How far will house prices fall [volume 5]

[matrignano]

gibbon said:

I would not try to negotiate before a set of survey results, but even then, be prepared for the seller to tell you to poke it. I would not mention your depleted stock portfolio, that has nothing to do with the seller, and so is of no relevance to the situation other than a frustration / some back luck / a lesson for you.

It comes down to your perception of the value of the property, and part of that is emotional, and some of it time related, like it or not you are time and emotion invested in this already, its not just a purely financial decision.

Rate cuts of 50bp this morning, and musings of further cuts. I would imagine the seller will feel confident.

Yes spot on, won't do or say anything until the survey. But if that shows tens of thousands of work required, I don't see why I wouldn't bid down.
if its just the gutters that need clearing and the walls repainted, clearly that will weaken/void my position.

And obviously I won't ever mention my money issues...

[NickCQ]

gibbon said:

What a horrible attitude, particularly from someone who works in the business. I have only sold one house, but have bought three, i would never do this, and if at all possible i would make an example of the person trying to do it to me and walk away straight away.

Gentlemanly capitalism only really works with counterparties with whom you transact more than once. Making a decision to teach "someone a lesson" is noble but really a dumb idea when the stakes are so high.

As ever, assess your relative negotiating leverage and act accordingly...

[z4RRSchris]

156651 said:

If you're willing for the seller to tell you to FO and withdraw.

and lose legals money, time, remarketing, finding another buyer, if the valuation is downval thats on record now, agent pressure etc.

always worth a try. if they tell you no then you agree as planned.

[z4RRSchris]

NickCQ said:

gibbon said:

What a horrible attitude, particularly from someone who works in the business. I have only sold one house, but have bought three, i would never do this, and if at all possible i would make an example of the person trying to do it to me and walk away straight away.

Gentlemanly capitalism only really works with counterparties with whom you transact more than once. Making a decision to teach "someone a lesson" is noble but really a dumb idea when the stakes are so high.

As ever, assess your relative negotiating leverage and act accordingly...

exactly, i exchanged on £88m of flats last night, but the cards were in my hands as i had SDLT risk coming. i was fully ready for every one of them to try it on and chip.

[gibbon]

NickCQ said:

Gentlemanly capitalism only really works with counterparties with whom you transact more than once. Making a decision to teach "someone a lesson" is noble but really a dumb idea when the stakes are so high.

As ever, assess your relative negotiating leverage and act accordingly...

Hence the 'if at all possible'.

I would also say, it does, or should if you have any morals, depend on your counterparty, Mr and Mrs Jones who you've spent some time with on your several viewings of their family home they are selling after 30 years due to a dicky hip and the desire to help the grandkids get a better start in life, or a mass developer trying to eek cash from government help to buy schemes whilst providing the minimal support to the local infrastructure they are now adding stress to.

Extreme examples, but buying a property is an experience that can vary hugely depending on who you are buying from.

[156651]

z4RRSchris said:

and lose legals money, time, remarketing, finding another buyer, if the valuation is downval thats on record now, agent pressure etc.

always worth a try. if they tell you no then you agree as planned.

They might find it sufficiently annoying to tell you to FRO anyway - and then you would be out legals, survey, time etc. and they would find another buyer. And if they do proceed, probably leave the house in a state and take all the lightbulbs and whatever else to be particularly annoying.

Perhaps your problem is presuming everyone is a rational actor.

[Sheepshanks]

z4RRSchris said:

exactly, i exchanged on £88m of flats last night, but the cards were in my hands as i had SDLT risk coming. i was fully ready for every one of them to try it on and chip.

Are the buyers "pro" investors? In business, buyers nearly always try and chip the price of everything at the last minute, same as anyone would do when buying a car. It's a bit odd if they don't.

[okgo]

156651 said:

They might find it sufficiently annoying to tell you to FRO anyway - and then you would be out legals, survey, time etc. and they would find another buyer. And if they do proceed, probably leave the house in a state and take all the lightbulbs and whatever else to be particularly annoying.

Perhaps your problem is presuming everyone is a rational actor.

Generally they are.

But of course having bought one house you'll know better

[156651]

okgo said:

Generally they are.

But of course having bought one house you'll know better

I know very little, of that I have no doubt. We would have very much liked to knock a few grand off the purchase price of the house on exchange day, but why take that risk, for the sake of a few grand on a mortgage of multiple hundreds of thousands of pounds? We were definitely in a less strong position than the vendor - (apparently) had multiple offers, no mortgage, less upfront expenses to lose if it all fell apart. Though obviously their purchase might have fallen through. It's difficult, just don't see the point in making it even more stressful for a relatively small sum of cash.

[soupdragon1]

gibbon said:

Rate cuts of 50bp this morning, and musings of further cuts.

Thats 0.5% for those of us that prefer to use normal language

[NickCQ]

soupdragon1 said:

Thats 0.5% for those of us that prefer to use normal confusing language

0.75% to 0.25% is a reduction of 66% (or 50 bps )

[156651]

2% stamp duty for foreign buyers, no other stamp duty changes

[z4RRSchris]

156651 said:

2% stamp duty for foreign buyers, no other stamp duty changes

April 2021 too, i stayed up all night for nothing.

[Helicopter123]

The amount of liquidity being launched into the real economy is quite impressive.

More than enough to give the housing market a significant boost, if we can all avoid turning into Zombies.

[711]

z4RRSchris said:

April 2021 too, i stayed up all night for nothing.

I assume this will result in temporarily reduced buying pressure from foreign buyers?

[soxboy]

711 said:

I assume this will result in temporarily reduced buying pressure from foreign buyers?

I doubt it will have much of an impact. As I understand it foreign buyers are buying in the UK 'because UK' and not in consideration with alternate options in other nations, therefore we (UK plc) may as well put measures in place both to capitalise on the demand and to show that steps are being taken as 'something must be done a it's pricing FTBs out of the market'.

[WCZ]

z4RRSchris said:

dont put your house deposit, which you know you need, into shares, which are highly volatile.

Sheepshanks said:

errr...you might want to revisit the definition of 'savings'.

well it's a little late for that now by the sounds of it. have some compassion - losing £20k even if it's on paper feels horrible.

[gibbon]

2% will make no difference long term to foreign investment, the FX swings will be way more. At the big money end of the scale its a currency / political / lifestyle hedge.

[hutchst]

Will that apply to the English buying up hooses in Scotland?

[alfaman]

gibbon said:

2% will make no difference long term to foreign investment, the FX swings will be way more. At the big money end of the scale its a currency / political / lifestyle hedge.

Needs to be an additional 15-20% like in Singapore to dampen demand. And done retrospectively. To avoid another bubble