Brexit Referendum - top two choices

Brexit Referendum - top two choices

Poll: Brexit Referendum - top two choices

Total Members Polled: 443

May's Deal then No Deal: 16%
No Deal then May's Deal: 24%
May's Deal then Remain: 7%
Remain then May's Deal: 23%
Remain then No Deal: 12%
No Deal then Remain: 19%
Author
Discussion

silentbrown

Original Poster:

8,793 posts

115 months

Tuesday 4th December 2018
quotequote all
My guess is that *if* another referendum is needed it will have three choices,, something like this

  • May's deal
  • No deal
  • Remain
The first choice to get 50% of votes cast wins. If no option gets 50%, then lowest scoring choice is eliminated, and those votes are reallocated according to the second choice. So if you vote Remain then No Deal, but Remain scores lowest in the first round, your vote gets reassigned to "No Deal".

The PH poll won't calculate this automatically so I'll check in and update a "result" as we go along, if anyone can be arsed to get out of bed and vote smile


15:30 After 31 votes, Remain 36%, No Deal 46%, May 19%. May eliminated, giving No Deal 59% to Remain 42%. No Deal Winning
16:20 After 66 votes, Remain 30%, No Deal 48%, May 22%. May eliminated, giving No Deal 62% to Remain 38%. No Deal Winning
18:24 After 83 votes, Remain 28%, No Deal 52%, May 20%. No Deal wins outright
21:30 After 133 votes, Remain 28%, No Deal 50%, May 22%. May eliminated, giving No Deal 64% to Remain 36%. No Deal Winning
08:30 After 177 votes, Remain 30%, No Deal 48%, May 22%. May eliminated, giving No Deal 63% to Remain 37%. No Deal Winning
13:45 After 244 votes, Remain 34%, No Deal 46%, May 21%. May eliminated, giving No Deal 61% to Remain 40%. No Deal Winning

Edited by silentbrown on Wednesday 5th December 14:43

amusingduck

9,396 posts

135 months

Tuesday 4th December 2018
quotequote all
Your proposed 2nd ref question doesn't meet the guidelines IMO.

A referendum question should present the options clearly, simply and neutrally. So it should:
• be easy to understand
• be to the point
• be unambiguous
• avoid encouraging voters to consider one response more favourably than another
• avoid misleading voters

• Is the question written in plain language? That is, language that:
– uses short sentences (around 15–20 words)
– is simple, direct, and concise
– uses familiar words, and avoids jargon or technical terms that would not be easily understood by most people
• Is the question written in neutral language, avoiding words that suggest a judgement or opinion, either explicitly or implicitly?
• Is the information contained in the question factual, describing the question and the options clearly and accurately?
• Does the question avoid assuming anything about voters’ views?

silentbrown

Original Poster:

8,793 posts

115 months

Tuesday 4th December 2018
quotequote all
amusingduck said:
Your proposed 2nd ref question doesn't meet the guidelines IMO.
Please suggest one that does. I hadn't actually specified the question, just the answers!

amusingduck

9,396 posts

135 months

Tuesday 4th December 2018
quotequote all
silentbrown said:
amusingduck said:
Your proposed 2nd ref question doesn't meet the guidelines IMO.
Please suggest one that does. I hadn't actually specified the question, just the answers!
I'm not sure there actually is one, for Remain/MayDeal/NoDeal.

Hub

6,413 posts

197 months

Tuesday 4th December 2018
quotequote all
Remain in the lead! On PH! Someone get a screen grab, quick!

Russian Troll Bot

24,942 posts

226 months

Tuesday 4th December 2018
quotequote all
silentbrown said:
My guess is that *if* another referendum is needed it will have three choices,, something like this

  • May's deal
  • No deal
  • Remain
The first choice to get 50% of votes cast wins. If no option gets 50%, then lowest scoring choice is eliminated, and those votes are reallocated according to the second choice. So if you vote Remain then No Deal, but Remain scores lowest in the first round, your vote gets reassigned to "No Deal".

The PH poll won't calculate this automatically so I'll check in and update a "result", if anyone can be arsed to get out of bed and vote smile
The only way it could work is May's deal vs no deal, since the Remain option was eliminated in the previous vote. In fact, if that was the case I'd almost be willing to support the idea, just to see the reaction from those who claim to want one for the sake of democracy but won't admit they just want the previous vote overturned.

bloomen

6,852 posts

158 months

Tuesday 4th December 2018
quotequote all
I can't see no deal being an option.

