Brexit - 35% House Prices Crash
Discussion
At the top end of the market so £2mill plus (depending on location) I could see it happening more regular priced housing probably not. I am seeing stuff that was up for £2.25mil complete for £1.8mil and a place that was up for £1.25mil sell for £1mil. This is in the NW London, more expensive stuff in London I could see 20-30% being realistic.
If I would first time buyer I would probably wait though, you might be able to take advantage of the turmoil post March 2019.
If I would first time buyer I would probably wait though, you might be able to take advantage of the turmoil post March 2019.
Iddz said:
Would you say this is likely to happen? I am a first time buyer and have finally saved up enough deposit to buy by dream house but do not want to be stuck in negative equality.
You could always just live there. As long as you can afford the mortgage, an arbitrary "value" on the house only matters if you want to sell it.
The reality is however that this is more bulls
t from the "what if" department. As above, it is one of the possible scenarios which *may* come to be *if* we drop out without an agreement. It is in (almost) no ones interest for us to do so and undoubtedly there will be an agreement but it serves the purposes of many to go on about what "will" happen. That's not to say there is a zero probability of it happening, the Government is right to prepare (unlike before when they utterly failed to prepare for the consequences of a leave vote) but from a PR POV they're stuck between a rock and a hard place.
Prepare for no-agreement - get slated.
Don't prepare - get slated.
captain_cynic said:
Also remember that there are changes to agent and letting fees being introduced next year (march IIRC) meaning that agents and landlords can no longer charge you £400 just to walk through the door and I constantly hear complaints that it's barely profitable as it is. Combine this with the pound dropping causing less disposable income (hence renters will be moving to cheaper properties) and we're likely to see fair few BTL properties being put on the market and agents going tits up at the same time.
Alternatively rents will rise to offset additional costs.I don't know what effect that will have on house prices.
Next door just sold for 1.1 million after only a week on the market.
OK pre Brexit the same houses were up for 1.3 million but I bought mine in 1998 for 175k so I'm not too worried but I do think now is not the time to buy but might well be the time to sell.
But then after getting burnt buying a flat in '88 for 50k and just surviving 14% interest to sell in '98 for the same 50k, thus refusing to buy a flat just by the Thames for 150k as there was no way the prices were going up, I should ignore what I say.
Those same flats are 800k+ now
OK pre Brexit the same houses were up for 1.3 million but I bought mine in 1998 for 175k so I'm not too worried but I do think now is not the time to buy but might well be the time to sell.
But then after getting burnt buying a flat in '88 for 50k and just surviving 14% interest to sell in '98 for the same 50k, thus refusing to buy a flat just by the Thames for 150k as there was no way the prices were going up, I should ignore what I say.
Those same flats are 800k+ now
captain_cynic said:
If you think the NHS is expensive, you should see how much a private system costs.
The US taxpayer pays nearly twice as much for their private health system as the UK taxpayer does for the NHS... And the US taxpayer then needs health insurance above that.
The US model isn't the only model available - in fact it's a totally off-the-wall example.The US taxpayer pays nearly twice as much for their private health system as the UK taxpayer does for the NHS... And the US taxpayer then needs health insurance above that.
No other EU state has an NHS, and I don't see "the poor" being excluded. I'd argue that standards of healthcare are better too.
captain_cynic said:
Dr Doofenshmirtz said:
kambites said:
I think the Tories have been looking for an excuse to privatise the NHS for years...
Well it's off topic, but the NHS is a massive vast cavernous huge money pit that you either keep blindly pouring money into, or do the sensible thing and get rid. The US taxpayer pays nearly twice as much for their private health system as the UK taxpayer does for the NHS... And the US taxpayer then needs health insurance above that.
Something lots of people seem to overlook when complaining about the cost of the NHS, is that in countries where people need private health insurance, they're also paying tax. My family health insurance policy is over €350/month, in a country with 52% higher rate tax.
Economic forecasters lost all their credibility when they talked about the immediate recession following a leave vote.
None of them have the balls to say “actually we havent got the foggiest idea what will happen given that its such a rare event”. None of us have any idea how brexit is going to pan out.
I reckon we will see monumental levels of panic much like the millennium bug and the country will just soldier on as if nothing has happened after we leave.
That said im a btl investor and a 30% drop in house prices would be rather nice.
None of them have the balls to say “actually we havent got the foggiest idea what will happen given that its such a rare event”. None of us have any idea how brexit is going to pan out.
I reckon we will see monumental levels of panic much like the millennium bug and the country will just soldier on as if nothing has happened after we leave.
That said im a btl investor and a 30% drop in house prices would be rather nice.
Edited by dazwalsh on Monday 17th September 12:30
Iddz said:
Hi guys,
As you would have heard or seen, as its all over the news; apparently with the event of a no-brexit deal we are likely to see a 35% drop in house prices.
Would you say this is likely to happen? I am a first time buyer and have finally saved up enough deposit to buy by dream house but do not want to be stuck in negative equality.
Any information welcome.
Carney, nor anyone else of any repute, has said “we are likely to see a 35% drop”. The 35% is in relation to a worst-case stress test - a made up scenario so the BoE can model whether the banking system is robust enough to withstand a shock (whatever the origin may be). Someone in the Cabinet meeting where Carney apparently spoke of this 35% has mistakenly, or perhaps wilfully, got the wrong end of the stick. It is not a forecast or a prediction.As you would have heard or seen, as its all over the news; apparently with the event of a no-brexit deal we are likely to see a 35% drop in house prices.
Would you say this is likely to happen? I am a first time buyer and have finally saved up enough deposit to buy by dream house but do not want to be stuck in negative equality.
Any information welcome.
donkmeister said:
A drop of that magnitude would be brilliant for many people and for many reasons but only if it isn't accompanied by a huge increase in people defaulting on mortgages as a result.
Why?donkmeister said:
It would however upset a lot of friends and colleagues who have remortgaged to pay for holidays and toys, and also those who are mortgaged to the hilt to get the absolute maximum house they can stretch to.
So what? They've obviously over-extended themselves. Fck'em. 
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