Theresa May (Vol.2)
Discussion
JustALooseScrew said:
he's (TM) going no where, she's doubled down now with the WA, and there isn't anyone with the balls to go against her.
Is there even a legal parliamentary route to go against her?
Yes, she is PM only so long as she commands a majority of MPs and can win a confidence motion. Is there even a legal parliamentary route to go against her?
Technically, every current Tory MP can vote for her and she could still have to go, if the DUP drops its support, as without them there is no majority.
And because Soubry and Boles and some others have left the Tories already, even the DUP's numbers might not be enough to save her, as her position becomes more precarious if any small number of other MPs defect, say, to the Brexit Party in the light of tomorrow's result (or even just sit on their hands).
Hoink said:
julianm said:
If we just keep fannying about with no mandate from the HoC will the EU kick us out on Nov 1st?
No. They need our money.- notably increased MEPs from euroscpetic parties get elected on the Continent. Not enough to really break things, but enough to cause disruption
- TBP have a good showing here
- in Nov, Tusk and Juncker are out. Verhofstadt and Barnier are pawns
- new incumbents in the EU see carrot rather than stick may be a better way to quell dissension in the ranks
- key EU leaders (Merkel and the non-Macron ones whose citizens are showing discontent) wake up and smell the coffee too
- meanwhile a Brexit favouring replacement for May is in. Reorganised cabinet and gets tough with Tory MPs
- preps for "no deal" focusing on that and the reorg for the next couple of months. Big up the summer, the cricket World Cup, spend time on other key policies that are non-Brexit related. Dissipate the heat
- Sept/Oct have a chat with the new incumbents. Discuss appetite for a more sensible approach. Extend while the WA is rethought or leave with "no deal" but with a plan for sorting the fuller agreement with the new grandes fromages
- possibly even see if the new regime have any desire to change tack in light of the EU election results and extend with a view to seeing how that pans out and then possibly even remain (with an option to depart immediately if it turns to s
t) Will keep taking the drugs
Jimboka said:
‘I’m a mother’ Leadsom has quit.
Does she have such bad judgement that she thinks people would vote for her ?!!
Being a staunch Brexiteer in an area that voted leave I wouldn't consider it bad judgement especially as TBP has said it will not stand against brexiteer tories. Pay back for the election campaign too I would guess. Perfect timing.Does she have such bad judgement that she thinks people would vote for her ?!!
Mark Benson said:
AstonZagato said:
Mark Benson said:
I'm a 'born again' Brexiteer (I voted Remain but it was a head vs heart decision that I've come to regret now we see that 'project fear' has thus far not manifested itself in anything like the dire predictions before the referendum) but I don't think there ever was a 'good deal' to be had - I do however believe an acceptable deal would have been possible with a credible threat of 'no deal'.
We went into the negotiations looking to minimise the harm rather than maximise the opportunity and everything flowed from there.
The people who said that the EU has as much to lose as we do were correct, but the people we sent to the negotiations immediately gave that advantage away. Once you take walking away off the table it becomes simply a begging exercise.
It is an interesting unknown. I too rather believe that, had we entered into the negotiations with "We are going on no deal", we'd now be in a far better position than we are now. However, that ship has sailed. Put even the most rabid "no-deal" Brexiteer into No 10 and we are still faced with the fact that the EU has a WA that they spent 3 years negotiating and they know that parliament is terrified (probably rightly) of an unplanned no deal exit. The EU will not budge. Why would they?We went into the negotiations looking to minimise the harm rather than maximise the opportunity and everything flowed from there.
The people who said that the EU has as much to lose as we do were correct, but the people we sent to the negotiations immediately gave that advantage away. Once you take walking away off the table it becomes simply a begging exercise.
To get back to a point where a threat of leaving without a deal could give us leverage, we'd need to revoke Article 50, plan deeply for a no-deal, build the technical solutions to the NI border problems, ensure we have all the niggly bits like flights, medicine, security-sharing nailed down. Then we could invoke A50 again and negotiate from a position of credible strength.
There are not the numbers in parliament to achieve that. I suspect that an election will end up with just the same muddle as we have at the moment.
I'm not sure what the future holds. We could 'pull the plaster' and leave on WTO, trying to make the best of it or we could revoke until we're better prepared.
Either option will not be welcomed by around 40% of the population while enraging another 10% of the hardliners.
The genie is out of the bottle now though, so we have to do something.
I just don't see a good way out of the current impasse, whatever side of the debate one is on.
techguyone said:
tim0409 said:
The Leader of the House, Andrea Leadsom, has just resigned. I thought May would be gone by Sun/Mon after Euro results, but it now looks like Friday if not sooner...
Trying to think if any other PM has had so many people resign from Cabinet before.She must be the winner in recent times.
techguyone said:
Trying to think if any other PM has had so many people resign from Cabinet before.
just do yourself a favour and keep away from Westminster and in particular Downing st. Anyone just ambling innocently by could find themselves in the Cabinet and who would want that.Its just a complete and utter clusterf
k by all 650 of the gobstestechguyone said:
Trying to think if any other PM has had so many people resign from Cabinet before.
The BBC have just answered that (with a graph) which looks like:May 36 in 2 years; Blair 29 in 10 years; Thatcher 25 in 11 years; Major 23 in 6 years; Brown 17 in 2 years; Cameron 14 in 6 years. So that's one thing May's beaten all comers at.
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