How far will house prices fall [volume 5]

How far will house prices fall [volume 5]

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Discussion

stuckmojo

2,117 posts

145 months

Sunday 9th August
quotequote all
rival38 said:
It sells for the 100% most recent ask price.
It also sells for 90% of original ask price.

The market price of the houseis now didcovered.
This. But because, unless you have a listings tracker, the original asking is not officially recorded, the Land Registry will only pick up the sale vs previous sale.

There are tools to use on Rightmove to see this and also some Twitter Account @propertylion who track this.

Edited: It's https://twitter.com/UkPropertyLion

Edited by stuckmojo on Sunday 9th August 18:42

soxboy

3,698 posts

176 months

Sunday 9th August
quotequote all
Speaking to head of an estate agency company this morning, they’ve got their highest pipeline in terms of stuff in solicitors hands since 2007. He’s got no idea how long it’ll last for though!

Turfy

1,016 posts

138 months

Monday 10th August
quotequote all
soxboy said:
Speaking to head of an estate agency company this morning, they’ve got their highest pipeline in terms of stuff in solicitors hands since 2007. He’s got no idea how long it’ll last for though!
It is clear to me that this is a 6-12 month backlog of people who wanted to move but BREXIT and COVID-19 got in the way. If you limit (or stop completely!!) and supply of goods that are in demand, once you open the tap again there will be a bigger than usual flurry of activity.

Nowhere recently have I seen anyone of repute confidently predict NO global recession; property is directly affected by the recession.



loafer123

10,739 posts

172 months

Monday 10th August
quotequote all
Turfy said:
It is clear to me that this is a 6-12 month backlog of people who wanted to move but BREXIT and COVID-19 got in the way. If you limit (or stop completely!!) and supply of goods that are in demand, once you open the tap again there will be a bigger than usual flurry of activity.

Nowhere recently have I seen anyone of repute confidently predict NO global recession; property is directly affected by the recession.
I think that's true, but there are a couple of other factors.

Those who are employed have more to spend due to savings in going out and commuting, increasing affordability of mortgage payments.

Secondly, people have spent more time at home and therefore home is likely to have increased in priority as an expense.


1974nc

1,342 posts

119 months

Monday 10th August
quotequote all
I’ve been watching house prices intently as me and my partner are considering moving in together.
Prices had been stagnant for some time in South Yorkshire however I’ve noticed some London type pricing emerging which prompts me to check back in the last sold register.

Some are asking over double their last purchase price from 5 years ago while having done either little improvement, none at all or in some cases making it worse than the last sold photos.

It makes me extremely wary and out of the affordability boundary of buying a house that in my opinion should be worth about 250k based on watching the market for over 12 months and now it’s up for 425k!

loafer123

10,739 posts

172 months

Monday 10th August
quotequote all
1974nc said:
I’ve been watching house prices intently as me and my partner are considering moving in together.
Prices had been stagnant for some time in South Yorkshire however I’ve noticed some London type pricing emerging which prompts me to check back in the last sold register.

Some are asking over double their last purchase price from 5 years ago while having done either little improvement, none at all or in some cases making it worse than the last sold photos.

It makes me extremely wary and out of the affordability boundary of buying a house that in my opinion should be worth about 250k based on watching the market for over 12 months and now it’s up for 425k!
Many people vociferously disagree, but as a property person, I always compare on a price per square foot basis, as it helps to even out the price analysis.

The example I give is that I lived in a square in London and four houses, including mine, looked the same but were in fact radically different in size due to different rear extensions.

Leicester Loyal

2,215 posts

79 months

Monday 10th August
quotequote all
Leicester Loyal said:
Offered full asking price on a property yesterday morning, it was accepted yesterday afternoon. Nervous but excited at the same time.
An update to this.

I had the mortgage valuators go round last week, they said the property isn't worth full asking price, but 10k less. My position is a FTB and I am ready to go as soon as the paperwork is sorted etc. Deposit and my agreement in principle was done, all the needed paperwork for the full mortgage was sent off. I spoke to the estate agents, explain the situation and she said she's not sure why it's been valued below, it's definitely worth the full asking price, wanted to speak to the surveyor and said she had evidence of it being worth more than what they valued it at. I said we'll need to renegotiate on the price in light of this new evidence (I didn't even want 10k off, I was more than willing to meet in the middle). She rang me back not long after saying that the vendors don't seem too keen to lower the price at all. This all happened on Friday.

Come Saturday morning, I wake up to a text from the estate agent, with a recommendation of another mortgage advisor, saying mine has given me bad advice (he hasn't he's been excellent throughout) and put me with a poor choice of lender. Once I told her I didn't want to use a different advisor, she replied 'well you can't be bothered about the house then can you? I'll remarket the property then shall i?', which is quite frankly the most unprofessional thing I've ever heard. Her mortgage advisor just so happened to live in the same small town as her, so I'm assuming they're friends or regularly do business together.

After this I said if you have comparable evidence to suggest it's worth 10k more (like she said she had), then please present that to the valuator and I'm sure they will reconsider the valuation, to which the estate agent replied 'that's not my job, get your mortgage advisor to do it', because I'm going to press my mortgage advisor to force me to pay 10k more?

Very weird situation and I'm not at all happy with the way she's spoken to me nor gone about her business. She's self employed, which is probably for the best with those people skills. I've let her ponder on it, so see if she eventually comes back to me, if not I'll be starting the house hunt all over again.

gibbon

2,075 posts

164 months

Monday 10th August
quotequote all
Leicester Loyal said:
An update to this.

I had the mortgage valuators go round last week, they said the property isn't worth full asking price, but 10k less. My position is a FTB and I am ready to go as soon as the paperwork is sorted etc. Deposit and my agreement in principle was done, all the needed paperwork for the full mortgage was sent off. I spoke to the estate agents, explain the situation and she said she's not sure why it's been valued below, it's definitely worth the full asking price, wanted to speak to the surveyor and said she had evidence of it being worth more than what they valued it at. I said we'll need to renegotiate on the price in light of this new evidence (I didn't even want 10k off, I was more than willing to meet in the middle). She rang me back not long after saying that the vendors don't seem too keen to lower the price at all. This all happened on Friday.

Come Saturday morning, I wake up to a text from the estate agent, with a recommendation of another mortgage advisor, saying mine has given me bad advice (he hasn't he's been excellent throughout) and put me with a poor choice of lender. Once I told her I didn't want to use a different advisor, she replied 'well you can't be bothered about the house then can you? I'll remarket the property then shall i?', which is quite frankly the most unprofessional thing I've ever heard. Her mortgage advisor just so happened to live in the same small town as her, so I'm assuming they're friends or regularly do business together.

After this I said if you have comparable evidence to suggest it's worth 10k more (like she said she had), then please present that to the valuator and I'm sure they will reconsider the valuation, to which the estate agent replied 'that's not my job, get your mortgage advisor to do it', because I'm going to press my mortgage advisor to force me to pay 10k more?

Very weird situation and I'm not at all happy with the way she's spoken to me nor gone about her business. She's self employed, which is probably for the best with those people skills. I've let her ponder on it, so see if she eventually comes back to me, if not I'll be starting the house hunt all over again.
She sounds lovely.

Its down to the underwriter working for the bank, not the mortgage broker.

MattS5

1,522 posts

148 months

Monday 10th August
quotequote all
Are you having to find another £10k to progress as the LTV is marginal ?

If it isn’t the case then if it’s a great house, then don’t be too hasty (albeit depends if it’s £10k extra on £100k or a £300k asking price) with walking away.

princeperch

6,442 posts

204 months

Monday 10th August
quotequote all
Iirc the surveyor has a 5pc tolerance (i.e he shouldn't get the valuation wrong but if he does he can be 5pc out before he can be sued for negligence). So he really must be convinced that the house is worth 10k less than you've offered if he's downvalued it. And if the estate agent actually knows what she's doing she would have given him the comparables before he went over to value it. So I'd be telling the estate agent to get fked if I were you .

red_slr

11,579 posts

146 months

Monday 10th August
quotequote all
I would stick to your guns. Meet them half way. I bet you the house is selling for a considerable sum more than they would have got only a few months ago. Greedy!

Thats why the surveyor wants to bring it down.

loafer123

10,739 posts

172 months

Monday 10th August
quotequote all

It may have been valued by an AVM (Automated Valuation Model) rather than a human being.

If so, you may be able to ask them to review it manually.

711

787 posts

182 months

Monday 10th August
quotequote all
I can confirm the banks are getting very nervous about valuations.

I’ve just had a desktop valuation declined at £1,000 per square foot on a London prime property at 50% LTV!!

It will now take 4 to 6 weeks to get a valuer from the bank panel to do a full valuation.

FFS. Think this one is going to fall through as my offer was only accepted against a competing one on supposed proceedability.

s1962a

2,918 posts

119 months

Monday 10th August
quotequote all
loafer123 said:
It may have been valued by an AVM (Automated Valuation Model) rather than a human being.

