How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 8)

[SunsetZed]

crankedup said:

SunsetZed said:

MDMetal said:

toppstuff said:

SpeckledJim said:

toppstuff said:

Do not make the assumption that because I voted remain I believe all the doom and gloom. I do not !!

I think the predictions of doom right after brexit are rubbish just like you do.

However I also believe that we will fail to get the FTAs we want fast enough. I am concerned the medium term pain could be considerable and no one seems prepared to admit that it is likely. And when it does come I think people will be very unhappy indeed - or at least I think that this is a risk. A risk people aren’t taking seriously.

I'm not assuming you believed all of PF.

If employment had fallen sharply since mid 2016, I think it's reasonable to assume you'd be pointing at that as a bad consequence of the Brexit vote. I would be.

Since the reverse has happened, I don't think it's squareable to not say it's a good thing.

Don’t get me wrong I think the employment numbers are great ! I’m just a little concerned that some are taking too much comfort from them. I’m not sure they are telling the full picture that’s all.

The thing is employment figures aren't imagined by some govt department it's companies hiring people so it's hard to see how hiring more people (or creating more roles) is bad? With respect to Zero hours the point is surely and always should be not to force people into contracts or jobs they don't want to be in. One hopes as the number of free people dries up it forces companies to improve their terms so people aren't forced into ways of working they don't want. Obviously Zero hours work fine for some people so great that they have that option.

In the end what do we want? As many people as possible to have a well paying job in a role they want with a contract that gives them what they want.

Don't ignore the public sector here, Labour under Bliar in particular were masters at creating jobs out of thin air, not least in the NHS.

Works very well politically, especially for those on the left as it not only raises employment figures but also you can then accuse the next government of savage cuts whilst ignoring how bloated the organisations got on your watch.

You do understand that Local Authorities are all fairly well skint! Government handouts have been reduced ed year on year for ten years now and the Councils have been instructed regards % of increase permitted to pass onto the local residents. Virtually all services are now contracted out looking for best value.I don’t see them as breeding grounds for mopping up out of work people.

No arguments there and I wasn't (intentionally) suggesting it was happening now, I was just pointing out how the figures have been manipulated in the past.

[PurpleMoonlight]

Sway said:

After months of complaints that "Brexiteers cannot accept there are downsides to the vote" - is today's discussion on employment figures a great example of the opposite, with Remainers twisting to find anyway to spin the stats as negative?

If its really such a good thing why is our GDP increase to poor?

I suspect that minimal hours on minimum wage to claim maximum tax credits is not good for the economy.

[crankedup]

SunsetZed said:

crankedup said:

SunsetZed said:

MDMetal said:

toppstuff said:

SpeckledJim said:

toppstuff said:

Do not make the assumption that because I voted remain I believe all the doom and gloom. I do not !!

I think the predictions of doom right after brexit are rubbish just like you do.

However I also believe that we will fail to get the FTAs we want fast enough. I am concerned the medium term pain could be considerable and no one seems prepared to admit that it is likely. And when it does come I think people will be very unhappy indeed - or at least I think that this is a risk. A risk people aren’t taking seriously.

I'm not assuming you believed all of PF.

If employment had fallen sharply since mid 2016, I think it's reasonable to assume you'd be pointing at that as a bad consequence of the Brexit vote. I would be.

Since the reverse has happened, I don't think it's squareable to not say it's a good thing.

Don’t get me wrong I think the employment numbers are great ! I’m just a little concerned that some are taking too much comfort from them. I’m not sure they are telling the full picture that’s all.

The thing is employment figures aren't imagined by some govt department it's companies hiring people so it's hard to see how hiring more people (or creating more roles) is bad? With respect to Zero hours the point is surely and always should be not to force people into contracts or jobs they don't want to be in. One hopes as the number of free people dries up it forces companies to improve their terms so people aren't forced into ways of working they don't want. Obviously Zero hours work fine for some people so great that they have that option.

In the end what do we want? As many people as possible to have a well paying job in a role they want with a contract that gives them what they want.

Don't ignore the public sector here, Labour under Bliar in particular were masters at creating jobs out of thin air, not least in the NHS.

Works very well politically, especially for those on the left as it not only raises employment figures but also you can then accuse the next government of savage cuts whilst ignoring how bloated the organisations got on your watch.

