How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 6)

[johnxjsc1985]

So when we go to no deal the EU will have to protect their Border between the Republic and N.I lets see how their red line no hard border will work

[p1stonhead]

johnxjsc1985 said:

So when we go to no deal the EU will have to protect their Border between the Republic and N.I lets see how their red line no hard border will work

Exactly why no deal wont happen and we will concede big time on something before April.

[anonymous-user]

don'tbesilly said:

You're confused Ghibli.

It's not just people who voted Leave who don't want May's deal, watching any debate on what May is proposing in the HoC will show that many Tory MP's don't want her deal and that excludes MP's who are described as rebels/extremists etc.

You mentioned rioting not me, is that what you think people should do?
Is that because you would do it?

It’s you that is confused. You believe what she says when you want to and call her a liar when she says something you don’t want to believe. The vote hasn’t taken place yet, let’s wait and see what the result is instead of guessing.

[The Dangerous Elk]

Coolbanana said:

Yes, Murph, please clarify


I cannot see Britons en masse taking to the streets in riotous fashion over Brexit. Even those who decide to march peacefully will struggle to match the Remainer numbers.

Why? Simply because no Remainers will have any issue with it - so that's 48%. Abstainers won't, so that's the majority of the population and most Leavers won't, simply because most just won't be all that fussed enough to be activists when their lives are not going to be materially negatively affected enough to warrant it.

That leaves only a relatively small number of actual Brexit Activists - and even among those, many are just hot air and angry typists - and those can be managed no probs.

Not as big a deal as some anarchist Brexiters would like to believe.

There will be big riots, but they will come on the days ahead when future votes are made, the pen will do this work by both its use and it being discarded as pointless. MP's have managed to turn Politicians/Parliament into a Ratner's.

When a Parliament can disregard the expressed and asked for wish of the British voters then remember (whatever side you are on) they will DO IT TO YOUR Vote one day.

[don'tbesilly]

PositronicRay said:

PurpleMoonlight said:

PositronicRay said:

The trouble is it's in the hands of the HOC

They won't vote for TM deal
Doubt they'd vote 2nd referendum
They won't vote for WTO

Not sure of the protocols could they have a WTO v TM deal vote? I doubt many would turn up, as bad scalded as burnt.

They don't need to vote for WTO though.

They need to vote for SOMETHING else to avoid WTO.

How does voting for "SOMTHING else" help. Sounds a bit Father Ted to me.

The 'meaningful' vote was on the deal May negotiated with the EU.

The deal was due to be voted on last Tuesday 11th, but May denied the House the vote because she knew it would be heavily defeated.
May volunteered to go back to Brussels to try and negotiate the deal and make it more acceptable to those who wouldn't vote for it.

May has managed to make the deal worse than the deal she had on the Monday which should of been voted for on the Tuesday, and is bringing back from Brussels what was a bad deal that is now even worse, and expecting people to vote it through the HoC.

The deal she now has is the option, it is the 'meaningful' vote, the other current option is no deal.

May.................."No deal is better than a bad deal".

Is May's now worse deal than the bad deal she had on Monday 10th December now a good deal?

[kayc]

Anyone know what a non-meaningful vote is?..a referendum vote?

[LDN]

The Dangerous Elk said:

Coolbanana said:

Yes, Murph, please clarify


I cannot see Britons en masse taking to the streets in riotous fashion over Brexit. Even those who decide to march peacefully will struggle to match the Remainer numbers.

Why? Simply because no Remainers will have any issue with it - so that's 48%. Abstainers won't, so that's the majority of the population and most Leavers won't, simply because most just won't be all that fussed enough to be activists when their lives are not going to be materially negatively affected enough to warrant it.

That leaves only a relatively small number of actual Brexit Activists - and even among those, many are just hot air and angry typists - and those can be managed no probs.

Not as big a deal as some anarchist Brexiters would like to believe.

There will be big riots, but they will come on the days ahead when future votes are made, the pen will do this work by both its use and it being discarded as pointless. MP's have managed to turn Politicians/Parliament into a Ratner's.

When a Parliament can disregard the expressed and asked for wish of the British voters then remember (whatever side you are on) they will DO IT TO YOUR Vote one day.

