How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 7)

[PurpleMoonlight]

Anyone know what the minimum time frame is to pass legislation for a deal to be effective from 29th March (assuming parliament/EU can agree one)?

[chrispmartha]

BOR said:

Vanden Saab said:

My spending habits have changed too. IIRC last time this was discussed at least 7 or 8 people said theirs had changed too. You only have to multiply that by the number of people who actually post on this forum to realise that over the whole country it could make a big difference. Oh and it is not hatred. At the moment it is a way to show displeasure with the current situation and concentrate minds.

Two can play at that game. What goods or services do you or your employer produce ? Or your wife's employer, or your family, or the other people in your small village ?

And I'll bet he's quite happy to get medical supplies that come from Europe.

[Robertj21a]

johnxjsc1985 said:

just send Diane Abbott over there , she will within hours grind them into submission and they will just plead with us to take what we want but get her out.
If I had a time machine and I could go to March 28th I imagine we will still be negotiating

Yes, but she'll give them £390bn too...

[Digga]

PurpleMoonlight said:

Anyone know what the minimum time frame is to pass legislation for a deal to be effective from 29th March (assuming parliament/EU can agree one)?

Yanis Varoufakis has some very useful insights in regard to the process and to "running down the clock":

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-17/varoufak...

[Countdown]

Vanden Saab said:

My spending habits have changed too. IIRC last time this was discussed at least 7 or 8 people said theirs had changed too. You only have to multiply that by the number of people who actually post on this forum to realise that over the whole country it could make a big difference. Oh and it is not hatred. At the moment it is a way to show displeasure with the current situation and concentrate minds. If there is no Brexit I will be stepping up my protest to include companies who contributed to or spoke out strongly in favour of remain and will be encouraging others to do the same.

I may have misunderstood but that sounds a lot like “cutting off your nose to spite your face”.

[Digga]

Countdown said:

I may have misunderstood but that sounds a lot like “cutting off your nose to spite your face”.

Certainly runs counter to any sensible interpretation of the free market and opportunity cost I've seen.

I voted leave, but I'm no more against Europe, than I am against Germany, France (even though Macron's been exceedingly annoying), Italy, or any other EU nation. Except Luxembourg perhaps.

[anonymous-user]

JagLover said:

Not-The-Messiah said:

I do think the most likely outcome now is a Norway style arrangement. As a leave voter I'm not to happy about it but have said from the start the tactic of the politicians and media would be to turn project fear to eleven for 2 years. To ultimately be able to keep us a close to the EU as possible , This as happen and I'm not surprised.

I'm torn though about the eventual possible outcome of a Norway option especially if it retains freedom of movement. Yes the politicians and media elites would have got their way to a point. But I believe it will be a catalyst for proper political change in this country. It will put a wrecking Ball right through our polical system as we now see it.

Personally think that the politicians and media fighting to remain or at least stay as close to EU as possible are being incredibly short-sighted and will regret the day.
Having said that what we see happening today is the results of their decisions and choices from the past. And they don't seem to be very reflective and accepting of it. They are not the sort to hold their hands up and say "sorry we fked up"

Yes best to step back and view what is happening now as one domino amongst many. They will likely either reverse Brexit or Brino.

But what happens afterwards?

Long term trends before the Brexit vote will almost certainly continue afterwards. I.E diminishing share of exports going to EU (thus reducing true economic argument for status quo), continuing very high net migration, increasing net contributions from the UK?. All combined with a leave electorate increasingly disillusioned with both media and politicians.

The conditions for a radical departure and one made more likely by a "sell out" not less.

As Brexiteers do you regard Norway (or Norway+) as better or worse than May's deal. I have no feel for this, so genuine question.

[chrispmartha]

Countdown said:

Vanden Saab said:

My spending habits have changed too. IIRC last time this was discussed at least 7 or 8 people said theirs had changed too. You only have to multiply that by the number of people who actually post on this forum to realise that over the whole country it could make a big difference. Oh and it is not hatred. At the moment it is a way to show displeasure with the current situation and concentrate minds. If there is no Brexit I will be stepping up my protest to include companies who contributed to or spoke out strongly in favour of remain and will be encouraging others to do the same.

I may have misunderstood but that sounds a lot like “cutting off your nose to spite your face”.

Also, I missed his last point, why would he be encouraging people to do the same?

Who is he to say where people should spend their money, I would hope he gets told to fk off and mind his own business.

