Theresa May (Vol.2)
Discussion
Puggit said:
kurt535 said:
Funny how brexit self harmers are bhing TM having 'ONLY' 2/3rds majority of her party is a weak result yet the brexit vote outcome is quite ok, despite how tiny it was. Double standards!!
Most of her votes were 'the payroll' - MPs who have roles thanks to TM.Most of the free MPs voted against her.
She's in trouble.
Each leading candidate brings 5 or so MP's from his gang, so they all voted yes.
toppstuff said:
Jonesy23 said:
toppstuff said:
The parliamentary majority will never allow WTO rules / hard Brexit. Never.
You do realise that it's the default option and only needs the clock to run out? It's the only thing they don't need to agree on because the already allowed it. Anything else requires - at a minimum - a vote to pass it. Plus for some of the options extra legislation and the agreement of the ECJ (for remain / A50 withdrawl) or the EU members.
So saying it won't happen isn't something that can be claimed with absolute certainty.
Greg66 said:
I’m not sure it’s quite that simple.
Say 200 Con MPs positively like the May deal. That doesn’t mean only 200 would vote for it.
It’s like this: 10 people out of 30 positively like celery. But if you offered all 30 a choice for lunch between celery and a dogst sandwich, I bet more than 10 would take the celery.
Then she is Marmite. She does not have the numbers to get her Brexit deal through .Labour are interested in one thing an Election and they will not lift a finger to help her even if it is so obviously in the interest of the Country to do so.Say 200 Con MPs positively like the May deal. That doesn’t mean only 200 would vote for it.
It’s like this: 10 people out of 30 positively like celery. But if you offered all 30 a choice for lunch between celery and a dogst sandwich, I bet more than 10 would take the celery.
Above all I will take from this our current politics is out of date and just not up to serving the publics best interests
voyds9 said:
...Or are the above two going to strike a deal and kick Article 50 down the road a couple of years and risk being annihilated at the ballot box
People keep talking about extending the Article 50 deadline but I don't see how that can happen since it needs both the UK Parliament to agree to it and the EU 27 as well. And extend it to what end? If the EU continue to say it is this deal, no deal or no Brexit then you'd just get more of nothing useful happening for however long it is extended.toppstuff said:
Puggit said:
kurt535 said:
Funny how brexit self harmers are bhing TM having 'ONLY' 2/3rds majority of her party is a weak result yet the brexit vote outcome is quite ok, despite how tiny it was. Double standards!!
Most of her votes were 'the payroll' - MPs who have roles thanks to TM.Most of the free MPs voted against her.
She's in trouble.
He’s over reaching. He lost.
I agree also that if the deal doesn’t go through and no deal is the only option, it will not get through parliament and hopefully the whole process will collapse and end this self harming madness.
jtremlett said:
voyds9 said:
...Or are the above two going to strike a deal and kick Article 50 down the road a couple of years and risk being annihilated at the ballot box
People keep talking about extending the Article 50 deadline but I don't see how that can happen since it needs both the UK Parliament to agree to it and the EU 27 as well. And extend it to what end? If the EU continue to say it is this deal, no deal or no Brexit then you'd just get more of nothing useful happening for however long it is extended.Puggit said:
Go on then, explain the numbers.
Hang on, wasn’t ajd constantly berated by brexiteers because there was no way that he could know what went on in a closed door meeting between May and Goshn?And yet brexitees now know exactly who voted for what in a closed door secret ballot?
So basically nothing has really changed, except the ERG are tamed and TM is safe to leave at a time of her choosing. She won’t loose a vote of confidence, because Tories, not even the ERG, will vote for unemployment. As for the withdrawal agreement, who knows. Unless the EU blink, we will have an extended A50 until they do, because I can’t see a people’s vote, it’s been denied too many times.
RichB said:
toppstuff said:
You are quoting JRM. He’s over reaching. He lost.
Indeed. He's old news. Boris has had his day. Whatever happens next it won't be either of them in the news... Vanden Saab said:
Derek Smith said:
In other words, she's probably got 12 months. Corbyn is unlikely to try to bring down the government. That wouldn't suit him at all at the present. Further, I don't thin the DUP want to give him a chance at forming a government. Just a thought with that one.
This has, if anything, reinforced her position. Mogg has shown himself to be a poor tactician. Who'd have thought?
Thatcher's position was somewhat different. It was a leadership election. Even then, she got her way, ensuring Hestletine was kept out and Major elected.
It really hasn't, before the vote the talk was of 48 rebels, now the true numbers are out. May is utterly fked. Any chance of pushing through a non-Brexit Brexit have gone. Her only option now is an orderly exit under WTO rules with Labour support. Mogg has played a blinder.... This has, if anything, reinforced her position. Mogg has shown himself to be a poor tactician. Who'd have thought?
Thatcher's position was somewhat different. It was a leadership election. Even then, she got her way, ensuring Hestletine was kept out and Major elected.
I reckon Mogg is the biggest loser in all of this. He tried and failed. In the back-stabbing world of tory politics, there's no greater crime.
She's got a significant majority. She's got it made for another 12 months. She's standing on the carcass of Mogg as he was the leader of the att. coup.
voyds9 said:
But then it becomes a hot potato for the next government and Tories less likely to lose too badly at the election.
Maybe so, but I still find it hard to see how you'd get both Parliament and the EU to agree to it. Particularly so as, in theory, the next election isn't until 2022.I will bet that one thing all sides can agree on is that they don't want to be in this exact same situation in another 4 years time!
968 said:
Quite right. The comments by JRM on the news were appallingly sour grapes.
I agree also that if the deal doesn’t go through and no deal is the only option, it will not get through parliament and hopefully the whole process will collapse and end this self harming madness.
No deal already got through parliament. I'll point you to Section 20 (1) of the Withdrawal Act:I agree also that if the deal doesn’t go through and no deal is the only option, it will not get through parliament and hopefully the whole process will collapse and end this self harming madness.
http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2018/16/enacte...
The Withdrawal Act said:
“exit day” means 29 March 2019 at 11.00 p.m.
In order to stop no deal, parliament has to pass legislation to alter the withdrawal act, and then after that either pass a motion in the house to revoke article 50, or pass legislation providing for a new referendum and then ask the EU for an extension.There is work to be done to avoid no deal.
abzmike said:
So basically nothing has really changed, except the ERG are tamed and TM is safe to leave at a time of her choosing. She won’t loose a vote of confidence, because Tories, not even the ERG, will vote for unemployment. As for the withdrawal agreement, who knows. Unless the EU blink, we will have an extended A50 until they do, because I can’t see a people’s vote, it’s been denied too many times.
The significant change is that May is in for 12 months. She can't be challenged by her MPs for that time. They've effectively strengthened her position. The only other risk to her is Corbyn, but he won't get the DPU to vote with him so he probably won't try. I can't see tory MPs voting for no confidence in their own government.
She might do a Cameron and run away but she'll do it at a time of her choosing. I can't see it myself, but that's immaterial.
There has been a significant change.
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