They won't be disregarding anything, because they'll hand the responsibility back to the voters... like a hot potato. It's a case of 'we, the government; royally fked up the negotiations. We were never up to the task but we gave it a go anyway. We failed. We have a crap deal on the table; you want this deal? or now; knowing just how bad the deal is, do you want to forget the whole thing ever happened? - or indeed; do you want to just leave; lock stock and barrel?'

[johnxjsc1985]

p1stonhead said:

Exactly why no deal wont happen and we will concede big time on something before April.

Its the EU who will have the problem not the UK and the Republic will lose out massively if a hard border is put in place by the EU which they will do if no deal is the outcome. The EU have made it clear nothing, nobody or State comes before the EU's red lines.

[Hayek]

PositronicRay said:

Polite M135 driver said:

No deal would be a really stupid thing to do. For this reason nobody from the ‘no’ campaign even advanced the idea during the run up to the referendum. To enact it would be irresponsible.

The trouble is it's in the hands of the HOC

They won't vote for TM deal
Doubt they'd vote 2nd referendum
They won't vote for WTO

Not sure of the protocols could they have a WTO v TM deal vote? I doubt many would turn up, as bad scalded as burnt.

They've already voted for WTO, because as it stands we're leaving on March the 29th whether there's some other arrangement made or not.

[Piha]

Britain's politics and politicians are an utter embarrassment at the moment but it is deliciously entertaining to watch the tories & Brexit in such tormented disarray.

Do we think that if the Leave campaign had produced a clear and coherent Brexit strategy during the referendum all of this mess could have been avoided?

On a separate note, did anyone see the wonderful Caroline Lucas put David Davis firmly back in his "fantasy" box on Question Time last night?

[paulrockliffe]

Will read the Ivan Rogers thing properly later, I presume it's broadly what he was saying last time he made a speech. I had a quick skim and thought it interesting that he mentioned FCA being a load of nonsense that van't fly vs the current situation that the Civil Service are recruiting people to implement FCA.

[SpeckledJim]

PositronicRay said:

PurpleMoonlight said:

PositronicRay said:

How does voting for "SOMTHING else" help. Sounds a bit Father Ted to me.

Because WTO is the default of where we now, if they do nothing it will happen. They need to do something else to stop that.

Don't you understand that?

What I don't understand is the "something else" surely it's an either/or?

Parliament has already legislated that No Deal happens in March 2019. That's the only solid plan we have.

It doesn't have to happen, but for it to not happen, parliament has to actively make SOMETHING else happen. There are a variety of somethings still available, but time is reducing their number.

To say there's no appetite in Parliament for No Deal might be true in one sense, but it's also true that parliament voted in a plan, just six months ago, to make No Deal happen, so it's a muddled situation

[don'tbesilly]

Ghibli said:

don'tbesilly said:

You're confused Ghibli.

It's not just people who voted Leave who don't want May's deal, watching any debate on what May is proposing in the HoC will show that many Tory MP's don't want her deal and that excludes MP's who are described as rebels/extremists etc.

You mentioned rioting not me, is that what you think people should do?
Is that because you would do it?

It’s you that is confused. You believe what she says when you want to and call her a liar when she says something you don’t want to believe. The vote hasn’t taken place yet, let’s wait and see what the result is instead of guessing.

It's just me suggesting May is being untruthful is it?

May wouldn't allow her deal to go ahead on Tuesday, May said in the HoC it would be defeated, her words.

The deal May has now worked hard to make more acceptable to those who would have voted against it on the Tuesday is now worse than the one she had on Monday according to sources who know far more than you or I.

It is a guess yes, but based on May's own words on Monday in the HoC it is a fairly sound guess with some form of credibility.

But you can carry on.

[p1stonhead]

johnxjsc1985 said:

p1stonhead said:

Exactly why no deal wont happen and we will concede big time on something before April.

Its the EU who will have the problem not the UK and the Republic will lose out massively if a hard border is put in place by the EU which they will do if no deal is the outcome. The EU have made it clear nothing, nobody or State comes before the EU's red lines.

