How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 6)

How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 6)

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Discussion

ash73

15,281 posts

157 months

Wednesday 5th December
quotequote all
Coolbanana said:
That has been what I have long thought would be the case; Team Leave would reach the point when their Cause was defeated in terms of a No Deal, a Full Brexit, and rally around the only Brexit option open to them that could have some wriggle room for a Brexit that wasn't as soft as the Norway option.

TM's Deal is their best shot unless they, like some Remainers, want to go down the gambling route with a 2nd Referendum for the all or nothing prize.

Team Leave was finally defeated some weeks ago and BJ was conspicuously the only Jolly Brexiteer still fighting hard yesterday but his efforts merely highlighted that he is done for - no support came from his fellow Leavers, JRM, DD et al relatively silent. BJ was heckled and made to look a fool. Do they have anything left in the tank for the next 5 days? Anything at all? Or has their Fall finally ended with a hard thud.

Parliament have taken back control, as I suspected they ultimately would and despite some on here who still have an amazing Faith that the current default No Deal option could still be invoked, the path to halting Article 50 and ensuring all legislation required to cancel a No Deal is well and truly in motion now.

Farage, for all his vileness, is not a stupid man - he is a shrewd player of the game. It is very telling that he chose yesterday to announce his abandonment of UKIP so that he can strike out and create a new Party - he has conceded that Brexit is done for and sees an opportunity to galvanise Leavers who are still committed to the Cause in a new venture, a re-organising and re-structuring; start over, think again.

Brexit is all but a corpse that will be morbidly displayed and kicked about in the coming weeks.

Leavers only Hope is to support the dreaded TM Deal or accept a Norway solution. If they do not join forces in support of either of those, then either Parliament will engineer a Remain Victory sans the need for a 2nd Referendum, or the country will go back to the Ballot and the gamble will be invoked once more.
Agree with a lot of that, but I think Farage is wasting his time we will NOT get this opportunity again. People need to look at where the EU is heading and what our net contribution will likely be in 10, 20, 30 years; this is our ONLY chance to escape.

I think a lot of people have misunderstood May's deal. The divorce bill is high but the only real issue is agreeing a virtual border in Ireland, which is promised in the political declaration; and until then we get free access to the single market.

Norway plan B has its advantages but also requires a withdrawal agreement, probably with the same divorce bill and transition period, and it seems they will circumvent the border issue by remaining in the customs union (botched Norway+) which means no trade deals.

Either option is workable, but people need to stop thinking it's May's withdrawal agreement versus Norway, it's WA + PD versus WA + Norway.

Hard brexiteers must now rally behind May, the longer they hold out the softer Brexit will get until it's finally dead in the water; no deal is not going to happen.

The basic problem is the majority of MPs are remainers and acting in contempt of the public vote. It will be interesting to see how the public reacts at the polls, but I suspect most people are beyond caring.

Polite M135 driver

1,196 posts

20 months

Wednesday 5th December
quotequote all
If my children were smoking crack, I'd do my best to help them out and stop them.

Just consider that the MPs are doing what's best for the country (their job), even if you don't want them to because of your weirdo self destructive streak.

Chalk brexit up alongside the death penalty, something that the public support that sensible-thinking people can see is hugely problematic.

dai1983

1,608 posts

85 months

Wednesday 5th December
quotequote all
kayc said:
I actually found it hard watching European leaders on Remembrance day trying to show respect to the millions that fell for freedom twice ..they now try and fk the country that gave them that ..respect should be more than laying a few poppies.
Never realised that Britain single handedly won WW1 and WW2. Cheers for the history lesson.

pgh

722 posts

128 months

Wednesday 5th December
quotequote all
Polite M135 driver said:
If my children were smoking crack, I'd do my best to help them out and stop them.

Just consider that the MPs are doing what's best for the country (their job), even if you don't want them to because of your weirdo self destructive streak.

