How far will house prices fall [volume 5]

[FocusRS3]

FocusRS3 said:

As much as my wife tries to convince me about this house she wants all that's going round my head-
Brexit
Getting a bad deal
Transaction costs
A labour government
Wealth Tax
Land Tax
A weaker currency
and no doubt more I just cant remember at present.

It's not adding up to me.....

And now the highest inflation numbers in 6 months.....

[alfaman]

wisbech said:

Shnozz said:

Nor me.

Thankfully I do not have a wife.

Husbands, while arguably better at interior design, can be just as difficult

PMSL

[FocusRS3]

Hmmm , May didn't say much really but certainly nothing positive. Wondering what will happen now with prices

[NickCQ]

FocusRS3 said:

And now the highest inflation numbers in 6 months.....

Interesting one, I suppose house prices in theory should keep pace with inflation whilst inflation reduces real interest rates.
However that relies on wages keeping up with inflation, which may not be the case in a bad Brexit scenario.

[FocusRS3]

NickCQ said:

Interesting one, I suppose house prices in theory should keep pace with inflation whilst inflation reduces real interest rates.
However that relies on wages keeping up with inflation, which may not be the case in a bad Brexit scenario.

Yeah, this is unchartered waters with Brexit. Could we have Stagflation ?

[mike74]

FocusRS3 said:

Hmmm , May didn't say much really but certainly nothing positive. Wondering what will happen now with prices

''They'' will continue to prop up house prices and protect the over leveraged debt junkies no matter what and regardless of the impact on the wider economy.

A no deal Brexit will give Carney just the excuse he needs to fire up the printing presses and magic up that £750b that Hammond has already given him permission for, as well as dropping IR's back down.

What impact do you think that will have on house prices?

Edited by mike74 on Friday 21st September 17:39

[Shnozz]

It’s more the effect on Sterling :-(

But then devaluing the currency means more foreign buyers further assisting in house price inflation as well as U.K. inflation paying its part in asset price increases.

[FocusRS3]

mike74 said:

''They'' will continue to prop up house prices and protect the over leveraged debt junkies no matter what and regardless of the impact on the wider economy.

A no deal Brexit will give Carney just the excuse he needs to fire up the printing presses and magic up that £750b that Hammond has already given him permission for, as well as dropping IR's back down.

What impact do you think that will have on house prices?

Edited by mike74 on Friday 21st September 17:39

More QE maybe but with higher inflation and a falling pound rates will not be coming down .

I’d say a rate rise is almost a given for feb next year .

So what affect do you think that will have on house prices ?

[mike74]

FocusRS3 said:

More QE maybe but with higher inflation and a falling pound rates will not be coming down .

I’d say a rate rise is almost a given for feb next year .

So what affect do you think that will have on house prices ?

Carney couldn't care less about trashing the pound.

He also has the ability to ''look through'' rising inflation (i.e. ignore it)

The debt junkies seem to also have the ability to ignore inflation and just take on more debt to afford st (including houses)

And even if they do put IR's up another notch, more QE (especially £750b worth of QE) will more than negate that.... We all know where just about every penny of previous QE has ended up don't we?

The recent tiny rises in IR's haven't fed through to mortgage rates so far with new deals as cheap as ever.

Edited by mike74 on Saturday 22 September 05:19

[princeperch]

a friend is looking at a 1 bed in this well known development next to shoreditch high st stn.

out of curiosity I took a peek at what they sold for in 2014 and what they sold for thereafter.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/E1-6GR.ht...

pretty staggering - people were making 100-200k just for buying in early 2014 and selling 7 months later that year.

the flat he has been keeping an eye on is priced just under 1k a sq ft and looks (fair enough) value for what it is.

I expect the service charge will be eye watering. but if youre going to be making 100k for doing fk all every year or so- who cares?

