Theresa May (Vol.2)

[Ayahuasca]

saaby93 said:

Ayahuasca said:

As it is the Theresa May thread rather than the Brexit thread, may I say that I think she has been a terrible, terrible negotiator. I do sort of admire her doggedness, and she has a st job to do, and she is doing what she thinks is right, so some kudos there, but by god she is a bad negotiator. And I hate the way she is always pictured smiling and laughing with the EU negotiators, when she ought to be snarling at them.

Yes Boris or Nigel would have come away with a much better deal using that approach
What would it have been

For starters, not agreeing to negotiate the financial settlement first, and the rest later. Also she agreed to cooperate on security and intelligence sharing, and to guarantee EU citizens rights in the UK, whilst getting absolutely nothing in return. And she made the Irish border question a UK problem, when it is purely an EU problem. Up to them to solve it. She allowed the EU to get away with making no proposals of their own, so all they had to do to ‘negotiate’ was to keep rejecting any proposals that the UK side made. I could go on.....

[Nickgnome]

saaby93 said:

50 MPs in parliament. How do you know your 400 odd isnt closer to 320?

ETA Sorry do SInn Fein and the Speaker not vote? If so there are 642 voting MPs

Edited by saaby93 on Thursday 13th December 22:01

On a matter of principal i do not believe Sinn Fein have ever voted in parliament.

[Nickgnome]

Ayahuasca said:

For starters, not agreeing to negotiate the financial settlement first, and the rest later. Also she agreed to cooperate on security and intelligence sharing, and to guarantee EU citizens rights in the UK, whilst getting absolutely nothing in return. And she made the Irish border question a UK problem, when it is purely an EU problem. Up to them to solve it. She allowed the EU to get away with making no proposals of their own, so all they had to do to ‘negotiate’ was to keep rejecting any proposals that the UK side made. I could go on.....

So you think using Eu citizens and equally UK citizens is a good place to start bargaining?

Security and Intelligence, really?

Wierd attitude

[Ayahuasca]

Nickgnome said:

I think your last sentence is pointless. Negotiations are about principal and finding common ground. Being angry will result in stalemate. I was a bit that way many years ago until trained properly in negotiation. Be under no illusion though it is a grind.

Yes I know but it gives the impression of being a walkover, which she has been. The EU side have been mercilessly mocking her (taking the piss out of her dancing, stuff about cherries on the cake, etc). Can you see Margaret Thatcher standing up for that crap. Being angry in a controlled way is sometimes needed.

[Ayahuasca]

Nickgnome said:

Ayahuasca said:

For starters, not agreeing to negotiate the financial settlement first, and the rest later. Also she agreed to cooperate on security and intelligence sharing, and to guarantee EU citizens rights in the UK, whilst getting absolutely nothing in return. And she made the Irish border question a UK problem, when it is purely an EU problem. Up to them to solve it. She allowed the EU to get away with making no proposals of their own, so all they had to do to ‘negotiate’ was to keep rejecting any proposals that the UK side made. I could go on.....

So you think using Eu citizens and equally UK citizens is a good place to start bargaining?

Security and Intelligence, really?

Wierd attitude

Has the EU agreed the full rights of UK citizens resident in the EU?

Have they agreed to share intelligence and security information with the UK?

Weird spelling.

[Nickgnome]

Ayahuasca said:

Yes I know but it gives the impression of being a walkover, which she has been. The EU side have been mercilessly mocking her (taking the piss out of her dancing, stuff about cherries on the cake, etc). Can you see Margaret Thatcher standing up for that crap. Being angry in a controlled way is sometimes needed.

I can’t explain it any clearer. She does not carry out the actual negotiation.

As to the dancing perhaps she should not have done such a naive thing. She was mocked much more viciously for that in the UK than she got from the Eu.

You are not seeing past hype and media headlines.

Anger is only for the uniformed electorate back home. Thatcher was a great performer in this regard. May is not good at media manipulation.

Negotiation is all about finding common ground and getting those items put to bed quickly and moving on.

Just because the EU layed out their cards 2 years ago and have not move much is not their fault. Your anger should be aimed at those that told you they need us as much as we need them. It was never true.