If so, you may be able to ask them to review it manually.
I had this on a remortgage of our place back in May. It was just moving to another rate after the original fixed one had expired, and the valuation came back at about £30k less than their valuation 2 years ago, so my LTV moved. Difference then was that they weren’t doing any house visits due to Covid, so I couldn’t challenge the valuation in time for the fixed rate expiring.

NickCQ

2,828 posts

53 months

Monday 10th August
quotequote all
711 said:
Think this one is going to fall through as my offer was only accepted against a competing one on supposed proceedability.
It's going to be the same for the other buyer though (assuming they are real rather than an estate agent's negotiating tactic).

711

787 posts

182 months

Monday 10th August
quotequote all
NickCQ said:
It's going to be the same for the other buyer though (assuming they are real rather than an estate agent's negotiating tactic).
Let’s hope so.
Just bloody frustrating at 50% LTV!

the-photographer

1,808 posts

133 months

Monday 10th August
quotequote all
Mortgage lending is forecast to rise by 2.6%, the slowest increase in five years, as rising unemployment dampens the housing market, EY Item Club said.

UK consumer lending will plummet during 2020, say forecasts

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/aug/10/cons...

AyBee

9,164 posts

159 months

Monday 10th August
quotequote all
Leicester Loyal said:
Leicester Loyal said:
Offered full asking price on a property yesterday morning, it was accepted yesterday afternoon. Nervous but excited at the same time.
An update to this.

I had the mortgage valuators go round last week, they said the property isn't worth full asking price, but 10k less. My position is a FTB and I am ready to go as soon as the paperwork is sorted etc. Deposit and my agreement in principle was done, all the needed paperwork for the full mortgage was sent off. I spoke to the estate agents, explain the situation and she said she's not sure why it's been valued below, it's definitely worth the full asking price, wanted to speak to the surveyor and said she had evidence of it being worth more than what they valued it at. I said we'll need to renegotiate on the price in light of this new evidence (I didn't even want 10k off, I was more than willing to meet in the middle). She rang me back not long after saying that the vendors don't seem too keen to lower the price at all. This all happened on Friday.

Come Saturday morning, I wake up to a text from the estate agent, with a recommendation of another mortgage advisor, saying mine has given me bad advice (he hasn't he's been excellent throughout) and put me with a poor choice of lender. Once I told her I didn't want to use a different advisor, she replied 'well you can't be bothered about the house then can you? I'll remarket the property then shall i?', which is quite frankly the most unprofessional thing I've ever heard. Her mortgage advisor just so happened to live in the same small town as her, so I'm assuming they're friends or regularly do business together.

After this I said if you have comparable evidence to suggest it's worth 10k more (like she said she had), then please present that to the valuator and I'm sure they will reconsider the valuation, to which the estate agent replied 'that's not my job, get your mortgage advisor to do it', because I'm going to press my mortgage advisor to force me to pay 10k more?

Very weird situation and I'm not at all happy with the way she's spoken to me nor gone about her business. She's self employed, which is probably for the best with those people skills. I've let her ponder on it, so see if she eventually comes back to me, if not I'll be starting the house hunt all over again.
Can you pick a different mortgage provider or are you limited by other factors (LTV, etc)? If I thought it was worth what I was paying, I'd be at least trying to show the EA that I've tried to get around the issue from my end first. Doesn't excuse the EA though - surely she wants the sale to go through rather than to re-market at this stage?

z4RRSchris

9,496 posts

136 months

Monday 10th August
quotequote all
worth saying:

the EA will be getting a kick back from the broker, its decent money.

the downval will be on the system now, doesnt matter which surveyor looks at it so no point changing

the next buyer (if they choose to go with someone else) will get the same val

surveyor

14,731 posts

141 months

Monday 10th August
quotequote all
princeperch said:
Iirc the surveyor has a 5pc tolerance (i.e he shouldn't get the valuation wrong but if he does he can be 5pc out before he can be sued for negligence). So he really must be convinced that the house is worth 10k less than you've offered if he's downvalued it. And if the estate agent actually knows what she's doing she would have given him the comparables before he went over to value it. So I'd be telling the estate agent to get fked if I were you .
That's the valuers 'bracket' not the purchasers 'leeway'. It's nice to see a purchaser taking note, and asking the agent for comparables to justify why the surveyor is wrong is exactly the right thing to do.

When I have had these discussions as a valuer I have always been happy to consider any additional comparable that I had not been aware of providing it was good evidence (as in a sold property - not just on the market!).