How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 5)
Discussion
don'tbesilly said:
For tricky, read impossible, based on Fosters recent talks with the media, your default is and will be the correct one.
In terms of impossible, I almost agree. The ways things are right now, yes, impossible. But if T May can dress it up in a way that it is truly a benefit for NI, with no 'underlying' risk to the Union, then it will become very difficult for the DUP to smack that gift horse in the mouth without causing irreversible damage to their status amongst the NI voter. She could lose some of the moderate unionist vote on the back of something like that.And on the other hand, for the moderate Nationalist - if NI has a special status, the risk of a United Ireland vote diminishes for that population, and that's what the DUP fear the most. Moderate nationalists would quite like a special status for NI, and there would be no need to consider a United Ireland at that point - but a hard Brexit will move a lot of them towards a United Ireland preference, considering how bad a hard brexit is.
So a nicely dressed up special status that the T May can sell to the DUP, and the DUP can sell to their voters, could actually be the best tactic for them. A little bit of leeway with a backstop, while initially looking like concession/weakness, might actually give back some strength to the Union overall.
Ghibli said:
If we leave with no deal it will be because we left the EU.
The will of the people.
Correct, our decision to leave the EU.The will of the people.
Not the EU letting us leave. Btw, did you not say Parliment would not pass a no deal
leave? You really do need to make your mind up on what scenario you wish to present.
slow_poke said:
Ghibli said:
JagLover said:
EU scraps plans for Brexit summit statement on future trade deal
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/16/e...
It seems to me that everything since last November/December in the "negotiations" has been a complete waste of time.
The UK government cannot accept the EUs position on the NI border and so if the EU continue with that stance there is no deal to be had. May's approach of signing up to some fudged declaration while knowing she couldn't meet the EU's expectations over NI seems entirely pointless.
What is the answer? https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/16/e...
It seems to me that everything since last November/December in the "negotiations" has been a complete waste of time.
The UK government cannot accept the EUs position on the NI border and so if the EU continue with that stance there is no deal to be had. May's approach of signing up to some fudged declaration while knowing she couldn't meet the EU's expectations over NI seems entirely pointless.
Should the EU let us continue as if we are a member of the EU without being one or the UK settle for a backstop until we can find a solution.
Where do we go now:
1. A no deal brexit, catastrophic down turn in the UK economy. Tories hope they can just blame it all on the EU. That’s very high risk and more likely a Corbyn government and Tories out of office for a generation. Upside is if brexit went badly Nigel promised he would leave Britain. Since he is now divorced he may have to stay and suffer like the rest of us.
2. EU buy Chequers. This is also unlikely, Chequers really really does not work.
3. TM makes more concessions to get EU agreement. The question is will it get past the ERG in Parliament even if it risks 1. I doubt it will since the EFG do not believe in facts and experts.
This leaves a limited range of options:
1. The EU drops the demand for a backstop for NI in the withdrawal agreement. This is a possibility because they know the UK cannot accept a border in NI either. It kicks the cliff 18 months down the road.
2. TM agrees we have not reached an agreement and asks for an extension to Art 50. Since there is no deal no Parliamentary vote is needed. The ERG will explode, but while they may get the votes to trigger a leadership contest they do not have the votes to win. So they risk ending up with a tougher leader who will call their bluff. I expect the EU will agree, it has to be unanimous, but it keeps the UK contributions, the UK still follows all the rules but has no say, and it avoids any adverse effects of no deal.
At the moment it is little to do with the EU. Just now Mrs May cannot establish an agreed positions with her own cabinet, never mind her party, never mind parliament. She is also restricted by probably having to agree with the DUP. The EU are doing very little because they know until some sort of position is aligned in London, an agreement cannot be made with rEU.
Mrr T said:
TM made various promises and set red lines on brexit. The EU listened to TM and has negotiated on the basis of those commitments. They have suggested a proposal for Ireland which meets TM red lines, and allowed the UK to present alternative proposals. The UK has been un able to come up with more than fudge, a technology border which might take years to deliver, and Chequers which does not work. TM then added a new red line on any border in the sea. This red line was never been in any manifesto, it’s never been tested with the people of NI, and it seems might not have been a TM red line till the DUP told her it was.
It's almost like the EU didn't actually think what Brexit meant. Can you seriously suggest that when the United Kingdom stated that they were to leave, the EU thought "of course, parts of it will remain on our side of a completely new customs border"? Is that what leaving means to you?Your comments about TM not listing this in her red lines don't stand a moment's scrutiny. She also didn't list annexing North Wales, or imposing punishment beatings on ginger people, but clearly those aren't options the EU should be considering.
PurpleMoonlight said:
You have to feel sorry for business.
Less than six months to go and they still don't know whether or not tariffs will or will not apply to a huge range of imported goods.
I run a business, I am more concerned about if the things we do appeal to our customers. New R&D, innovation and creativity.Less than six months to go and they still don't know whether or not tariffs will or will not apply to a huge range of imported goods.
We will always be taxed and shafted in some type of direction, we will adapt.
All is good, politicians of all flavours are just in our way, that's always been the case, clearly less bureaucracy is always better.
KrissKross said:
I run a business, I am more concerned about if the things we do appeal to our customers. New R&D, innovation and creativity.