Chalk brexit up alongside the death penalty, something that the public support that sensible-thinking people can see is hugely problematic.
How about stop assuming you know what other people think? You'll find no support from the death penalty from me. Plenty of support for Brexit though.

I think staying in the EU is the direct equivalent of your drug taking children analogy.

DeejRC

747 posts

18 months

Wednesday 5th December
quotequote all
I will, as always, be quite honest and say i voted Leave as it was to my immediate benefit at the time - instant pay rise.

I am utterly of the school of thought that the British version of democracy is most resilient, evolved and strongest because it is based on the collective of millions of individual selfish votes. That way reveals as best as possible the best path for the country.

As such, now I have to say I am not economically fussed either way if we stay or remain. Neither is actually more beneficial for me. I’m now back in the uk, I earn here currently but a large amount of my work is European based. Certain announcements by T May recently with respect to European work, actually massively benefit me. I can also quite easily take my next contract in Europe in the new year.

So the economic aspect is for me off the agenda.

Politically wise - and with my old historian and political analysis hat on - I have no problem with Parliament thoroughly discussing Brexit and proposals. All such proposals need to be absolutely debated and investigated to death. What cannot happen though is that Parliament oppose a Referendum result. That is a disastrous outcome. The civic ructions we see now are but a minor foretaste that will happen in the medium term under such a thing.

Far far better all round is that the politicians go back to the country. A second Refendum is viable in this case or a General Election. There are different ways such a thing can go, but it must be some form of formal question to the country.

And yes I would absolutely risk Corbyn in order that Democracy is maintained. We are a piss poor country and electorate if we cannot accept that. And I refuse to believe we are that poor a country.
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kayc

3,695 posts

157 months

Wednesday 5th December
quotequote all
dai1983 said:
Never realised that Britain single handedly won WW1 and WW2. Cheers for the history lesson.
I don't recall saying that but history would suggest we had a small part to playrolleyes..and unfortunately especially for those that threw their lives away looks like it will be proved to be a wasted effort


Edited by kayc on Wednesday 5th December 11:01

The Dangerous Elk

4,140 posts

13 months

Wednesday 5th December
quotequote all
pgh said:
How about stop assuming you know what other people think? You'll find no support from the death penalty from me. Plenty of support for Brexit though.

I think staying in the EU is the direct equivalent of your drug taking children analogy.
He was born with that particular habit, it is hard for him to understand being off his "drug" so have sympathy.

Polite M135 driver

1,196 posts

20 months

Wednesday 5th December
quotequote all
pgh said:
How about stop assuming you know what other people think? You'll find no support from the death penalty from me. Plenty of support for Brexit though.

I think staying in the EU is the direct equivalent of your drug taking children analogy.
nothing in what I wrote indicates any assumption about what any individual thinks, only facts about what the general public think en masse.

City_boy

93 posts

1 month

Wednesday 5th December
quotequote all
Polite M135 driver said:
nothing in what I wrote indicates any assumption about what any individual thinks, only facts about what the general public think en masse.
‘En masse’ they wanted to leave the EU.

toppstuff

12,273 posts

183 months

Wednesday 5th December
quotequote all
kayc said:
dai1983 said:
Never realised that Britain single handedly won WW1 and WW2. Cheers for the history lesson.
I don't recall saying that but history would suggest we had a small part to playrolleyes
But your suggestion that EU leaders are insincere about their respect for those lost is an imbecilic thing to say.

kayc

3,695 posts

157 months

Wednesday 5th December
quotequote all
toppstuff said:
But your suggestion that EU leaders are insincere about their respect for those lost is an imbecilic thing to say.
In your opinion of course..they know we want to leave as we voted for that ..if they were true allies/friends as you imply they would make that task easy..instead they try to punish us for the audacity of once again trying to be a free nation.

MikeyC

417 posts

163 months

Wednesday 5th December
quotequote all
This has probably already been pointed out, but I missed it before (mentioned on 5 Live) : HMG Referendum leaflet

HMG Referendum leaflet says said:
This is your decision. The Government will implement what you decide.
or was this just another fib ...