You do understand that Local Authorities are all fairly well skint! Government handouts have been reduced ed year on year for ten years now and the Councils have been instructed regards % of increase permitted to pass onto the local residents. Virtually all services are now contracted out looking for best value.I don’t see them as breeding grounds for mopping up out of work people.

No arguments there and I wasn't (intentionally) suggesting it was happening now, I was just pointing out how the figures have been manipulated in the past.

Fair do and agree.

[Sway]

PurpleMoonlight said:

Sway said:

After months of complaints that "Brexiteers cannot accept there are downsides to the vote" - is today's discussion on employment figures a great example of the opposite, with Remainers twisting to find anyway to spin the stats as negative?

If its really such a good thing why is our GDP increase to poor?

I suspect that minimal hours on minimum wage to claim maximum tax credits is not good for the economy.

I'd suggest matching the EZ average rate, considering not long ago people were holding up short term predicted differences in growth rates, is pretty bloody good.

I noted earlier that the report on UK GDP majored very heavily on "because brexit" whereas the report on the EZ's same level of growth was "global economics"...

[PurpleMoonlight]

Sway said:

I'd suggest matching the EZ average rate, considering not long ago people were holding up short term predicted differences in growth rates, is pretty bloody good.

I noted earlier that the report on UK GDP majored very heavily on "because brexit" whereas the report on the EZ's same level of growth was "global economics"...

It's being reported that EZ are heading for a recession. I guess we must be too then.

[Sway]

PurpleMoonlight said:

Sway said:

I'd suggest matching the EZ average rate, considering not long ago people were holding up short term predicted differences in growth rates, is pretty bloody good.

I noted earlier that the report on UK GDP majored very heavily on "because brexit" whereas the report on the EZ's same level of growth was "global economics"...

It's being reported that EZ are heading for a recession. I guess we must be too then.

The core economies of the Eurozone are (and are showing poorer figures than the UK for 18). The overall EZ isn't being called just yet that I've seen, but is pulled up by some strong growth in the weaker/smaller economies...

[Vanden Saab]

PurpleMoonlight said:

Sway said:

After months of complaints that "Brexiteers cannot accept there are downsides to the vote" - is today's discussion on employment figures a great example of the opposite, with Remainers twisting to find anyway to spin the stats as negative?

If its really such a good thing why is our GDP increase to poor?

I suspect that minimal hours on minimum wage to claim maximum tax credits is not good for the economy.

It is a good job then that the employment figures are showing the complete opposite then. GDP covers lots of different factors. Rises in services are offset by reductions in production and construction.

[slow_poke]

Can't help but feel that we're straying from the topic here chaps. Like with the Tuna intermission a few days ago, but not quite as riveting....

[Elysium]

This is a long read, but it sounds very plausible in terms of the internal Conservative party dynamics:

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/theresa-may...

It's interesting to look back at the Mansion House speech, where friction-less trade and a customs partnership were clearly on the table:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43256183

It may be semantics regarding 'a customs union' vs 'the customs union', but the rules seem to have changed now:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/11/b...

I also think the Huffington Post article hits the spot regarding the ERG. They are willing to 'die on the cross' over Brexit, whilst life will go on for Tory remainers.

I know many on here are in favour of no-deal. I guess they will be pleased that May's no-deal 'bluff' may have turned into a no-deal paralysis where 'running down the clock' is the only way to protect the Tory party.

Let's hope that if it happens, the impact is less severe than some predict.

[toppstuff]

Robertj21a said:

toppstuff said:

SpeckledJim said:

toppstuff said:

Do not make the assumption that because I voted remain I believe all the doom and gloom. I do not !!

I think the predictions of doom right after brexit are rubbish just like you do.

However I also believe that we will fail to get the FTAs we want fast enough. I am concerned the medium term pain could be considerable and no one seems prepared to admit that it is likely. And when it does come I think people will be very unhappy indeed - or at least I think that this is a risk. A risk people aren’t taking seriously.

I'm not assuming you believed all of PF.

If employment had fallen sharply since mid 2016, I think it's reasonable to assume you'd be pointing at that as a bad consequence of the Brexit vote. I would be.

Since the reverse has happened, I don't think it's squareable to not say it's a good thing.

Don’t get me wrong I think the employment numbers are great ! I’m just a little concerned that some are taking too much comfort from them. I’m not sure they are telling the full picture that’s all.

A wonderful comment from the one person who ends many posts with a request for evidence to be provided - then, when it's provided, he dismisses it ..........

