Europe heading into recession
Discussion
Agammemnon said:
My point being that there seems to be little advantage in buying the bond compared to other ways of keeping the money. Personally I'd put it into gold or similar but there seem to be lots of alternatives.
however, your pension fund, an investment bank, any investment institution have a risk register which shows what they're exposed to. German Bonds sit in the "low" risk part of the matrix.
stuckmojo said:
the bonds are traded, so the "sell" value could be nominally higher than the issue value.
Optimistic but I see your point.stuckmojo said:
Note, I am not from the industry so I don't use the lingo.
Obviously neither am I but it's interesting to hear the professionals' insights.Digga said:
Don't forget, there is a cost for holding/storing physical gold.
Also, bank deposits are guaranteed only up to a limit.
I'm thinking from a relatively small-time perspective rather than that of the big corporates or financial institutions. Also, bank deposits are guaranteed only up to a limit.
As part of future plans & not wanting to have all the eggs in one basket I looked at places to park money, including bonds. From what I can see a lot of bonds aren't worth it for the smaller investor as there are better other options. For my needs about 10% in gold seems reasonable; I'm still looking for what to do with the rest bearing in mind the thread topic.
Edited by Agammemnon on Thursday 22 August 11:42
Agammemnon said:
I'm thinking from a relatively small-time perspective rather than that of the big corporates or financial institutions.
As part of future plans & not wanting to have all the eggs in one basket I looked at places to park money, including bonds. From what I can see a lot of bonds aren't worth it for the smaller investor as there are better other options. For my needs about 10% in gold seems reasonable; I'm still looking for what to do with the rest bearing in mind the thread topic.
Well, PMI data from Germany is again very pessimistic for manufacturing. It's definetly pointing towards a protracted down turn. You do want to be looking at this type of info when making investment decisions. Also look below the headline. We discussed pubs on here previously. Yep, we all know pubs are in decline - but is the value in the beer or the freehold land? Viewed from that perspective Greene King, Whitbread look like better value. Do you think McDonals is in tbe burger business or land business?As part of future plans & not wanting to have all the eggs in one basket I looked at places to park money, including bonds. From what I can see a lot of bonds aren't worth it for the smaller investor as there are better other options. For my needs about 10% in gold seems reasonable; I'm still looking for what to do with the rest bearing in mind the thread topic.
Edited by Agammemnon on Thursday 22 August 11:42
Anyhoo, more specifically on Europe and yet more monetary madness - the banks are starting to come out and talk about passing negative rates onto the masses. We are at the point where either the masses eat the negative rates OR the ECB does with Tiering. Imagine explaing prudence to todays kids when you have to pay to give your money to the bank. Makes that new i-phone look even more attractive.
Jackson Hole this week, could be interesting what comes out of it. Will probabaly get a gauge for how the Central Bankers see the world going forward - although Trump will be tearing up the G7 with mad tweets so something might get missed.
stongle said:
Imagine explaing prudence to todays kids when you have to pay to give your money to the bank. Makes that new i-phone look even more attractive.
Makes the big mattress attractive too.Thank you- as I said, I find the professionals' perspective interesting as it's a completely different aspect from my own that helps see the larger picture.
Digga said:
2 days too late: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49400232
I know, but its illustattive of the point that despite what we think locally of pubs - the value is elsewhere. If you were an offshore investor you've bought a very cheap property portfolio (especially with a depressed pound). skwdenyer said:
Agammemnon said:
markcoznottz said:
all the retards who overleveraged buying btls................have been subsidised until thier mortgages have been cleared. No thanks for anyone who was prudent, you can have zero interest in your savings.
Surely successfully predicting future returns & investing in them with the benefit of leverage could be described as prudent? Arguably more so than effectively stuffing the mattress with banknotes.For a whole generation of Brits, you don’t make money off of good ideas and building businesses; you leverage to the hilt and trust the government to make sure house prices continue to rise.
It’s *incredibly* hard to make as much money in business as it has been to wallow in asset value increases. Yet all those landlords think they’re “shrewd negotiators” (to borrow a phrase).
It *must* be made more profitable to employ people and build a business than simply to get a mortgage. If it isn’t, we have only ourselves to blame.
t we are still in, qe, funding for lending, zirp, helicopter (ppi). amusingduck said:
skwdenyer said:
my local corner shop has 2 card machines, one for daytime and one for evening...
What's the point of that?ETA: any card transactions are always voided on the till regardless. When challenged, it is "so the till balances for cash, and the cards are separate." Note that, by not bothering to register for VAT (and not having to worry about separate VAT rates...) they can almost claim this is reasonable. So the "night" card takings are basically invisible.
skwdenyer said:
I know they’ve been reported to HMRC many times over the years, but nothing ever happens...
HMRC are doing something about it, very, very slowly but they are actually moving.I'm amazed anyone gets reported though, the form for it is so bloody long the only time I've seen someone taking the piss so much that I bothered to find it I gave up half way through.
zombeh said:
skwdenyer said:
I know they’ve been reported to HMRC many times over the years, but nothing ever happens...
HMRC are doing something about it, very, very slowly but they are actually moving.I'm amazed anyone gets reported though, the form for it is so bloody long the only time I've seen someone taking the piss so much that I bothered to find it I gave up half way through.
It's like that joke about a the two bulls in a field, one young the other older and wiser. The young bull spots some cows and says "I'm going to run down there and mount one of those cows". The old guy replies, "I'm going to walk down and do them all".
If, when the HMRC finally arrive, they are very smart. We had an 18 month full investigation, conveniently timed right in the middle of the GFC. They found we owed...
... £300. This because we'd bought a second hand container ramp from a firm we regularly deal trade goods with and overlooked the invoice - it should have been capital not revenue.
However, if there was something, anything, they'd have found it. We have also been asked to provide various information, on several occasions, for firms we deal with who are being investigated. My advice to anyone who thinks they can fiddle the tax man, is over what timeline? Give them long enough and they'll get you and, certainly once they start to investigate you, it is all over.
skwdenyer said:
amusingduck said:
skwdenyer said:
my local corner shop has 2 card machines, one for daytime and one for evening...
What's the point of that?ETA: any card transactions are always voided on the till regardless. When challenged, it is "so the till balances for cash, and the cards are separate." Note that, by not bothering to register for VAT (and not having to worry about separate VAT rates...) they can almost claim this is reasonable. So the "night" card takings are basically invisible.
amusingduck said:
skwdenyer said:
amusingduck said:
skwdenyer said:
my local corner shop has 2 card machines, one for daytime and one for evening...
What's the point of that?ETA: any card transactions are always voided on the till regardless. When challenged, it is "so the till balances for cash, and the cards are separate." Note that, by not bothering to register for VAT (and not having to worry about separate VAT rates...) they can almost claim this is reasonable. So the "night" card takings are basically invisible.
skwdenyer said:
YankeePorker said:
Agammemnon said:
Surely successfully predicting future returns & investing in them with the benefit of leverage could be described as prudent? Arguably more so than effectively stuffing the mattress with banknotes.
Banknotes? That’s another of their wet dreams, do away with cash so the option of withdrawing your funds from the bank when interest rates go negative no longer exists. Also stamps completely on the black economy that allows tax to be dodged. And they can save money not having to mint coins that cost more than their nominal value.That’s one of the reasons that I make a point of using cash as much as possible, just trying to keep it alive!
Its almost certain that negative rates are coming on bank deposits. They already exist in Denmark on HNWI, and in Switzerland; anyone with 500k is paying 0.6% to depot their cash. Anyone with a pension fund is also indirectly supporting negative rates - the $16.5trillion of <0 yield debt haws to go somewhere.
We've run into a system where Monetary Policy and tighter financial regulation (resiliance and less fraud etc), and paradoxical and working against each other. Maybe the Greeks did have it right with their barter based economy (outside Athens), they should just never have (been allowed) joined the Euro.
I kinda wanted to start this thread but without 'Europe' in the title, i'd previously been told by a number of (reasonably well placed) people the next 'global' recession was due to start in the US.
That said, keeping it on topic: Is there anywhere to easily compare (a large list) all European nations and their past ~4 quarters GDP performance?
That said, keeping it on topic: Is there anywhere to easily compare (a large list) all European nations and their past ~4 quarters GDP performance?
jimmybell said:
I kinda wanted to start this thread but without 'Europe' in the title, i'd previously been told by a number of (reasonably well placed) people the next 'global' recession was due to start in the US.
That said, keeping it on topic: Is there anywhere to easily compare (a large list) all European nations and their past ~4 quarters GDP performance?
Try the IMF, and have a trawl through there data. You might have to piece it together. Its a nice day, take your laptop to the pub.That said, keeping it on topic: Is there anywhere to easily compare (a large list) all European nations and their past ~4 quarters GDP performance?
This linky might help:
https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2019/01/w...
Edited by stongle on Friday 23 August 12:46
stongle said:
jimmybell said:
I kinda wanted to start this thread but without 'Europe' in the title, i'd previously been told by a number of (reasonably well placed) people the next 'global' recession was due to start in the US.
That said, keeping it on topic: Is there anywhere to easily compare (a large list) all European nations and their past ~4 quarters GDP performance?
Try the IMF, and have a trawl through there data. You might have to piece it together. Its a nice day, take your laptop to the pub.That said, keeping it on topic: Is there anywhere to easily compare (a large list) all European nations and their past ~4 quarters GDP performance?
This linky might help:
https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2019/01/w...
Edited by stongle on Friday 23 August 12:46
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