Europe heading into recession
Discussion
Ireland managed 8.2% for 2018 and and 2.4% for Q1 2019 - up 6.3% compared with Q1 2018.
Things are booming down there honestly. I was on a course in Dublin at the beginning of the week and it's like the Celtic Tiger all over again only they've managed to really birth a strong and healthy IT services industry. Corp tax rate is obviously the driver but they're actually building something of substance this time instead of the property bubble that led the way at the turn of the millenium.
Things are booming down there honestly. I was on a course in Dublin at the beginning of the week and it's like the Celtic Tiger all over again only they've managed to really birth a strong and healthy IT services industry. Corp tax rate is obviously the driver but they're actually building something of substance this time instead of the property bubble that led the way at the turn of the millenium.
stongle said:
Digga said:
FWIW, I think only Spain has been an outlier within the EU, performing well in recent quarters.
You mean Eurozone. In the "EU", its Bulgaria, Romania and other Eastern European's with the highest GDP growth.[quote=stongle]
No one is banning cash. Ever. In fact, the number of $100 bills in circulation passed $1 bills in 2018 or the first time. Most of these are being held outside the US.
/quote]
Quite. Not only that but new forms of cash are being created (crypto), and Italy seems to be looking hard at miniBOTs.(sp?)
No one is banning cash. Ever. In fact, the number of $100 bills in circulation passed $1 bills in 2018 or the first time. Most of these are being held outside the US.
/quote]
Quite. Not only that but new forms of cash are being created (crypto), and Italy seems to be looking hard at miniBOTs.(sp?)
Art0ir said:
Ireland managed 8.2% for 2018 and and 2.4% for Q1 2019 - up 6.3% compared with Q1 2018.
Things are booming down there honestly. I was on a course in Dublin at the beginning of the week and it's like the Celtic Tiger all over again only they've managed to really birth a strong and healthy IT services industry. Corp tax rate is obviously the driver but they're actually building something of substance this time instead of the property bubble that led the way at the turn of the millenium.
Don't see those GDP numbers: Irelands GDP (per BBG data)Things are booming down there honestly. I was on a course in Dublin at the beginning of the week and it's like the Celtic Tiger all over again only they've managed to really birth a strong and healthy IT services industry. Corp tax rate is obviously the driver but they're actually building something of substance this time instead of the property bubble that led the way at the turn of the millenium.
Q1 2019 2.4%
Q4 2018 0.3%
Q3 2018 2%
Q2 2018 1.5%
Q1 2018 -0.1%
stongle said:
Because you'd need a bed the size of the square mile for 824m.
Edit, ok technically you wouldnt more like couple of tennis courts if in 20's- but the rational for retail and wholesale are different.
On a day to day basis you could possibly make 20-25bps on the repo market (before costs). I.e. lend bunds @ - 65bps, depot at ECB @-.40. Crystalise 25bps in the middle. Repo is a wholesale product though, not even doable by corporates (well thats a whole another issue they might technically be able to do it but with zero liquidity).
Edit to add, actually if you borrowed the money from ecb ti buy the bunds in the first place you'd make 45bps+. Not bad for a round robin cash & carry trade. Almost riskless too (except for duration).
Didn't some of the German banks start doing this a couple of years back, figuring that the insurance cost on the cash was less than the negative rate on the deposits?Edit, ok technically you wouldnt more like couple of tennis courts if in 20's- but the rational for retail and wholesale are different.
On a day to day basis you could possibly make 20-25bps on the repo market (before costs). I.e. lend bunds @ - 65bps, depot at ECB @-.40. Crystalise 25bps in the middle. Repo is a wholesale product though, not even doable by corporates (well thats a whole another issue they might technically be able to do it but with zero liquidity).
Edit to add, actually if you borrowed the money from ecb ti buy the bunds in the first place you'd make 45bps+. Not bad for a round robin cash & carry trade. Almost riskless too (except for duration).
Edited by egomeister on Friday 23 August 14:12
Art0ir said:
Ireland managed 8.2% for 2018 and and 2.4% for Q1 2019 - up 6.3% compared with Q1 2018.
