How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 7)

[Elysium]

dasigty said:

Elysium said:

You begin by confirming that the single market works. There is a lot of trade with the EU because it is easy.

So why leave it? What makes you think the unknown is better than something that demonstrably works for us?

How about you carry that train of thought to its logical conclusion ?.

Its just as easy for the EU, who just happen to sell approx twice as much to us, they do not have another market to sell into the goods we buy, so why ps off a BIG customer who can go elsewhere leaving you holding nothing but your d*ck.

The EU has badly judged the situation by thinking the British public are the same spineless breed as many of our bought and paid for politicians, there is a fast growing anti EU sentiment in this country that will effect what people buy in the future.

It's our decision to leave. The EU are not upsetting a big customer, the customer is deciding to go elsewhere. You are also making the common mistake of considering the EU position as a single entity. It is a group of member states.

The UK buys more than it sells, but it is buying from 27 different countries. If the UK goes elsewhere, any downside will be split amongst those countries. Our downside is ours alone.

They will still enjoy the easy 'single market' trade with each other, so individual countries will quickly step in to fill the gap we have left.

The EU can get by very well without us and we need to realise that. Our decisions should not be based on some idea that they will give us special freebie access to the club just because we are awesome.

[PurpleMoonlight]

Dr Jekyll said:

If no deal is off the table, if we are committed to accepting any deal no matter how bad, the EU will be as bad as they can make it. We've already seen this once.

I think parliament would leave with no deal providing the public authorised it via a second referendum. They just don't want to take direct responsibility for it.

[Helicopter123]

Elysium said:

It's our decision to leave. The EU are not upsetting a big customer, the customer is deciding to go elsewhere. You are also making the common mistake of considering the EU position as a single entity. It is a group of member states.

The UK buys more than it sells, but it is buying from 27 different countries. If the UK goes elsewhere, any downside will be split amongst those countries. Our downside is ours alone.

They will still enjoy the easy 'single market' trade with each other, so individual countries will quickly step in to fill the gap we have left.

The EU can get by very well without us and we need to realise that. Our decisions should not be based on some idea that they will give us special freebie access to the club just because we are awesome.

Good post.

[Murph7355]

frisbee said:

There are 27 countries. They'll each suffer a little bit but nowhere near as much as the UK. They'll each see massive opportunities to step in and replace the UK. Why do you think they all agreed to the withdrawal agreement in half an hour?

That's not how it will work.

The Single Market isn't a single market. It's 27 really quite different markets trading under common rules/standards/etc.

Some countries will be hugely impacted. I've seen commentary that suggests Ireland would likely take the biggest hit across all 28 nations involved. Which is logical looking at basic factors.

Where trade is concerned I imagine places like Romania will be less hit... Though net recipients stand a fair chance of a kick in the nuts due to the EU's net funds declining.

Of course other nations feeling pain too is neither the objective nor would it make our situation better. But to think any issues are diluted evenly because of the EU's notional aggregated size is folly (though it is exactly what the EU want everyone to believe as it's fundamental to key principles of the project).

chrispmartha said:

They won’t plummit at all, you really are being a bit hyperbolic about how much people are anti EU to the degree that they will stop buying a VW Golf if that’s the car they want, don’t judge everyone by your level of hatred.

It would depend, to extent, on what tariffs were applied. People won't buy a 1.4 Golf at any price. Though if they do, Hammond will be happy (happier...).

[Helicopter123]

B'stard Child said:

It's influenced all my purchases since 2016 although I did buy a Skoda last week and that did go against the grain - I just couldn't force myself to by a Kia or Hyundai

Could you not have bought something British made on principle?

[JNW1]

Dr Jekyll said:

JNW1 said:

Theresa May's deal has been rejected overwhelmingly and it appears the only thing which pretty much unites the House of Commons is a desire to reject no-deal (so rightly or wrongly that option is effectively off the table). Therefore, our practical alternatives are to either find an agreement which broadly satisfies and respects the result of the 2016 referendum or forget Brexit altogether and remain in the EU. As someone who voted Leave I obviously favour the former and the only type of deal I can now see getting a consensus in Parliament is something like Norway Plus; if there are other realistic alternatives I'd be happy to consider them but I'm not seeing many (any?) being suggested at the moment....

If no deal is off the table, if we are committed to accepting any deal no matter how bad, the EU will be as bad as they can make it. We've already seen this once.

