even greater?

[scenario8]

Bullet-Proof_Biscuit said:

princeperch said:

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...

Some complete chancers out there atm.

I'm not sure it's even possible to fit a desk in the study.

Is it very stabby in E7? I think the quality of old brick housing stock means those areas will get better with time as they get bought up and renovated, mainly by those wise enough to avoid a Share to Buy and mandatory base model German lease car..

Perhaps it started live out as something like this;

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...

What a time to be alive..

A bit cheeky to count the cellar in the sq ft count - but it’s not small at circa 125 sq m and looks nice enough in the pictures. Very close to transport links. Flat roofs limit further development.

BUT...I bet it doesn’t feel quite so nice in the viewings. Wonder what the garden looks like right now? Looks like they did the minimum as it is and that was months ago. Come on vendor, you’ve been on the market at least four months, possibly more with another agent for all I know. If you’re after top money, and not getting it, how about you reconsider not bothering with curtains or blinds and reconsider hiring or even buying furniture and soft furnishings. Maybe dressing the place? How sterile is that bathroom? How much money is it costing you for each month you don’t get your investment back?

Everyone’s a critic.

[dai1983]

rufusgti said:

I'm noticing a bit of an interesting market in Cardiff. Maybe someone could help explain.

I can't really be bothered posting links but my wife keeps a close eye on what she wants next, and also what houses like ours are asking and selling at. Ours is a 1940's or 50's semi, ex local authority street, still a few local authority houses scattered around. Not rough, not particularly pretty either. Just one of those estates where aesthetics were not really considered. Although slowly over the years driveways and front gardens get improved and smartened up and it has a big impact.
These houses seem to sell very fast. For good money. We are talking 200 to 220k in the last 6 months. Large increases year on year it seems, we payed 110k in 2012, allbeit for a repossession.

The house she wants. 1930's semi detached. Larger gardens, front gardens, driveways and garages. 2 reception rooms and usually bay fronted. Prettier properties in much nicer although very near locations. These have been stagnant at the approx 300k mark for what seems like about 3 years.

It's fantastic for us as the gap is closing on the cost of the next jump. But I just wonder why this is happening. One idea is that Cardiff is really growing at an extraordinary rate. New estates are being thrown up at every end. The new build properties are eye wateringly expensive too. I spotted a 4 bed detached with garage advertised "from" 540k. And they're right out of town. A good 20 minutes if you wanted to drive into Cardiff. But perhaps the well to do's are moving out to these causing a glut of nice traditional homes to hot the market, so only the best sell.

What are the usual reasons for the lower end of the market doing better than the mid range properties in what should be more desirable areas.

Just intrigued as to where this could be going.

I must admit to feeling the urge to move up when I heard of further cuts to interest rates. I've bought 3 properties and really hugely benefitted from low Interest rates since 2009. I did think it could not go on forever, but i'm being proven wrong really.

We have a 1930s semi as you describe in England but know which type you mean in Cardiff.I love it but if I’m honest I wish we had a bit more living space inside especially the kitchen and pokey 3rd bedroom when we have guests. We could extend and similar houses I’ve seen with this done are amazing. It’d cost us a fair sum though, I’d loose access to the set back garage and come the spring we start living outside in the substantial garden anyway.

Newer houses have pokey gardens but far better indoor living space. Maybe that’s what’s keeping prices of the 1930s houses low?