Things are booming down there honestly. I was on a course in Dublin at the beginning of the week and it's like the Celtic Tiger all over again only they've managed to really birth a strong and healthy IT services industry. Corp tax rate is obviously the driver but they're actually building something of substance this time instead of the property bubble that led the way at the turn of the millenium.
Until the EU forces them to increase their corporation tax rate to bring revenues back to the countries where they are earned for tax purposes...Things are booming down there honestly. I was on a course in Dublin at the beginning of the week and it's like the Celtic Tiger all over again only they've managed to really birth a strong and healthy IT services industry. Corp tax rate is obviously the driver but they're actually building something of substance this time instead of the property bubble that led the way at the turn of the millenium.
stongle said:
Art0ir said:
Ireland managed 8.2% for 2018 and and 2.4% for Q1 2019 - up 6.3% compared with Q1 2018.
Things are booming down there honestly. I was on a course in Dublin at the beginning of the week and it's like the Celtic Tiger all over again only they've managed to really birth a strong and healthy IT services industry. Corp tax rate is obviously the driver but they're actually building something of substance this time instead of the property bubble that led the way at the turn of the millenium.
Don't see those GDP numbers: Irelands GDP (per BBG data)Things are booming down there honestly. I was on a course in Dublin at the beginning of the week and it's like the Celtic Tiger all over again only they've managed to really birth a strong and healthy IT services industry. Corp tax rate is obviously the driver but they're actually building something of substance this time instead of the property bubble that led the way at the turn of the millenium.
Q1 2019 2.4%
Q4 2018 0.3%
Q3 2018 2%
Q2 2018 1.5%
Q1 2018 -0.1%
https://www.reuters.com/article/ireland-economy-gd...
stongle said:
No one is banning cash. Ever. In fact, the number of $100 bills in circulation passed $1 bills in 2018 or the first time. Most of these are being held outside the US.
Its almost certain that negative rates are coming on bank deposits. They already exist in Denmark on HNWI, and in Switzerland; anyone with 500k is paying 0.6% to depot their cash. Anyone with a pension fund is also indirectly supporting negative rates - the $16.5trillion of <0 yield debt haws to go somewhere.
We've run into a system where Monetary Policy and tighter financial regulation (resiliance and less fraud etc), and paradoxical and working against each other. Maybe the Greeks did have it right with their barter based economy (outside Athens), they should just never have (been allowed) joined the Euro.
I don't think cash will be banned any time soon, but the governments of the world have the power to make it sufficiently awkward and expensive to use that it might as well be. Deep negative rates depend on it!Its almost certain that negative rates are coming on bank deposits. They already exist in Denmark on HNWI, and in Switzerland; anyone with 500k is paying 0.6% to depot their cash. Anyone with a pension fund is also indirectly supporting negative rates - the $16.5trillion of <0 yield debt haws to go somewhere.
We've run into a system where Monetary Policy and tighter financial regulation (resiliance and less fraud etc), and paradoxical and working against each other. Maybe the Greeks did have it right with their barter based economy (outside Athens), they should just never have (been allowed) joined the Euro.
Art0ir said:
stongle said:
Art0ir said:
Ireland managed 8.2% for 2018 and and 2.4% for Q1 2019 - up 6.3% compared with Q1 2018.
Things are booming down there honestly. I was on a course in Dublin at the beginning of the week and it's like the Celtic Tiger all over again only they've managed to really birth a strong and healthy IT services industry. Corp tax rate is obviously the driver but they're actually building something of substance this time instead of the property bubble that led the way at the turn of the millenium.
Don't see those GDP numbers: Irelands GDP (per BBG data)Things are booming down there honestly. I was on a course in Dublin at the beginning of the week and it's like the Celtic Tiger all over again only they've managed to really birth a strong and healthy IT services industry. Corp tax rate is obviously the driver but they're actually building something of substance this time instead of the property bubble that led the way at the turn of the millenium.
Q1 2019 2.4%
Q4 2018 0.3%
Q3 2018 2%
Q2 2018 1.5%
Q1 2018 -0.1%
https://www.reuters.com/article/ireland-economy-gd...
Agammemnon said:
Makes the big mattress attractive too.