Don't get me wrong, as a Leaver I think we should have prepared for no-deal from the outset and made it clear to the EU that we'd follow that route if an acceptable deal wasn't forthcoming. Problem is, we don't appear to have prepared anywhere near adequately for no-deal and - perhaps partly as a consequence - we have a House of Commons which simply won't support that option (something which effectively takes no-deal off the table as a negotiating tool in my eyes).

The EU won't extend Article 50 just to give us more time to prepare for no-deal so, as I say, we either look for a deal along the lines of something like Norway Plus - which Michel Barnier has already indicated the EU would be receptive to - or we fold completely and remain.

I suppose another option might be no-deal but still with a transition period and I guess the EU might go for that given a chaotic no-deal wouldn't be good for them either. However, for that to happen our MP's would still have to be prepared to allow no-deal to proceed and that doesn't seem likely at the moment; I do accept it's the default legal position as it stands but everything I'm seeing suggests further legislation will be put through between now and the end of March to change that...

[chrispmartha]

Murph7355 said:

frisbee said:

There are 27 countries. They'll each suffer a little bit but nowhere near as much as the UK. They'll each see massive opportunities to step in and replace the UK. Why do you think they all agreed to the withdrawal agreement in half an hour?

That's not how it will work.

The Single Market isn't a single market. It's 27 really quite different markets trading under common rules/standards/etc.

Some countries will be hugely impacted. I've seen commentary that suggests Ireland would likely take the biggest hit across all 28 nations involved. Which is logical looking at basic factors.

Where trade is concerned I imagine places like Romania will be less hit... Though net recipients stand a fair chance of a kick in the nuts due to the EU's net funds declining.

Of course other nations feeling pain too is neither the objective nor would it make our situation better. But to think any issues are diluted evenly because of the EU's notional aggregated size is folly (though it is exactly what the EU want everyone to believe as it's fundamental to key principles of the project).

chrispmartha said:

They won’t plummit at all, you really are being a bit hyperbolic about how much people are anti EU to the degree that they will stop buying a VW Golf if that’s the car they want, don’t judge everyone by your level of hatred.

It would depend, to extent, on what tariffs were applied. People won't buy a 1.4 Golf at any price. Though if they do, Hammond will be happy (happier...).

They might not buy a golf if the monthly payments go up by a lot, but that’s not my point.

[Vanden Saab]

chrispmartha said:

jsf said:

chrispmartha said:

Don’t get what? Enlighten me?

The poster above said that spending habits would change because of anti EU sentiment, im just questioning that as I think in reality it won’t

Mine already have.

The most likely fallout will be on major purchase decisions. German car sales would plummet.

They won’t plummit at all, you really are being a bit hyperbolic about how much people are anti EU to the degree that they will stop buying a VW Golf if that’s the car they want, don’t judge everyone by your level of hatred.

Maybe sales of Minis with Union Flag rear lights will go up eh? You know people buying british and all that ;-)

Edited by chrispmartha on Friday 18th January 08:09

My spending habits have changed too. IIRC last time this was discussed at least 7 or 8 people said theirs had changed too. You only have to multiply that by the number of people who actually post on this forum to realise that over the whole country it could make a big difference. Oh and it is not hatred. At the moment it is a way to show displeasure with the current situation and concentrate minds. If there is no Brexit I will be stepping up my protest to include companies who contributed to or spoke out strongly in favour of remain and will be encouraging others to do the same.
Disagreements these days are not at a rule settled with guns and tanks but by economics. Some remainers are keen to point out the Leavers are older, better off, have little to lose and have time on their hands. Give them a "cause" and watch what happens...

[anonymous-user]

Vanden Saab said:

My spending habits have changed too. IIRC last time this was discussed at least 7 or 8 people said theirs had changed too. You only have to multiply that by the number of people who actually post on this forum to realise that over the whole country it could make a big difference. Oh and it is not hatred. At the moment it is a way to show displeasure with the current situation and concentrate minds. If there is no Brexit I will be stepping up my protest to include companies who contributed to or spoke out strongly in favour of remain and will be encouraging others to do the same.
Disagreements these days are not at a rule settled with guns and tanks but by economics. Some remainers are keen to point out the Leavers are older, better off, have little to lose and have time on their hands. Give them a "cause" and watch what happens...

