How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 5)

How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 5)

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gooner1

10,223 posts

179 months

Tuesday 16th October 2018
quotequote all
Coolbanana said:
Saw this and thought I would share:

LEAVER: I want an omelette.

REMAINER: Right. It’s just we haven’t got any eggs.

LEAVER: Yes, we have. There they are. [HE POINTS AT A CAKE]

REMAINER: They’re in the cake.

LEAVER: Yes, get them out of the cake, please.

REMAINER: But we voted in 1974 to put them into a cake.

LEAVER: Yes, but that cake has got icing on it. Nobody said there was going to be icing on it.

REMAINER: Icing is good.

LEAVER: And there are raisins in it. I don’t like raisins. Nobody mentioned raisins. I demand another vote.

DAVID CAMERON ENTERS.

DAVID CAMERON: OK.

DAVID CAMERON SCARPERS.

LEAVER: Right, where’s my omelette?

REMAINER: I told you, the eggs are in the cake.

LEAVER: Well, get them out.

EU: It’s our cake.

JEREMY CORBYN: Yes, get them out now.

REMAINER: I have absolutely no idea how to get them out. Don’t you know how to get them out?

LEAVER: Yes! You just get them out and then you make an omelette.

REMAINER: But how?! Didn’t you give this any thought?

LEAVER: Saboteur! You’re talking eggs down. We could make omelettes before the eggs went into the cake, so there’s no reason why we can’t make them now.

THERESA MAY: It’s OK, I can do it.

REMAINER: How?

THERESA MAY: There was a vote to remove the eggs from the cake, and so the eggs will be removed from the cake.

REMAINER: Yeah, but…

LEAVER: Hang on, if we take the eggs out of the cake, does that mean we don’t have any cake? I didn’t say I didn’t want the cake, just the bits I don’t like.

EU: It’s our cake.

REMAINER: But you can’t take the eggs out of the cake and then still have a cake.

LEAVER: You can. I saw the latest Bake Off and you can definitely make cakes without eggs in them. It’s just that they’re horrible.

REMAINER: Fine. Take the eggs out. See what happens.

LEAVER: It’s not my responsibility to take the eggs out. Get on with it.

REMAINER: Why should I have to come up with some long-winded incredibly difficult chemical process to extract eggs that have bonded at the molecular level to the cake, while somehow still having the cake?

LEAVER: You lost, get over it.

THERESA MAY: By the way, I’ve started the clock on this.

REMAINER: So I assume you have a plan?

THERESA MAY: Actually, back in a bit. Just having another election.

REMAINER: Jeremy, are you going to sort this out?

JEREMY CORBYN: Yes. No. Maybe.

EU: It’s our cake.

LEAVER: Where’s my omelette? I voted for an omelette.

REMAINER: This is ridiculous. This is never going to work. We should have another vote, or at least stop what we’re doing until we know how to get the eggs out of the cake while keeping the bits of the cake that we all like.

LEAVER/MAY/CORBYN: WE HAD A VOTE. STOP SABOTAGING THE WILL OF THE PEOPLE. EGGSIT MEANS EGGSIT.

REMAINER: Fine, I’m moving to France. The cakes are nicer there.

LEAVER: You can’t. We’ve taken your freedom of movement.
Pretty sure Pattiserie Valerie will have a fair few eggs spare, and don't forget we can source
new markets once the EU lets us leave.

slow_poke

1,855 posts

234 months

Tuesday 16th October 2018
quotequote all
JagLover said:
slow_poke said:
Time for the EU, especially Ireland, to face up to the reality that the British Govt can't deliver on the promises and assurances already made since negotiations began. It may be time they cut the UK loose to a hardest of Brexits and let them get on with it until such time there's a strong and stable BritGov that can deliver what it promises and then talk about future relationships.
Which is where the logic falls down a bit, because if their main concern is the NI border, letting the talks fail will mean simply trading on WTO terms over that border.

As far as I am aware all other aspects of the withdrawal agreement were agreed.
Yup. But better for them to face up to reality and grasp the nettle - BritGov can't deliver a backstop in Ireland. They're too beholden to the DUP & the ERG in their own party.

