How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 6)

[philv]

wc98 said:

philv said:

If article 50 were to be extended a further 2 years, that would be 5 years since the referendum.

Isn’t that long enough to think about checking what people still want?

Exactly how many years have to go by?
Should we wait till every voter in tne last referendum has died perhaps.

I think too much time has passed and too much has happened for the result of the last referendum to still be sound.

First time out few people had a clue about tne consequences of what they were voting for/against.
They do now.
They know more of the consequences and more about the eu.

So a srcond referendum would be more sound.

If anyone dissagrees, please tell me how many years must pass before we need to have abother referendum to be sure? Where abouts between 5 years and eternity?

do they ? news to me. much water to pass under the bridge before we know exactly what form of leave we will get.

Reinforcs the point.
The first referendum is unsound.

[dazwalsh]

philv said:

If article 50 were to be extended a further 2 years, that would be 5 years since the referendum.

Isn’t that long enough to think about checking what people still want?

Exactly how many years have to go by?
Should we wait till every voter in tne last referendum has died perhaps.

I think too much time has passed and too much has happened for the result of the last referendum to still be sound.

First time out few people had a clue about tne consequences of what they were voting for/against.
They do now.
They know more of the consequences and more about the eu.

So a srcond referendum would be more sound.

If anyone dissagrees, please tell me how many years must pass before we need to have abother referendum to be sure? Where abouts between 5 years and eternity?

No one has the foggiest about the consequences just yet, and give it a few years and the EU will implode anyways after trying to merge 27 different cultures, economies, governments, languages and people and failing quite badly at it. It all started as a trading block, now we are heading for EU army and i think you will be glad we jumped before the ship was smashed to smithereens on jagged rocks.

Of course there is part of me that thinks that democracy will be shat on and we somehow find ourselves reversing brexit, i sincerely hope not.

[philv]

dazwalsh said:

philv said:

If article 50 were to be extended a further 2 years, that would be 5 years since the referendum.

Isn’t that long enough to think about checking what people still want?

Exactly how many years have to go by?
Should we wait till every voter in tne last referendum has died perhaps.

I think too much time has passed and too much has happened for the result of the last referendum to still be sound.

First time out few people had a clue about tne consequences of what they were voting for/against.
They do now.
They know more of the consequences and more about the eu.

So a srcond referendum would be more sound.

If anyone dissagrees, please tell me how many years must pass before we need to have abother referendum to be sure? Where abouts between 5 years and eternity?

No one has the foggiest about the consequences just yet, and give it a few years and the EU will implode anyways after trying to merge 27 different cultures, economies, governments, languages and people and failing quite badly at it. It all started as a trading block, now we are heading for EU army and i think you will be glad we jumped before the ship was smashed to smithereens on jagged rocks.

Of course there is part of me that thinks that democracy will be shat on and we somehow find ourselves reversing brexit, i sincerely hope not.

The main question/point was.....

How long has to go by before tne referendum result is no longer sound?

I beleive approximately in the 3 years from referendum to brexit next year -

2 million new elligable viters
2 million dead

33 million voted in brexit

I am not suggesting all those that died voted, or that all new voters will vote of course.

Edited by philv on Friday 7th December 01:13

[PurpleMoonlight]

So it looks like Parliament doesn't want May's deal and doesn't want no deal, they want a different deal but almost every MP as a different idea of what that should be.

Meanwhile the EU have said you can have this deal or an extension to A50.

Are we sure Julia Davis didn't write the script?

[PurpleMoonlight]

Having watched the news, I'll add they don't want a general election either.

This taking back control is sooooooo impressive.

Bunch of muppets the lot of them.

[anonymous-user]

dazwalsh said:

No one has the foggiest about the consequences just yet, and give it a few years and the EU will implode anyways after trying to merge 27 different cultures, economies, governments, languages and people and failing quite badly at it. It all started as a trading block, now we are heading for EU army and i think you will be glad we jumped before the ship was smashed to smithereens on jagged rocks.

Of course there is part of me that thinks that democracy will be shat on and we somehow find ourselves reversing brexit, i sincerely hope not.

Funny that Farage & his cronies have been predicting/wishing for the implosion of the EU for years. It didn’t happen then & wont in the years to come.