Edited by Nickgnome on Thursday 13th December 22:24

[Ayahuasca]

Nickgnome said:

Ayahuasca said:

Yes I know but it gives the impression of being a walkover, which she has been. The EU side have been mercilessly mocking her (taking the piss out of her dancing, stuff about cherries on the cake, etc). Can you see Margaret Thatcher standing up for that crap. Being angry in a controlled way is sometimes needed.

I can’t explain it any clearer. She does not carry out the actual negotiation.

As to the dancing perhaps she should not have done such a naive thing. She was mocked much more viciously for that in the UK than she got from the Eu.

You are not seeing past hype and media headlines.

Anger is only for the uniformed electorate back home. Thatcher was a great performer in this regard. May is not good at media manipulation.

Negotiation is all about finding common ground and getting those items put to bed quickly and moving on.

Just because the EU layed out their cards 2 years ago and have not move much is not their fault. Your anger should be aimed at those that told you they need us as much as we need them. It was never true.

Edited by Nickgnome on Thursday 13th December 22:24

The uninformed electorate back home is who give her, or take away, her mandate. See last general election result for further detail. That election was supposed to give her a stronger negotiating position. So no, I do not agree with you that hype and media headlines are without importance.

[Nickgnome]

Ayahuasca said:

The uninformed electorate back home is who give her, or take away, her mandate. See last general election result for further detail. That election was supposed to give her a stronger negotiating position. So no, I do not agree with you that hype and media headlines are without importance.

Did i say they were not important. I was ssaying how gullible many of the electorate are.

Maggie’s faux rage in speeches in parliament and on the television evidenced that very well.

[Ayahuasca]

Nickgnome said:

Negotiation is all about finding common ground and getting those items put to bed quickly and moving on.

Just because the EU layed out their cards 2 years ago and have not move much is not their fault

I am sure you can see the conflict between your two statements.

If the UK had also put its cards on the table two years ago and not moved, where is the common ground?

[Nickgnome]

ash73 said:

They agreed an algorithm to calculate the divorce bill, the number isn't even mentioned in the WA.

In my experience the way it generally works is you come up with an algorithm and feed in some parameters, but you already know what number you want and you just tweak the parameters, and algorithm, until you can justify what you wanted in the first place.

It does sometimes modify your expectation when you see the calculation, but it's not just a case of calculating it bottom up and out pops a number.

I think May will have influenced things quite a lot, for example she will have set the transition period and risk profile for liabilities (compare where we ended up to the HoL paper).

I'm intrigued to know why she ended up with the crude backstop rather than Davies' virtual border alternative, I think she took fundamentally the wrong track there.

The £39bn is an estimate not a fixed number. Ther is no algorithm as such.

There is a full build up of the constituent parts if you want to look. I think 50% was just for the 2 year transition so basically as we pay now. The reminder is paid over the next 20 odd years.

I’d attach the link but it’s on my desktop but it was easy to find.

[Murph7355]

Ayahuasca said:

Nickgnome said:

Negotiation is all about finding common ground and getting those items put to bed quickly and moving on.

Just because the EU layed out their cards 2 years ago and have not move much is not their fault

I am sure you can see the conflict between your two statements.

If the UK had also put its cards on the table two years ago and not moved, where is the common ground?

The UK did. Remainers castigated the UK for it ("cake").

In a couple of very, very fundamental areas there is no common ground. There cannot be. Both parties want substantive control over key UK affairs. Only one can really have it.

Getting an FTA with the EU is possible without any of the strings attached that Leave voters dislike so much. But...it seems evident now that getting to that point from the start point of being a member is impossible.

If we want a sensible FTA, the logical approach is now therefore to start fully out. (Which is admittedly a massively wasted opportunity on both counterparts' parts, but so be it).

[NRS]

saaby93 said:

air point
The issue is youre confusing May's deal with a bad deal
Its the middle ground between the ERG style Brexit and Remain
It's Brexit with a trade and border deal
If its better than no deal, it's also better than a bad deal.
Let's see what tweeks come back to try to satisfy the DUP, but all it has to do is satisfy a cross party majority
It ought to satisfy the SNP as it's better on fishing than Remain if they can give up on party politics
Nothing happening now until January anyways so the pressure off

I was watching a Netflix series and the episode starts with a quote. One was "It's best not to stand in the middle of the road. You get hit by the traffic from both sides" or similar to that. Sums up May's position perfectly. She can't go for a hard Brexit as it's very likely a combination of remainers and soft Brexiters are the majority, yet to not leave is undemocratic. But since many people on both sides are strongly for staying in EU or leaving fully then neither support the compromise. Hence the situation we are in now where everyone hates her basically. And ironically the quote is from Maggie T.

