How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 7)

[gooner1]

Labour has dumped "people's vote" amendment.

[amusingduck]

Mrr T said:

MDMetal said:

Fittster said:

MDMetal said:

Does anyone who voted leave seriously think the day after we leave it'll be milk and honey?

Why wouldn't they? They politicians supporting leave didn't say things would get worse after leaving.

because contrary to how people are treated by their elected representatives most of them actually have brains and are aware of highs and lows and the difference between long and short term.

Unless you have spoken to all leave voters you have no idea of what they thought. As it is the Leave campaign was clear this would be the easiest deal ever, it would be done in an afternoon over tea (and maybe cake), they need us more than we need them. Based on this I would suggest most leave voters expected leaving to have no negative economic effect. If leave had campaigned on a clear platform that the likeliest brexit exit was without an withdrawal agreement and every one should expect to be worst off and won. Then you would have a point. Then again I do not think leave would have won with that strategy.

Hilarious that you start off with "Unless you have spoken to all leave voters you have no idea of what they thought." But YOU can say what most of them expected, naturally.

You know what they expected, because "the Leave campaign was clear this would be the easiest deal ever".

What Liam Fox Actually Said said:

If you think about it, the free trade agreement that we will have to come to with the European Union should be one of the easiest in human history. We're already beginning with zero tarrifs, and we're already beginning at the point of maximum regulatory equivalence, as its called. In other words our rules and laws are exactly the same. The only reason that we wouldn't come to a free and open agreement is because politics gets in the way of economics.

Oh dear. It's not what you've claimed at all. How silly you look

[JagLover]

A further detailed analysis of the "Cooper amendment"

https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/01/...

[Digga]

gooner1 said:

Labour has dumped "people's vote" amendment.

About the most rational thing they've done in ages, other than to vote down May's bullst deal of course.

[MDMetal]

gooner1 said:

Mrr T said:

MDMetal said:

Fittster said:

MDMetal said:

Does anyone who voted leave seriously think the day after we leave it'll be milk and honey?

Why wouldn't they? They politicians supporting leave didn't say things would get worse after leaving.

because contrary to how people are treated by their elected representatives most of them actually have brains and are aware of highs and lows and the difference between long and short term.

Unless you have spoken to all leave voters you have no idea of what they thought. As it is the Leave campaign was clear this would be the easiest deal ever, it would be done in an afternoon over tea (and maybe cake), they need us more than we need them. Based on this I would suggest most leave voters expected leaving to have no negative economic effect. If leave had campaigned on a clear platform that the likeliest brexit exit was without an withdrawal agreement and every one should expect to be worst off and won. Then you would have a point. Then again I do not think leave would have won with that strategy.

Should be were the words used, not would be.
But you already knew that.
As for most leave voters not expecting no negative economic effect , you are just fooling
yourself with statements like that.

Following your premise of a clear campaign platform, I wonder how many more leave vote
would have been cast were it not for the incessant Project Fear media assault?

100% what's basically being said here is nobody knew what they were voting for so it was attractive to anyone who could fill the blanks however they fancied. On the flip side of course that also means that people were happy to bet that being out was better than staying in even without a clear plan. Imagine the leave % if there was a clear exit plan with a list of steps/goals/directions, I mean nobody would be arguing it wasn't a decisive vote in that case...

[dasigty]

crankedup said:

I have to reply to this comment, of course the U.K. is not leaving Europe, I think we all understand that much. My point is simple enough, look back at WW2 and the rise of political power in Germany of the Nazi Party under Hitlers directives. How he used dissatisfaction of the electrorate with the established politics.
I’m not saying Europe is heading for another war, but I am suggesting that mainstream politics
across Europe are being tested. We witness the rise of Far Right activists within Europe, political lessons need to be learnt from previous experiences. Saying we have moved on is akin to burying the head in the sand imo, plenty of political madmen are prising open the door
in an effort to take advantage of current dissatisfaction amongst populations.

The usual misconception of Adolf being of the right, he was of the left, thats why you will find little if any difference between the Nazi & communist parties.

We HAVE seen a huge swing away from the left and its antics, but what is being branded "Far right" are for the most part in support of the rights of the individual, its the people saying no to larger governments following its own political agenda rather than acting for the betterment of the country.

[ATG]

Tuna said:

bhstewie said:

There seems to be a slew of prominent Leave supporters who are saying one thing and doing another - do you ever wonder why?

Trading and working in the global market is *exactly* what most of the Brexit proponents have been calling for throughout this whole ridiculous exercise.

It's getting a bit hard to tell who the 'Little Englanders' are, when Remainers are strangely insistent that people should only conduct their affairs within the UK. And the overblown claims that Leave supporters are somehow 'not supporting Britain' by actually wanting to do business with the wide world are stunning hypocrisy from the people who are apparently so keen on FoM, international investment and all that. Does it not occur to you that both sides actually have visions of working on the global stage, albeit with different political infrastructure behind them?