[Coolbanana]

Jimboka said:

Funny that Farage & his cronies have been predicting/wishing for the implosion of the EU for years. It didn’t happen then & wont in the years to come.

Indeed, the Haters love to spew their negativity and criticize the EU at every turn with spittle leaking from their lips, but the fact is, the Project is doing just fine and has been for decades.

The same type of criticism could be levelled at the UK if we must only focus upon aspects that don't work as well as we would like, yet it hasn't fallen. Sure, the UK gets a change of Leadership to reinvigorate new ideas, make improvements every so often but so does the EU.

It is a huge collaboration that largely works very well and those who hate it can lump it, because they, like Brexit, will continuously be shown to be wrong over time and it will still be going nicely long after they have become plant fertilizer.

[mx5nut]

dazwalsh said:

give it a few years and the EU will implode anyways

You lot have been saying that for 40 years. Wishing hasn't made it come true yet

[kayc]

Jimboka said:

Funny that Farage & his cronies have been predicting/wishing for the implosion of the EU for years. It didn’t happen then & wont in the years to come.

Are you sure?Its moving nicely that way at the moment..the leader of the most pro European integration country has a 20% approval rating and has shut half his Capital city this weekend coming...Italy just been told to get back in its box with its budget but for how long?Merkel under pressure massively ..and the Greeks battling on and no-one gives a st about them..such European harmony and something to be proud to be a member of..

[mx5nut]

PurpleMoonlight said:

So it looks like Parliament doesn't want May's deal and doesn't want no deal, they want a different deal but almost every MP as a different idea of what that should be.

Much like every leave voter did when they cast their vote. It was never going to be possible to implement anything that made a majority happy. The Brexit project is falling apart.

[amusingduck]

philv said:

The main question/point was.....

How long has to go by before tne referendum result is no longer sound?

I beleive approximately in the 3 years from referendum to brexit next year -

2 million new elligable viters
2 million dead

33 million voted in brexit

I am not suggesting all those that died voted, or that all new voters will vote of course.

Edited by philv on Friday 7th December 01:13

33 million, + 2million new, -2million dead

Total change = ~6%


6% is your threshold for a referendum being "no longer sound"?

Then you must surely be advocating that we re-visit the EU debate every few years, forever?

[TTmonkey]

philv said:

The main question/point was.....

How long has to go by before tne referendum result is no longer sound?

I beleive approximately in the 3 years from referendum to brexit next year -

2 million new elligable viters
2 million dead

33 million voted in brexit

I am not suggesting all those that died voted, or that all new voters will vote of course.

Edited by philv on Friday 7th December 01:13

Actually you are missing a major factor on any urea remain voting population. The millions of immigrants being granted citizenship since the Brexit vote. I’m going to guess that the majority of them wouldn’t vote to remain in any future vote.

[toppstuff]

kayc said:

re you sure?Its moving nicely that way at the moment..the leader of the most pro European integration country has a 20% approval rating and has shut half his city this weekend coming...Italy just been told to get back in its box with its budget but for how long?Merkel under pressure massively ..and the Greeks battling on and no-one gives a st about them..such European harmony and something to be proud to be a member of..

French issues are not about the EU. Ireland is doing very well indeed and Portugal is recovering nicely.
You can find things to support your belief system on either side.

[amusingduck]

Coolbanana said:

Indeed, the Haters love to spew their negativity and criticize the EU at every turn with spittle leaking from their lips, but the fact is, the Project is doing just fine and has been for decades.

A Bloomberg analysis of decades of election results across 22 European countries reveals that support for populist radical-right parties is higher than it’s been at any time over the past 30 years.

I guess that's intentional then

[kayc]

toppstuff said:

French issues are not about the EU. Ireland is doing very well indeed and Portugal is recovering nicely.
You can find things to support your belief system on either side.

mm...not sure Ireland/Portugal quite have the influence France does tbh..

[toppstuff]

amusingduck said:

Coolbanana said:

Indeed, the Haters love to spew their negativity and criticize the EU at every turn with spittle leaking from their lips, but the fact is, the Project is doing just fine and has been for decades.