It's time to split the blanket - UK goes their way, rEU goes their way. Ireland suffers a hard border until either such time in 10 or 15 yeas that a Border Poll votes away the pesky border entirely, or a fresh strong stable BritGov can make deals that they can actually deliver on.

gooner1

10,223 posts

179 months

Tuesday 16th October 2018
quotequote all
slow_poke said:
Yup. But better for them to face up to reality and grasp the nettle - BritGov can't deliver a backstop in Ireland. They're too beholden to the DUP & the ERG in their own party.

It's time to split the blanket - UK goes their way, rEU goes their way. Ireland suffers a hard border until either such time in 10 or 15 yeas that a Border Poll votes away the pesky border entirely, or a fresh strong stable BritGov can make deals that they can actually deliver on.
Who will erect and Man this border?

slow_poke

1,855 posts

234 months

Tuesday 16th October 2018
quotequote all
gooner1 said:
slow_poke said:
Yup. But better for them to face up to reality and grasp the nettle - BritGov can't deliver a backstop in Ireland. They're too beholden to the DUP & the ERG in their own party.

It's time to split the blanket - UK goes their way, rEU goes their way. Ireland suffers a hard border until either such time in 10 or 15 yeas that a Border Poll votes away the pesky border entirely, or a fresh strong stable BritGov can make deals that they can actually deliver on.
Who will erect and Man this border?
UK and Irish of course, each on their own side.

Since the backstop isn't possible, let's just do a proper international quality frontier.

JNW1

7,787 posts

194 months

Tuesday 16th October 2018
quotequote all
JagLover said:
slow_poke said:
Time for the EU, especially Ireland, to face up to the reality that the British Govt can't deliver on the promises and assurances already made since negotiations began. It may be time they cut the UK loose to a hardest of Brexits and let them get on with it until such time there's a strong and stable BritGov that can deliver what it promises and then talk about future relationships.
Which is where the logic falls down a bit, because if their main concern is the NI border, letting the talks fail will mean simply trading on WTO terms over that border.

As far as I am aware all other aspects of the withdrawal agreement were agreed.
I'm no doubt missing a trick here - and apologies if it's been covered before - but what I don't really understand is how this Irish border issue would work in the event of a no-deal.

We're saying we don't want a hard border and the Irish government is saying the same; therefore, in the event of a no-deal how would a hard border actually get created? We'll presumably refuse to put checkpoints or any physical infrastructure in place and if the Irish government adopts the same attitude how does this hard border physically come to pass? Do Barnier, Tusk Juncker, et al have to turn-up in hard hats with plant and equipment to create it because as far as I can see nobody in either the UK or the Irish governments has the slightest inclination to put one in place!

PurpleMoonlight

22,362 posts

157 months

Tuesday 16th October 2018
quotequote all
Coolbanana said:
Saw this and thought I would share:

LEAVER: I want an omelette.

REMAINER: Right. It’s just we haven’t got any eggs.

LEAVER: Yes, we have. There they are. [HE POINTS AT A CAKE]

REMAINER: They’re in the cake.

LEAVER: Yes, get them out of the cake, please.

REMAINER: But we voted in 1974 to put them into a cake.

LEAVER: Yes, but that cake has got icing on it. Nobody said there was going to be icing on it.

REMAINER: Icing is good.

LEAVER: And there are raisins in it. I don’t like raisins. Nobody mentioned raisins. I demand another vote.

DAVID CAMERON ENTERS.

DAVID CAMERON: OK.

DAVID CAMERON SCARPERS.

LEAVER: Right, where’s my omelette?

REMAINER: I told you, the eggs are in the cake.

LEAVER: Well, get them out.

EU: It’s our cake.

JEREMY CORBYN: Yes, get them out now.

REMAINER: I have absolutely no idea how to get them out. Don’t you know how to get them out?

LEAVER: Yes! You just get them out and then you make an omelette.

REMAINER: But how?! Didn’t you give this any thought?

LEAVER: Saboteur! You’re talking eggs down. We could make omelettes before the eggs went into the cake, so there’s no reason why we can’t make them now.

THERESA MAY: It’s OK, I can do it.

REMAINER: How?

THERESA MAY: There was a vote to remove the eggs from the cake, and so the eggs will be removed from the cake.

REMAINER: Yeah, but…

LEAVER: Hang on, if we take the eggs out of the cake, does that mean we don’t have any cake? I didn’t say I didn’t want the cake, just the bits I don’t like.

EU: It’s our cake.

REMAINER: But you can’t take the eggs out of the cake and then still have a cake.

