How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 7)

[MDMetal]

Balmoral said:

Guvernator said:

MDMetal said:

Indeed, the fact that people would suddenly stop coming is laughable. I'd wager that a lot of EU people leaving are doing so because their home countries are for the most part much better than when they left. Poland for example is a fantastic place. I can well understand many Poles wanting to return home as things start to look up. Is some of it really Brexit? maybe but surely only a tiny part.

The thought that people in the EU would only move/work somewhere in the EU is crazy, they'll be suggesting nobody from the EU ever moves to north america/Australasia next!

A lot of people are also leaving because England isn't the easy ride it once was and our public services are getting worse. I've heard a lot of complaints from my European friends about the NHS for example.

Some have also made enough money here that they can go back home and live comfortably or even buy a property etc. Financial reasons are the main incentive for being here for many and when that is gone, why would they stay?

A short term contract I've had over the last couple of years has put me in contact with dozens of Poles on a daily basis. They're settled here, own homes, kids in school, status here no issue despite the bs, they're not going anywhere and generally their only concerns over brexit are the same ones as everyone else. Politics wise they'd be tory leavers in the main.

Wasn't picking on anyone in particular just recalling an article from awhile back saying how much Poland had changed since entrance to the EU, for many that's reason to return home but also many have settled here and see it as home. I'd bet the majority of people either move somewhere and settle or return home. I doubt very many move around the EU for a long period of time, everyone likes stability and knowing their environment. Most people don't go through many big moves in their lives.

[SpeckledJim]

Can anyone wheel out an expert who can explain why employment booms when a depression with a known start date looms?

Sounds like a Nobel-winning piece of research, so surely someone's hard at it?

[Sway]

toppstuff said:

Sway said:

toppstuff said:

She delivered brexit. Her deal means we leave. You got what you wanted. Just because it’s not the right flavour isn’t her problem, it’s yours.

Your wishes as expressed in the referendum are fulfilled. Job done.

If you don’t like the flavour of brexit you should have made it clear what flavour you wanted. So we will probably have to ask again, if you want strawberry , vanilla or pickled onion flavoured brexit.

Not according to the manifesto she stood under...

I seem to recall talk of trade deals and protecting jobs / unique and bold trading relationship stuff as well.

Seeking of.

The absolutes in the manifesto were to leave the Single Market and Customs Union.

[SeeFive]

toppstuff said:

Sway said:

toppstuff said:

She delivered brexit. Her deal means we leave. You got what you wanted. Just because it’s not the right flavour isn’t her problem, it’s yours.

Your wishes as expressed in the referendum are fulfilled. Job done.

If you don’t like the flavour of brexit you should have made it clear what flavour you wanted. So we will probably have to ask again, if you want strawberry , vanilla or pickled onion flavoured brexit.

Not according to the manifesto she stood under...

I seem to recall talk of trade deals and protecting jobs / unique and bold trading relationship stuff as well.

IIRC, we are forbidden by the EU to do any trade deals at present.

Having said that, there are reports of some preliminary preparation stuff going on.

https://www.sbs.com.au/news/uk-signs-post-brexit-d...

I guess we won’t hear of anything between us and the other 27 EU countries as they are not allowed to either and it is probably not in their interests to upset the EU.

[Digga]

MDMetal said:

Balmoral said:

Guvernator said:

MDMetal said:

Indeed, the fact that people would suddenly stop coming is laughable. I'd wager that a lot of EU people leaving are doing so because their home countries are for the most part much better than when they left. Poland for example is a fantastic place. I can well understand many Poles wanting to return home as things start to look up. Is some of it really Brexit? maybe but surely only a tiny part.

The thought that people in the EU would only move/work somewhere in the EU is crazy, they'll be suggesting nobody from the EU ever moves to north america/Australasia next!

A lot of people are also leaving because England isn't the easy ride it once was and our public services are getting worse. I've heard a lot of complaints from my European friends about the NHS for example.

Some have also made enough money here that they can go back home and live comfortably or even buy a property etc. Financial reasons are the main incentive for being here for many and when that is gone, why would they stay?

A short term contract I've had over the last couple of years has put me in contact with dozens of Poles on a daily basis. They're settled here, own homes, kids in school, status here no issue despite the bs, they're not going anywhere and generally their only concerns over brexit are the same ones as everyone else. Politics wise they'd be tory leavers in the main.

