How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 6)
Discussion
lenny007 said:
As am i - if you want to find racism, it's pretty much under any rock in any place in any town in the world. Just because someone had something positive to say about having a holiday in this country - in the North East - doesn't automatically make "because racist" the default response. That says more about you and your attitudes than the North East or the people who live there.
well said.toppstuff said:
It’s Brexit. We Leave the SM and the ECJ. End FOM. It’s what people wanted. Given the vote was binary, frankly anyone surprised we are in this position hasn’t thought about this enough. This situation was inevitable.
Certainly don't think it was inevitable, most likely outcome possibly with May in charge, May never gave me the impression that she's "a bloody difficult woman", comes across as too much a compromiser to me to drive a hard bargain.Coolbanana said:
What we already knew has been confirmed: the so-called 'hard Brexiters' are now completely defeated.
Whether they played the final card themselves or their bluff was deliberately called by others, they are now finished.
As we have long predicted...WTO is not an option. It never really was.
Not really. May now can't take her deal to the government as it's clear she will not get it through. The rumours of backroom deals to get this vote are quite shocking.Whether they played the final card themselves or their bluff was deliberately called by others, they are now finished.
As we have long predicted...WTO is not an option. It never really was.
So this confidence vote has turned her into a zombie. She can either wait until March 29th and deliver No Deal by default, or step down for someone else with a different plan.
So it looks like the Brexiteers may have won the war, even when they've lost the battle.
The only way out for her now would be to get a deal that is significantly better from the EU. Not just sticking plasters, but actually something that looks like a genuine Brexit. I doubt that's going to happen.
Sheets Tabuer said:
She could just have another ref out of spite, no one can challenge her now.
Right you b
d jrm and blond fkwit you're having another vote 
As said above, Remainer/Eu plan B.Right you b
d jrm and blond fkwit you're having another vote Remember the Voters are the real power in the Uk even if it takes a few years (elections) to get there. We just do not know where that will be.
Both sides have a massive stock of new information (ammo) if there is another Ref:
I would not like to bet my house on that one any more than the first one.
Tuna said:
Not really. May now can't take her deal to the government as it's clear she will not get it through. The rumours of backroom deals to get this vote are quite shocking.
So this confidence vote has turned her into a zombie. She can either wait until March 29th and deliver No Deal by default, or step down for someone else with a different plan.
So it looks like the Brexiteers may have won the war, even when they've lost the battle.
The only way out for her now would be to get a deal that is significantly better from the EU. Not just sticking plasters, but actually something that looks like a genuine Brexit. I doubt that's going to happen.
You’re interpretation of events seems shaky. No one wiill deliver No Deal by default. It will never happen. There is a large parliamentary cross party view that No Deal must not be allowed to happen. Brexit would be deferred before that would be allowed to happen. So this confidence vote has turned her into a zombie. She can either wait until March 29th and deliver No Deal by default, or step down for someone else with a different plan.
So it looks like the Brexiteers may have won the war, even when they've lost the battle.
The only way out for her now would be to get a deal that is significantly better from the EU. Not just sticking plasters, but actually something that looks like a genuine Brexit. I doubt that's going to happen.
Sheets Tabuer said:
I really scratch my head at this lot, Richard drax MP on sky saying she has a 3rd or the party against her so she should resign, erm that's still 2/3rd for her.
So 52 to 48 in the Indy ref is set in stone but a 2/3rd win means she should consider her position.
I am sure you are well aware that this is entirely different than the referendum I am sure you know how Parliament also works and she is fooked. She cannot get her deal through just because she won tonight out of 650 MP's she can now count on 200 of them to support her.So 52 to 48 in the Indy ref is set in stone but a 2/3rd win means she should consider her position.
Coolbanana said:
What we already knew has been confirmed: the so-called 'hard Brexiters' are now completely defeated.
Whether they played the final card themselves or their bluff was deliberately called by others, they are now finished.
As we have long predicted...WTO is not an option. It never really was.
WTO is the default option though if her/EU deal is voted down.Whether they played the final card themselves or their bluff was deliberately called by others, they are now finished.
As we have long predicted...WTO is not an option. It never really was.
Plus if she u-turns again and says there will actually be another referendum, having extended art 50 for a year or so to do it, another thing she said she won’t do, then what if the public votes for WTO rather than her deal? As these should be the only 2 options, as staying in has already been rejected by the public of course.
Problem is that 75% of MP’s are remain, which is why we are where we are to be honest. Maybe that’s why they will actually need to be told twice by the public to leave the EU.
Bit like having to tell a small child to do something twice before they do it.
FiF said:
don'tbesilly said:
FiF said:
Easy win, but promised to quit before next GE.
I'm not sure many will think 117 votes of no confidence is a resounding vote of confidence.That's 117 votes against May's deal when it does get back to the House.
The numbers for the deal going through only stack up if you ask Dianne Abbott to do the arithmetic.
Unless something is done around the backstop area then that deal is likely to be voted down unless something staggering occurs.
This leadership contest, regardless what you think of May, personally despise her just from her time as HomeSec, was the wrong thing at absolutely THE worst moment without question.
I guess the next challenge will come from Labour once the Deal eventually gets voted down in the HoC, or if it gets through the DUP say goodbye to the Tories.
Corbyn must be over the moon with the Tories, the gift horse which keeps giving.
ITP said:
WTO is the default option though if her/EU deal is voted down.
Plus if she u-turns again and says there will actually be another referendum, having extended art 50 for a year or so to do it, another thing she said she won’t do, then what if the public votes for WTO rather than her deal? As these should be the only 2 options, as staying in has already been rejected by the public of course.
Problem is that 75% of MP’s are remain, which is why we are where we are to be honest. Maybe that’s why they will actually need to be told twice by the public to leave the EU.
Bit like having to tell a small child to do something twice before they do it.
that's why another referendum is pointless even with another win for leave they will not accept the result.Plus if she u-turns again and says there will actually be another referendum, having extended art 50 for a year or so to do it, another thing she said she won’t do, then what if the public votes for WTO rather than her deal? As these should be the only 2 options, as staying in has already been rejected by the public of course.
Problem is that 75% of MP’s are remain, which is why we are where we are to be honest. Maybe that’s why they will actually need to be told twice by the public to leave the EU.
Bit like having to tell a small child to do something twice before they do it.
I heard Cable say if another referendum gave a 48/52 to remain we should accept it and move on this is what we are up against they asked the people the question and they do not like the answer
braddo said:
Parliament will prevent a no deal, crash-out Brexit. It ain't gonna happen. A majority of MPs know it would be an utter dereliction of duty to the national interest to allow a crash-out Brexit to occur.
May's deal will be an easy sell if the only other option is "no deal", despite the current whining about "needing more concessions" from the EU before it can be voted through (nobody seems to care what those concessions would be, as long as it looks like a "win" over the EU).
johnxjsc1985 said:
that's why another referendum is pointless even with another win for leave they will not accept the result.
I heard Cable say if another referendum gave a 48/52 to remain we should accept it and move on this is what we are up against they asked the people the question and they do not like the answer
They asked the question to the people, are trying to implement the result but those people can't agree what they want to happen next.I heard Cable say if another referendum gave a 48/52 to remain we should accept it and move on this is what we are up against they asked the people the question and they do not like the answer
don'tbesilly said:
FiF said:
don'tbesilly said:
FiF said:
Easy win, but promised to quit before next GE.
I'm not sure many will think 117 votes of no confidence is a resounding vote of confidence.That's 117 votes against May's deal when it does get back to the House.
The numbers for the deal going through only stack up if you ask Dianne Abbott to do the arithmetic.
Unless something is done around the backstop area then that deal is likely to be voted down unless something staggering occurs.
This leadership contest, regardless what you think of May, personally despise her just from her time as HomeSec, was the wrong thing at absolutely THE worst moment without question.
I guess the next challenge will come from Labour once the Deal eventually gets voted down in the HoC, or if it gets through the DUP say goodbye to the Tories.
Corbyn must be over the moon with the Tories, the gift horse which keeps giving.
https://www.explaintrade.com/blogs/2018/12/8/bucca...
Interesting article here, though given no deal is now likely off the cards.
Interesting article here, though given no deal is now likely off the cards.
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