Jeez. Let’s all gang mob the remainer again. It gets a bit boring.

Look. I am absolutely not playing down the great employment numbers. And I KEEP telling you all I do not believe in project fear alarms either.

BUT. I’m not as relaxed about the economy as you all seem to be. I see real risks in the medium term from brexit that cap ex will move to the SM.

In terms of the high employment - while it is great we must also accept it is a function of our devalued currency and it’s boost to manufacturing. This currency advantage could be argued is compensating for other, more concerning systematic problems.

Seeing everyone dancing around as if it is all peachy seems rather misplaced to me. A devalued currency can only work for so long and we have yet to see how robust things will be when faced with potential tariffs and a potentially long wait for meaningful FTAs.

And yes. I am miserable at Christmas too.

[Robertj21a]

toppstuff said:

Robertj21a said:

toppstuff said:

SpeckledJim said:

toppstuff said:

Do not make the assumption that because I voted remain I believe all the doom and gloom. I do not !!

I think the predictions of doom right after brexit are rubbish just like you do.

However I also believe that we will fail to get the FTAs we want fast enough. I am concerned the medium term pain could be considerable and no one seems prepared to admit that it is likely. And when it does come I think people will be very unhappy indeed - or at least I think that this is a risk. A risk people aren’t taking seriously.

I'm not assuming you believed all of PF.

If employment had fallen sharply since mid 2016, I think it's reasonable to assume you'd be pointing at that as a bad consequence of the Brexit vote. I would be.

Since the reverse has happened, I don't think it's squareable to not say it's a good thing.

Don’t get me wrong I think the employment numbers are great ! I’m just a little concerned that some are taking too much comfort from them. I’m not sure they are telling the full picture that’s all.

A wonderful comment from the one person who ends many posts with a request for evidence to be provided - then, when it's provided, he dismisses it ..........

Jeez. Let’s all gang mob the remainer again. It gets a bit boring.

Look. I am absolutely not playing down the great employment numbers. And I KEEP telling you all I do not believe in project fear alarms either.

BUT. I’m not as relaxed about the economy as you all seem to be. I see real risks in the medium term from brexit that cap ex will move to the SM.

In terms of the high employment - while it is great we must also accept it is a function of our devalued currency and it’s boost to manufacturing. This currency advantage could be argued is compensating for other, more concerning systematic problems.

Seeing everyone dancing around as if it is all peachy seems rather misplaced to me. A devalued currency can only work for so long and we have yet to see how robust things will be when faced with potential tariffs and a potentially long wait for meaningful FTAs.

And yes. I am miserable at Christmas too.

Perhaps some of us get a bit fed up with your continual pessimism over absolutely anything. Even 'good' news you seem to doubt and I'm sure that you won't really be happy until Corbyn gets in and you can tell us how we asked for it.
It all begins to sound too much like 'The Twins' for my personal liking - but I'm also the first to say that this is a forum for discussion and free speech.

[toppstuff]

Robertj21a said:

Perhaps some of us get a bit fed up with your continual pessimism over absolutely anything. Even 'good' news you seem to doubt and I'm sure that you won't really be happy until Corbyn gets in and you can tell us how we asked for it.
It all begins to sound too much like 'The Twins' for my personal liking - but I'm also the first to say that this is a forum for discussion and free speech.

I live here like you do. I’ve got a home, savings , family and friends all invested in the future of this country.

I see warning signs EVERYWHERE that brexit is not a good thing to do right here, right now. I’m in my 50s and although everyone simply discounts my experience and takes the piss, I AM well travelled and I’ve seen and done a lot. I am not apologising for that.

And I don’t like what I see.

Anyhow. It is what it is.

[Robertj21a]

toppstuff said:

Robertj21a said:

Perhaps some of us get a bit fed up with your continual pessimism over absolutely anything. Even 'good' news you seem to doubt and I'm sure that you won't really be happy until Corbyn gets in and you can tell us how we asked for it.
It all begins to sound too much like 'The Twins' for my personal liking - but I'm also the first to say that this is a forum for discussion and free speech.

I live here like you do. I’ve got a home, savings , family and friends all invested in the future of this country.

I see warning signs EVERYWHERE that brexit is not a good thing to do right here, right now. I’m in my 50s and although everyone simply discounts my experience and takes the piss, I AM well travelled and I’ve seen and done a lot. I am not apologising for that.

