How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 8)

[jet_noise]

simonbrooks said:

A quick question.

Have the "In dependance" group shot themselves in the collective foot?

I mean, if they get enough members that the Conservatives can no longer govern and May calls a GE, parliament would be suspended until the GE and thus won't we be out of the EU before the GE can happen? In which case their whole purpose for being is then negated. Before someone simply says "Ah but they'll just extend the deadline" the government (May) has to do that not parliament don't they? In which case, they may not extend it and we end up leaving by default.

Or am I wide of the mark here?

This is a specific example of a wider conflict of interest.
Anybody arguing for a non-WTO terms Brexit, from remainers to supporters of May's deal are far more likely to get this default leave than the terms they want. No agreement by March 29th, WTO terms it is.

[slow_poke]

loafer123 said:

amusingduck said:

70%?

Wouldn't it just revert back to WTO, which seems to be about 13% + a couple hundred euros per 100kg.

The point is that, in the absence of a FTA wth the EU, Irish farmers would be on the same tariff as Brazilian farmers, with that tariff being whatever we chose it to be.

If we did a FTA with Brazil before once with the EU, the Brazilian farmers might even be on better terms than Irish ones.

And the wider point is, Gove has identified a possible vulnerability in the Irish Govt (Beef farmers are an influential lobby group in Ireland) and is exploiting or threatening to exploit it, to pressurise the Irish Govt to soften their stance on the backstop.

[simonbrooks]

jet_noise said:

This is a specific example of a wider conflict of interest.
Anybody arguing for a non-WTO terms Brexit, from remainers to supporters of May's deal are far more likely to get this default leave than the terms they want. No agreement by March 29th, WTO terms it is.

So how come they can't see that then? Are they really that blind / dumb? The one thing May has been consistent on is that it is her deal or no deal. If they deny her deal again then it will be no deal. Oh well.

[PurpleMoonlight]

slow_poke said:

And the wider point is, Gove has identified a possible vulnerability in the Irish Govt (Beef farmers are an influential lobby group in Ireland) and is exploiting or threatening to exploit it, to pressurise the Irish Govt to soften their stance on the backstop.

How to win friends and influence people, try blackmail.

I'm sure the RoW will be falling over themselves to trade with us ...

[Amateurish]

amusingduck said:

Amateurish said:

slow_poke said:

Ah ha. Finally, there's some evidence of a UK Minister using his brains and growing a set of balls in EU/UK negotiations. i was wondering when innate British political nous would start showing up. This is clever, identifying a weakness in an opponent and applying pressure to gain wider strategic advantages:

https://www.independent.ie/business/farming/news/f...

Do you think imposing 70% tariffs on beef imports from the EU is a good plan?

70%?

Wouldn't it just revert back to WTO, which seems to be about 13% + a couple hundred euros per 100kg.

I'm only repeating what the quoted article said. You used it as a source, not me.

"When it comes to agri-food, the WTO tariffs that would have to be imposed on Irish goods to the UK are severe, especially for the beef sector.

It would mean that Irish beef being exported to the UK would be subject to tariffs in the region of 70pc. Add in trade costs, veterinary checks and paperwork, and industry figures suggest the real cost could be in the region of 84pc."

[slow_poke]

PurpleMoonlight said:

slow_poke said:

And the wider point is, Gove has identified a possible vulnerability in the Irish Govt (Beef farmers are an influential lobby group in Ireland) and is exploiting or threatening to exploit it, to pressurise the Irish Govt to soften their stance on the backstop.

How to win friends and influence people, try blackmail.

I'm sure the RoW will be falling over themselves to trade with us ...

I'm sure they're all professional politicians and diplomats enough to realise it's nothing personal, just big boy rules. After all, Ireland's been running rings around the UK Govt for the last 12-18 months.

[Piha]

slow_poke said:

Ah ha. Finally, there's some evidence of a UK Minister using his brains and growing a set of balls in EU/UK negotiations. i was wondering when innate British political nous would start showing up. This is clever, identifying a weakness in an opponent and applying pressure to gain wider strategic advantages:

https://www.independent.ie/business/farming/news/f...

Errrr, quite....

Threats have always been the best way to conduct negotiations haven't they...??

[London424]

Piha said:

slow_poke said:

Ah ha. Finally, there's some evidence of a UK Minister using his brains and growing a set of balls in EU/UK negotiations. i was wondering when innate British political nous would start showing up. This is clever, identifying a weakness in an opponent and applying pressure to gain wider strategic advantages:

https://www.independent.ie/business/farming/news/f...

Errrr, quite....

Threats have always been the best way to conduct negotiations haven't they...??

Seems to work quite well for some. Seems a bit two faced to call the UK out when they've been on the receiving end enough.

[Piha]

London424 said:

Piha said:

slow_poke said:

Ah ha. Finally, there's some evidence of a UK Minister using his brains and growing a set of balls in EU/UK negotiations. i was wondering when innate British political nous would start showing up. This is clever, identifying a weakness in an opponent and applying pressure to gain wider strategic advantages:

https://www.independent.ie/business/farming/news/f...

Errrr, quite....

Threats have always been the best way to conduct negotiations haven't they...??

