How far will house prices fall [volume 5]

[NickCQ]

z4RRSchris said:

good bounce at the moment pre the stamp[p duty rise on 11th march,
lots of big deals with people trying to beat the increase.
viewing numbers up, offers up etc etc.
Our place completes very soon so will be interesting to see what the interest is like when the doors open.

What's your prediction on stamp - expecting something in the £2 mm+ 'mansion tax' kind of region or lower down?
For what it's worth I think a US-style system of lower transaction taxes with higher annual property taxes based on indexed purchase price would be a good idea (would also benefit me so I'm a little biased).

Edited by NickCQ on Thursday 13th February 09:51

[z4RRSchris]

NickCQ said:

What's your prediction on stamp - expecting something in the £2 mm+ 'mansion tax' kind of region or lower down?
For what it's worth I think a US-style system of lower transaction taxes with higher annual property taxes based on indexed purchase price would be a good idea (would also benefit me so I'm a little biased).

Edited by NickCQ on Thursday 13th February 09:51

word on the street is either:

additional 3% for overseas nationals
or reduction of 3% for UK nationals,



C

[NickCQ]

z4RRSchris said:

or reduction of 3% for UK nationals

Is that the 'second home' / BTL 3% or across the board?

[z4RRSchris]

second home will stay where it is, you’ll get lumped with the nasty overseas

[okgo]

z4RRSchris said:

word on the street is either:

additional 3% for overseas nationals
or reduction of 3% for UK nationals,



C

Reduce for UK on all bands? Buying at the minute and paying quite a lot for not a lot due to the 10% grimness.

[anonymous-user]

z4RRSchris said:

word on the street is either:

additional 3% for overseas nationals
or reduction of 3% for UK nationals,

C

I am a UK National, Girlfriend is from Australia but has been here for three years on a spouse Visa. Both of us own a property we rent out, me in the UK, her in Australia.

If the 3% reduction occurs, I assume we wouldn't get it if we bought a place between us?

[z4RRSchris]

okgo said:

Reduce for UK on all bands? Buying at the minute and paying quite a lot for not a lot due to the 10% grimness.

on all bands is what we have been told.

its guesswork what will actually happen, but i would be holding off till march budget.

[okgo]

z4RRSchris said:

on all bands is what we have been told.

its guesswork what will actually happen, but i would be holding off till march budget.

Not due to exchange/complete till late march/april so might be able to play a blinder and delay completion until it comes in if that's how it goes.

[z4RRSchris]

march 11th is the date i believe so you will be fine,

[156651]

z4RRSchris said:

march 11th is the date i believe so you will be fine,

If there are changes to stamp duty in the budget on 11 March, will they take place immediately? We are looking to exchange shortly and hopefully complete on 14 March and are expecting a 9k stamp duty bill ... (460k property, FTBs)

[matrignano]

156651 said:

If there are changes to stamp duty in the budget on 11 March, will they take place immediately? We are looking to exchange shortly and hopefully complete on 14 March and are expecting a 9k stamp duty bill ... (460k property, FTBs)

Same question.

Announced on 11 March, but effective when? 6 April, beginning on new Fiscal Year?

I'm in the same position, just got an offer accepted. Will slow things down until 11th of March to see what the budget looks like.
Hope the Stamp Duty doesn't get increased however!!!

[156651]

matrignano said:

Same question.

Announced on 11 March, but effective when? 6 April, beginning on new Fiscal Year?

I'm in the same position, just got an offer accepted. Will slow things down until 11th of March to see what the budget looks like.
Hope the Stamp Duty doesn't get increased however!!!

If your offer has just been accepted, I suspect you have no chance of completing before 11 March!

This article suggests it would come into force at midnight on the 11th: https://www.farrer.co.uk/news-and-insights/stamp-d...

[matrignano]

I’m not a UK national, so I’m screwed I guess!
Unless being a UK resident with settled status will make a difference

[156651]

matrignano said:

I’m not a UK national, so I’m screwed I guess!
Unless being a UK resident with settled status will make a difference

I think if you are tax resident in the UK, the proposed surcharge would not apply to you (albeit who knows).

