How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 8)

How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 8)

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Murph7355

24,043 posts

206 months

Tuesday 12th February 2019
quotequote all
crankedup said:
Elysium said:
Murph7355 said:
Final episode of "Inside Europe" on tonight. BBC2 at 2100.
Fascinating programme.

I found it rather difficult to explain to my teenage son why Europe could not simply work together to accommodate the Syrian migrants. In numbers they would have been a drop in the ocean amongst 450m EU citizens.
Yes for me it showed that for all its pontificating and boasting when it comes down to brass tacks they still operate as individual Countries concerned for themselves above all else.
I find the image of the 3yr old on the beach soul destroying - I think all the more so because I have a 3yr old boy.

But only politicians could take the path they did. They were far more worried about photo opportunities than they were the material outcomes of their decisions. The actions they were taking were actively encouraging migration.

The series has been interesting to say the least, and shone a big light on the "safeguards" many remainers insist exist to prevent the greater excesses of the EU - they break the rules when it suits.

Tusk seems to believe he saves the day every time and is always right, Juncker somehow came across as more level headed than I expected and the power brokers in the EU are without doubt Germany and France (to a lesser extent).

That series has done nothing but reaffirm in my mind that we are better off out of the EU. If it changes its approach then maybe one day it will be worth rejoining. Until then I dearly hope our government aren't suicidal enough to ignore the referendum. The EU has significant trouble brewing if it keeps doing what it has been.

mx5nut

3,633 posts

32 months

Tuesday 12th February 2019
quotequote all
Murph7355 said:
It means it is up to you what you do. If that means stationing 100k troops on a border, you can.
Actually, we can't do that on the Irish border.

JagLover

27,518 posts

185 months

Tuesday 12th February 2019
quotequote all
The new Brexit party might have found a new spokesman hehe

"They – the worlds bankers – the international Monetary Fund, the European Union, are utterly united in what they want. Utterly united in deflation, suppressing the economy and creating unemployment. We need to be equally united…to show that the voice of those campaigning for peace, justice, socialism, will not be silenced by these people. We will win through. We will defeat them"


https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/02/jeremy-corby...

JagLover

27,518 posts

185 months

Tuesday 12th February 2019
quotequote all
Vanden Saab said:
Feel free to back up this statement with the part in the GFA that says there cannot be future customs arrangements in Ireland to compliment the existing ones. The obvious answer is as the EU have already suggested a border between Ireland and the rest of the EU.
There is nothing in the GFA to say we need to be in a customs union with the EU, so they are not going to be able find this. In fact the WA, with backstop, seems more a breach as it is treating NI differently to the rest of the UK, without the consent of the province. Hence why Trimble is trying to mount a legal case against it on these grounds.

This is why many saying we have to agree to the WA as it is because of the good Friday agreement, talk of the "spirit" of the agreement rather than about its actual text. Which has very little to say on trade.

If you go to the bottom of this document you can see measures the UK government is recommended to pursue to fulfil its actual obligations under the GFA

https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cms...

Edited by JagLover on Tuesday 12th February 06:02

Robertj21a

7,649 posts

55 months

Tuesday 12th February 2019
quotequote all
Murph7355 said:
I find the image of the 3yr old on the beach soul destroying - I think all the more so because I have a 3yr old boy.

But only politicians could take the path they did. They were far more worried about photo opportunities than they were the material outcomes of their decisions. The actions they were taking were actively encouraging migration.

The series has been interesting to say the least, and shone a big light on the "safeguards" many remainers insist exist to prevent the greater excesses of the EU - they break the rules when it suits.

Tusk seems to believe he saves the day every time and is always right, Juncker somehow came across as more level headed than I expected and the power brokers in the EU are without doubt Germany and France (to a lesser extent).

That series has done nothing but reaffirm in my mind that we are better off out of the EU. If it changes its approach then maybe one day it will be worth rejoining. Until then I dearly hope our government aren't suicidal enough to ignore the referendum. The EU has significant trouble brewing if it keeps doing what it has been.
I would guess that your summary accurately reflects the views of very many people.

amusingduck

6,858 posts

86 months

Tuesday 12th February 2019
quotequote all
jonnyb said:
The thing is that both the UK government and the Irish government are committed by international treaty to no hard boarder on the island of Ireland. How would a no deal cope with that. Or do we kiss good by to the Good Friday agreement too?
The UK won't be putting up a hard border, perhaps the question should be "Why is the EU forcing it's member to breach international treaties?" or "Why is Ireland breaching international treaties?"

jonnyb said:
You’re not reading the quote.