Thanks for the insight into your life. It sounds wonderful.

[The Dangerous Elk]

Ghibli said:

Thanks for the insight into your life. It sounds wonderful.

That comment reflects on you chum, condescension often seem like a great reply but...

[anonymous-user]

The Dangerous Elk said:

That comment reflects on you chum, condescension often seem like a great reply but...

I'm not fighting a war when I go shopping in the free world.

[chrispmartha]

Vanden Saab said:

chrispmartha said:

jsf said:

chrispmartha said:

Don’t get what? Enlighten me?

The poster above said that spending habits would change because of anti EU sentiment, im just questioning that as I think in reality it won’t

Mine already have.

The most likely fallout will be on major purchase decisions. German car sales would plummet.

They won’t plummit at all, you really are being a bit hyperbolic about how much people are anti EU to the degree that they will stop buying a VW Golf if that’s the car they want, don’t judge everyone by your level of hatred.

Maybe sales of Minis with Union Flag rear lights will go up eh? You know people buying british and all that ;-)

Edited by chrispmartha on Friday 18th January 08:09

My spending habits have changed too. IIRC last time this was discussed at least 7 or 8 people said theirs had changed too. You only have to multiply that by the number of people who actually post on this forum to realise that over the whole country it could make a big difference. Oh and it is not hatred. At the moment it is a way to show displeasure with the current situation and concentrate minds. If there is no Brexit I will be stepping up my protest to include companies who contributed to or spoke out strongly in favour of remain and will be encouraging others to do the same.
Disagreements these days are not at a rule settled with guns and tanks but by economics. Some remainers are keen to point out the Leavers are older, better off, have little to lose and have time on their hands. Give them a "cause" and watch what happens...

Well that’s up to you (I find it a little sad too but each to their own) but I stand by my assertion that you are and will be in a minority in your actions

[Digga]

Ghibli said:

The Dangerous Elk said:

That comment reflects on you chum, condescension often seem like a great reply but...

I'm not fighting a war when I go shopping in the free world.

You've never been in my local Co-Op when they wheel out the marked-down price trolley near closing time. Or Asda, on a Saturday afternoon, with three generations of the same gormless family swarming around a trolley they're managing to push diagonally down the aisle.

[crankedup]

bobbo89 said:

jsf said:

chrispmartha said:

Don’t get what? Enlighten me?

The poster above said that spending habits would change because of anti EU sentiment, im just questioning that as I think in reality it won’t

Mine already have.

The most likely fallout will be on major purchase decisions. German car sales would plummet.

I'm a pretty staunch Brexiteer but I do tend to agree with Crispy on this one and I really don't think it'll affect much when it comes to the purchasing decisions of the masses. People will continue to buy EU manufactured cars in huge numbers so long as that's what the masses want.

Also, let's be fair, the majority of people don't give a toss about the country of origin of a product and simply buy based on brand/label and cost.

Apparently the U.K. will be suffering financial nightmares, according to the remainers gospel.
That being the case it’s hard to imagine anti EU punters lining up to buy semi posh german cars. It will be more financially focused purchases for many people. I am not an EU hater but I do have a deep mistrust of thier future direction of power building. Pleased to leave.

[Not-The-Messiah]

JNW1 said:

Dr Jekyll said:

JNW1 said:

Theresa May's deal has been rejected overwhelmingly and it appears the only thing which pretty much unites the House of Commons is a desire to reject no-deal (so rightly or wrongly that option is effectively off the table). Therefore, our practical alternatives are to either find an agreement which broadly satisfies and respects the result of the 2016 referendum or forget Brexit altogether and remain in the EU. As someone who voted Leave I obviously favour the former and the only type of deal I can now see getting a consensus in Parliament is something like Norway Plus; if there are other realistic alternatives I'd be happy to consider them but I'm not seeing many (any?) being suggested at the moment....

If no deal is off the table, if we are committed to accepting any deal no matter how bad, the EU will be as bad as they can make it. We've already seen this once.

Don't get me wrong, as a Leaver I think we should have prepared for no-deal from the outset and made it clear to the EU that we'd follow that route if an acceptable deal wasn't forthcoming. Problem is, we don't appear to have prepared anywhere near adequately for no-deal and - perhaps partly as a consequence - we have a House of Commons which simply won't support that option (something which effectively takes no-deal off the table as a negotiating tool in my eyes).

