How far will house prices fall [volume 5]
Discussion
GlenMH said:
I know 2 architects who have been made redundant but I haven't heard of any other professionals who are at risk at the moment - although there is quite a lot of murmurings coming from the engineers employed at RR due to the collapse in air travel.
Architects always seem to be the first to lose their jobs in a recession, sadly.Helicopter123 said:
The property market is quite heavily rigged by the government, and now that Boris has remembered he is a Tory it looks as if further demand is going to be created via 95% mortgage deals at long-term fixed rates.
While there will be the odd bump in the road, those (still) waiting for a large decline in prices are likely to find themselves disappointed.
They are going to protect the banksWhile there will be the odd bump in the road, those (still) waiting for a large decline in prices are likely to find themselves disappointed.
They will ensure house prices rise.
They will chuck some bones to potential voters.
What they will do will be the thing that does those 3 the most.
Mining Subsidence Man said:
Helicopter123 said:
The property market is quite heavily rigged by the government, and now that Boris has remembered he is a Tory it looks as if further demand is going to be created via 95% mortgage deals at long-term fixed rates.
While there will be the odd bump in the road, those (still) waiting for a large decline in prices are likely to find themselves disappointed.
They are going to protect the banksWhile there will be the odd bump in the road, those (still) waiting for a large decline in prices are likely to find themselves disappointed.
They will ensure house prices rise.
They will chuck some bones to potential voters.
What they will do will be the thing that does those 3 the most.
Mining Subsidence Man said:
s1962a said:
We got Brexit done though...
As a brexiter. I am wondering if it was the right choice. Can we have a revote, I would like to keep the EU lot and get rid of our lot.
If death virus is anything to go by, they are going to cock this up too
Metro said:
Launching an attack on Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour party, Mr Johnson added: ‘They may have million-pound homes in north London, but they deeply dislike home ownership for anyone else. ‘We want to level up; they want to level down.’
Would prices be more reasonable under Labour?s1962a said:
Would prices be more reasonable under Labour?
I don't think so. It was the previous Labour government that started all of this with their reaction to the 'crash' in 2008. The Tories have been more blatant (e.g. Osborne admitting that Help to Buy was designed more to cause a property price boom than to actually help people to buy), but I don't think the decisions would be much different.It's only going to get harder. This proposal is effectively like introducing Help to Buy on all properties rather than just new builds. Once that's pushed up prices again, then we'll have to be into 100%+ mortgages, intergenerational lending etc.
Even if the government allow, will 95%-100% mortgage products actually be made available from the banks. With previous experience of these and the mess it created, I'm not convinced banks will want to take the risk and offer these products. We are definitely in interesting economic times.
Rob_125 said:
Even if the government allow, will 95%-100% mortgage products actually be made available from the banks. With previous experience of these and the mess it created, I'm not convinced banks will want to take the risk and offer these products. We are definitely in interesting economic times.
Risk? Govt will underwrite with our money so I understand. Banks will rake it in, just like the BBLs.richardxjr said:
Rob_125 said:
Even if the government allow, will 95%-100% mortgage products actually be made available from the banks. With previous experience of these and the mess it created, I'm not convinced banks will want to take the risk and offer these products. We are definitely in interesting economic times.
Risk? Govt will underwrite with our money so I understand. Banks will rake it in, just like the BBLs.Rob_125 said:
Even if the government allow, will 95%-100% mortgage products actually be made available from the banks. With previous experience of these and the mess it created, I'm not convinced banks will want to take the risk and offer these products. We are definitely in interesting economic times.
I am late to this news, but found:Boris Johnson is looking to launch a 95% mortgage scheme where normal stress test rules don’t apply.
Reportedly the scheme would introduce “a form of state guarantee” to lenders to lower the risk of the loans.
Underneath it then says:
That was the view of David Alexander, joint managing director of Apropos, the property management company.
Alexander said: “The proposal by the Prime Minister to offer a 5% deposit mortgage scheme for first-time buyers to “fix our broken housing market” sounds superficially appealing but ultimately does not bear much scrutiny.
“Offering mortgages to individuals which lenders already regard as high risk has the potential to land people with future negative equity.
“No-one would doubt that the intention is well meant but the execution could result in many individuals acquiring unwanted and unsustainable debt in the years to come
https://www.propertywire.com/news/apropos-slams-pr...
Maybe banks will use high interest rates to stop takeup?
the-photographer said:
I am late to this news, but found:
Boris Johnson is looking to launch a 95% mortgage scheme where normal stress test rules don’t apply.
Reportedly the scheme would introduce “a form of state guarantee” to lenders to lower the risk of the loans.
Underneath it then says:
That was the view of David Alexander, joint managing director of Apropos, the property management company.
Alexander said: “The proposal by the Prime Minister to offer a 5% deposit mortgage scheme for first-time buyers to “fix our broken housing market” sounds superficially appealing but ultimately does not bear much scrutiny.
“Offering mortgages to individuals which lenders already regard as high risk has the potential to land people with future negative equity.
“No-one would doubt that the intention is well meant but the execution could result in many individuals acquiring unwanted and unsustainable debt in the years to come
https://www.propertywire.com/news/apropos-slams-pr...
Maybe banks will use high interest rates to stop takeup?
The guy runs a letting business in Edinburgh and Glasgow...I'm not sure it will even affect him in Scotland!Boris Johnson is looking to launch a 95% mortgage scheme where normal stress test rules don’t apply.
Reportedly the scheme would introduce “a form of state guarantee” to lenders to lower the risk of the loans.
Underneath it then says:
That was the view of David Alexander, joint managing director of Apropos, the property management company.
Alexander said: “The proposal by the Prime Minister to offer a 5% deposit mortgage scheme for first-time buyers to “fix our broken housing market” sounds superficially appealing but ultimately does not bear much scrutiny.
“Offering mortgages to individuals which lenders already regard as high risk has the potential to land people with future negative equity.
“No-one would doubt that the intention is well meant but the execution could result in many individuals acquiring unwanted and unsustainable debt in the years to come
https://www.propertywire.com/news/apropos-slams-pr...
Maybe banks will use high interest rates to stop takeup?
I think that, if the cost of interest is lower than the BTL yield, buyers will be better off in cashflow terms anyway, notwithstanding high leverage.
Mining Subsidence Man said:
As a brexiter. I am wondering if it was the right choice.
Can we have a revote, I would like to keep the EU lot and get rid of our lot.
If death virus is anything to go by, they are going to cock this up too
Without wishing to turn this into a Brexit discussion, the reason that I voted to remain in the EEC in 1975? was the hope that we would be able to get rid of our establishment, and be a major part of a developing democratic Federal Republic of Europe. Subsequent events and the wisdom of age caused me to change my mind in 1992.Can we have a revote, I would like to keep the EU lot and get rid of our lot.
If death virus is anything to go by, they are going to cock this up too
Joey Deacon said:
Can well believe it, if you have a 20% deposit the deals are crazy cheap. I have two going through at the moment, a BTL at 1.61% and a residential at 1.59%
£180K BTL interest only at £241 a month. If you have the deposit sitting in a marcus account earning 0.7% or NS&I earning 0.01 why wouldn't you buy a BTL with it?
Looks like even the HousePriceCrash cultists are starting to get it
"This thing has legs now, right through till April next year, there will be a mad rish to buy after christmas, look prices are shooting up, we're losing our jobs, we need to buy now, it'll cost ups 3% more etc etc etc, then Boris' criminal government sub-prime 0.1% 50 year inter-generational mortgages will be wheeled in
Give it up folks, they have beaten us, our money is worthless."
Interested where you can get those rates for a 20% deposit BTL mortgage. £180K BTL interest only at £241 a month. If you have the deposit sitting in a marcus account earning 0.7% or NS&I earning 0.01 why wouldn't you buy a BTL with it?
Looks like even the HousePriceCrash cultists are starting to get it
"This thing has legs now, right through till April next year, there will be a mad rish to buy after christmas, look prices are shooting up, we're losing our jobs, we need to buy now, it'll cost ups 3% more etc etc etc, then Boris' criminal government sub-prime 0.1% 50 year inter-generational mortgages will be wheeled in
Give it up folks, they have beaten us, our money is worthless."
Edited by Joey Deacon on Wednesday 7th October 12:37
With the stamp duty holiday & high rents here in the SE, now looks a good time for new buyers..
My daughter is about to press the button on a nice apartment. A lot nicer than the first house/dump we bought in the early 80s!
With a reasonable deposit, the monthly costs are far lower than renting around this way.
Must be nuts to spend £1300+ a month to rent the 2020 equivalent of my 1980s dump!
Thankfully she steered clear of renting in the last few years
As long as buying is cheap compared to renting, it’s a good time to buy.
My daughter is about to press the button on a nice apartment. A lot nicer than the first house/dump we bought in the early 80s!
With a reasonable deposit, the monthly costs are far lower than renting around this way.
Must be nuts to spend £1300+ a month to rent the 2020 equivalent of my 1980s dump!