No border will go up that is certain. And we therefore have to solve what else can be done. If nothing can be done (it can’t or it would have been agreed), we will make a concession accordingly I.e the backstop.

That is the WHOLE reason we are where we are now with TM’s deal.

[WelshChris]

May be something awry with my thinking, but...

I keep reading that the EU definitely don't want the 'no deal' scenario, so why is it that May has to go cap in hand to Brussells begging for concessions and changes to the bad deal she already has on the table? - Why can't we simply turn the tables and tell the EU that we're leaving with no deal if they don't come to the party? - They surely will even if it's at the eleventh hour.

With all the machinations and to-ing and fro-ing that's taking place at the moment, this is the one point I'm not clear on. (Actually there are probably others but my head has gone completely where this is concerned - I think it's called 'brexit fatigue' )

[anonymous-user]

Piha said:

Britain's politics and politicians are an utter embarrassment at the moment but it is deliciously entertaining to watch the tories & Brexit in such tormented disarray.

Do we think that if the Leave campaign had produced a clear and coherent Brexit strategy during the referendum all of this mess could have been avoided?

On a separate note, did anyone see the wonderful Caroline Lucas put David Davis firmly back in his "fantasy" box on Question Time last night?

At there two Caroline Lucases then? I’ve never seen one who could even laughingly described as ‘wonderful’.

[p1stonhead]

WelshChris said:

May be something awry with my thinking, but...

I keep reading that the EU definitely don't want the 'no deal' scenario, so why is it that May has to go cap in hand to Brussells begging for concessions and changes to the bad deal she already has on the table? - Why can't we simply turn the tables and tell the EU that we're leaving with no deal if they don't come to the party? - They surely will even if it's at the eleventh hour.

With all the machinations and to-ing and fro-ing that's taking place at the moment, this is the one point I'm not clear on. (Actually there are probably others but my head has gone completely where this is concerned - I think it's called 'brexit fatigue' )

Because we don’t want to appear brain dead.

[otis criblecoblis]

Piha said:

Britain's politics and politicians are an utter embarrassment at the moment but it is deliciously entertaining to watch the tories & Brexit in such tormented disarray.

Do we think that if the Leave campaign had produced a clear and coherent Brexit strategy during the referendum all of this mess could have been avoided?

On a separate note, did anyone see the wonderful Caroline Lucas put David Davis firmly back in his "fantasy" box on Question Time last night?

The cross party campaign group that was Leave could have wrote a million words on what they wanted, but a bit pointless when it was down to the government to interpret, just as they have done. Leave and Remain both campaigned on the same basic parts, and that was to fully leave, you leave the SM and CU.

Caroline Lucas is another Remain ultra who voted to hold the referendum, that she then immediately campaigned on saying how it would destroy the country. So she was either happy to take that risk, or may have been bullstting with the doom and gloom stuff. You pick which.

Like so many other Remain backing MPs, they overwhelmingly voted to hold a referendum that they sought to overturn the very second the result was announced. I guess they do at least reflect some of the more loon Remain voices on PH who's tantrums started immediately on the result.
The story of the referendum is one of total arrogance from Remain MPs who assumed a Remain vote was a given.

[JuanCarlosFandango]

The Dangerous Elk said:

There will be big riots, but they will come on the days ahead when future votes are made, the pen will do this work by both its use and it being discarded as pointless. MP's have managed to turn Politicians/Parliament into a Ratner's.

When a Parliament can disregard the expressed and asked for wish of the British voters then remember (whatever side you are on) they will DO IT TO YOUR Vote one day.

Exactly this. It makes a mockery of the entire system.

I for one would be protesting, probably near a polling station and would never consider the result as having any more validity than the resounding victory of President Saparmurat Niyazov , the self styled "Turkmenbashi" of Turkmenistan, who was made President for Life in 1999 by a parliament so enthusiastic that even the leader of the opposition endorsed him.

[WelshChris]

p1stonhead said:

Because we don’t want to appear brain dead.

Brain dead? - My post wasn't casting judgement on the rights or wrongs of the decision to leave. I was simply wondering why we can't take a more aggressive stance when it comes to negotiations. Being a tougher negiator doesn't make you brain dead.