Polite M135 driver

1,196 posts

20 months

Wednesday 5th December
quotequote all
City_boy said:
‘En masse’ they wanted to leave the EU.
obviously, that's what we're talking about. Unfortunately 'en masse' the electorate is making the wrong choice for the country and most probably themselves as individuals too. Remember, the areas that receive highest levels of EU funding were also those that voted most strongly to leave.

City_boy

93 posts

1 month

Wednesday 5th December
quotequote all
saaby93 said:
The march wasnt pro or anti Brexit.
it was for a second vote
rofl

saaby93

24,373 posts

114 months

Wednesday 5th December
quotequote all
MikeyC said:
This has probably already been pointed out, but I missed it before (mentioned on 5 Live) : HMG Referendum leaflet

HMG Referendum leaflet says said:
This is your decision. The Government will implement what you decide.
or was this just another fib ...
That was a Government leaflet.
The current discussions are in Parliament

City_boy

93 posts

1 month

Wednesday 5th December
quotequote all
Polite M135 driver said:
obviously, that's what we're talking about. Unfortunately 'en masse' the electorate is making the wrong choice for the country and most probably themselves as individuals too. Remember, the areas that receive highest levels of EU funding were also those that voted most strongly to leave.
1. You are entitled to your opinion. Plenty of people would disagree

2. No, they don’t receive any funding from the EU, it comes from the UK. Presenting it as fact is simply wrong.




Edited by City_boy on Wednesday 5th December 11:09

Puggit

40,471 posts

184 months

Wednesday 5th December
quotequote all
kayc said:
n your opinion of course..they know we want to leave as we voted for that ..if they were true allies/friends as you imply they would make that task easy..instead they try to punish us for the audacity of once again trying to be a free nation.
And remember, that freedom was given away without the consent of the nation.

Four Litre

1,113 posts

128 months

Wednesday 5th December
quotequote all
Puggit said:
My prediction? Both Labour and Conservative votes will fall apart spectacularly if Brexit is overturned by parliament. New parties will be here soon.

Mrs Puggit pretends that the electorate voted for more Europe in each general election because they voted for the major parties - when there was no real choice. There will be new parties to replace the old - because the old will not be trusted.

Brexit may be averted in the short term. The UK political landscape would never be the same afterwards.
Long term that's probably a good thing, maybe part of natural evolution as currently nothing actually changes year in year out. Only definite is that we pay more tax and product prices / bills go up, not in line with wage packets. Has to come to and one day as the math no longer works infinitely.

The current bunch are a national embarrassment who's behaviour wouldn't be tolerated very long in the private sector. We've ended up with a circus where the only performers are clowns. Who could say hand on heart they are happy to vote either labour or con?

Polite M135 driver

1,196 posts

20 months

Wednesday 5th December
quotequote all
City_boy said:
Polite M135 driver said:
obviously, that's what we're talking about. Unfortunately 'en masse' the electorate is making the wrong choice for the country and most probably themselves as individuals too. Remember, the areas that receive highest levels of EU funding were also those that voted most strongly to leave.
1. You are entitled to your opinion. Plenty of people would disagree

2. No, they don’t receive any funding from the EU, it comes from the UK.
I see, in the same way that staff of sainsbury's get paid by the customers they serve.

toppstuff

12,273 posts

183 months

Wednesday 5th December
quotequote all
kayc said:
toppstuff said:
But your suggestion that EU leaders are insincere about their respect for those lost is an imbecilic thing to say.
In your opinion of course..they know we want to leave as we voted for that ..if they were true allies/friends as you imply they would make that task easy..instead they try to punish us for the audacity of once again trying to be a free nation.
There are not enough roll eyes emojis in the world sometimes. Relating Brexit to the commemoration of war dead is moronic. Shame on you.

You also fundamentally ignores the reason why the EU was created in the first place and why they are sad we want to leave.