How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 6)

How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 6)

Author
Discussion

kayc

3,695 posts

157 months

Friday 7th December
quotequote all
Jimboka said:
Funny that Farage & his cronies have been predicting/wishing for the implosion of the EU for years. It didn’t happen then & wont in the years to come.
Are you sure?Its moving nicely that way at the moment..the leader of the most pro European integration country has a 20% approval rating and has shut half his Capital city this weekend coming...Italy just been told to get back in its box with its budget but for how long?Merkel under pressure massively ..and the Greeks battling on and no-one gives a st about them..such European harmony and something to be proud to be a member of..

mx5nut

2,497 posts

18 months

Friday 7th December
quotequote all
PurpleMoonlight said:
So it looks like Parliament doesn't want May's deal and doesn't want no deal, they want a different deal but almost every MP as a different idea of what that should be.
Much like every leave voter did when they cast their vote. It was never going to be possible to implement anything that made a majority happy. The Brexit project is falling apart.

amusingduck

3,245 posts

72 months

Friday 7th December
quotequote all
philv said:
The main question/point was.....

How long has to go by before tne referendum result is no longer sound?

I beleive approximately in the 3 years from referendum to brexit next year -

2 million new elligable viters
2 million dead

33 million voted in brexit

I am not suggesting all those that died voted, or that all new voters will vote of course.

Edited by philv on Friday 7th December 01:13
33 million, + 2million new, -2million dead

Total change = ~6%


6% is your threshold for a referendum being "no longer sound"?

Then you must surely be advocating that we re-visit the EU debate every few years, forever?

TTmonkey

14,309 posts

183 months

Friday 7th December
quotequote all
philv said:
The main question/point was.....

How long has to go by before tne referendum result is no longer sound?

I beleive approximately in the 3 years from referendum to brexit next year -

2 million new elligable viters
2 million dead

33 million voted in brexit

I am not suggesting all those that died voted, or that all new voters will vote of course.




Edited by philv on Friday 7th December 01:13
Actually you are missing a major factor on any urea remain voting population. The millions of immigrants being granted citizenship since the Brexit vote. I’m going to guess that the majority of them wouldn’t vote to remain in any future vote.

toppstuff

12,273 posts

183 months

Friday 7th December
quotequote all
kayc said:
re you sure?Its moving nicely that way at the moment..the leader of the most pro European integration country has a 20% approval rating and has shut half his city this weekend coming...Italy just been told to get back in its box with its budget but for how long?Merkel under pressure massively ..and the Greeks battling on and no-one gives a st about them..such European harmony and something to be proud to be a member of..
French issues are not about the EU. Ireland is doing very well indeed and Portugal is recovering nicely.
You can find things to support your belief system on either side.

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amusingduck

3,245 posts

72 months

Friday 7th December
quotequote all
Coolbanana said:
Indeed, the Haters love to spew their negativity and criticize the EU at every turn with spittle leaking from their lips, but the fact is, the Project is doing just fine and has been for decades.
A Bloomberg analysis of decades of election results across 22 European countries reveals that support for populist radical-right parties is higher than it’s been at any time over the past 30 years.

I guess that's intentional then laugh

kayc

3,695 posts

157 months

Friday 7th December
quotequote all
toppstuff said:
French issues are not about the EU. Ireland is doing very well indeed and Portugal is recovering nicely.
You can find things to support your belief system on either side.
mm...not sure Ireland/Portugal quite have the influence France does tbh..

toppstuff

12,273 posts

183 months

Friday 7th December
quotequote all
amusingduck said:
Coolbanana said:
Indeed, the Haters love to spew their negativity and criticize the EU at every turn with spittle leaking from their lips, but the fact is, the Project is doing just fine and has been for decades.
A Bloomberg analysis of decades of election results across 22 European countries reveals that support for populist radical-right parties is higher than it’s been at any time over the past 30 years.

I guess that's intentional then laugh
The rise in populist parties is real. For sure.

But it isn’t larger than 20% in any country and much lower than this in most. In the Netherlands Gert Wilders peaked at about 14% I believe.

So they are making a lot of noise. The proportional representation EU countries use means they only exist in coalition. I’m not downplaying it - but the EU is absolutely not going to fall over on a populist wave even though on the fringes there are unhappy people getting stroppy.

The majority of people in the EU are quite strongly pro EU.

amusingduck

3,245 posts

72 months

Friday 7th December
quotequote all
toppstuff said:
amusingduck said:
Coolbanana said:
Indeed, the Haters love to spew their negativity and criticize the EU at every turn with spittle leaking from their lips, but the fact is, the Project is doing just fine and has been for decades.
A Bloomberg analysis of decades of election results across 22 European countries reveals that support for populist radical-right parties is higher than it’s been at any time over the past 30 years.

I guess that's intentional then laugh
The rise in populist parties is real. For sure.

But it isn’t larger than 20% in any country and much lower than this in most. In the Netherlands Gert Wilders peaked at about 14% I believe.

So they are making a lot of noise. The proportional representation EU countries use means they only exist in coalition. I’m not downplaying it - but the EU is absolutely not going to fall over on a populist wave even though on the fringes there are unhappy people getting stroppy.

The majority of people in the EU are quite strongly pro EU.
Actually, I'd like to revise my answer.

I forgot for a moment that The Project's viability/success is completely independent of how the people feel about it, so "30 year high of radical right populist support" doesn't actually counter "the Project is doing fine and has been for decades"

biggrin

kayc

3,695 posts

157 months

Friday 7th December
quotequote all
toppstuff said:
The rise in populist parties is real. For sure.

But it isn’t larger than 20% in any country and much lower than this in most. In the Netherlands Gert Wilders peaked at about 14% I believe.

So they are making a lot of noise. The proportional representation EU countries use means they only exist in coalition. I’m not downplaying it - but the EU is absolutely not going to fall over on a populist wave even though on the fringes there are unhappy people getting stroppy.

The majority of people in the EU are quite strongly pro EU.
Wouldn't it be nice if our European friends had a vote too to see if your statement is true.

bitchstewie

17,981 posts

146 months

Friday 7th December
quotequote all
toppstuff said:
The rise in populist parties is real. For sure.

But it isn’t larger than 20% in any country and much lower than this in most. In the Netherlands Gert Wilders peaked at about 14% I believe.

So they are making a lot of noise. The proportional representation EU countries use means they only exist in coalition. I’m not downplaying it - but the EU is absolutely not going to fall over on a populist wave even though on the fringes there are unhappy people getting stroppy.

The majority of people in the EU are quite strongly pro EU.
I think the simple question is if you take away the EU would these parties disappear?

The answer is no, they'll simply find another thing to dislike and another set of people to blame.

Same thing with UKIP, they thought Leave was a done deal so rather than wrap it up they go after the anti-Muslim vote.

There will always be something or someone to rail against if you're that way inclined.

Murph7355

20,774 posts

192 months

Friday 7th December
quotequote all
philv said:
The main question/point was.....

How long has to go by before tne referendum result is no longer sound?

I beleive approximately in the 3 years from referendum to brexit next year -

2 million new elligable viters
2 million dead

33 million voted in brexit

I am not suggesting all those that died voted, or that all new voters will vote of course.
Then what are you suggesting?

There is no evidence whatsoever that a second referendum will return a different result, let alone one so materially different that it would overturn the last one with any legitimacy. This has all been covered. There is no majority for a second referendum. But if you fancy it, detail out what question you'd ask, what results you'd allow and what you will do with the results in all scenarios. Ghibli will help as he's evidently busy thinking through this.

How long to wait? First marker is to actually enact the first. It was always going to take at least 2yrs. It may now take longer than that.

Second marker? Remain proponents seem to base their crystal ball gazing on 15yrs or 2030. Around then seems sensible - that timescale evidently has some relevance to Remain voters and economists alike.

Third marker? We've been in the EU for 25yrs. The result of that experiment was a vote to leave... Again it would seem apt to at least run the next experiment for the same amount of time to get balanced assessments.

And finally we've been members of the co-op for 45yrs. One presumes we'll have a reasonable trade deal once more with the EU by then so let's give it that time to check.



toppstuff

12,273 posts

183 months

Friday 7th December
quotequote all
kayc said:
ouldn't it be nice if our European friends had a vote too to see if your statement is true.
Several countries have had votes that gave people the chance to express concerns. A few months ago people were predicting the Dutch would want a leave vote. Never happened. And they don’t want it. They aren’t alone.

Quick google for EU support levels found this.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/...

Bottom line is your wishful thinking that anti -EU thinking is a consensus is utter bobbins.

Edited by toppstuff on Friday 7th December 08:08

Vanden Saab

1,124 posts

10 months

Friday 7th December
quotequote all
philv said:
The main question/point was.....

How long has to go by before tne referendum result is no longer sound?

I beleive approximately in the 3 years from referendum to brexit next year -

2 million new elligable viters
2 million dead

33 million voted in brexit

I am not suggesting all those that died voted, or that all new voters will vote of course.




Edited by philv on Friday 7th December 01:13
You are also forgetting the 4 million that are 3 years older and therefore more likely by your reckoning to vote leave...

JNW1

4,033 posts

130 months

Friday 7th December
quotequote all
toppstuff said:
The majority of people in the EU are quite strongly pro EU.
I wonder if that's true though? I'm sure a majority of people in the EU are pro-European and I actually think that applies to a majority of the people in the UK as well. However, that's quite different from being strongly pro the institutions and vision of the EU; there certainly isn't a majority for that in the UK - not even close IMO - and I'm not so sure people elsewhere in Europe are quite as wedded to the EU ideal as you suggest.

Most haven't been asked recently in a referendum and even if a majority voted to stay I suspect many would be doing so more because they could see it being difficult to leave rather than because they really want to be in. Personally I'm just not convinced the politician vision of ever closer union in a federal United States of Europe has strong support across the people of the EU; probably more chance of finding people who embrace the idea on continental Europe than in the UK but still not sure it would constitute a majority....

toppstuff

12,273 posts

183 months

Friday 7th December
quotequote all
JNW1 said:
I wonder if that's true though? I'm sure a majority of people in the EU are pro-European and I actually think that applies to a majority of the people in the UK as well. However, that's quite different from being strongly pro the institutions and vision of the EU; there certainly isn't a majority for that in the UK - not even close IMO - and I'm not so sure people elsewhere in Europe are quite as wedded to the EU ideal as you suggest.

Most haven't been asked recently in a referendum and even if a majority voted to stay I suspect many would be doing so more because they could see it being difficult to leave rather than because they really want to be in. Personally I'm just not convinced the politician vision of ever closer union in a federal United States of Europe has strong support across the people of the EU; probably more chance of finding people who embrace the idea on continental Europe than in the UK but still not sure it would constitute a majority....
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1IO2SP

JNW1

4,033 posts

130 months

Friday 7th December
quotequote all
toppstuff said:
JNW1 said:
I wonder if that's true though? I'm sure a majority of people in the EU are pro-European and I actually think that applies to a majority of the people in the UK as well. However, that's quite different from being strongly pro the institutions and vision of the EU; there certainly isn't a majority for that in the UK - not even close IMO - and I'm not so sure people elsewhere in Europe are quite as wedded to the EU ideal as you suggest.

Most haven't been asked recently in a referendum and even if a majority voted to stay I suspect many would be doing so more because they could see it being difficult to leave rather than because they really want to be in. Personally I'm just not convinced the politician vision of ever closer union in a federal United States of Europe has strong support across the people of the EU; probably more chance of finding people who embrace the idea on continental Europe than in the UK but still not sure it would constitute a majority....
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1IO2SP
Yes, I saw that link after I'd typed my post!

However, if you take the figures at face value it suggests 53% of people in the UK are pro-EU which is, frankly, nonsense. In the 2016 referendum only 48% voted Remain but of those I'd venture to suggest a large proportion did so not because they like the EU but because they could see difficulties and economic downside associated with leaving.

If the proportion of the UK electorate which truly supports and embraces the EU vision (ever closer political union, etc) is as high as 25% I'd be surprised.....

StevieBee

6,996 posts

191 months

Friday 7th December
quotequote all
JNW1 said:
toppstuff said:
The majority of people in the EU are quite strongly pro EU.
I wonder if that's true though? I'm sure a majority of people in the EU are pro-European and I actually think that applies to a majority of the people in the UK as well. However, that's quite different from being strongly pro the institutions and vision of the EU; there certainly isn't a majority for that in the UK - not even close IMO - and I'm not so sure people elsewhere in Europe are quite as wedded to the EU ideal as you suggest.

Most haven't been asked recently in a referendum and even if a majority voted to stay I suspect many would be doing so more because they could see it being difficult to leave rather than because they really want to be in. Personally I'm just not convinced the politician vision of ever closer union in a federal United States of Europe has strong support across the people of the EU; probably more chance of finding people who embrace the idea on continental Europe than in the UK but still not sure it would constitute a majority....
I have a lot of business interests, colleagues and friends in Europe, particularly towards the eastern fringes. In those countries, the populations would fall over themselves to hand all power to the EU on account of the ineffective governance of their own countries by their own governments. For similar reasons, you have countries like Bosnia and Albania desperate to join.


Speed 3

2,226 posts

55 months

Friday 7th December
quotequote all
Vanden Saab said:
philv said:
The main question/point was.....

How long has to go by before tne referendum result is no longer sound?

I beleive approximately in the 3 years from referendum to brexit next year -

2 million new elligable viters
2 million dead

33 million voted in brexit

I am not suggesting all those that died voted, or that all new voters will vote of course.




Edited by philv on Friday 7th December 01:13
You are also forgetting the 4 million that are 3 years older and therefore more likely by your reckoning to vote leave...
You are also forgetting the (4)31 million that are 3 years older

FTFY beer

.....although it feels like a damn sight more than 3 years after all this nonsense

toppstuff

12,273 posts

183 months

Friday 7th December
quotequote all
StevieBee said:
I have a lot of business interests, colleagues and friends in Europe, particularly towards the eastern fringes. In those countries, the populations would fall over themselves to hand all power to the EU on account of the ineffective governance of their own countries by their own governments. For similar reasons, you have countries like Bosnia and Albania desperate to join.
I suppose we are all informed by the contact and relationships we have with people in the EU. My personal experience is with “middle class” working ordinary people in Netherlands, Ireland, Germany and also quite a few in Denmark.

They think we have lost our minds and quite regularly take the mickey. To them brexit is like watching a man throw himself down the stairs. They are concerned we are injured while also laughing hilariously at what a stupid thing we’ve done.

That’s my experience and I spend a lot of time EU citizens. Your mileage may vary.