Thankfully she steered clear of renting in the last few years
As long as buying is cheap compared to renting, it’s a good time to buy.
NickCQ said:
Forgoing the investment income on the deposit though.. net yields on resi are pretty thin in the SE and London
Hi good point yesNothing is straightforward !
Investment income is another minefield of course. Luckily she knuckled down & saved hard for a couple of years.
Edited by anonymous-user on Wednesday 7th October 18:25
Rob_125 said:
Even if the government allow, will 95%-100% mortgage products actually be made available from the banks. With previous experience of these and the mess it created, I'm not convinced banks will want to take the risk and offer these products. We are definitely in interesting economic times.
There is lots of discussion about that very subject happening now between Gov and Banks.They would no doubt need to have a hefty guarantee by Gov for banks to loan to the group (basically going the whole sub prime route that ended so well before) they rightly see as the highest risk in a climate where the young are highly affected.
It will be interesting to see what compromise/risk levels are agreed and whether all banks do and at what rates. It slightly reminds me of the LISA or something scheme where only a small handful of banks actually offered it.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/pm-sparks-alarm...
PrinceRupert said:
Yup. I don't know any professional who is at risk of redundancy. In fact one US law firm in London just chucked its NQs a 25k pay rise (from 105k to 130k, at 25...) ...
There are absolutely stacks, I know people across finance, consultancy, aerospace and IT that have recently been let go (or rather given notice/packages). These are people in the £70-150k type bracket.Let alone some consultancies still paying 10-15% below contracted salaries and bonuses being kept flat or cut (public sector work flying, private sector not)
Thankfully it hasn't reached your friendship group, it has mine
Edited by V6Alfisti on Wednesday 7th October 19:11
Jimboka said:
With the stamp duty holiday & high rents here in the SE, now looks a good time for new buyers..
My daughter is about to press the button on a nice apartment. A lot nicer than the first house/dump we bought in the early 80s!
With a reasonable deposit, the monthly costs are far lower than renting around this way.
Must be nuts to spend £1300+ a month to rent the 2020 equivalent of my 1980s dump!
Thankfully she steered clear of renting in the last few years
As long as buying is cheap compared to renting, it’s a good time to buy.
Not so. Consider if prices fall by, say, 30%. On a £200k house that would be £60k. If that happens 6 months after she buys, it would be an ouch moment. Especially as for £7.8k rent, she could have bought the same house later and be £52.2k in frontMy daughter is about to press the button on a nice apartment. A lot nicer than the first house/dump we bought in the early 80s!
With a reasonable deposit, the monthly costs are far lower than renting around this way.
Must be nuts to spend £1300+ a month to rent the 2020 equivalent of my 1980s dump!
Thankfully she steered clear of renting in the last few years
As long as buying is cheap compared to renting, it’s a good time to buy.
Never works out like that though
Fusion777 said:
Joey Deacon said:
Can well believe it, if you have a 20% deposit the deals are crazy cheap. I have two going through at the moment, a BTL at 1.61% and a residential at 1.59%
£180K BTL interest only at £241 a month. If you have the deposit sitting in a marcus account earning 0.7% or NS&I earning 0.01 why wouldn't you buy a BTL with it?
Looks like even the HousePriceCrash cultists are starting to get it
"This thing has legs now, right through till April next year, there will be a mad rish to buy after christmas, look prices are shooting up, we're losing our jobs, we need to buy now, it'll cost ups 3% more etc etc etc, then Boris' criminal government sub-prime 0.1% 50 year inter-generational mortgages will be wheeled in
Give it up folks, they have beaten us, our money is worthless."
Interested where you can get those rates for a 20% deposit BTL mortgage. £180K BTL interest only at £241 a month. If you have the deposit sitting in a marcus account earning 0.7% or NS&I earning 0.01 why wouldn't you buy a BTL with it?
Looks like even the HousePriceCrash cultists are starting to get it
"This thing has legs now, right through till April next year, there will be a mad rish to buy after christmas, look prices are shooting up, we're losing our jobs, we need to buy now, it'll cost ups 3% more etc etc etc, then Boris' criminal government sub-prime 0.1% 50 year inter-generational mortgages will be wheeled in
Give it up folks, they have beaten us, our money is worthless."
Edited by anonymous-user on Wednesday 7th October 12:37
The 1.61% BTL rate is on a property with 47% equity, I think it is virtually impossible to get a BTL mortgage with only a 20% deposit. I think you really need 35% depending on the price/monthly rent to pass the BTL stress test rules.
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