A Bloomberg analysis of decades of election results across 22 European countries reveals that support for populist radical-right parties is higher than it’s been at any time over the past 30 years.

I guess that's intentional then

The rise in populist parties is real. For sure.

But it isn’t larger than 20% in any country and much lower than this in most. In the Netherlands Gert Wilders peaked at about 14% I believe.

So they are making a lot of noise. The proportional representation EU countries use means they only exist in coalition. I’m not downplaying it - but the EU is absolutely not going to fall over on a populist wave even though on the fringes there are unhappy people getting stroppy.

The majority of people in the EU are quite strongly pro EU.

[amusingduck]

toppstuff said:

amusingduck said:

Coolbanana said:

Indeed, the Haters love to spew their negativity and criticize the EU at every turn with spittle leaking from their lips, but the fact is, the Project is doing just fine and has been for decades.

A Bloomberg analysis of decades of election results across 22 European countries reveals that support for populist radical-right parties is higher than it’s been at any time over the past 30 years.

I guess that's intentional then

The rise in populist parties is real. For sure.

But it isn’t larger than 20% in any country and much lower than this in most. In the Netherlands Gert Wilders peaked at about 14% I believe.

So they are making a lot of noise. The proportional representation EU countries use means they only exist in coalition. I’m not downplaying it - but the EU is absolutely not going to fall over on a populist wave even though on the fringes there are unhappy people getting stroppy.

The majority of people in the EU are quite strongly pro EU.

Actually, I'd like to revise my answer.

I forgot for a moment that The Project's viability/success is completely independent of how the people feel about it, so "30 year high of radical right populist support" doesn't actually counter "the Project is doing fine and has been for decades"

[kayc]

toppstuff said:

The rise in populist parties is real. For sure.

But it isn’t larger than 20% in any country and much lower than this in most. In the Netherlands Gert Wilders peaked at about 14% I believe.

So they are making a lot of noise. The proportional representation EU countries use means they only exist in coalition. I’m not downplaying it - but the EU is absolutely not going to fall over on a populist wave even though on the fringes there are unhappy people getting stroppy.

The majority of people in the EU are quite strongly pro EU.

Wouldn't it be nice if our European friends had a vote too to see if your statement is true.

[bitchstewie]

toppstuff said:

The rise in populist parties is real. For sure.

But it isn’t larger than 20% in any country and much lower than this in most. In the Netherlands Gert Wilders peaked at about 14% I believe.

So they are making a lot of noise. The proportional representation EU countries use means they only exist in coalition. I’m not downplaying it - but the EU is absolutely not going to fall over on a populist wave even though on the fringes there are unhappy people getting stroppy.

The majority of people in the EU are quite strongly pro EU.

I think the simple question is if you take away the EU would these parties disappear?

The answer is no, they'll simply find another thing to dislike and another set of people to blame.

Same thing with UKIP, they thought Leave was a done deal so rather than wrap it up they go after the anti-Muslim vote.

There will always be something or someone to rail against if you're that way inclined.

[Murph7355]

philv said:

The main question/point was.....

How long has to go by before tne referendum result is no longer sound?

I beleive approximately in the 3 years from referendum to brexit next year -

2 million new elligable viters
2 million dead

33 million voted in brexit

I am not suggesting all those that died voted, or that all new voters will vote of course.

Then what are you suggesting?

There is no evidence whatsoever that a second referendum will return a different result, let alone one so materially different that it would overturn the last one with any legitimacy. This has all been covered. There is no majority for a second referendum. But if you fancy it, detail out what question you'd ask, what results you'd allow and what you will do with the results in all scenarios. Ghibli will help as he's evidently busy thinking through this.

How long to wait? First marker is to actually enact the first. It was always going to take at least 2yrs. It may now take longer than that.

Second marker? Remain proponents seem to base their crystal ball gazing on 15yrs or 2030. Around then seems sensible - that timescale evidently has some relevance to Remain voters and economists alike.

Third marker? We've been in the EU for 25yrs. The result of that experiment was a vote to leave... Again it would seem apt to at least run the next experiment for the same amount of time to get balanced assessments.

And finally we've been members of the co-op for 45yrs. One presumes we'll have a reasonable trade deal once more with the EU by then so let's give it that time to check.