Thank you- as I said, I find the professionals' perspective interesting as it's a completely different aspect from my own that helps see the larger picture.
Indeed. I was coming at it from the perspective of someone who could probably stick a reasonable chunk of his worldly wealth under the bed - OK I might need the spare room as well. When you need to park a few hundred million, I can see you either need to buy the local “Dreams” ... or one of these zero coupon bonds....Thank you- as I said, I find the professionals' perspective interesting as it's a completely different aspect from my own that helps see the larger picture.
s2art said:
Art0ir said:
stongle said:
Art0ir said:
Ireland managed 8.2% for 2018 and and 2.4% for Q1 2019 - up 6.3% compared with Q1 2018.
Things are booming down there honestly. I was on a course in Dublin at the beginning of the week and it's like the Celtic Tiger all over again only they've managed to really birth a strong and healthy IT services industry. Corp tax rate is obviously the driver but they're actually building something of substance this time instead of the property bubble that led the way at the turn of the millenium.
Don't see those GDP numbers: Irelands GDP (per BBG data)Things are booming down there honestly. I was on a course in Dublin at the beginning of the week and it's like the Celtic Tiger all over again only they've managed to really birth a strong and healthy IT services industry. Corp tax rate is obviously the driver but they're actually building something of substance this time instead of the property bubble that led the way at the turn of the millenium.
Q1 2019 2.4%
Q4 2018 0.3%
Q3 2018 2%
Q2 2018 1.5%
Q1 2018 -0.1%
https://www.reuters.com/article/ireland-economy-gd...
Art0ir said:
Hmm, I'm suspicious. I'm mobile now, so will try and work out the difference from BBG later. 8.2% is insane GDP. As is said it can't be comjng from normal GDP metrics - although accept that I might be wrong (GDP numbers are not calculated uniformally).China ramped up the trade war today with another 75bill of retaliatory tarriffs on US products.
Powell stuck to the playbook at Jackson Hole, reaffirming commitment to the employment and inflation goals. Called recent geopolitical situations "eventful"... seems the market is reading this as another rate cut in Sep. Some discussion on a sort of need for global harminisation of Central Bank policy - or not being too far out of step with other major banks. Seems to be a nod towards globalisation.
Some more hawkish comments that rate cuts won't work anymore, countered by the doves calling for cuts greater than a qtr point.
Interestingly the Fed picked out German contraction and BREXIT as key agitators to the Global economy. That tells me that the clowns in the UK and EU hovts need to get roubd the table and do a deal on Ireland or just fast track the FTA. It might have a boosting stimulus effect like a rate cut or more QE.
stongle said:
Art0ir said:
Hmm, I'm suspicious. I'm mobile now, so will try and work out the difference from BBG later. 8.2% is insane GDP. As is said it can't be comjng from normal GDP metrics - although accept that I might be wrong (GDP numbers are not calculated uniformally).China ramped up the trade war today with another 75bill of retaliatory tarriffs on US products.
Powell stuck to the playbook at Jackson Hole, reaffirming commitment to the employment and inflation goals. Called recent geopolitical situations "eventful"... seems the market is reading this as another rate cut in Sep. Some discussion on a sort of need for global harminisation of Central Bank policy - or not being too far out of step with other major banks. Seems to be a nod towards globalisation.
Some more hawkish comments that rate cuts won't work anymore, countered by the doves calling for cuts greater than a qtr point.
Interestingly the Fed picked out German contraction and BREXIT as key agitators to the Global economy. That tells me that the clowns in the UK and EU hovts need to get roubd the table and do a deal on Ireland or just fast track the FTA. It might have a boosting stimulus effect like a rate cut or more QE.
Gandahar said:
"Europe heading into recession"
You wish
The ends nigh for the euro of course, lets not forget that classic on here.
Well, by any sensible metric we are past that point. But new normal and all that. It is done, but we've got the timing wrong. Probably. You wish
The ends nigh for the euro of course, lets not forget that classic on here.
If you listen to what central bankers are saying, MP is done and fiscal drop is needed. No one can afford to that and no ones voting for tax increases.
It's f
king resilient though. After Putin and Trump nuke the planet to death the only things left might be cockroaches and the fking Euro.Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff