How far will house prices fall [volume 5]
Discussion
cml24 said:
Yes this information would be interesting to know. Speaking with colleagues, it seems to be a matter of perspective. One in Teddington believes everyone will be buying houses near him to escape London. In my mind Teddington is full of high rise buildings and as central as it gets and people will be selling up to by big houses just inside/outside the m25. Ask other people though and they think those living an hour from central London will now be selling up to move two hours away to be by the coast or double their house size!
It's all about the net movements. People will continue to move to Teddington from London as they always have done, but will there be enough to offset the greater number of existing residents that you'd expect to up sticks and move out further? Will some of the people who would have moved from London to Teddington pre CV-19 now just skips the suburbs and move further out straight away.It's the same for the commuter towns. Places like Guildford and Sevenoaks might seem like they are well placed to benefit from a net influx, but they are already super-priced because of their combination of being nice places to live WITH fast rail links. More people might move a few more stops down the line, or off the mainline altogether. There are plenty of places in Kent in particular which are quite nice, still have fast-ish connections and are half the price of Sevenoaks.
cml24 said:
Maybe everyone is correct (apart from the skyscrapers in Teddington perhaps) and there are waves of people so its really only central London that will suffer greatly...
There aren't that many skyscrapers in Teddington really. There are a few 7-8 storey blocks creeping in down by the riverside but that is about it. Kingston on the other side of the river is the place that is fast being turned into a new Croydon, anywhere in the borough of Richmond remains mysteriously untouched.These developments will definitely suffer wherever they are, they were in oversupply before CV-19, and they can only be less popular now. I'm hopeful that means fewer will be built going forward.
Edited by kingston12 on Tuesday 1st September 09:48
rustyuk said:
kingston12 said:
rustyuk said:
Our neighbour has just sold. They had quite a bit of interest from people in London escaping as they no longer needed to be in the office everyday.
What area is that? It’s interesting to know how far the exodus is spreading.I suppose it stands to reason that the most distant areas will be amongst those to do the best out of this.
Central London, you'd assume, will be a net loser, while the suburbs, commuter towns and outer SE will gain people moving out but lose people moving further out.
It will be interesting to see how it affects new building going forward. There has been a glut of development in a lot of commutable places in the SE in the past few years, I wonder if that will move further out as well.
kingston12 said:
rustyuk said:
kingston12 said:
rustyuk said:
Our neighbour has just sold. They had quite a bit of interest from people in London escaping as they no longer needed to be in the office everyday.
What area is that? It’s interesting to know how far the exodus is spreading.I suppose it stands to reason that the most distant areas will be amongst those to do the best out of this.
Central London, you'd assume, will be a net loser, while the suburbs, commuter towns and outer SE will gain people moving out but lose people moving further out.
It will be interesting to see how it affects new building going forward. There has been a glut of development in a lot of commutable places in the SE in the past few years, I wonder if that will move further out as well.
For the last two years I commuted 1 day a week into London. Lots of people doing the same at my local station.
Definitely seeing central London grinding to a slow canter with almost anywhere out of there picking up somewhat. People have realised that living in / or even close to the capital isn’t as important as they had perhaps thought. Even pre virus, I came to that conclusion.
In terms of city investment; I can see that only Manchester seems to be holding strong. The momentum in Manchester - even amongst the virus fall out - is astonishing.
The north has a light on it at the moment also, with places of beauty and towns seeing Londoners jump ship. I was a Londoner for ten years and could never live there again. It’s still perhaps the greatest city on earth but if you can be out of it, with space and tranquility - and the new work routines allow for it: why wouldn’t you...
We have a couple of investment properties in London and I’d like to move them on and invest in Manchester - but now isn't the time to sell down there - not sure when it’ll feel the right time so in a bit of limbo on that front. One of them has long term tenants in and it’s a couple who seem to want to stay but her partner won’t be living there anymore and he will be out of London. But they’re staying together. Odd. I can’t get to the bottom of it but can only assume his work have decided to move a lot of activity out of London and he has no choice but to follow.
A friend in Manchester has been told that they are selling up their insane HQ... a massive building and estate - to move to work from home / hot desk and PAYG meeting space models.
There seems to be enough momentum on that front to genuinely change the landscape of commercial lets and office working for good. I wanted to jump on this and buy / invest in a coworking space in Manchester but I’ve not been bold enough yet.
In terms of city investment; I can see that only Manchester seems to be holding strong. The momentum in Manchester - even amongst the virus fall out - is astonishing.
The north has a light on it at the moment also, with places of beauty and towns seeing Londoners jump ship. I was a Londoner for ten years and could never live there again. It’s still perhaps the greatest city on earth but if you can be out of it, with space and tranquility - and the new work routines allow for it: why wouldn’t you...
We have a couple of investment properties in London and I’d like to move them on and invest in Manchester - but now isn't the time to sell down there - not sure when it’ll feel the right time so in a bit of limbo on that front. One of them has long term tenants in and it’s a couple who seem to want to stay but her partner won’t be living there anymore and he will be out of London. But they’re staying together. Odd. I can’t get to the bottom of it but can only assume his work have decided to move a lot of activity out of London and he has no choice but to follow.
A friend in Manchester has been told that they are selling up their insane HQ... a massive building and estate - to move to work from home / hot desk and PAYG meeting space models.
There seems to be enough momentum on that front to genuinely change the landscape of commercial lets and office working for good. I wanted to jump on this and buy / invest in a coworking space in Manchester but I’ve not been bold enough yet.
rustyuk said:
Thankyou4calling said:
If someone is selling up and moving out (of London)
Someone’s buying and moving in surely?
But if they already live in London the numbers trend down.Someone’s buying and moving in surely?
The freeholder of one of ours wants to buy the apartment / lease. So another example of it not being someone new turning up to live and enjoy London.
rustyuk said:
kingston12 said:
rustyuk said:
kingston12 said:
rustyuk said:
Our neighbour has just sold. They had quite a bit of interest from people in London escaping as they no longer needed to be in the office everyday.
What area is that? It’s interesting to know how far the exodus is spreading.I suppose it stands to reason that the most distant areas will be amongst those to do the best out of this.
Central London, you'd assume, will be a net loser, while the suburbs, commuter towns and outer SE will gain people moving out but lose people moving further out.
It will be interesting to see how it affects new building going forward. There has been a glut of development in a lot of commutable places in the SE in the past few years, I wonder if that will move further out as well.
For the last two years I commuted 1 day a week into London. Lots of people doing the same at my local station.
vdn said:
Exactly this. London isn’t hard to get to from way out. It’s 1 hour 50 from Wilmslow, Cheshire. A LOT of people living in Cheshire work in London. To give this context; from Epping, all on the tube; it’s over an hour anyway... so people are realising that London doesn’t become some far away land, should they move to another part of the country.
It's a 15k season ticket from Wilmslow. Can't imagine that coupled with wasting 4 hours of your life a day is going to work all that well with regular commuters is it?okgo said:
vdn said:
Exactly this. London isn’t hard to get to from way out. It’s 1 hour 50 from Wilmslow, Cheshire. A LOT of people living in Cheshire work in London. To give this context; from Epping, all on the tube; it’s over an hour anyway... so people are realising that London doesn’t become some far away land, should they move to another part of the country.
It's a 15k season ticket from Wilmslow. Can't imagine that coupled with wasting 4 hours of your life a day is going to work all that well with regular commuters is it?Thankyou4calling said:
If someone is selling up and moving out (of London)
Someone’s buying and moving in surely?
Indeed, but at what price? Someone’s buying and moving in surely?
There might be an element of parts of central London emptying out, but the suburbs and further afield won't. You'd assume that they'd lose some of their premium but I'm not seeing any of that around here so far.
NerveAgent said:
okgo said:
vdn said:
Exactly this. London isn’t hard to get to from way out. It’s 1 hour 50 from Wilmslow, Cheshire. A LOT of people living in Cheshire work in London. To give this context; from Epping, all on the tube; it’s over an hour anyway... so people are realising that London doesn’t become some far away land, should they move to another part of the country.
It's a 15k season ticket from Wilmslow. Can't imagine that coupled with wasting 4 hours of your life a day is going to work all that well with regular commuters is it?These are people that work a couple of days a week in London. And they are enjoying having a better standard of life with the Peak District on their doorstep and Manchester within easy reach also.
vdn said:
Bingo.
These are people that work a couple of days a week in London. And they are enjoying having a better standard of life with the Peak District on their doorstep and Manchester within easy reach also.
Can't see how that's attractive myself. Cost a fortune, takes fThese are people that work a couple of days a week in London. And they are enjoying having a better standard of life with the Peak District on their doorstep and Manchester within easy reach also.
king ages. Near to Manchester is useful for 'some' things, mostly not I'd imagine. And for a nice house in the peaks you're probably still doing a fair amount of cash?I personally think that places that are already established decampment locations from London will just do better and better. Of course some people will move to middle of nowhere, but its a big gamble to think that you will never need to fairly regularly (at a some way reasonable cost) need to get back into London. Personally can see places like Farnham etc doing well from this.
There's also a hell of a lot of people that live in London that would find it hard to adapt to a totally rural/village existence IMO, so that for me cements the idea that places that aren't that, but are semi in the country, but still have decent links will do well. Kent has lots of these places, Surrey also depending on budget, I'm sure the same can be found in Essex and Herts.
Edited by okgo on Tuesday 1st September 10:39
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