LEAVER: You can. I saw the latest Bake Off and you can definitely make cakes without eggs in them. It’s just that they’re horrible.

REMAINER: Fine. Take the eggs out. See what happens.

LEAVER: It’s not my responsibility to take the eggs out. Get on with it.

REMAINER: Why should I have to come up with some long-winded incredibly difficult chemical process to extract eggs that have bonded at the molecular level to the cake, while somehow still having the cake?

LEAVER: You lost, get over it.

THERESA MAY: By the way, I’ve started the clock on this.

REMAINER: So I assume you have a plan?

THERESA MAY: Actually, back in a bit. Just having another election.

REMAINER: Jeremy, are you going to sort this out?

JEREMY CORBYN: Yes. No. Maybe.

EU: It’s our cake.

LEAVER: Where’s my omelette? I voted for an omelette.

REMAINER: This is ridiculous. This is never going to work. We should have another vote, or at least stop what we’re doing until we know how to get the eggs out of the cake while keeping the bits of the cake that we all like.

LEAVER/MAY/CORBYN: WE HAD A VOTE. STOP SABOTAGING THE WILL OF THE PEOPLE. EGGSIT MEANS EGGSIT.

REMAINER: Fine, I’m moving to France. The cakes are nicer there.

LEAVER: You can’t. We’ve taken your freedom of movement.
I read that as if it were a Monty Python sketch.

Made me laugh.

soupdragon1

4,052 posts

97 months

Tuesday 16th October 2018
quotequote all
PurpleMoonlight said:
Coolbanana said:
Saw this and thought I would share:

LEAVER: I want an omelette.

REMAINER: Right. It’s just we haven’t got any eggs.

LEAVER: Yes, we have. There they are. [HE POINTS AT A CAKE]

REMAINER: They’re in the cake.

LEAVER: Yes, get them out of the cake, please.

REMAINER: But we voted in 1974 to put them into a cake.

LEAVER: Yes, but that cake has got icing on it. Nobody said there was going to be icing on it.

REMAINER: Icing is good.

LEAVER: And there are raisins in it. I don’t like raisins. Nobody mentioned raisins. I demand another vote.

DAVID CAMERON ENTERS.

DAVID CAMERON: OK.

DAVID CAMERON SCARPERS.

LEAVER: Right, where’s my omelette?

REMAINER: I told you, the eggs are in the cake.

LEAVER: Well, get them out.

EU: It’s our cake.

JEREMY CORBYN: Yes, get them out now.

REMAINER: I have absolutely no idea how to get them out. Don’t you know how to get them out?

LEAVER: Yes! You just get them out and then you make an omelette.

REMAINER: But how?! Didn’t you give this any thought?

LEAVER: Saboteur! You’re talking eggs down. We could make omelettes before the eggs went into the cake, so there’s no reason why we can’t make them now.

THERESA MAY: It’s OK, I can do it.

REMAINER: How?

THERESA MAY: There was a vote to remove the eggs from the cake, and so the eggs will be removed from the cake.

REMAINER: Yeah, but…

LEAVER: Hang on, if we take the eggs out of the cake, does that mean we don’t have any cake? I didn’t say I didn’t want the cake, just the bits I don’t like.

EU: It’s our cake.

REMAINER: But you can’t take the eggs out of the cake and then still have a cake.

LEAVER: You can. I saw the latest Bake Off and you can definitely make cakes without eggs in them. It’s just that they’re horrible.

REMAINER: Fine. Take the eggs out. See what happens.

LEAVER: It’s not my responsibility to take the eggs out. Get on with it.

REMAINER: Why should I have to come up with some long-winded incredibly difficult chemical process to extract eggs that have bonded at the molecular level to the cake, while somehow still having the cake?

LEAVER: You lost, get over it.

THERESA MAY: By the way, I’ve started the clock on this.

REMAINER: So I assume you have a plan?

THERESA MAY: Actually, back in a bit. Just having another election.

REMAINER: Jeremy, are you going to sort this out?

JEREMY CORBYN: Yes. No. Maybe.

EU: It’s our cake.

LEAVER: Where’s my omelette? I voted for an omelette.

REMAINER: This is ridiculous. This is never going to work. We should have another vote, or at least stop what we’re doing until we know how to get the eggs out of the cake while keeping the bits of the cake that we all like.