Seems to work quite well for some. Seems a bit two faced to call the UK out when they've been on the receiving end enough.

I'd like to think that our UK people are above that kind of behaviour but if you think differently, then that's entirely up to you.

[SpeckledJim]

slow_poke said:

PurpleMoonlight said:

slow_poke said:

And the wider point is, Gove has identified a possible vulnerability in the Irish Govt (Beef farmers are an influential lobby group in Ireland) and is exploiting or threatening to exploit it, to pressurise the Irish Govt to soften their stance on the backstop.

How to win friends and influence people, try blackmail.

I'm sure the RoW will be falling over themselves to trade with us ...

I'm sure they're all professional politicians and diplomats enough to realise it's nothing personal, just big boy rules. After all, Ireland's been running rings around the UK Govt for the last 12-18 months.

Quite. Everybody's job is to get the best result for their team.

No different to the EU insisting on agreement on the £39bn before any further negotiations could take place.

Got a lever? Use it.

[SpeckledJim]

Piha said:

I'd like to think that our UK people are above that kind of behaviour but if you think differently, then that's entirely up to you.

This point of view isn't related to your determination that this must end badly for the UK?

We should refuse to play whatever cards we hold. After all, this started in London, and so we bloody deserve to be punished!

[Earthdweller]

I see the European medicines agency has been told it must honour its London lease for the next 21years at £13m pa

[Earthdweller]

SpeckledJim said:

slow_poke said:

PurpleMoonlight said:

slow_poke said:

And the wider point is, Gove has identified a possible vulnerability in the Irish Govt (Beef farmers are an influential lobby group in Ireland) and is exploiting or threatening to exploit it, to pressurise the Irish Govt to soften their stance on the backstop.

How to win friends and influence people, try blackmail.

I'm sure the RoW will be falling over themselves to trade with us ...

I'm sure they're all professional politicians and diplomats enough to realise it's nothing personal, just big boy rules. After all, Ireland's been running rings around the UK Govt for the last 12-18 months.

Quite. Everybody's job is to get the best result for their team.

No different to the EU insisting on agreement on the £39bn before any further negotiations could take place.

Got a lever? Use it.

Coveney is saying the E.U. will bail out Irish Farmers so no need to worry

What are the E.U. going to do with 500k cows each year ?

[jet_noise]

simonbrooks said:

jet_noise said:

This is a specific example of a wider conflict of interest.
Anybody arguing for a non-WTO terms Brexit, from remainers to supporters of May's deal are far more likely to get this default leave than the terms they want. No agreement by March 29th, WTO terms it is.

So how come they can't see that then? Are they really that blind / dumb? The one thing May has been consistent on is that it is her deal or no deal. If they deny her deal again then it will be no deal. Oh well.

Lack of vison, lack of consequences, lack of responsibility, always somebody else's fault. We'll not have seen any shoulders more slopey

[toppstuff]

Piha said:

slow_poke said:

Ah ha. Finally, there's some evidence of a UK Minister using his brains and growing a set of balls in EU/UK negotiations. i was wondering when innate British political nous would start showing up. This is clever, identifying a weakness in an opponent and applying pressure to gain wider strategic advantages:

https://www.independent.ie/business/farming/news/f...

Errrr, quite....

Threats have always been the best way to conduct negotiations haven't they...??

And so it begins.

People smarter than me for whom knowledge of global trade is their professional career, tell me the UK is being incredibly naive when it comes to how trade works and how deals are made. His view ( he’s a Professor on the subject based in the US ) fears it could go very badly for us. We have not started well and are not showing signs of learning. The Japan UK deal is an example - the Japanese are playing it tough and apparently not prepared to give as good terms as they’ve given the E.U.

Conducting trade discussions in public like this with something like beef with Ireland, is a moronic thing to do IMO.

Sorry - an anecdote. I know the PH Brexit massive hate anecdotes unless backed up by enequivocal truth from an approved source but stuff it - it’s an honest reflection. If you don’t like it, ignore it and move on.

[Vanden Saab]

Earthdweller said:

I see the European medicines agency has been told it must honour its London lease for the next 21years at £13m pa

I am sure that the other 27 eu members will be delighted to be paying 1/2 billion a year each for the EU to make a point...

[Troubleatmill]

[aquote=Earthdweller]I see the European medicines agency has been told it must honour its London lease for the next 21years at £13m pa


[/quote]

Someone didn’t do their due diligence when preparing the contract.

[toppstuff]

Earthdweller said:

I see the European medicines agency has been told it must honour its London lease for the next 21years at £13m pa

It’s ok they will sublease to one of the long list of corporates queuing to set up here.

[Ayahuasca]

PurpleMoonlight said:

slow_poke said:

And the wider point is, Gove has identified a possible vulnerability in the Irish Govt (Beef farmers are an influential lobby group in Ireland) and is exploiting or threatening to exploit it, to pressurise the Irish Govt to soften their stance on the backstop.

How to win friends and influence people, try blackmail.

I'm sure the RoW will be falling over themselves to trade with us ...

Why should we favour Irish beef over Brazilian beef?

[alfie2244]

toppstuff said:

Conducting trade discussions in public like this with something like beef with Ireland, is a moronic thing to do IMO.

So Gove is a Moron?