She’s saying the UK government will not allow a situation where NI has to rely on the Irish government or the E.U. to not put up a hard boarder.

How is she going to do that exactly?
I think the flaw in your argument is the presumption that TM's words mean anything. She has repeatedly shown the opposite.

All we can guarantee is that we won't put up a hard border, that's the only thing fully within our control. What IRE and the EU do is entirely up to them.

jonnyb

2,462 posts

202 months

Tuesday 12th February 2019
quotequote all
amusingduck said:
jonnyb said:
The thing is that both the UK government and the Irish government are committed by international treaty to no hard boarder on the island of Ireland. How would a no deal cope with that. Or do we kiss good by to the Good Friday agreement too?
The UK won't be putting up a hard border, perhaps the question should be "Why is the EU forcing it's member to breach international treaties?" or "Why is Ireland breaching international treaties?"

jonnyb said:
You’re not reading the quote.

She’s saying the UK government will not allow a situation where NI has to rely on the Irish government or the E.U. to not put up a hard boarder.

How is she going to do that exactly?
I think the flaw in your argument is the presumption that TM's words mean anything. She has repeatedly shown the opposite.

All we can guarantee is that we won't put up a hard border, that's the only thing fully within our control. What IRE and the EU do is entirely up to them.
Well, ok, let’s say both sides are good to their word and there’s no hard border on the island of Ireland.

How would that work? How are you going to effectively police and tax goods from Ireland and the EU coming into Northern Ireland? Or the main land UK? How are the E.U. going to do it?

The only answer I can see would be a border down the Irish Sea, and a customs union on the island of Ireland.

Which crosses several of Mays and the DUPs red lines.

jonnyb

2,462 posts

202 months

Tuesday 12th February 2019
quotequote all
Robertj21a said:
Murph7355 said:
I find the image of the 3yr old on the beach soul destroying - I think all the more so because I have a 3yr old boy.

But only politicians could take the path they did. They were far more worried about photo opportunities than they were the material outcomes of their decisions. The actions they were taking were actively encouraging migration.

The series has been interesting to say the least, and shone a big light on the "safeguards" many remainers insist exist to prevent the greater excesses of the EU - they break the rules when it suits.

Tusk seems to believe he saves the day every time and is always right, Juncker somehow came across as more level headed than I expected and the power brokers in the EU are without doubt Germany and France (to a lesser extent).

That series has done nothing but reaffirm in my mind that we are better off out of the EU. If it changes its approach then maybe one day it will be worth rejoining. Until then I dearly hope our government aren't suicidal enough to ignore the referendum. The EU has significant trouble brewing if it keeps doing what it has been.
I would guess that your summary accurately reflects the views of very many people.
The E.U. can’t really win though can it?

When it tries to get member states to cooperate on issues that are Europe wide it’s accused of furthering it’s desire for a federal Europe, being undemocratic, and elitist.

When it leaves issues to member states, as in this issue, it’s accused of failing.

One wonders what the headlines of the Daily Mail would have been if the E.U. had told the UK that we would have to take 50,000 Syrian refugees.

amusingduck

6,858 posts

86 months

Tuesday 12th February 2019
quotequote all
jonnyb said:
Well, ok, let’s say both sides are good to their word and there’s no hard border on the island of Ireland.

How would that work? How are you going to effectively police and tax goods from Ireland and the EU coming into Northern Ireland? Or the main land UK? How are the E.U. going to do it?

The only answer I can see would be a border down the Irish Sea, and a customs union on the island of Ireland.

Which crosses several of Mays and the DUPs red lines.
The first half of your post - don't we already do that? We already have diverged rules with ROI, so those things are already being policed, aren't they?

Doesn't an Irish sea border breach the GFA? I thought it stated that NI couldn't be treated differently to the rest of the UK, or something to that effect?

mx5nut

3,633 posts

32 months

Tuesday 12th February 2019
quotequote all
jonnyb said:
The only answer I can see would be a border down the Irish Sea, and a customs union on the island of Ireland.
yes

But the Brextremists will scream and shout that it's unfair to put NI in a stronger position than the rest of the country, as they wanted to drag the whole of the UK down - not just the mainland.