And I don’t like what I see.

Anyhow. It is what it is.

??

I honestly think you're misreading some of all this. You have tended to set yourself up as some form of 'expert' on what other countries think about Brexit. Others, who seem to have travelled just as much, seem to have different views to your own, but it can appear that you believe only your view can be the correct one.
I don't think anyone is deliberately 'taking the piss' - or if they are then it's probably because you have set yourself up to take a tumble.
I can cope with pessimists but, like it or not, your view is just that - your view. You may be proved right, or you may have been suckered in by The Guardian or left-wing views elsewhere, I don't know.
The overall impression you give (to me at least) is that you are quite sensitive to anyone disagreeing with you - in which case you're always going to have some difficulties on this particular thread.

[Nath911t]

steve_k said:

May deal top 40 horrors

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-17/40-hidde...

I think it will take a bit more than removing the backstop to get through.

I know a few people have quoted this but what an absolute disaster of a "deal" - you'd have to have been dropped on your head a few times to even think May's deal is acceptable.

What's her plan? Leave it to the very last minute and let MPs go for this or no deal?

[anonymous-user]

Robertj21a said:

toppstuff said:

Robertj21a said:

Perhaps some of us get a bit fed up with your continual pessimism over absolutely anything. Even 'good' news you seem to doubt and I'm sure that you won't really be happy until Corbyn gets in and you can tell us how we asked for it.
It all begins to sound too much like 'The Twins' for my personal liking - but I'm also the first to say that this is a forum for discussion and free speech.

I live here like you do. I’ve got a home, savings , family and friends all invested in the future of this country.

I see warning signs EVERYWHERE that brexit is not a good thing to do right here, right now. I’m in my 50s and although everyone simply discounts my experience and takes the piss, I AM well travelled and I’ve seen and done a lot. I am not apologising for that.

And I don’t like what I see.

Anyhow. It is what it is.

??

I honestly think you're misreading some of all this. You have tended to set yourself up as some form of 'expert' on what other countries think about Brexit. Others, who seem to have travelled just as much, seem to have different views to your own, but it can appear that you believe only your view can be the correct one.
I don't think anyone is deliberately 'taking the piss' - or if they are then it's probably because you have set yourself up to take a tumble.
I can cope with pessimists but, like it or not, your view is just that - your view. You may be proved right, or you may have been suckered in by The Guardian or left-wing views elsewhere, I don't know.
The overall impression you give (to me at least) is that you are quite sensitive to anyone disagreeing with you - in which case you're always going to have some difficulties on this particular thread.

Yup, well said. I'm in my fifties, I have an SME and responsibilities to all my staff, yet perhaps we are more open to taking a risk than seeing this Country in servitude, as we believe in it.

[richie99]

Nath911t said:

I know a few people have quoted this but what an absolute disaster of a "deal" - you'd have to have been dropped on your head a few times to even think May's deal is acceptable.

What's her plan? Leave it to the very last minute and let MPs go for this or no deal?

Yep. You've got it! "I just need a bit more time. I will be getting agreement from the EU any day now." Spin it all out, run down the clock. "Oops it's too late to do anything else now."

I think I'd heard somewhere that the reason for trying to delay any parliamentary vote until 27 Feb is that by then it is too late to pass legislation to ask for a delay to Art 50 before we have actually left.

[Murph7355]

Elysium said:

...
I know many on here are in favour of no-deal. I guess they will be pleased that May's no-deal 'bluff' may have turned into a no-deal paralysis where 'running down the clock' is the only way to protect the Tory party.

Let's hope that if it happens, the impact is less severe than some predict.

FWIW I would not be at all surprised if there are other twists and turns over the next few weeks that see BRINO or not actually leaving happen...I would not put it past the scheming idiots in the HoC who after clearly voting for "no deal" as the default, now come out in droves saying we can't let that happen.

The damage to this country, if that happens, will be significant. Not just politically at home, but if anyone even remotely thinks it would improve our standing both within the EU or globally, I'm afraid I think they've been smoking something we will all need much more of. History will not view May and Robbins well on this (or anything else I should think).

