How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 7)

How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 7)

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Helicopter123

5,206 posts

95 months

Saturday 12th January
quotequote all
gadgetmac said:
So the commons votes against Mays deal but also comes to a consensus that it won’t accept a no-deal brexit.

I know it’s simplistic but how do you tell your negotiating adversary that you will not accept a no-deal situation?

They’ve offered a deal and we’ve refused it.

If they hold their stance surely thats what we will have, a no-deal brexit in March, whether we like it or not.

confused
This only leaves us staying in, which, while some us would welcome, doesn’t feel like the right way to achieve it.

If parliament cannot decide, then send it back to the people. If they vote leave a second time then we just leave the following week and to hell with the consequences.

If we vote remain then it’s Dallas time.

Tuna

9,683 posts

223 months

Saturday 12th January
quotequote all
bhstewie said:
Tuna said:
It's a fantasy that either side was voting for a known, set-in-stone, economically rosey, full employment and home in time for tea outcome.
I'm sorry as you're usually quite pragmatic but I profoundly disagree with you on this point.

That's exactly what was being promised.
Labour's Manifesto from 2005:

"Forward to Increased Prosperity, not Boom and Bust"

"Low Debt and High Employment"

"Prosperity for All"

Conservative Manifesto from 1987:

"A Strong and Stable Government"

"Building Prosperity and Employment"

Show me a vote where the campaigns didn't promise a utopian vision of the future. The political arguments being made are for a direction of travel. We vote knowing that the implementation often doesn't match the grand vision, but we choose how we want the choices to be made.

The fact that Leave did not specify the exact deal (or no deal) we would reach with the EU is interesting - people voted anyway. Which surely suggests that they were not concerned so much with the how, but the basic principle? Do we want to be part of Europe or not?

I don't see how this is different from the usual elections where we choose Labour, Conservative, LibDems... when they subsequently do things we don't like (tuition fees, tax increases, you name it), we don't have long arguments over "You didn't know what you were voting for" or "but they promised Wealth for All". So why now?

PurpleMoonlight

14,841 posts

96 months

Saturday 12th January
quotequote all
loafer123 said:
If the choice is that or Remain, I support it.

However, May’s awful deal is not the only option to Leave.
Have faith, it'll be fine.

The Dangerous Elk

4,642 posts

16 months

Saturday 12th January
quotequote all
PurpleMoonlight said:
May's deal is leaving the EU.

I trust you are therefore supporting it.
And that is exactly the remaining question, May's deal (well, the Eu's only offer) or No Deal. MP's need to decide now and it can be a planned one as well.

Brexit has never been a "Party" thing with the public.

Glad you have finally got there ~

Tuna

9,683 posts

223 months

Saturday 12th January
quotequote all
Helicopter123 said:
This only leaves us staying in, which, while some us would welcome, doesn’t feel like the right way to achieve it.

If parliament cannot decide, then send it back to the people. If they vote leave a second time then we just leave the following week and to hell with the consequences.

If we vote remain then it’s Dallas time.
As was pointed out in the last volume, the time for a second ref appears to have gone. We can't have one between now and March 29th, and the EU are unlikely to extend A50 beyond May 23rd (EU elections), so there's not time between March and May either.

Plus, as is regularly pointed out, the 'Dallas option' only works on bad TV Soaps. Even if we can rescind A50, things don't go back to how they were. Our contributions are set to double over the next decade as we loose the rebate, we've already lost over 25% of EU Grants and Funding that are not automatically restored by taking back A50, and in the last 2.5 years, the EU itself has changed politically. We cannot go back to how it was, and a second ref can't even promise that rescinding A50 would be accepted by the ECJ.
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alfie2244

9,420 posts

127 months

Saturday 12th January
quotequote all
The Dangerous Elk said:
PurpleMoonlight said:
Welcome back then.

Be a good boy this time.

thumbup
Me ?....now who is being St##id !

oh st...done it again .....I will get my coat.
I've already got it for you getmecoat

bitchstewie

19,292 posts

149 months

Saturday 12th January
quotequote all
Tuna said:
bhstewie said:
Tuna said:
It's a fantasy that either side was voting for a known, set-in-stone, economically rosey, full employment and home in time for tea outcome.
I'm sorry as you're usually quite pragmatic but I profoundly disagree with you on this point.

That's exactly what was being promised.
Labour's Manifesto from 2005:

"Forward to Increased Prosperity, not Boom and Bust"

"Low Debt and High Employment"

"Prosperity for All"

Conservative Manifesto from 1987:

"A Strong and Stable Government"

"Building Prosperity and Employment"

Show me a vote where the campaigns didn't promise a utopian vision of the future. The political arguments being made are for a direction of travel. We vote knowing that the implementation often doesn't match the grand vision, but we choose how we want the choices to be made.

The fact that Leave did not specify the exact deal (or no deal) we would reach with the EU is interesting - people voted anyway. Which surely suggests that they were not concerned so much with the how, but the basic principle? Do we want to be part of Europe or not?

I don't see how this is different from the usual elections where we choose Labour, Conservative, LibDems... when they subsequently do things we don't like (tuition fees, tax increases, you name it), we don't have long arguments over "You didn't know what you were voting for" or "but they promised Wealth for All". So why now?
Politicians of all colours do that, we all know that.

