Brexit Referendum - top two choices

[gizlaroc]

frisbee said:

A poll running from 3pm to 5pm on a weekday....

Retired and unemployed bias maybe?

You tell us, you're the one posting?




Remain up to 33% now?
Blimey.

[silentbrown]

Well, I should have copyrighted the question, because YouGov have asked pretty much the exact same thing,,,

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-repo...

Their results: [b]Remain 46%,[b] No Deal 27%, May Deal 27%

Results here, on our unscientific, self-selected, male-dominated forum: No Deal 44%, Remain 34%, Mays Deal 21%,

[saaby93]

silentbrown said:

Well, I should have copyrighted the question, because YouGov have asked pretty much the exact same thing,,,

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-repo...

Their results: [b]Remain 46%,[b] No Deal 27%, May Deal 27%

Trouble is May deal and No deal are both Brexit so that's shifted 54:46 in favour of Brexit

silentbrown said:

Results here, on our unscientific, self-selected, male-dominated forum: No Deal 44%, Remain 34%, Mays Deal 21%,

In PH it's 65:34 in favour of Brexit

[V8LM]

As it stands

May/No - 16
No/May - 25
May/Stay - 6
Stay/May - 22
Stay/No - 12
No/Stay - 19

Commonality between top two is May, but no majority

First choice:

May/No + May/Stay = 22
No/May + No/Stay = 44
Stay/May + Stay/No = 34 - so No but still no majority

Transferable vote 1:

No/May + No/Stay + May/No + May/Stay = 66
Stay/May + Stay/No = 34 - No has it.

Transferable vote 2:

May/No + May/Stay = 22
No/May + Stay/No + No/Stay = 56 - No has it
Stay/May - 22

Transferable votes:

No/May + May/Stay + Stay/No + May/No = 59
Stay/May + May/Stay + Stay/No + May/No = 56
No/Stay + May/Stay + Stay/No + May/No = 53 - No again

Consensus is No deal

ETA:

If you look at the number of votes that didn't vote for May, Stay and Nay, then:

May - 31
Stay - 41
Nay - 28

so not Stay, then

May - 44
Nah - 56 - No (this is the transferable vote: 1 above).

Edited by V8LM on Saturday 8th December 09:36

[JuanCarlosFandango]

So no deal wins.

Would it be jumping the gun to start discussing the third referendum now?

How about Remain vs Stay In?

[silentbrown]

saaby93 said:

In PH it's 65:34 in favour of Brexit

...or, it's PH 55:45% in favour of remaining in the CU (but see below...)

V8LM said:

<snip>
Transferable vote 1:

No/May + No/Stay + May/No + May/Stay = 66

Not sure how you think "transferable votes" work if votes for "May 1st, Stay 2nd" get transferred to "No Deal".

Anyhow, the "rule" for the voting was in the original post. Reinterpreting the votes based on different rules after the vote isn't an option. But "No Deal" wins regardless...

[V8LM]

silentbrown said:

Not sure how you think "transferable votes" work if votes for "May 1st, Stay 2nd" get transferred to "No Deal".

Several ways to transfer votes when people make a choice of their first and second choice of three, in this case:

May/No - 16
No/May - 25
May/Stay - 6
[Stay/May - 22
Stay/No - 12
No/Stay - 19

May/Stay has the lowest votes, so in this mechanism, their first choice goes to the others who have May as their first choice - May/No.

May/No - 22
No/May - 25
Stay/May - 22
Stay/No - 12
No/Stay - 19

Stay/No now has the lowest votes, so their votes go to Stay/May

May/No - 22
No/May - 25
Stay/May - 34
No/Stay - 19

No/Stay's go to No/May

May/No - 22
No/May - 44
Stay/May - 34

May/No's go to No/May

No/May - 66
Stay/May - 34

Not saying it's fair, just one of the many ways the votes could be spun.

[silentbrown]

V8LM said:

May/Stay has the lowest votes, so in this mechanism, their first choice goes to the others who have May as their first choice - May/No.

Is this just something you've made up? STV (which I described) is the typical way of handling this kind of multiple-choice thing. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Single_transferable_...

[saaby93]

ash73 said:

EFTA (Norway) should be one of the options. No deal shouldn't even be on the list, it's not a realistic option.

Theyve said they dont want us

[anonymous-user]

Are you asking a committee?

[The Dangerous Elk]

saaby93 said:

Theyve said they dont want us

LIE, outright lie.

One or two very pro EU Norwegian political squirrels have.

[saaby93]

silentbrown said:

V8LM said:

May/Stay has the lowest votes, so in this mechanism, their first choice goes to the others who have May as their first choice - May/No.

Is this just something you've made up? STV (which I described) is the typical way of handling this kind of multiple-choice thing. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Single_transferable_...

There are other ways of doing it, that avoid excluding votes and having second rounds

[PRTVR]

The Dangerous Elk said:

saaby93 said:

Theyve said they dont want us

LIE, outright lie.

One or two very pro EU Norwegian political squirrels have.

I love the Norway deal, it's a good fit with the UK,
Norway voted 52% not to join the EU, the politicians stitched them up,
The UK voted 51.9% to leave and our politicians will try the same.

[V8LM]

saaby93 said:

silentbrown said:

V8LM said:

May/Stay has the lowest votes, so in this mechanism, their first choice goes to the others who have May as their first choice - May/No.

Is this just something you've made up? STV (which I described) is the typical way of handling this kind of multiple-choice thing. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Single_transferable_...

There are other ways of doing it, that avoid excluding votes and having second rounds

Exactly.

As said, it's one way the votes can be counted. In the OP's 'rules', a voter's first choice is eliminated if it doesn't agree with the rest. Is this fair?

In this mechanism under discussion, an eliminated voter's first choice is given to the others who have the same first choice.

I'm not saying what is fairer, only there are multiple ways to spin the vote. At the end of the day, No deal wins on this vote.

It's interesting to note that what is common between the two opposites, Stay or Nay, is May. This, I suspect, is why we have got to the situation we have, and a majority in the HoC, or public, is not achievable.

[saaby93]

PRTVR said:

The Dangerous Elk said:

saaby93 said:

Theyve said they dont want us

LIE, outright lie.

One or two very pro EU Norwegian political squirrels have.

I love the Norway deal, it's a good fit with the UK,
Norway voted 52% not to join the EU, the politicians stitched them up,
The UK voted 51.9% to leave and our politicians will try the same.

The Norway deal involves free movement
The UK has said it doesnt want that
Norway says fair enough - you cant join
Where have you seen different?

[The Dangerous Elk]

saaby93 said:

The Norway deal involves free movement
The UK has said it doesnt want that
Norway says fair enough - you cant join
Where have you seen different?

Quote from "Norway" please, err, please make it the Government rather than some EU prop.

BTW, Norway is NOT a good deal as it is as the Norwegians call it, Government by Fax.

[saaby93]

The Dangerous Elk said:

saaby93 said:

The Norway deal involves free movement
The UK has said it doesnt want that
Norway says fair enough - you cant join
Where have you seen different?

Quote from "Norway" please, err, please make it the Government rather than some EU prop.

BTW, Norway is NOT a good deal as it is as the Norwegians call it, Government by Fax.

was it this one?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/07/n...

[PRTVR]

saaby93 said:

PRTVR said:

The Dangerous Elk said:

saaby93 said:

Theyve said they dont want us

LIE, outright lie.

One or two very pro EU Norwegian political squirrels have.

I love the Norway deal, it's a good fit with the UK,
Norway voted 52% not to join the EU, the politicians stitched them up,
The UK voted 51.9% to leave and our politicians will try the same.

The Norway deal involves free movement
The UK has said it doesnt want that
Norway says fair enough - you cant join
Where have you seen different?

Amber Rudd is talking about it and she is supposedly backing May, anything is possible.

[saaby93]

PRTVR said:

Amber Rudd is talking about it and she is supposedly backing May, anything is possible.

Doesnt Amber Rudd seem to be on her own mission?
Nothing concrete then

[The Dangerous Elk]

saaby93 said:

was it this one?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/07/n...

You are having a larff chubby !