We will always be taxed and shafted in some type of direction, we will adapt.
All is good, politicians of all flavours are just in our way, that's always been the case, clearly less bureaucracy is always better.
Bet brexit doesn't bring less bureaucracy.We will always be taxed and shafted in some type of direction, we will adapt.
All is good, politicians of all flavours are just in our way, that's always been the case, clearly less bureaucracy is always better.
Tuna said:
Ghibli said:
If we leave with no deal it will be because we left the EU.
The will of the people.
That is kinda the whole point. It is the will of the people to leave.The will of the people.
They certainly can't blame the EU for letting them leave or any other reason.
Ghibli said:
They can't blame anyone but themselves if we get a no deal Brexit.
They certainly can't blame the EU for letting them leave or any other reason.
What is with this whole 'blame' narrative? Does it stem from a mindset that believes that the UK will be looking for someone to blame? I am not looking for anyone to blame. I voted out, and hopefully, that is what we will get (rather than some Chequers style fudge) They certainly can't blame the EU for letting them leave or any other reason.
Now, if we end up in a scenario where the peoples of both the UK and various EU nations are suffering unnecessarily (trade-wise) as a result of a no-deal Brexit, then I will lay at least some of the blame at the doors of EU politicians, both at the Brussels level and that of the national Governments that drive policy within the EU (Mostly France and Germany)
I will blame them insofar as they will have caused the people to suffer harm simply in order to preserve an entirely artificial political construct. (It is the job of Governments to help and protect their peoples, not to deliberately harm them)
I will also blame the British Government for their part in this sorry debacle of a negotiation, specifically for being so utterly inept and lacking in vision.
What I will not do is blame the people who voted (either way) for exercising their democratic choice. The people decided, and the people have rightly expected their elected politicians to do a better job than has been the case.
Do you blame the politicians in the EU for making the EU so toxic as to be a place that the majority of UK voters (who actually participated) no longer wish to be a member of it? Or do you subscribe to the rather more simplistic "It's cos the Daily Mail innit!" mantra?
andymadmak said:
Ghibli said:
They can't blame anyone but themselves if we get a no deal Brexit.
They certainly can't blame the EU for letting them leave or any other reason.
What is with this whole 'blame' narrative? Does it stem from a mindset that believes that the UK will be looking for someone to blame? I am not looking for anyone to blame. I voted out, and hopefully, that is what we will get (rather than some Chequers style fudge) They certainly can't blame the EU for letting them leave or any other reason.
Now, if we end up in a scenario where the peoples of both the UK and various EU nations are suffering unnecessarily (trade-wise) as a result of a no-deal Brexit, then I will lay at least some of the blame at the doors of EU politicians, both at the Brussels level and that of the national Governments that drive policy within the EU (Mostly France and Germany)
I will blame them insofar as they will have caused the people to suffer harm simply in order to preserve an entirely artificial political construct. (It is the job of Governments to help and protect their peoples, not to deliberately harm them)
I will also blame the British Government for their part in this sorry debacle of a negotiation, specifically for being so utterly inept and lacking in vision.
What I will not do is blame the people who voted (either way) for exercising their democratic choice. The people decided, and the people have rightly expected their elected politicians to do a better job than has been the case.
Do you blame the politicians in the EU for making the EU so toxic as to be a place that the majority of UK voters (who actually participated) no longer wish to be a member of it? Or do you subscribe to the rather more simplistic "It's cos the Daily Mail innit!" mantra?
Brexit is the will of the UK people.
andymadmak said:
I will also blame the British Government for their part in this sorry debacle of a negotiation, specifically for being so utterly inept and lacking in vision.
What I will not do is blame the people who voted (either way) for exercising their democratic choice. The people decided, and the people have rightly expected their elected politicians to do a better job than has been the case.
yep, I'd argue that if leaving causes a massive catastrophe then we never should have been offered the vote in the first place What I will not do is blame the people who voted (either way) for exercising their democratic choice. The people decided, and the people have rightly expected their elected politicians to do a better job than has been the case.
PurpleMoonlight said:
Bet brexit doesn't bring less bureaucracy.
They can’t blame the imposed cap on Pizza sizes and pies on the EU - ironically the power of the Italian lobbyists would have prevented any restriction on the calorie count of a key national dish. Our own nanny state quangos can more than make up for the EU banana shape brigade.nyxster said:
They can’t blame the imposed cap on Pizza sizes and pies on the EU - ironically the power of the Italian lobbyists would have prevented any restriction on the calorie count of a key national dish. Our own nanny state quangos can more than make up for the EU banana shape brigade.
Yes, by making applicable regulations specificity for the needs of the Uk population, in this case Fat ones who constantly stuff their faces.PurpleMoonlight said:
You have to feel sorry for business.
Less than six months to go and they still don't know whether or not tariffs will or will not apply to a huge range of imported goods.
That needs the qualifier "business which imports from the EU".Less than six months to go and they still don't know whether or not tariffs will or will not apply to a huge range of imported goods.
The same tariffs will be applied to ROTW goods whether we end up in the customs union or not since as I understand it we've submitted a tariff schedule to the WTO which is equivalent to the EU one (which has already been objected to by a few countries)..
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