Troubleatmill

8,394 posts

109 months

Tuesday 12th February 2019
quotequote all
mx5nut said:
jonnyb said:
The only answer I can see would be a border down the Irish Sea, and a customs union on the island of Ireland.
yes

But the Brextremists will scream and shout that it's unfair to put NI in a stronger position than the rest of the country, as they wanted to drag the whole of the UK down - not just the mainland.
As has been said many times before.
SNP would demand Scottish Govt and probably Welsh Govt too would demand same treatment as N.Ireland.

It won’t happen.

It’s all willy waving anyway.

There isn’t going to be a hard border.

Troubleatmill

8,394 posts

109 months

Tuesday 12th February 2019
quotequote all
mx5nut said:
You don’t need the company to own the ferries.

The most successful hotel company in the world has no hotels.
The most successful taxi company owns no taxis.

What needs to be understood is why did the company backers pull out their support?

Could it be that the business model was no longer viable once both Dover and Calais said we will not doing any more checks than we are already?



powerstroke

8,810 posts

110 months

Tuesday 12th February 2019
quotequote all
jonnyb said:
Well, ok, let’s say both sides are good to their word and there’s no hard border on the island of Ireland.

How would that work? How are you going to effectively police and tax goods from Ireland and the EU coming into Northern Ireland? Or the main land UK? How are the E.U. going to do it?

The only answer I can see would be a border down the Irish Sea, and a customs union on the island of Ireland.

Which crosses several of Mays and the DUPs red lines.
How does it work now ?? ditto repeat banghead different tax/VAT rates ,currency , what part of the NI ROI border isn't policed
at some level now ??? maybe a few more cameras both sides and more enforcement but why would things change ? most of the ROI trade is with the UK and the USA and ROI aren't in shegen so they check who comes in .. its just the EU being a ...

PurpleMoonlight

18,369 posts

107 months

Tuesday 12th February 2019
quotequote all
mx5nut said:
I watched him in Parliament yesterday and he repeatedly claimed the contract had cost the Government nothing.

He was challenged that surely in house time etc. had been incurred, and his response was that they were planning for a possible no deal as they must.

Whether £800,000 to external sources for a specific contract could be argued as planning is debatable.

Murph7355

24,043 posts

206 months

Tuesday 12th February 2019
quotequote all
jonnyb said:
Well, ok, let’s say both sides are good to their word and there’s no hard border on the island of Ireland.

How would that work? How are you going to effectively police and tax goods from Ireland and the EU coming into Northern Ireland? Or the main land UK? How are the E.U. going to do it?

The only answer I can see would be a border down the Irish Sea, and a customs union on the island of Ireland.

Which crosses several of Mays and the DUPs red lines.
If you think a border down the Irish Sea is doable, why not one with France? That doesn't compromise nation state borders and doesn't risk hurting the GFA. I'm struggling to see why the only solution you can see is to effectively split the UK. It feels like the only person you've listened to is Barnier, and only interpret him literally.

Goods checks away from the border are fine - Barnier has said as much and suggested they happen down the Irish Sea.

That would mean a political union trumping national borders which will never wash (and why it was being suggested).

Most EU bound goods from Ireland transit the UK. So to get to the EU they will go via France and any other continental ports that show willing to process traffic without messing about. They "need" the infrastructure there anyway, and Eire goods are going through there anyway (assuming we don't penalise the use of our infrastructure...).

Of course that leaves Eire potentially exposed to chlorinated chicken, and Northern Ireland exposed to tariff free Choco Liebnitz if people decide to smuggle. But there are regulation arbitrage checks "on" that border already, and processes to check away from actual borders exist already to deter it. But in the overall scheme of things... Who will really care? IF the primary goal is preserving peace (I'm not saying it shouldn't be but am pretty much convinced it isn't the primary one) then surely that is a small price to pay?

The Irish Border has been a bargaining chip. The EU knew it from the off, and May has been more than happy to go along with it - the only person she's trusted/agreed with on Brexit is a died in the wool EU-phile. The Irish Border gives rationale to being so closely coupled to the EU that we may as well not have left. The select Committee videos, and the Specttaor link posted earlier, amongst most events since Chequers, clearly demonstrate this IMO.

Fortunately, thus far, she has been thwarted. I'm 50:50 on whether she will ultimately succeed, but her "deal" would be a disaster for this country. All the downsides and pretty much none of the upside for either ref option.