I'm of the opinion that the impact of "no deal" could not possibly be any worse than the doom that has been cast around. Medicines being in short supply, traffic through Calais down 87%, job losses, GDP nailed to the wall, security down the toilet so no doubt we'll be subject to mass jihad/Irish people and unionists alike blowing people up again, people being confined to quarters unable to travel anywhere, flights grounded, the car industry killed just before Finance goes the same way, food shortages and horrendous inflation....I'm sure there's quite a bit I've missed. But I'd struggle to think of anything more severe, wouldn't you? (Maybe Ikea will snuff us off a map of the world like they did to NZ?)

No deal would now be my strong preference. The hyperbole is just that. There'd be some wrinkles. A little while of smelling salts and then life would carry on (both sides)...possibly even with some "how the f*ck did we let that happen. Maybe we should now discuss a trade deal without all the handcuffs". And if not for a while, so be that too. I don't see the EU moving on the backstop as they smell blood, rightly or wrongly. Whichever way this goes now, that will also ultimately be a mistake as nothing will have been resolved.

[pingu393]

richie99 said:

Nath911t said:

I know a few people have quoted this but what an absolute disaster of a "deal" - you'd have to have been dropped on your head a few times to even think May's deal is acceptable.

What's her plan? Leave it to the very last minute and let MPs go for this or no deal?

Yep. You've got it! "I just need a bit more time. I will be getting agreement from the EU any day now." Spin it all out, run down the clock. "Oops it's too late to do anything else now."

I think I'd heard somewhere that the reason for trying to delay any parliamentary vote until 27 Feb is that by then it is too late to pass legislation to ask for a delay to Art 50 before we have actually left.

It might only be Maggie May who can officially ask the EU for an extension to A50.

If there were a vote to extend, I anticipate her getting on the wrong plane, or forgetting her handbag

How long would it take for the EU to get all 27 members together to agree? Do they all have to be in the same room at the same time?

I've put off painting the bathroom for ages (I won't specify how long, but it's years, not months ). If she wants any hints and tips on delaying tactics, I'm available at reasonable consultancy rates

[jonnyb]

Murph7355 said:

Elysium said:

...
I know many on here are in favour of no-deal. I guess they will be pleased that May's no-deal 'bluff' may have turned into a no-deal paralysis where 'running down the clock' is the only way to protect the Tory party.

Let's hope that if it happens, the impact is less severe than some predict.

FWIW I would not be at all surprised if there are other twists and turns over the next few weeks that see BRINO or not actually leaving happen...I would not put it past the scheming idiots in the HoC who after clearly voting for "no deal" as the default, now come out in droves saying we can't let that happen.

The damage to this country, if that happens, will be significant. Not just politically at home, but if anyone even remotely thinks it would improve our standing both within the EU or globally, I'm afraid I think they've been smoking something we will all need much more of. History will not view May and Robbins well on this (or anything else I should think).

I'm of the opinion that the impact of "no deal" could not possibly be any worse than the doom that has been cast around. Medicines being in short supply, traffic through Calais down 87%, job losses, GDP nailed to the wall, security down the toilet so no doubt we'll be subject to mass jihad/Irish people and unionists alike blowing people up again, people being confined to quarters unable to travel anywhere, flights grounded, the car industry killed just before Finance goes the same way, food shortages and horrendous inflation....I'm sure there's quite a bit I've missed. But I'd struggle to think of anything more severe, wouldn't you? (Maybe Ikea will snuff us off a map of the world like they did to NZ?)

No deal would now be my strong preference. The hyperbole is just that. There'd be some wrinkles. A little while of smelling salts and then life would carry on (both sides)...possibly even with some "how the f*ck did we let that happen. Maybe we should now discuss a trade deal without all the handcuffs". And if not for a while, so be that too. I don't see the EU moving on the backstop as they smell blood, rightly or wrongly. Whichever way this goes now, that will also ultimately be a mistake as nothing will have been resolved.

The thing is that both the UK government and the Irish government are committed by international treaty to no hard boarder on the island of Ireland. How would a no deal cope with that. Or do we kiss good by to the Good Friday agreement too?

[mx5nut]

Murph7355 said:

scheming idiots in the HoC

I miss the days when Brexiters would pretend to care about parliamentary sovereignty.

Murph7355 said:

I'm of the opinion that the impact of "no deal" could not possibly be any worse than the doom that has been cast around.

Experts claim it will be bad. Social media memes say it'll be OK because we survived the blitz. Poster on a car forum believes the latter.

Murph7355 said:

I don't see the EU moving on the backstop as they smell blood would like to support Ireland and uphold the Good Friday Agreement

Fixed that for you