LEAVER/MAY/CORBYN: WE HAD A VOTE. STOP SABOTAGING THE WILL OF THE PEOPLE. EGGSIT MEANS EGGSIT.

REMAINER: Fine, I’m moving to France. The cakes are nicer there.

LEAVER: You can’t. We’ve taken your freedom of movement.
I read that as if it were a Monty Python sketch.

Made me laugh.
Me too. David Cameron making a cameo appearance also a nice touch smile

Vanden Saab

14,072 posts

74 months

Tuesday 16th October 2018
quotequote all
The EU encouraged by what the peoples vote leaders are telling them still think no deal will not happen and the UK will back down . Once they realise that the advice they are being given is bks which will probably be after the Hoc vote any agreement down, they will back down themselves.

JagLover

42,406 posts

235 months

Tuesday 16th October 2018
quotequote all
slow_poke said:
Yup. But better for them to face up to reality and grasp the nettle - BritGov can't deliver a backstop in Ireland. They're too beholden to the DUP & the ERG in their own party.

It's time to split the blanket - UK goes their way, rEU goes their way. Ireland suffers a hard border until either such time in 10 or 15 yeas that a Border Poll votes away the pesky border entirely, or a fresh strong stable BritGov can make deals that they can actually deliver on.
If that is the case why not change the backstop?

I am struggling to see the logic of not coming to an agreement due to their requirement of there being no "hard" border in Ireland, which guarantees that there will be the hardest border possible.



anonymous-user

54 months

Tuesday 16th October 2018
quotequote all
slow_poke said:
gooner1 said:
slow_poke said:
Yup. But better for them to face up to reality and grasp the nettle - BritGov can't deliver a backstop in Ireland. They're too beholden to the DUP & the ERG in their own party.

It's time to split the blanket - UK goes their way, rEU goes their way. Ireland suffers a hard border until either such time in 10 or 15 yeas that a Border Poll votes away the pesky border entirely, or a fresh strong stable BritGov can make deals that they can actually deliver on.
Who will erect and Man this border?
UK and Irish of course, each on their own side.

Since the backstop isn't possible, let's just do a proper international quality frontier.
There will be no physical border, even with no deal. UK wont build it, Ireland wont build it.

It's looking ever more likely the only way out is the EU have to accept what was agreed in the end of stage 1 fudge on the backstop wont be signed up to. (remember the day after Davis saying it was bullst and the EU scrambling to get some legal wording put on paper? I do)

At the time i said it was a bullst can kicking exercise to allow the face saving required to get onto stage 2. Everything that has happened since backs that up and there really was no intent to sign up to that backstop agreement. Since then the politics on the ground has made it impossible to sign up to that backstop.

You now have the EU side saying, but you agreed, and the UK side saying, we have changed our mind.

UK cant and wont sign it unless it is time limited, that's the reality. If that isn't accepted by the EU then that's it, no deal it will be.

don'tbesilly

13,933 posts

163 months

Tuesday 16th October 2018
quotequote all
Coolbanana the Assassin said:
Saw this and thought............................
Walt

rofl



The Dangerous Elk

4,642 posts

77 months

Tuesday 16th October 2018
quotequote all
gooner1 said:
Ghibli said:
JagLover said:
Ghibli said:
What is the answer?

Should the EU let us continue as if we are a member of the EU without being one or the UK settle for a backstop until we can find a solution.
If the EU continue with its current stance then we leave without a deal. The result of the referendum was not conditional upon obtaining agreement with the EU.
So the answer is to simply blame the EU for letting us leave.
Letting us leave?
In is the mind set of the "infected"

crankedup

25,764 posts

243 months

Tuesday 16th October 2018
quotequote all
don'tbesilly said:
Coolbanana the Assassin said:
Saw this and thought............................
Walt

rofl
Made me smile tbh, but then why go around a problem when you can cut right through it, buy a chicken to lay fresh eggs.

JNW1

7,787 posts

194 months

Tuesday 16th October 2018
quotequote all
jsf said:
There will be no physical border, even with no deal. UK wont build it, Ireland wont build it.
I tend to agree but if we end-up in a no-deal scenario how in practical terms will the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland then be enforced?

soupdragon1

4,052 posts

97 months

Tuesday 16th October 2018
quotequote all
Reading between the lines, and listening to Teresa May yesterday, I think the next stage involves her 'squeezing' the DUP a little bit so that they give concessions to get the backstop signed off properly. Whether it works or not I don't know, but you get the feeling she is preparing to put them under pressure.