[FocusRS3]

princeperch said:

a friend is looking at a 1 bed in this well known development next to shoreditch high st stn.

out of curiosity I took a peek at what they sold for in 2014 and what they sold for thereafter.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/E1-6GR.ht...

pretty staggering - people were making 100-200k just for buying in early 2014 and selling 7 months later that year.

the flat he has been keeping an eye on is priced just under 1k a sq ft and looks (fair enough) value for what it is.

I expect the service charge will be eye watering. but if youre going to be making 100k for doing fk all every year or so- who cares?

Making a fast 100k isn't guaranteed and id not want to be holding the baby when it turns sour, which it is starting to do.

[z4RRSchris]

didnt see that there was vol 5!

im back.

[dom9]

Welcome back...

Reckon we're days away from exchange on our new place now - gulp!

[FocusRS3]

dom9 said:

Welcome back...

Reckon we're days away from exchange on our new place now - gulp!

I've exchanged now just over a week away from completion and cant wait to move out after over 20yrs at the same gaff.

[p1stonhead]

Central Kingston (on the face of it unless there is a back story) is apparently taking some big hits.

[okgo]

p1stonhead said:

Central Kingston (on the face of it unless there is a back story) is apparently taking some big hits.

Would seem about right. They're also looking pretty dated and shabby. That and the other flats that have sprung up everywhere probably mean the market is pretty awash with them vs when that was built. From memory of being an EA in that area 10 years ago Charter Q and Royal Q were the only two concierge type places in the town center, there's loads now.

[FocusRS3]

p1stonhead said:

Central Kingston (on the face of it unless there is a back story) is apparently taking some big hits.

Most areas in and around London are affected.

I've noticed some selling locally but with some hefty price adjustments.

[kingston12]

okgo said:

p1stonhead said:

Central Kingston (on the face of it unless there is a back story) is apparently taking some big hits.

Would seem about right. They're also looking pretty dated and shabby. That and the other flats that have sprung up everywhere probably mean the market is pretty awash with them vs when that was built. From memory of being an EA in that area 10 years ago Charter Q and Royal Q were the only two concierge type places in the town center, there's loads now.

Yep, these were always going to be a bad buy. They were totally out of step with what as going on in the rest of the market at the time.

I remember going to look at one of the show flats when they first went up. It was a big flat, but about £750k which was a LOT of money to spend in Kingston at that time. They are probably about £1m now which is a small increase when compared to the rest of the market.

The whole new build flat revolution in Kingston has made a lot of money for developers, but hasn't really worked as there aren't that many people who want to live in that type of accommodation in the suburbs, at least for the current costs (both to buy and service charge)

If you walk around the back of the large 'sail' type building in Canbury Gardens you can tell that a lot of the flats in the adjoining blocks have been sublet to the council or housing associations. That clearly wasn't the plan when they were built as there was a lot of criticism of the council for letting the developer get away with a near-zero affordable housing element let alone council/HA.

[scenario8]

And there are hundreds if not thousands more units on their way. I appreciate we’re raking over old ground by discussing “posh” flats in Kingston. I didn’t really “get” them when the first developments went up all those years ago and here we are all this time on with thousands of the bloomin’ things. At least the older ones were bang on the river. Some of the more recent ones, while modern and thus flush with exciting fashionable items - alongside the also fashionable extortionate service charge contracts hold such little appeal. Especially for their headline prices.

54 sq m - £630,000.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...

I’m sure better/worse examples exist.

[FocusRS3]

scenario8 said:

And there are hundreds if not thousands more units on their way. I appreciate we’re raking over old ground by discussing “posh” flats in Kingston. I didn’t really “get” them when the first developments went up all those years ago and here we are all this time on with thousands of the bloomin’ things. At least the older ones were bang on the river. Some of the more recent ones, while modern and thus flush with exciting fashionable items - alongside the also fashionable extortionate service charge contracts hold such little appeal. Especially for their headline prices.

54 sq m - £630,000.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...

I’m sure better/worse examples exist.

To me that's a very easy way to lose money but wadda I know.....