See: https://vote.conservatives.com/news/stamp-duty-lan...

"This is not about nationality but residency."

[DaveCWK]

Interesting thoughts on the stamp duty reduction. I'm forecast to complete on my next place in April so fingers crossed- it would be a good few k saving if 3% reduction across all levels.

I've long thought it must be absolutely killing the market at 800k+ which for much of the SE is normal families in large but not outrageous family homes who just need to move for work or oldies who need to downsize.

[okgo]

DaveCWK said:

Interesting thoughts on the stamp duty reduction. I'm forecast to complete on my next place in April so fingers crossed- it would be a good few k saving if 3% reduction across all levels.

I've long thought it must be absolutely killing the market at 800k+ which for much of the SE is normal families in large but not outrageous family homes who just need to move for work or oldies who need to downsize.

Well given that it only really gets properly expensive over £925k its probably only really London that has the issue. And I've been looking around the 1.1 mark and homes have been flying off the shelf. So I don't think its of huge concern, a vast amount of property for normal people (as in, most streets in non stholes) buying family homes in SW London falls around 1m-1.5m and things seem to move...

I think for multiple millions it may well be a different kettle of fish, but for under 1.5 there's just too much stock in that bracket for it to affect much, there's no alternative.

[NickCQ]

okgo said:

I think for multiple millions it may well be a different kettle of fish, but for under 1.5 there's just too much stock in that bracket for it to affect much, there's no alternative.

Agreed. The £1.5 mm & below stock tends to be smaller houses that you would get away with for young kids but need to upsize before they grow up.
So a lot of selling in that bracket driven by life events.

It's the larger stuff where you see older couples with kids that have moved away and should really downsize.

[okgo]

NickCQ said:

Agreed. The £1.5 mm & below stock tends to be smaller houses that you would get away with for young kids but need to upsize before they grow up.
So a lot of selling in that bracket driven by life events.

It's the larger stuff where you see older couples with kids that have moved away and should really downsize.

You think? I'd say that mostly the selling at that level are people moving out of London mainly as they don't need the space and they can buy a far more pleasant house outside of London and pocket 750k in the process. The place I'm buying is 1800sqft, 4 doubles, I think that's probably enough for 4 adults. I think below £1m and you may be right, but you don't have to go much over that and you're buying things like I mention above, obviously location dictates how much above, but they aren't starter homes, they'd be fine for anything but 3 or more kids I'd say.

Two houses I've been quite keen on have both been people cashing in and moving out of London, rather than going to the next thing up in the area. Mainly as most people have no hope of affording it, because it's multiple millions. A buyer paying 6-700k for a place in 2012 isn't a £3m house buyer 8 years later generally unless something fairly mega has happened to their income.

Edited by okgo on Thursday 13th February 16:17

Edited by okgo on Thursday 13th February 16:18

[156651]

okgo said:

Well given that it only really gets properly expensive over £925k its probably only really London that has the issue. And I've been looking around the 1.1 mark and homes have been flying off the shelf. So I don't think its of huge concern, a vast amount of property for normal people (as in, most streets in non stholes) buying family homes in SW London falls around 1m-1.5m and things seem to move...

I think for multiple millions it may well be a different kettle of fish, but for under 1.5 there's just too much stock in that bracket for it to affect much, there's no alternative.

Normal people don't spend 1m to 1.5m on a house. The median wage is around 35k. To get a 1m mortgage you need a household salary of at least 200k.

[okgo]

156651 said:

Normal people don't spend 1m to 1.5m on a house. The median wage is around 35k. To get a 1m mortgage you need a household salary of at least 200k.

Normal for the area, you get my point, I'm sure. I could draw a map that stretches from East Dulwich all the way basically to Kingston, and save for a few pockets of crap, a family home is getting on towards those numbers. That's a huge part of the city really.

Obviously most people buying family homes are not FTB, so you can get by with doing it with quite a bit less than 200k HHI if you've done ok out of a couple of places before. Or two people who both owned combining in my case.