How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 6)
Discussion
kayc said:
ouldn't it be nice if our European friends had a vote too to see if your statement is true.
Several countries have had votes that gave people the chance to express concerns. A few months ago people were predicting the Dutch would want a leave vote. Never happened. And they don’t want it. They aren’t alone. Quick google for EU support levels found this.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/...
Bottom line is your wishful thinking that anti -EU thinking is a consensus is utter bobbins.
Edited by toppstuff on Friday 7th December 08:08
philv said:
The main question/point was.....
How long has to go by before tne referendum result is no longer sound?
I beleive approximately in the 3 years from referendum to brexit next year -
2 million new elligable viters
2 million dead
33 million voted in brexit
I am not suggesting all those that died voted, or that all new voters will vote of course.
You are also forgetting the 4 million that are 3 years older and therefore more likely by your reckoning to vote leave...How long has to go by before tne referendum result is no longer sound?
I beleive approximately in the 3 years from referendum to brexit next year -
2 million new elligable viters
2 million dead
33 million voted in brexit
I am not suggesting all those that died voted, or that all new voters will vote of course.
Edited by philv on Friday 7th December 01:13
toppstuff said:
The majority of people in the EU are quite strongly pro EU.
I wonder if that's true though? I'm sure a majority of people in the EU are pro-European and I actually think that applies to a majority of the people in the UK as well. However, that's quite different from being strongly pro the institutions and vision of the EU; there certainly isn't a majority for that in the UK - not even close IMO - and I'm not so sure people elsewhere in Europe are quite as wedded to the EU ideal as you suggest. Most haven't been asked recently in a referendum and even if a majority voted to stay I suspect many would be doing so more because they could see it being difficult to leave rather than because they really want to be in. Personally I'm just not convinced the politician vision of ever closer union in a federal United States of Europe has strong support across the people of the EU; probably more chance of finding people who embrace the idea on continental Europe than in the UK but still not sure it would constitute a majority....
JNW1 said:
I wonder if that's true though? I'm sure a majority of people in the EU are pro-European and I actually think that applies to a majority of the people in the UK as well. However, that's quite different from being strongly pro the institutions and vision of the EU; there certainly isn't a majority for that in the UK - not even close IMO - and I'm not so sure people elsewhere in Europe are quite as wedded to the EU ideal as you suggest.
Most haven't been asked recently in a referendum and even if a majority voted to stay I suspect many would be doing so more because they could see it being difficult to leave rather than because they really want to be in. Personally I'm just not convinced the politician vision of ever closer union in a federal United States of Europe has strong support across the people of the EU; probably more chance of finding people who embrace the idea on continental Europe than in the UK but still not sure it would constitute a majority....
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1IO2SPMost haven't been asked recently in a referendum and even if a majority voted to stay I suspect many would be doing so more because they could see it being difficult to leave rather than because they really want to be in. Personally I'm just not convinced the politician vision of ever closer union in a federal United States of Europe has strong support across the people of the EU; probably more chance of finding people who embrace the idea on continental Europe than in the UK but still not sure it would constitute a majority....
toppstuff said:
JNW1 said:
I wonder if that's true though? I'm sure a majority of people in the EU are pro-European and I actually think that applies to a majority of the people in the UK as well. However, that's quite different from being strongly pro the institutions and vision of the EU; there certainly isn't a majority for that in the UK - not even close IMO - and I'm not so sure people elsewhere in Europe are quite as wedded to the EU ideal as you suggest.
Most haven't been asked recently in a referendum and even if a majority voted to stay I suspect many would be doing so more because they could see it being difficult to leave rather than because they really want to be in. Personally I'm just not convinced the politician vision of ever closer union in a federal United States of Europe has strong support across the people of the EU; probably more chance of finding people who embrace the idea on continental Europe than in the UK but still not sure it would constitute a majority....
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1IO2SPMost haven't been asked recently in a referendum and even if a majority voted to stay I suspect many would be doing so more because they could see it being difficult to leave rather than because they really want to be in. Personally I'm just not convinced the politician vision of ever closer union in a federal United States of Europe has strong support across the people of the EU; probably more chance of finding people who embrace the idea on continental Europe than in the UK but still not sure it would constitute a majority....
However, if you take the figures at face value it suggests 53% of people in the UK are pro-EU which is, frankly, nonsense. In the 2016 referendum only 48% voted Remain but of those I'd venture to suggest a large proportion did so not because they like the EU but because they could see difficulties and economic downside associated with leaving.