Wasn't picking on anyone in particular just recalling an article from awhile back saying how much Poland had changed since entrance to the EU, for many that's reason to return home but also many have settled here and see it as home. I'd bet the majority of people either move somewhere and settle or return home. I doubt very many move around the EU for a long period of time, everyone likes stability and knowing their environment. Most people don't go through many big moves in their lives.

I think that, as with any community, the Polish community in the UK has a great many different facets; some are here on an opportunistic basis - wage arbitrage - with a view to perhaps moving home, and certainly the economy and outlook in Poland is very much on the up IMHO.

However, huge numbers came here to settle. In the town nearest to me, Stafford, we've had a settled Polish community since WW2. At the time, they came to the UK for very obvious, understandable reasons. Their social club, the White Eagle has grown with the population and is now the main club in the town for use as a venue for events like weddings and sports club award ceremonies. The club and the wider Polish community is integral to the town - there is no way they are 'going home'.

[bitchstewie]

Digga said:

bhstewie said:

Robertj21a said:

Good to read in The Times today that the IMF thinks Britain will grow at least as fast as its biggest Eurozone neighbours over the next two years.

Presumably, the Remainers will put that down to Fake News.

Why would I do that? It's good news if it happens.

They also think a no-deal Brexit and the China slowdown are the biggest risks to global growth, so it's not an entirely rosy picture is it?

I disagree, but only very slightly; I'd add to those concerns, the yellow vest protests and rising anti-EU sentiment in Europe. I think this is more significant than many realise and part of a wider discontent with inequality.

Perhaps, but I'm struggling how the IMF can be listened to when they predict decent growth but it's Project Fear when they say a no-deal is an economic risk.

Seems a little bit cake and eat it.

[Digga]

bhstewie said:

Digga said:

bhstewie said:

Robertj21a said:

Good to read in The Times today that the IMF thinks Britain will grow at least as fast as its biggest Eurozone neighbours over the next two years.

Presumably, the Remainers will put that down to Fake News.

Why would I do that? It's good news if it happens.

They also think a no-deal Brexit and the China slowdown are the biggest risks to global growth, so it's not an entirely rosy picture is it?

I disagree, but only very slightly; I'd add to those concerns, the yellow vest protests and rising anti-EU sentiment in Europe. I think this is more significant than many realise and part of a wider discontent with inequality.

Perhaps, but I'm struggling how the IMF can be listened to when they predict decent growth but it's Project Fear when they say a no-deal is an economic risk.

Seems a little bit cake and eat it.

They just happen to be right; look at all the current data from UK, Italy, France and Germany and it's crashingly obvious.

[amusingduck]

bhstewie said:

Digga said:

bhstewie said:

Robertj21a said:

Good to read in The Times today that the IMF thinks Britain will grow at least as fast as its biggest Eurozone neighbours over the next two years.

Presumably, the Remainers will put that down to Fake News.

Why would I do that? It's good news if it happens.

They also think a no-deal Brexit and the China slowdown are the biggest risks to global growth, so it's not an entirely rosy picture is it?

I disagree, but only very slightly; I'd add to those concerns, the yellow vest protests and rising anti-EU sentiment in Europe. I think this is more significant than many realise and part of a wider discontent with inequality.

Perhaps, but I'm struggling how the IMF can be listened to when they predict decent growth but it's Project Fear when they say a no-deal is an economic risk.

Seems a little bit cake and eat it.

It is, but it's far from the worst example of that sorta thing on here. Not accusing you, of course.

See: stickers on a whiteboard as justification for second referendum growing support
See also: radio silence about recent sky poll

[otis criblecoblis]

bhstewie said:

Perhaps, but I'm struggling how the IMF can be listened to when they predict decent growth but it's Project Fear when they say a no-deal is an economic risk.

Seems a little bit cake and eat it.

Might just be poking fun and all those Remainers who repeated any bad forecast as gospel. See also job loss predictions versus today's news.
So when Christine Lagarde said she'd seen credible evidence of a 9.5% gdp loss, seems she may have been off by a tad ?
Basically, if your campaign to remain in the EU has no actual positive case to do , but relies on trying the scare the pants off everyone and massive emphasis on dodgy economic forecasts, it might come back to bite you.

[Blackpuddin]

Lagarde has zero credibility.