The EU won't extend Article 50 just to give us more time to prepare for no-deal so, as I say, we either look for a deal along the lines of something like Norway Plus - which Michel Barnier has already indicated the EU would be receptive to - or we fold completely and remain.

I suppose another option might be no-deal but still with a transition period and I guess the EU might go for that given a chaotic no-deal wouldn't be good for them either. However, for that to happen our MP's would still have to be prepared to allow no-deal to proceed and that doesn't seem likely at the moment; I do accept it's the default legal position as it stands but everything I'm seeing suggests further legislation will be put through between now and the end of March to change that...

I do think the most likely outcome now is a Norway style arrangement. As a leave voter I'm not to happy about it but have said from the start the tactic of the politicians and media would be to turn project fear to eleven for 2 years. To ultimately be able to keep us a close to the EU as possible , This as happen and I'm not surprised.

I'm torn though about the eventual possible outcome of a Norway option especially if it retains freedom of movement. Yes the politicians and media elites would have got their way to a point. But I believe it will be a catalyst for proper political change in this country. It will put a wrecking Ball right through our polical system as we now see it.

Personally think that the politicians and media fighting to remain or at least stay as close to EU as possible are being incredibly short-sighted and will regret the day.
Having said that what we see happening today is the results of their decisions and choices from the past. And they don't seem to be very reflective and accepting of it. They are not the sort to hold their hands up and say "sorry we fked up"

[bobbo89]

crankedup said:

Apparently the U.K. will be suffering financial nightmares, according to the remainers gospel.
That being the case it’s hard to imagine anti EU punters lining up to buy semi posh german cars. It will be more financially focused purchases for many people. I am not an EU hater but I do have a deep mistrust of thier future direction of power building. Pleased to leave.

I'm not sure why anyone who is anti EU would necessarily be anti German, French or Spanish etc and why they would avoid purchasing goods from those countries. My issue is with the EU and not the individual countries that make up it's member states. Unless we leave with no deal and the EU act daft putting up barriers to trade with ridiculous tariffs the majority of people will continue spending their money where they always have.

[steve_k]

pgh said:

I didn't watch Question Time last night, however, seems the BBC put together a normal audience for once:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iwk3YMSoMI8

If the audience is representative or the feeling in the UK it's clearly not inline with what the media keep telling us. This should be a warning to any MP who is thinking of not honoring the result of the referendum.

[BOR]

Vanden Saab said:

My spending habits have changed too. IIRC last time this was discussed at least 7 or 8 people said theirs had changed too. You only have to multiply that by the number of people who actually post on this forum to realise that over the whole country it could make a big difference. Oh and it is not hatred. At the moment it is a way to show displeasure with the current situation and concentrate minds.

Two can play at that game. What goods or services do you or your employer produce ? Or your wife's employer, or your family, or the other people in your small village ?

[JagLover]

Not-The-Messiah said:

I do think the most likely outcome now is a Norway style arrangement. As a leave voter I'm not to happy about it but have said from the start the tactic of the politicians and media would be to turn project fear to eleven for 2 years. To ultimately be able to keep us a close to the EU as possible , This as happen and I'm not surprised.

I'm torn though about the eventual possible outcome of a Norway option especially if it retains freedom of movement. Yes the politicians and media elites would have got their way to a point. But I believe it will be a catalyst for proper political change in this country. It will put a wrecking Ball right through our polical system as we now see it.

Personally think that the politicians and media fighting to remain or at least stay as close to EU as possible are being incredibly short-sighted and will regret the day.
Having said that what we see happening today is the results of their decisions and choices from the past. And they don't seem to be very reflective and accepting of it. They are not the sort to hold their hands up and say "sorry we fked up"

Yes best to step back and view what is happening now as one domino amongst many. They will likely either reverse Brexit or Brino.

But what happens afterwards?

Long term trends before the Brexit vote will almost certainly continue afterwards. I.E diminishing share of exports going to EU (thus reducing true economic argument for status quo), continuing very high net migration, increasing net contributions from the UK?. All combined with a leave electorate increasingly disillusioned with both media and politicians.

The conditions for a radical departure and one made more likely by a "sell out" not less.

[johnxjsc1985]

just send Diane Abbott over there , she will within hours grind them into submission and they will just plead with us to take what we want but get her out.
If I had a time machine and I could go to March 28th I imagine we will still be negotiating