[Ron Maiden]

steve_k said:

pgh said:

I didn't watch Question Time last night, however, seems the BBC put together a normal audience for once:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iwk3YMSoMI8

If the audience is representative or the feeling in the UK it's clearly not inline with what the media keep telling us. This should be a warning to any MP who is thinking of not honoring the result of the referendum.

Couldn't agree more, Westminster is playing a very dangerous game, the word catastrophe is bandied about on regular
basis, but the biggest catastrophe of all will be reserved for those currently in power if they thwart the will of the people
and don't deliver what was voted for in the referendum...to leave the EU.

Ignoring the wishes of 17M + Voters will result in a monumental catastrophe for British Politics.

[Sway]

Greg66 said:

As Brexiteers do you regard Norway (or Norway+) as better or worse than May's deal. I have no feel for this, so genuine question.

Personally, Norway is preferable to May's deal - it does not preclude an independent trade policy, nor does it prevent our regaining of seats at global fora (which is where the EU takes it's rules from), and has an unilateral exit capability.

However, it does nothing specific for the goods borders so is insufficient for certain parties' "red lines"...

[Pan Pan Pan]

Ron Maiden said:

steve_k said:

pgh said:

I didn't watch Question Time last night, however, seems the BBC put together a normal audience for once:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iwk3YMSoMI8

If the audience is representative or the feeling in the UK it's clearly not inline with what the media keep telling us. This should be a warning to any MP who is thinking of not honoring the result of the referendum.

Couldn't agree more, Westminster is playing a very dangerous game, the word catastrophe is bandied about on regular
basis, but the biggest catastrophe of all will be reserved for those currently in power if they thwart the will of the people
and don't deliver what was voted for in the referendum...to leave the EU.

Ignoring the wishes of 17M + Voters will result in a monumental catastrophe for British Politics.

In other threads some have been saying that the UK has made itself a huge embarrassment in the eyes of the world over this matter. IMO the ones who have done that, were all those who did not respect the result of the first, only (and largest ever) democratic vote on the matter of the UK`s membership of the EU in UK political history.
Look they will say, even after such a vote, there are still those trying to ignore, over turn or subvert the democratic result. And they try to call what they are doing democracy? If the 2016 vote is ignored, why should any other vote ever held in the UK be respected?

[JNW1]

JagLover said:

Not-The-Messiah said:

I do think the most likely outcome now is a Norway style arrangement. As a leave voter I'm not to happy about it but have said from the start the tactic of the politicians and media would be to turn project fear to eleven for 2 years. To ultimately be able to keep us a close to the EU as possible , This as happen and I'm not surprised.

I'm torn though about the eventual possible outcome of a Norway option especially if it retains freedom of movement. Yes the politicians and media elites would have got their way to a point. But I believe it will be a catalyst for proper political change in this country. It will put a wrecking Ball right through our polical system as we now see it.

Personally think that the politicians and media fighting to remain or at least stay as close to EU as possible are being incredibly short-sighted and will regret the day.
Having said that what we see happening today is the results of their decisions and choices from the past. And they don't seem to be very reflective and accepting of it. They are not the sort to hold their hands up and say "sorry we fked up"

Yes best to step back and view what is happening now as one domino amongst many. They will likely either reverse Brexit or Brino.

But what happens afterwards?

Long term trends before the Brexit vote will almost certainly continue afterwards. I.E diminishing share of exports going to EU (thus reducing true economic argument for status quo), continuing very high net migration, increasing net contributions from the UK?. All combined with a leave electorate increasingly disillusioned with both media and politicians.

The conditions for a radical departure and one made more likely by a "sell out" not less.

Personally I'd see Norway Plus as acceptable (just) in terms respecting the 2016 referendum result but nothing is forever and it could end-up being an interim step prior us to us moving towards what would in today's terms be regarded as an orderly no-deal exit.

For example, if the EU tried to increase significantly the net contributions it wanted us to make - and basically make it much more expensive to be an affiliate member of their club - I think we'd be perfectly within our rights to say we no longer wish to be an affiliate on those terms and walk away. Nothing wrong in that if we do it in a planned, organised, manner and in the meantime perhaps we'll have secured some of those trade deals with other countries that would help make us less reliant on the EU anyway?

[Vaud]

Because a referendum is not a binding vote, it is an expression of opinion.

I don’t think it should be overturned but it is technically a different kind of vote.