If the proportion of the UK electorate which truly supports and embraces the EU vision (ever closer political union, etc) is as high as 25% I'd be surprised.....
JNW1 said:
toppstuff said:
The majority of people in the EU are quite strongly pro EU.
I wonder if that's true though? I'm sure a majority of people in the EU are pro-European and I actually think that applies to a majority of the people in the UK as well. However, that's quite different from being strongly pro the institutions and vision of the EU; there certainly isn't a majority for that in the UK - not even close IMO - and I'm not so sure people elsewhere in Europe are quite as wedded to the EU ideal as you suggest. Most haven't been asked recently in a referendum and even if a majority voted to stay I suspect many would be doing so more because they could see it being difficult to leave rather than because they really want to be in. Personally I'm just not convinced the politician vision of ever closer union in a federal United States of Europe has strong support across the people of the EU; probably more chance of finding people who embrace the idea on continental Europe than in the UK but still not sure it would constitute a majority....
Vanden Saab said:
philv said:
The main question/point was.....
How long has to go by before tne referendum result is no longer sound?
I beleive approximately in the 3 years from referendum to brexit next year -
2 million new elligable viters
2 million dead
33 million voted in brexit
I am not suggesting all those that died voted, or that all new voters will vote of course.
You are also forgetting the 4 million that are 3 years older and therefore more likely by your reckoning to vote leave...How long has to go by before tne referendum result is no longer sound?
I beleive approximately in the 3 years from referendum to brexit next year -
2 million new elligable viters
2 million dead
33 million voted in brexit
I am not suggesting all those that died voted, or that all new voters will vote of course.
Edited by philv on Friday 7th December 01:13
FTFY
.....although it feels like a damn sight more than 3 years after all this nonsense
StevieBee said:
I have a lot of business interests, colleagues and friends in Europe, particularly towards the eastern fringes. In those countries, the populations would fall over themselves to hand all power to the EU on account of the ineffective governance of their own countries by their own governments. For similar reasons, you have countries like Bosnia and Albania desperate to join.
I suppose we are all informed by the contact and relationships we have with people in the EU. My personal experience is with “middle class” working ordinary people in Netherlands, Ireland, Germany and also quite a few in Denmark. They think we have lost our minds and quite regularly take the mickey. To them brexit is like watching a man throw himself down the stairs. They are concerned we are injured while also laughing hilariously at what a stupid thing we’ve done.
That’s my experience and I spend a lot of time EU citizens. Your mileage may vary.
StevieBee said:
I have a lot of business interests, colleagues and friends in Europe, particularly towards the eastern fringes. In those countries, the populations would fall over themselves to hand all power to the EU on account of the ineffective governance of their own countries by their own governments. For similar reasons, you have countries like Bosnia and Albania desperate to join.
I think this is a very interesting point.
From the U.K. perspective, as a substantial nation, a cradle of democracy and a big economy, we find it hard to delegate to the EU, an organisation dominated by Germany and France, and where we are unlikely to ever be given a policy leading role unless we join the Euro.
By contrast countries with weaker economies and weaker democratic histories are glad to have grown ups, even with faults, protecting their interests.
This, fundamentally, gets to the core of why we are not suited to be a member of the EU itself.
loafer123 said:
I think this is a very interesting point.
From the U.K. perspective, as a substantial nation, a cradle of democracy and a big economy, we find it hard to delegate to the EU, an organisation dominated by Germany and France, and where we are unlikely to ever be given a policy leading role unless we join the Euro.
By contrast countries with weaker economies and weaker democratic histories are glad to have grown ups, even with faults, protecting their interests.
This, fundamentally, gets to the core of why we are not suited to be a member of the EU itself.
Or you could say we are control freaks and don't partner well with others.From the U.K. perspective, as a substantial nation, a cradle of democracy and a big economy, we find it hard to delegate to the EU, an organisation dominated by Germany and France, and where we are unlikely to ever be given a policy leading role unless we join the Euro.
By contrast countries with weaker economies and weaker democratic histories are glad to have grown ups, even with faults, protecting their interests.
This, fundamentally, gets to the core of why we are not suited to be a member of the EU itself.
PurpleMoonlight said:
loafer123 said:
I think this is a very interesting point.
From the U.K. perspective, as a substantial nation, a cradle of democracy and a big economy, we find it hard to delegate to the EU, an organisation dominated by Germany and France, and where we are unlikely to ever be given a policy leading role unless we join the Euro.
By contrast countries with weaker economies and weaker democratic histories are glad to have grown ups, even with faults, protecting their interests.
This, fundamentally, gets to the core of why we are not suited to be a member of the EU itself.
Or you could say we are control freaks and don't partner well with others.From the U.K. perspective, as a substantial nation, a cradle of democracy and a big economy, we find it hard to delegate to the EU, an organisation dominated by Germany and France, and where we are unlikely to ever be given a policy leading role unless we join the Euro.
By contrast countries with weaker economies and weaker democratic histories are glad to have grown ups, even with faults, protecting their interests.
This, fundamentally, gets to the core of why we are not suited to be a member of the EU itself.
Perhaps we should have another election. Lib Dems could go on a 's
t or bust' strategy of single issue cancel Brexit altogether.
They've nothing to loose. A well established party and not some newcomer nut job. Some relatively recent experience of being in power, albeit in a coalition, a smattering of respected brains and pretty much no electorate support after the last election, whereas both Labour and Conservatives have both camps of brexiteers and remainers to keep onside.
They'd probably get a good slug of the SNP supporters for this one election, half the labour ones and half the conservative ones, the DUP ones, plus most of their own. They might emerge with a whopping majority. No need for a second referendum as a regular election would have very much given a mandate to knock it on the head.
I'm not a Lib Dem voter naturally, but for the sake of one parliamentary term, I'd vote for them on this single platform issue. How much damage could they do in one term??? Not as much as in my view Brexit will do over the same period. Following election, it would be staggaring for any party to propose resurecting a referrendum.
Any other outcome in an election won't resolve the issues at all. Conservatives are stuck and re-electing them won't change anything. Labour think they can magic another deal by taking a diffrent approach. Well, the EU has already said this deal or nothing so that's pure fantasy - they'll quickly find they are holding the steaming pile of st that is Brexit with no ability to do anything about it either. We'll have the joy of Corbyn then also in control of the country. It doesn't bear thinking about.
A second referendum would be devisive, no matter how much I'd welcome one.
So, my hope is that if the vote doesn't get through parliament, May is forced to resign and an election is called, Lib Dems take a very singluar and clear line and takes a vast parliamentary majority as they sweep up the 48%+.
t or bust' strategy of single issue cancel Brexit altogether. They've nothing to loose. A well established party and not some newcomer nut job. Some relatively recent experience of being in power, albeit in a coalition, a smattering of respected brains and pretty much no electorate support after the last election, whereas both Labour and Conservatives have both camps of brexiteers and remainers to keep onside.
They'd probably get a good slug of the SNP supporters for this one election, half the labour ones and half the conservative ones, the DUP ones, plus most of their own. They might emerge with a whopping majority. No need for a second referendum as a regular election would have very much given a mandate to knock it on the head.
I'm not a Lib Dem voter naturally, but for the sake of one parliamentary term, I'd vote for them on this single platform issue. How much damage could they do in one term??? Not as much as in my view Brexit will do over the same period. Following election, it would be staggaring for any party to propose resurecting a referrendum.
Any other outcome in an election won't resolve the issues at all. Conservatives are stuck and re-electing them won't change anything. Labour think they can magic another deal by taking a diffrent approach. Well, the EU has already said this deal or nothing so that's pure fantasy - they'll quickly find they are holding the steaming pile of s
t that is Brexit with no ability to do anything about it either. We'll have the joy of Corbyn then also in control of the country. It doesn't bear thinking about. A second referendum would be devisive, no matter how much I'd welcome one.
So, my hope is that if the vote doesn't get through parliament, May is forced to resign and an election is called, Lib Dems take a very singluar and clear line and takes a vast parliamentary majority as they sweep up the 48%+.
loafer123 said:
StevieBee said:
I have a lot of business interests, colleagues and friends in Europe, particularly towards the eastern fringes. In those countries, the populations would fall over themselves to hand all power to the EU on account of the ineffective governance of their own countries by their own governments. For similar reasons, you have countries like Bosnia and Albania desperate to join.
I think this is a very interesting point.
From the U.K. perspective, as a substantial nation, a cradle of democracy and a big economy, we find it hard to delegate to the EU, an organisation dominated by Germany and France, and where we are unlikely to ever be given a policy leading role unless we join the Euro.