EU membership doesn't hinder you from trading internationally. See Germany's trade with China in manufactured goods as an example. The idea that British companies are currently impeded from trading with the rest of the world because of EU membership would be daft. They idea that they are currently fixated on europe and need their eyes opening is bonkers. The idea that our economic position will be improved by intentionally making trade more difficult with a large chunk of the world's developed economies is lunacy.

[Piha]

I find it utterly beyond parody that even Union leaders are telling a tory PM to stop dicking about and start thinking about business and jobs. Well said Frances, well said indeed.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46981834

[Piha]

gooner1 said:

Labour has dumped "people's vote" amendment.

SAUCE?

[Digga]

ATG said:

EU membership doesn't hinder you from trading internationally.

They aren't stopped, but they are hindered to the extend that the UK can only deal with anywhere in the RoW under trade deals negotiated by the EU.

[Dr Jekyll]

ATG said:

EU membership doesn't hinder you from trading internationally.

So what is the purpose of EU import tariffs?

[Troubleatmill]

steve_k said:

bhstewie said:

@jsf do you know more about running Airbus than the Chief Executive of Airbus?

How utterly bizarre.

Some here think they know more about Dyson than James Dyson or is that somehow different?

Airbus needed a £340 Milllion UK Government bailout in 2009.
So... The Chief Executive at the time - might have been doing a rather piss poor job?

[Piha]

Dr Jekyll said:

So what is the purpose of EU import tariffs?

Probably the same purpose as WTO import tariffs?

[citizensm1th]

Piha said:

gooner1 said:

Labour has dumped "people's vote" amendment.

SAUCE?

Brown tomato is just wrong

[Dr Jekyll]

Piha said:

Dr Jekyll said:

So what is the purpose of EU import tariffs?

Probably the same purpose as WTO import tariffs?

The WTO doesn't charge import tariffs, it sets maximum permissible tariffs for others to charge.

[toppstuff]

crankedup said:

I have to reply to this comment, of course the U.K. is not leaving Europe, I think we all understand that much. My point is simple enough, look back at WW2 and the rise of political power in Germany of the Nazi Party under Hitlers directives. How he used dissatisfaction of the electrorate with the established politics.
I’m not saying Europe is heading for another war, but I am suggesting that mainstream politics
across Europe are being tested. We witness the rise of Far Right activists within Europe, political lessons need to be learnt from previous experiences. Saying we have moved on is akin to burying the head in the sand imo, plenty of political madmen are prising open the door
in an effort to take advantage of current dissatisfaction amongst populations.

You assert that powerful people have historically achieved things by using the dissatisfaction of the population. I think I can also add that another component of this has been to create something for people to be rallied against - a bogeyman or group of people; something to focus the anger of the dissatisfied.

You do realise that as a brexiter, you a participant in exactly the same process ?

You don’t see it now but it’s pretty clear to the rest of the world that there is a nexus that links populism with brexit with trump with MAGA with trade wars and with increased anger. I refuse to be a part of that nexus. How about you ?

[gooner1]

Piha said:

SAUCE?

Not for me, thanks.

[chrispmartha]

Digga said:

ATG said:

EU membership doesn't hinder you from trading internationally.

They aren't stopped, but they are hindered to the extend that the UK can only deal with anywhere in the RoW under trade deals negotiated by the EU.

Take Dyson then (who wanted us to join the euro by the way) them being ‘hindered’ by being in the EU hasn’t stopped them achieving massive global success and building a multi billion dollar company, flip it round you could say the fact that they have been able to take advantage of those deals has infact ‘helped’ not himdered them?

[bodhi]

Piha said:

I find it utterly beyond parody that even Union leaders are telling a tory PM to stop dicking about and start thinking about business and jobs. Well said Frances, well said indeed.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46981834

I find it beyond parody that a trade union can't see the problem with taking "No Deal" off the table. Imagine they were negotiating for better pay/conditions, and took strike action off the table.

How successful would they be then?

[ATG]

amusingduck said:

You know what they expected, because "the Leave campaign was clear this would be the easiest deal ever".

What Liam Fox Actually Said said:

If you think about it, the free trade agreement that we will have to come to with the European Union should be one of the easiest in human history. We're already beginning with zero tarrifs, and we're already beginning at the point of maximum regulatory equivalence, as its called. In other words our rules and laws are exactly the same. The only reason that we wouldn't come to a free and open agreement is because politics gets in the way of economics.

Oh dear. It's not what you've claimed at all. How silly you look

Fox is such a plum. Like Leadsom, you have to wonder if he's a fair bit thicker than most of his colleagues. He really didn't seem to grasp that the challenge is to agree how to KEEP the "rules and laws" aligned IN THE FUTURE and enforced consistently after you've removed yourself from the mechanisms that currently do all of that. It's like saying "it'll be easy to keep flying once I jump out of this plane because I'm currently in the plane and it's flying!".