Murph7355

24,043 posts

206 months

Tuesday 12th February 2019
quotequote all
jonnyb said:
The E.U. can’t really win though can it?
...
If the EU stuck to its own rules then it can (at least by showing it is consistent and considered).

True colours were being shown, again, during that documentary.

As they proved, if you have an open door policy it doesn't ease migration and does not make life safer for those migrating.

Focusing efforts closer to source and dealing with it internationally would be far more effective. But Merkel got herself caught up in the moment, got herself and the EU into a mess and it spiralled from there.

She, and the EU, can thank their lucky starts Erdogan is such a knobhead and attempted coups are still de rigeur in Turkey....

All very strange though when you consider what a universally positive concept FOM is....

powerstroke

8,810 posts

110 months

Tuesday 12th February 2019
quotequote all
jonnyb said:
I’m not sure if you’re serious?
You do know that Vidkun Quisling died in 1945?
Not sure if you are hard of thinking or just being obtuse !
Karl Marx died in 1883 we still call people Marxists .....

mx5nut

3,633 posts

32 months

Tuesday 12th February 2019
quotequote all
Troubleatmill said:
What needs to be understood is why did the company backers pull out their support?

Could it be that the business model was no longer viable once both Dover and Calais said we will not doing any more checks than we are already?
I thought it was because the Irish were punishing us.

I struggle to keep up with the latest Brexiter lies.

jonnyb

2,462 posts

202 months

Tuesday 12th February 2019
quotequote all
Murph7355 said:
jonnyb said:
Well, ok, let’s say both sides are good to their word and there’s no hard border on the island of Ireland.

How would that work? How are you going to effectively police and tax goods from Ireland and the EU coming into Northern Ireland? Or the main land UK? How are the E.U. going to do it?

The only answer I can see would be a border down the Irish Sea, and a customs union on the island of Ireland.

Which crosses several of Mays and the DUPs red lines.
If you think a border down the Irish Sea is doable, why not one with France? That doesn't compromise nation state borders and doesn't risk hurting the GFA. I'm struggling to see why the only solution you can see is to effectively split the UK. It feels like the only person you've listened to is Barnier, and only interpret him literally.

Goods checks away from the border are fine - Barnier has said as much and suggested they happen down the Irish Sea.

That would mean a political union trumping national borders which will never wash (and why it was being suggested).

Most EU bound goods from Ireland transit the UK. So to get to the EU they will go via France and any other continental ports that show willing to process traffic without messing about. They "need" the infrastructure there anyway, and Eire goods are going through there anyway (assuming we don't penalise the use of our infrastructure...).

Of course that leaves Eire potentially exposed to chlorinated chicken, and Northern Ireland exposed to tariff free Choco Liebnitz if people decide to smuggle. But there are regulation arbitrage checks "on" that border already, and processes to check away from actual borders exist already to deter it. But in the overall scheme of things... Who will really care? IF the primary goal is preserving peace (I'm not saying it shouldn't be but am pretty much convinced it isn't the primary one) then surely that is a small price to pay?

The Irish Border has been a bargaining chip. The EU knew it from the off, and May has been more than happy to go along with it - the only person she's trusted/agreed with on Brexit is a died in the wool EU-phile. The Irish Border gives rationale to being so closely coupled to the EU that we may as well not have left. The select Committee videos, and the Specttaor link posted earlier, amongst most events since Chequers, clearly demonstrate this IMO.

Fortunately, thus far, she has been thwarted. I'm 50:50 on whether she will ultimately succeed, but her "deal" would be a disaster for this country. All the downsides and pretty much none of the upside for either ref option.
Let’s turn this around and point out that the national border is the one between Ireland and Northen Ireland. Let’s also point out that you cannot subject the Irish republic to checks between its self and France, they would be well with in their rights to tell you where to go. They are an independent sovereign state.

The only checks we have control of in this area are checks on stuff coming from the republic to NI. We are committed by the GFA to not have a border on the island of Ireland. So if WE want any control of goods coming to the main land we have to have checks as they either leave NI or as they entered the main land.

Trying to control the flow of goods between NI and the republic seems impossible while keeping to the GFA. If anyone has any answers please write to your MP.

The other thing to consider is that at the moment Ireland isn’t in Shengen. What happens if they decide to join? How should we control flows of people from the republic to the mainland without a border somewhere?
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