By contrast countries with weaker economies and weaker democratic histories are glad to have grown ups, even with faults, protecting their interests.
This, fundamentally, gets to the core of why we are not suited to be a member of the EU itself.
Probably serves to illustrate why trying to put diverging countries and economies together in one union isn't easy and doesn't always work well....
biggles330d said:
So, my hope is that if the vote doesn't get through parliament, May is forced to resign and an election is called, Lib Dems take a very singluar and clear line and takes a vast parliamentary majority as they sweep up the 48%+.
Only in your (and my) dreams, I'm afraid. The two-party system is too deeply embedded in this country for the LD's to make such an impact. They pretty much took this position in 2017 and went from just 8 to 12 seats, despite having 57 in 2010. And with Cable's departure "once Brexit is resolved" their future leadership is pretty unclear.Also they can't even get all 12 MPs on-side to vote against May's deal. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46470414
biggles330d said:
Perhaps we should have another election. Lib Dems could go on a 'st or bust' strategy of single issue cancel Brexit altogether.
They've nothing to loose. A well established party and not some newcomer nut job. Some relatively recent experience of being in power, albeit in a coalition, a smattering of respected brains and pretty much no electorate support after the last election, whereas both Labour and Conservatives have both camps of brexiteers and remainers to keep onside.
They'd probably get a good slug of the SNP supporters for this one election, half the labour ones and half the conservative ones, the DUP ones, plus most of their own. They might emerge with a whopping majority. No need for a second referendum as a regular election would have very much given a mandate to knock it on the head.
I'm not a Lib Dem voter naturally, but for the sake of one parliamentary term, I'd vote for them on this single platform issue. How much damage could they do in one term??? Not as much as in my view Brexit will do over the same period. Following election, it would be staggaring for any party to propose resurecting a referrendum.
Any other outcome in an election won't resolve the issues at all. Conservatives are stuck and re-electing them won't change anything. Labour think they can magic another deal by taking a diffrent approach. Well, the EU has already said this deal or nothing so that's pure fantasy - they'll quickly find they are holding the steaming pile of st that is Brexit with no ability to do anything about it either. We'll have the joy of Corbyn then also in control of the country. It doesn't bear thinking about.
A second referendum would be devisive, no matter how much I'd welcome one.
So, my hope is that if the vote doesn't get through parliament, May is forced to resign and an election is called, Lib Dems take a very singluar and clear line and takes a vast parliamentary majority as they sweep up the 48%+.
They tried running the anti-Brexit manifesto in the last election, it failed completely and they are more irrelevant than ever. Also have to love the irony of a party with Democrats in their name staking everything on cancelling a democratic vote.t or bust' strategy of single issue cancel Brexit altogether. They've nothing to loose. A well established party and not some newcomer nut job. Some relatively recent experience of being in power, albeit in a coalition, a smattering of respected brains and pretty much no electorate support after the last election, whereas both Labour and Conservatives have both camps of brexiteers and remainers to keep onside.
They'd probably get a good slug of the SNP supporters for this one election, half the labour ones and half the conservative ones, the DUP ones, plus most of their own. They might emerge with a whopping majority. No need for a second referendum as a regular election would have very much given a mandate to knock it on the head.
I'm not a Lib Dem voter naturally, but for the sake of one parliamentary term, I'd vote for them on this single platform issue. How much damage could they do in one term??? Not as much as in my view Brexit will do over the same period. Following election, it would be staggaring for any party to propose resurecting a referrendum.
Any other outcome in an election won't resolve the issues at all. Conservatives are stuck and re-electing them won't change anything. Labour think they can magic another deal by taking a diffrent approach. Well, the EU has already said this deal or nothing so that's pure fantasy - they'll quickly find they are holding the steaming pile of s
t that is Brexit with no ability to do anything about it either. We'll have the joy of Corbyn then also in control of the country. It doesn't bear thinking about. A second referendum would be devisive, no matter how much I'd welcome one.
So, my hope is that if the vote doesn't get through parliament, May is forced to resign and an election is called, Lib Dems take a very singluar and clear line and takes a vast parliamentary majority as they sweep up the 48%+.
toppstuff said:
kayc said:
ouldn't it be nice if our European friends had a vote too to see if your statement is true.