[JagLover]

Greg66 said:

As Brexiteers do you regard Norway (or Norway+) as better or worse than May's deal. I have no feel for this, so genuine question.

Every option is better than May's deal due to the inescapable nature of the "backstop" in that deal.

I think the danger of adding a + to any proposed outcome is that the EU has been keen to avoid any bespoke solution to the UK's exit, such as they have granted other countries in the past such as Switzerland.

Switzerland has real controls over FOM that could work in a UK context and I think personally this could have been the sort of compromise that would have united enough of the population to move on. Sadly the EU will defend FOM to the end as they think it will deliver them a common demos.

Any other solution will continue to increase political tensions and mean that the argument will not be over.

[toppstuff]

Back during the Iraq war, Donald Rumsfeld said something which, at the time, attracted derision, but was actually a pretty wise view of complex issues:

There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don't know we don't know.

This sums up brexit. I genuinely believe that a significant number of people on both sides simply Do Not have the emotional intelligence to recognise that there are things they do not know they do not know. The future of a country is being decided this way.

[chrispmartha]

Pan Pan Pan said:

Ron Maiden said:

steve_k said:

pgh said:

I didn't watch Question Time last night, however, seems the BBC put together a normal audience for once:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iwk3YMSoMI8

If the audience is representative or the feeling in the UK it's clearly not inline with what the media keep telling us. This should be a warning to any MP who is thinking of not honoring the result of the referendum.

Couldn't agree more, Westminster is playing a very dangerous game, the word catastrophe is bandied about on regular
basis, but the biggest catastrophe of all will be reserved for those currently in power if they thwart the will of the people
and don't deliver what was voted for in the referendum...to leave the EU.

Ignoring the wishes of 17M + Voters will result in a monumental catastrophe for British Politics.

In other threads some have been saying that the UK has made itself a huge embarrassment in the eyes of the world over this matter. IMO the ones who have done that, were all those who did not respect the result of the first, only (and largest ever) democratic vote on the matter of the UK`s membership of the EU in UK political history.
Look they will say, even after such a vote, there are still those trying to ignore, over turn or subvert the democratic result. And they try to call what they are doing democracy? If the 2016 vote is ignored, why should any other vote ever held in the UK be respected?

So you agree the UK has embarrassed itself?

[The Dangerous Elk]

Vaud said:

Because a referendum is not a binding vote, it is an expression of opinion.

I don’t think it should be overturned but it is technically a different kind of vote.

And it is EXACTLY that method of excusing the MP's actions (most) that will cause the real long term disaster.
"The Voter" does not care about such clever games. A direction was give on the strength of a promise made and posted into every voters letter box, "the common man" will see it as a massive broken promise with the danger of our system throwing up ever more radical reactions.

[Pan Pan Pan]

Vaud said:

Because a referendum is not a binding vote, it is an expression of opinion.

I don’t think it should be overturned but it is technically a different kind of vote.

If referenda do not represent a binding vote, why was the result of the 1975 referendum to remain in the EEC enacted upon? Is it a case of some referenda are not binding, but others are?
We either respect the result of ALL democratic votes held in the country, (not selectively choose which ones we will adhere to, and which we will not) or we don't have a voting system at all.

[JNW1]

Greg66 said:

As Brexiteers do you regard Norway (or Norway+) as better or worse than May's deal. I have no feel for this, so genuine question.

Personally I regard Norway Plus as better than May's deal; the only red line it crosses is Freedom of Movement but that wasn't one of my main motives for voting Leave and has in any event been overblown IMO (and therefore crossing that particular line has little consequence to me although I know others feel differently).

The other point is May's deal is dead in terms of getting approval in the House of Commons and would need so much tweaking to get it through that it would no longer be May's deal. In contrast, I suspect something like Norway Plus might get the support of soft-Brexiters and at least some Remainers and hence might just have a chance of getting through (and in the eyes of many that would respect the 2016 referendum result even though it wouldn't satisfy hard-Brexiters).

With no-deal effectively off the table if something like Norway Plus doesn't get approved we're probably looking at remaining in the EU and as a Leave voter I'd regard that as the least satisfactory outcome of all.

[Guvernator]

Surely we aren't the only country who has high net FOM. Do they not have the same issues in Germany and France for instance? How do they handle getting the balance right? Is it just our distorted UK viewpoint that makes it seem like it's a bigger issue here then anywhere else.