Also the public have a complete lack of understanding the complexity of the negotiations, and how to negotiate to actually solve things for both sides it seems. Saying nothing has been done (lots is done in the background in a massively complicated negotiation. And the public seem to think negotiating is just going "I'll say my point until you eventually do as I say". Which doesn't work in this situation. I understand many of the reasons Brexiters support Brexit, but they really underestimate how much the UK means to Europe. They don't want the UK to leave, but are perfectly happy for it to do so. And it's not just being nasty in regards to keeping UK out of some areas for negotiation - the same applies to Norway who pays a huge amount of money without official say on many of the rules.

Anyway, this might lighten things up for a few seconds if you have not seen it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1qchHZd4SVk

[Tuna]

Derek Smith said:

Tuna said:

Bill said:

s2art said:

Nope. Everyone was told in no uncertain terms that we would be leaving the EU, the SM, the CU and the remit of the ECJ. It couldnt have been clearer, and that precludes the Norway option (but not Canada+)

That's irrelevant as it was dismissed as project Fear.

No. That was agreed and accepted by most Leavers as a fact. The Leave campaign agreed that leaving meant SM, CU and specifically the ECJ. Even the EU made it clear that you cannot 'cherry pick' from the four freedoms. No-one called leaving the CU etc. project fear.

Project Fear was the claim that choosing that route would mean an instant 'cliff edge' recession the moment the vote was called, 100,000 job losses and an emergency budget. Leave said that such predictions were 'made up' to scare people into voting to Remain.

So the leavers believed the remain propaganda and not the lies of the leave campaign. It's logic captain, but not as we know it.

I didn't believe the rubbish Johnson et al put out. If I had I might suggest I would only have myself to blame. I didn't believe that Johnson and Farage wanted the Norwegian option that they mentioned, not through any deep political inside information but because they had a history of saying things they did not believe in.

I think you should re-read what I said.

All three parties - Remain, Leave and the EU said that leaving would probably involve exit from SM, CU and ECJ. There was no 'believing' - it was just a fact stated by all of the main actors during the referendum. A handful of people talked about alternatives that looked a lot like parts of the current arrangement ('a union of customs'), and that idea is still around. None of that was described as 'project fear' in any meaningful way.

It's pretty simple and a matter of record - you can go check the history on this forum, in the news sites or elsewhere. Saying otherwise is either a remarkable bit of revisionist history, simply disingenuous, or the first sign of dementia.

[Crackie]

[Tony427]

Fermit and Sexy Sarah said:

I'm not suggesting it's looking bad for Theresa May, but Paul Gascoigne has just arrived at 10 Downing Street with a fishing rod and a cooked chicken.

This did not get the recognition it deserved.

[Cobnapint]

So it's 'bus fare home' for TM after a bruising night in Brussels.

Far from getting assurances, the EU have 'removed' some things from the text of the deal. I thought they said it couldn't be altered!

[JagLover]

Cobnapint said:

So it's 'bus fare home' for TM after a bruising night in Brussels.

Far from getting assurances, the EU have 'removed' some things from the text of the deal. I thought they said it couldn't be altered!

Well the 200 who voted for her got what she promised.

[thetrickcyclist]

It would be ironic indeed if after this latest shafting she turned round and said no deal!

Of course the EU will eventually step back and graciously give her back what has just been taken.

But she won't get anything else, but it will be portrayed as a magnificent victory.

[PurpleMoonlight]

Cobnapint said:

So it's 'bus fare home' for TM after a bruising night in Brussels.

Far from getting assurances, the EU have 'removed' some things from the text of the deal. I thought they said it couldn't be altered!

What have they removed?

[wc98]

PurpleMoonlight said:

Cobnapint said:

So it's 'bus fare home' for TM after a bruising night in Brussels.

Far from getting assurances, the EU have 'removed' some things from the text of the deal. I thought they said it couldn't be altered!

What have they removed?

aiui the paragraph that stated the backstop would only be activated in good faith and not with the intention of keeping the uk subject to it in perpetuity.