I really don't see how remain could be either. There's no government that would take it on. Labour certainly wouldn't. I guess the only one would be the existing one if it can hang together.

Colour me stumped.

Edited by bloomen on Tuesday 4th December 15:31

Trophy Husband

3,924 posts

106 months

Tuesday 4th December 2018
quotequote all
Hub said:
Remain in the lead! On PH! Someone get a screen grab, quick!
Common sense, simple common sense.

HustleRussell

24,602 posts

159 months

Tuesday 4th December 2018
quotequote all
As per the original referendum, I have (as a casually interested voter) tried to find out a neatly packaged, impartial, point-by-point summary of the various deals and the associated implications. As per the original referendum, the information isn't good enough for me to decide. Hence as per the original referendum, I would tend to lean towards the status quo... except I don't even know what that is anymore.

JagLover

42,265 posts

234 months

Tuesday 4th December 2018
quotequote all
If we had three options it would be No deal then Remain for me.

Out of all the eventual outcomes May's deal, IMO, is the worst.

eldar

21,614 posts

195 months

Tuesday 4th December 2018
quotequote all
Kind of sums up the whole of Brexit, we cant even work out the questions, let alone the answers.

I voted Brexity Mcbrexitface

Leicester Loyal

4,517 posts

121 months

Tuesday 4th December 2018
quotequote all
No deal then remain.

But by having 3 choices, it's splitting up votes.

It should be leave with no deal or leave with May's deal, we've already chosen to leave.

silentbrown

Original Poster:

8,793 posts

115 months

Tuesday 4th December 2018
quotequote all
Leicester Loyal said:
But by having 3 choices, it's splitting up votes.

It should be leave with no deal or leave with May's deal, we've already chosen to leave.
Assuming everyone who votes remain as first choice would instead then vote for their second, we can see if that would make a difference to the outcome.

bad company

18,484 posts

265 months

Tuesday 4th December 2018
quotequote all
Hub said:
Remain in the lead! On PH! Someone get a screen grab, quick!
Too late now.

BlackLabel

13,251 posts

122 months

Tuesday 4th December 2018
quotequote all
eldar said:
Kind of sums up the whole of Brexit, we cant even work out the questions, let alone the answers.
laugh

frisbee

4,957 posts

109 months

Tuesday 4th December 2018
quotequote all
A poll running from 3pm to 5pm on a weekday....

Retired and unemployed bias maybe?

anonymous-user

53 months

Tuesday 4th December 2018
quotequote all
What we need now, now that Noel Edmonds is back on TV, is a Deal or No Deal episode 'Brexit Special'.


Helicopter123

8,831 posts

155 months

Tuesday 4th December 2018
quotequote all
Some very significant developments today.

1. The legal opinion that A50 can be revoked meaning that the deal we have can be unilaterally retained by the UK should parliament wish. We keep the rebate, no euro or Schengen,
2. The Grieve amendment this evening effectively takes "no deal" off the table.

A second referendum therefore would be either a defeated May deal versus remain, or some other deal cobbled together within the 21 days post the defeat of the May deal versus remain.

No other combination possible based on the current will of parliament.

Personally, if May defeated in parliament I can see her revoking A50.

"back to square one"

Edited by Helicopter123 on Tuesday 4th December 20:59

Kermit power

28,634 posts

212 months

Tuesday 4th December 2018
quotequote all
amusingduck said:
Your proposed 2nd ref question doesn't meet the guidelines IMO.

A referendum question should present the options clearly, simply and neutrally. So it should:
• be easy to understand
• be to the point
• be unambiguous
• avoid encouraging voters to consider one response more favourably than another
• avoid misleading voters

• Is the question written in plain language? That is, language that:
– uses short sentences (around 15–20 words)
– is simple, direct, and concise
– uses familiar words, and avoids jargon or technical terms that would not be easily understood by most people
• Is the question written in neutral language, avoiding words that suggest a judgement or opinion, either explicitly or implicitly?
• Is the information contained in the question factual, describing the question and the options clearly and accurately?
• Does the question avoid assuming anything about voters’ views?
The first referendum failed on those grounds, so it's a bit of a moot point, surely?

B'stard Child

28,324 posts

245 months

Tuesday 4th December 2018
quotequote all
Genuine question on 1st and second choice voting (I know not normal for me)

But if you have to put a 1 and a 2 by the choices is just putting a 1 against one option (and not specifying a second choice at all) a spoiled ballot?