Several countries have had votes that gave people the chance to express concerns. A few months ago people were predicting the Dutch would want a leave vote. Never happened. And they don’t want it. They aren’t alone. Quick google for EU support levels found this.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/...
Bottom line is your wishful thinking that anti -EU thinking is a consensus is utter bobbins.
Edited by toppstuff on Friday 7th December 08:08
Brilliant. I've also held a poll in our house, and it turns out I'm the best dad in the world, and the missus is the best cook!
silentbrown said:
Only in your (and my) dreams, I'm afraid. The two-party system is too deeply embedded in this country for the LD's to make such an impact. They pretty much took this position in 2017 and went from just 8 to 12 seats, despite having 57 in 2010. And with Cable's departure "once Brexit is resolved" their future leadership is pretty unclear.
Also they can't even get all 12 MPs on-side to vote against May's deal. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46470414
Maybe, but look how much traction UKIP managed get from a starting point of being a personality-led fringe party campainging on a single issue. I think if the case was made and not muddied with mixed messages - i.e. "if you want Brexit of any type, there are several other parties who you can vote for".Also they can't even get all 12 MPs on-side to vote against May's deal. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46470414
I think a surprising amount of people would see this for what it is, an opportunity to wash your hands of this mess and if necessary, return to your party affiliations in 5 year's time. I can't believe people are so entrenched as to vote for their 'colour' when there is something so much more vastly important at stake and currently an unresolved (unresolvable) festering mess.
What might happen if this occurred? The country might well remain split on the EU but there would be no denying that through the nation had an election and a very clear mandate was secured. Currently, we voted on an undefined yes/no question and its evident that even this non-partisan question has descended into a farce as the parties squabble amongst themselves rather than collaborating.
If they got in, the markets would suddenly have the security and forward confidence they crave. The £ would rise and investments that have been held back, diverted and put on ice might suddenly start flowing again quickly. I think there would be a collective sigh of relief in the nation. I'm sure there are many who argued strongly for Brexit in 2016 and feel they should stick to that line rather than being thought of as changing their mind or being seen as voting one way without really understanding what it meant in the detail.
The problem that Remain, and by default the rest of us face, is that essentially the Brexit genie is out of the bottle. There is no magic lever or button that can be pulled and Brexit can be stopped, in the long term. Please note that emphasis.
The impending very British coup will ultimately unleash a completely unstoppable political realignment. Leavers have been naive, you win the referendum, the Govt enacts the decision. Remainers have been equally naive, failing to understand that the 2016 EURef cannot be undone, they have no plan to stop the consequent political realignment. It will, in the minds of many, now be us versus them. Plus the EU question will haunt every election until a bubble bursts. The Commons will no longer be seen as worthy of representing the common people. No longer trusted with the idea of leaving the EU, an idea that cannot be uninvented.
The impending very British coup will ultimately unleash a completely unstoppable political realignment. Leavers have been naive, you win the referendum, the Govt enacts the decision. Remainers have been equally naive, failing to understand that the 2016 EURef cannot be undone, they have no plan to stop the consequent political realignment. It will, in the minds of many, now be us versus them. Plus the EU question will haunt every election until a bubble bursts. The Commons will no longer be seen as worthy of representing the common people. No longer trusted with the idea of leaving the EU, an idea that cannot be uninvented.
biggles330d said:
I'm sure there are many who argued strongly for Brexit in 2016 and feel they should stick to that line rather than being thought of as changing their mind or being seen as voting one way without really understanding what it meant in the detail.
Ah the " they were too stupid to know what they were voting for" and now with the added bonus of "and now too embarrassed to admit they were wrong"...is that a fair assessment Biggles?StevieBee said:
JNW1 said:
toppstuff said:
The majority of people in the EU are quite strongly pro EU.
I wonder if that's true though? I'm sure a majority of people in the EU are pro-European and I actually think that applies to a majority of the people in the UK as well. However, that's quite different from being strongly pro the institutions and vision of the EU; there certainly isn't a majority for that in the UK - not even close IMO - and I'm not so sure people elsewhere in Europe are quite as wedded to the EU ideal as you suggest. Most haven't been asked recently in a referendum and even if a majority voted to stay I suspect many would be doing so more because they could see it being difficult to leave rather than because they really want to be in. Personally I'm just not convinced the politician vision of ever closer union in a federal United States of Europe has strong support across the people of the EU; probably more chance of finding people who embrace the idea on continental Europe than in the UK but still not sure it would constitute a majority....
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