She can do this, by negotiating a special status for NI (which the DUP don't want) but if its better negotiated, and presented in such a way that it truly does benefit Northern Ireland and its people, the DUP will be under pressure if they did actually refuse it, effectively looking the gift horse in the mouth and punching it in the face.

The key element is the Union - and how it can be described as yes, you are still in the Union, but you are getting a special status to trade with the EU. The tricky bit is stopping the DUP turning that around and saying 'we're not the same as the rest of the UK so therefore the union is compromised' as that will be their default take on it.




anonymous-user

54 months

Tuesday 16th October 2018
quotequote all
JNW1 said:
I tend to agree but if we end-up in a no-deal scenario how in practical terms will the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland then be enforced?
The majority of movements, it wont be.

For major movements such as agriculture, via the systems that are pretty much used now anyway for checks on health and standards, away from the border. This will be built upon to give a more robust away from the border system, but initially a blind eye will be shown to whats going on.

Anyone who says otherwise doesn't live in the real world.

anonymous-user

54 months

Tuesday 16th October 2018
quotequote all
The Dangerous Elk said:
gooner1 said:
Ghibli said:
JagLover said:
Ghibli said:
What is the answer?

Should the EU let us continue as if we are a member of the EU without being one or the UK settle for a backstop until we can find a solution.
If the EU continue with its current stance then we leave without a deal. The result of the referendum was not conditional upon obtaining agreement with the EU.
So the answer is to simply blame the EU for letting us leave.
Letting us leave?
In is the mind set of the "infected"
If we leave with no deal it will be because we left the EU.

The will of the people.

don'tbesilly

13,933 posts

163 months

Tuesday 16th October 2018
quotequote all
soupdragon1 said:
Reading between the lines, and listening to Teresa May yesterday, I think the next stage involves her 'squeezing' the DUP a little bit so that they give concessions to get the backstop signed off properly. Whether it works or not I don't know, but you get the feeling she is preparing to put them under pressure.

She can do this, by negotiating a special status for NI (which the DUP don't want) but if its better negotiated, and presented in such a way that it truly does benefit Northern Ireland and its people, the DUP will be under pressure if they did actually refuse it, effectively looking the gift horse in the mouth and punching it in the face.

The key element is the Union - and how it can be described as yes, you are still in the Union, but you are getting a special status to trade with the EU. The tricky bit is stopping the DUP turning that around and saying 'we're not the same as the rest of the UK so therefore the union is compromised' as that will be their default take on it.
For tricky, read impossible, based on Fosters recent talks with the media, your default is and will be the correct one.


paulrockliffe

15,701 posts

227 months

Tuesday 16th October 2018
quotequote all
jsf said:
You now have the EU side saying, but you agreed, and the UK side saying, we have changed our mind.
Actually it's the EU that have rowed back from the December position, the wording of the text clearly applies to the whole of the UK, rather than just NI. In January it was pointed out that we could use that to park the whole UK in the backstop to cherry-pick the benefits of the SM and CU without being within those constructs if there is no better deal on offer.

The EU immediately clarified that it didn't mean that, but UK law is based on what's written rather than taking the purposive approach that the EU does. So there's a disconnect there, but not on the UK side.

The UK hasn't pushed this point because there are a number of other elements of the December text that are self-contradictory to the extent that it's unworkable and the resulting outcome isn't what the UK is aiming for anyway, so negotiating in good faith (!) means it's not worth fighting over.

As an aside, the above is the reason that ECJ oversight isn't workable for the UK.

slow_poke

1,855 posts

234 months

Tuesday 16th October 2018
quotequote all
jsf said:
It's looking ever more likely the only way out is the EU have to accept what was agreed in the end of stage 1 fudge on the backstop wont be signed up to. (remember the day after Davis saying it was bullst and the EU scrambling to get some legal wording put on paper? I do)

At the time i said it was a bullst can kicking exercise to allow the face saving required to get onto stage 2. Everything that has happened since backs that up and there really was no intent to sign up to that backstop agreement. Since then the politics on the ground has made it impossible to sign up to that backstop.

You now have the EU side saying, but you agreed, and the UK side saying, we have changed our mind.
Sounds like that's been a whole waste of time, and bad faith negotiations. Agreeing something, then changing your mind?

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