The point is that you can vote politicians out at a general election if you don't think they've done what they promised.

We had two General Elections in as many years which demonstrates that point pretty well.

This was a "once in a generation" decision with such profound consequences for our nations future.

Why even bother to run campaigns if it can just all be bullst with no consequences and no chance to correct it once we find out it's bullst?

You should expect better.

PurpleMoonlight

14,841 posts

96 months

Saturday 12th January
quotequote all
The Dangerous Elk said:
And that is exactly the remaining question, May's deal (well, the Eu's only offer) or No Deal. MP's need to decide now and it can be a planned one as well.

Brexit has never been a "Party" thing with the public.

Glad you have finally got there ~
I don't have an issue with May's deal. I think she has done an amazing job getting something unique out of the EU.

I don't see the EU trying to lock us into the backstop.

gooner1

5,203 posts

118 months

Saturday 12th January
quotequote all
PurpleMoonlight said:
Who is now unbanned?
Moi. .angel
The others can speak for themselves. smile

PurpleMoonlight

14,841 posts

96 months

Saturday 12th January
quotequote all
alfie2244 said:
I've already got it for you getmecoat
Welcome back to you too.

thumbup

PurpleMoonlight

14,841 posts

96 months

Saturday 12th January
quotequote all
gooner1 said:
Moi. .angel
The others can speak for themselves. smile
Welcome back.

thumbup

alfie2244

9,420 posts

127 months

Saturday 12th January
quotequote all
PurpleMoonlight said:
alfie2244 said:
I've already got it for you getmecoat
Welcome back to you too.

thumbup
Ah bless you missed me....now where's slasher?

The Dangerous Elk

4,642 posts

16 months

Saturday 12th January
quotequote all
PurpleMoonlight said:
I don't have an issue with May's deal. I think she has done an amazing job getting something unique out of the EU.

I don't see the EU trying to lock us into the backstop.
Then they could just put that in legally. It is between us and the Irish to sort out the Good Friday Agreement and quite frankly, the Eu putting itself forward as judge and moral jury on than, well they can "do one".



PurpleMoonlight

14,841 posts

96 months

Saturday 12th January
quotequote all
The Dangerous Elk said:
Then they could just put that in legally. It is between us and the Irish to sort out the Good Friday Agreement and quite frankly, the Eu putting itself forward as judge and moral jury on than, well they can "do one".
Does it occur to you that Ireland may want the backstop?

loafer123

7,961 posts

154 months

Saturday 12th January
quotequote all
PurpleMoonlight said:
The Dangerous Elk said:
And that is exactly the remaining question, May's deal (well, the Eu's only offer) or No Deal. MP's need to decide now and it can be a planned one as well.

Brexit has never been a "Party" thing with the public.

Glad you have finally got there ~
I don't have an issue with May's deal. I think she has done an amazing job getting something unique out of the EU.

I don't see the EU trying to lock us into the backstop.
In the spirit of positiveness, I am also not particularly worried about the backstop itself.

The issue is that, without an end to the backstop, we have no negotiation power. They can hold us to ransom until we agree to their terms.

The issue with Mays Deal is the problem of being forced to keep using the EU tariffs rather being able to do our own trade deals. That is definitely not what Leave means.

gooner1

5,203 posts

118 months

Saturday 12th January
quotequote all
PurpleMoonlight said:
Welcome back.

thumbup
Thank off. smile

Garvin

2,488 posts

116 months

Saturday 12th January
quotequote all
PurpleMoonlight said:
. . . . . . . . I don't see the EU trying to lock us into the backstop.
On what basis don’t you see this? If the EU aren’t going to lock us in why did they insist on it?

PurpleMoonlight

14,841 posts

96 months

Saturday 12th January
quotequote all
loafer123 said:
In the spirit of positiveness, I am also not particularly worried about the backstop itself.

The issue is that, without an end to the backstop, we have no negotiation power. They can hold us to ransom until we agree to their terms.

The issue with Mays Deal is the problem of being forced to keep using the EU tariffs rather being able to do our own trade deals. That is definitely not what Leave means.
No, they have to negotiate the new trade agreement in good faith.

I'm sure the EU don't want this all dragging on for years as we don't.

loafer123

7,961 posts

154 months

Saturday 12th January
quotequote all
PurpleMoonlight said:
loafer123 said:
In the spirit of positiveness, I am also not particularly worried about the backstop itself.

The issue is that, without an end to the backstop, we have no negotiation power. They can hold us to ransom until we agree to their terms.

The issue with Mays Deal is the problem of being forced to keep using the EU tariffs rather being able to do our own trade deals. That is definitely not what Leave means.
No, they have to negotiate the new trade agreement in good faith.

I'm sure the EU don't want this all dragging on for years as we don't.
The political agreement says we basically remain in the Customs Union, and good faith is subjective.

It is a terrible deal from a negotiation standpoint.

PurpleMoonlight

14,841 posts

96 months

Saturday 12th January
quotequote all
Garvin said:
On what basis don’t you see this? If the EU aren’t going to lock us in why did they insist on it?
Everything I have read and watched on TV, in particular Cox's statement to the HoC.

It's not a backstop if it's time limited.
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