[SpeckledJim]

bhstewie said:

Digga said:

bhstewie said:

Robertj21a said:

Good to read in The Times today that the IMF thinks Britain will grow at least as fast as its biggest Eurozone neighbours over the next two years.

Presumably, the Remainers will put that down to Fake News.

Why would I do that? It's good news if it happens.

They also think a no-deal Brexit and the China slowdown are the biggest risks to global growth, so it's not an entirely rosy picture is it?

I disagree, but only very slightly; I'd add to those concerns, the yellow vest protests and rising anti-EU sentiment in Europe. I think this is more significant than many realise and part of a wider discontent with inequality.

Perhaps, but I'm struggling how the IMF can be listened to when they predict decent growth but it's Project Fear when they say a no-deal is an economic risk.

Seems a little bit cake and eat it.

I wouldn't listen to either good or bad predictions from them. They're hopeless. Like, toss-a-coin level hopeless.

[Troubleatmill]

Blackpuddin said:

Lagarde has zero credibility.

watching her on air "apology" for getting this so utterly wrong a few years back was hysterical.

[bitchstewie]

I suspect the truth will end up somewhere in the middle.

I wouldn't take all the worst case scenarios as gospel, nor would I write anything negative off as "Project Fear".

There is a plenty of time for a lot of chlorinated chickens to come home to roost on both sides yet.

[Gecko1978]

we have not left yet so post a bad or no deal we may see a fall in growth. But we might not too, even no deal is not going to see us turn into a 3td world state worst case what like one of the PIGS

[SpeckledJim]

bhstewie said:

I suspect the truth will end up somewhere in the middle.

I wouldn't take all the worst case scenarios as gospel, nor would I write anything negative off as "Project Fear".

There is a plenty of time for a lot of chlorinated chickens to come home to roost on both sides yet.

What about Osborne's mixed basket of doom? Surely you can now safely write that off as Project Fear?

You don't still think they were honest predictions, do you? What about the emergency budget?

[bitchstewie]

SpeckledJim said:

What about Osborne's mixed basket of doom? Surely you can now safely write that off as Project Fear?

You don't still think they were honest predictions, do you? What about the emergency budget?

It was Project Fear and with hindsight were dishonest, I think that's universally acknowledged, but hindsight is a wonderful thing.

It worries me that there's a tendency to take anything negative now and immediately decry it as "Project Fear, remember Osborne!!" regardless of source.

You see it with the IMF stuff, "Brilliant news, the economies growing" followed by "No-deal will cause issues, you can't listen to the IMF".

It may be fine, I hope it is, but equally we know how the Boy who Cried Wolf ended.

[amusingduck]

bhstewie said:

I suspect the truth will end up somewhere in the middle.

I wouldn't take all the worst case scenarios as gospel, nor would I write anything negative off as "Project Fear".

There is a plenty of time for a lot of chlorinated chickens to come home to roost on both sides yet.

That's the middle ground fallacy, isn't it?

e.g. if one person says the sky is blue and the other yellow, the middle ground fallacy is to conclude that the sky is green.

The most pessimistic remain predictions are more pessimistic than the optimistic leave predictions are optimistic, I would say.

[bitchstewie]

amusingduck said:

That's the middle ground fallacy, isn't it?

e.g. if one person says the sky is blue and the other yellow, the middle ground fallacy is to conclude that the sky is green.

The most pessimistic remain predictions are more pessimistic than the optimistic leave predictions are optimistic, I would say.

Perhaps I should have said "We're all guessing" as it's probably closer.

[plasticpig]

amusingduck said:

That's the middle ground fallacy, isn't it?

e.g. if one person says the sky is blue and the other yellow, the middle ground fallacy is to conclude that the sky is green.

The most pessimistic remain predictions are more pessimistic than the optimistic leave predictions are optimistic, I would say.

If you believe all of the most pessimistic predictions you won't be disappointed.

[Digga]

bhstewie said:

amusingduck said:

That's the middle ground fallacy, isn't it?

e.g. if one person says the sky is blue and the other yellow, the middle ground fallacy is to conclude that the sky is green.

The most pessimistic remain predictions are more pessimistic than the optimistic leave predictions are optimistic, I would say.

Perhaps I should have said "We're all guessing" as it's probably closer.

It's not really a guess, more a fairly reasonable projection: