How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 8)

How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 8)

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slow_poke

1,855 posts

233 months

Tuesday 12th February 2019
quotequote all
To be kinda fair and balanced about it, there is somewhere between very little and none at all chances of Ireland joining Schengen - that'd drive a horse and cart through the CTA, which they're very fond of.

Crackie

6,386 posts

241 months

Tuesday 12th February 2019
quotequote all
mx5nut said:
I struggle to keep up
Good post.

Sway

26,070 posts

193 months

Tuesday 12th February 2019
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jonnyb said:
The only checks we have control of in this area are checks on stuff coming from the republic to NI. We are committed by the GFA to not have a border on the island of Ireland. So if WE want any control of goods coming to the main land we have to have checks as they either leave NI or as they entered the main land.

Trying to control the flow of goods between NI and the republic seems impossible while keeping to the GFA. If anyone has any answers please write to your MP.

The other thing to consider is that at the moment Ireland isn’t in Shengen. What happens if they decide to join? How should we control flows of people from the republic to the mainland without a border somewhere?
On your first point, that's entirely based upon a false premise. The Belfast Agreement says nothing about customs management of goods. The closest it has anything relating to the border with respect to goods is not militarising any border points.

On your second, managed exactly the same way as now. When applying for long term accommodation or work, prove your eligibility. For a RoI citizen, just show your passport, same as a NI citizen would. For other EU citizens, show your residency permit.

alfie2244

11,292 posts

187 months

Tuesday 12th February 2019
quotequote all
jsf said:
WeCumTitVillage said:
Anyone know why the drunken President of the EU promised Ireland there wouldn't be a hard border under any circumstances?
https://youtu.be/G6ljJhZZo5s
Aha!

Toaster

2,938 posts

192 months

Tuesday 12th February 2019
quotequote all
When the ordinary man and woman voted for Brexit they should have considered why Mogg, Johnson, Banks Gove and their type want out of Europe, it isn't for your benefit, remember its always about the "Economy" "Jobs" Business etc never how it will improve your life.

David Lammy has highlighted this from an article by David Davies in the Times

David Lammy said "As David Davis details in today's Times, the point of Brexit has always been vast corporate tax cuts and brutal deregulation. If you are a Lexiteer expecting a socialist utopia to emerge after leaving the EU, more fool you."

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/aa3f785c-2d56-1...

We have never had anything concrete on how leaving Europe will benefit the ordinary person. Make our own laws Hmm let me think does that involve how business can take advantage of their employees....(which is most of those on Piston Heads)


PurpleMoonlight

22,362 posts

156 months

Tuesday 12th February 2019
quotequote all
Toaster said:
When the ordinary man and woman voted for Brexit they should have considered why Mogg, Johnson, Banks Gove and their type want out of Europe, it isn't for your benefit, remember its always about the "Economy" "Jobs" Business etc never how it will improve your life.

David Lammy has highlighted this from an article by David Davies in the Times

David Lammy said "As David Davis details in today's Times, the point of Brexit has always been vast corporate tax cuts and brutal deregulation. If you are a Lexiteer expecting a socialist utopia to emerge after leaving the EU, more fool you."

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/aa3f785c-2d56-1...

We have never had anything concrete on how leaving Europe will benefit the ordinary person. Make our own laws Hmm let me think does that involve how business can take advantage of their employees....(which is most of those on Piston Heads)

A cut in VAT would be welcome, might offset the additional tariffs we are going to have to pay.

But don't hold your breath.

Murph7355

37,651 posts

255 months

Tuesday 12th February 2019
quotequote all
jonnyb said:
Let’s turn this around and point out that the national border is the one between Ireland and Northen Ireland. Let’s also point out that you cannot subject the Irish republic to checks between its self and France, they would be well with in their rights to tell you where to go. They are an independent sovereign state.

The only checks we have control of in this area are checks on stuff coming from the republic to NI. We are committed by the GFA to not have a border on the island of Ireland. So if WE want any control of goods coming to the main land we have to have checks as they either leave NI or as they entered the main land.

Trying to control the flow of goods between NI and the republic seems impossible while keeping to the GFA. If anyone has any answers please write to your MP.

The other thing to consider is that at the moment Ireland isn’t in Shengen. What happens if they decide to join? How should we control flows of people from the republic to the mainland without a border somewhere?
There is no commitment in the GFA not to have a border. There is a border there already. Always has been.

If the Irish wish to continue using UK infrastructure to move their goods to the EU, then they are going to be subjected to "checks" getting into France etc anyway. So either they find other means of transporting goods (yup, I can see that helping the trade they have with the EU) or they are sucking this up. It also has NO impact to the GFA. So again, what is the primary purpose of this "issue"?

If they want to join Schengen, then it is down to them to find solutions that satisfy everyone without jeopardising the CTA/GFA. But personally I can't see anyone else wanting to join Schengen for quite some time - the documentary noted would make it more likely more would want out of it than in smile

Murph7355

37,651 posts

255 months

Tuesday 12th February 2019
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Crackie said:
mx5nut said:
I struggle.
Good post.
Indeed. Though as he seems to like accuracy, EFA.

Toaster

2,938 posts

192 months

Tuesday 12th February 2019
quotequote all
PurpleMoonlight said:
A cut in VAT would be welcome, might offset the additional tariffs we are going to have to pay.

But don't hold your breath.
It would but doubtful that would happen

Murph7355

37,651 posts

255 months

Tuesday 12th February 2019
quotequote all
Toaster said:
When the ordinary man and woman voted for Brexit they should have considered why Mogg, Johnson, Banks Gove and their type want out of Europe, it isn't for your benefit, remember its always about the "Economy" "Jobs" Business etc never how it will improve your life....
When the ordinary man and woman voted for Remain they should have considered why Cameron, Osborne, Blair, Mandelsson, Campbell and their type wanted to stay in the EU, it isn't for your benefit, remember its always about the "Economy" "Jobs" Business etc never how it will improve your life....

anonymous-user

53 months

Tuesday 12th February 2019
quotequote all
Murph7355 said:
Toaster said:
When the ordinary man and woman voted for Brexit they should have considered why Mogg, Johnson, Banks Gove and their type want out of Europe, it isn't for your benefit, remember its always about the "Economy" "Jobs" Business etc never how it will improve your life....
When the ordinary man and woman voted for Remain they should have considered why Cameron, Osborne, Blair, Mandelsson, Campbell and their type wanted to stay in the EU, it isn't for your benefit, remember its always about the "Economy" "Jobs" Business etc never how it will improve your life....
Good post

Dr Jekyll

23,820 posts

260 months

Tuesday 12th February 2019
quotequote all
Toaster said:
When the ordinary man and woman voted for Brexit they should have considered why Mogg, Johnson, Banks Gove and their type want out of Europe, it isn't for your benefit, remember its always about the "Economy" "Jobs" Business etc never how it will improve your life.

David Lammy has highlighted this from an article by David Davies in the Times

David Lammy said "As David Davis details in today's Times, the point of Brexit has always been vast corporate tax cuts and brutal deregulation. If you are a Lexiteer expecting a socialist utopia to emerge after leaving the EU, more fool you."

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/aa3f785c-2d56-1...

We have never had anything concrete on how leaving Europe will benefit the ordinary person. Make our own laws Hmm let me think does that involve how business can take advantage of their employees....(which is most of those on Piston Heads)

Where do you imagine corporation tax comes from if not 'ordinary persons'?

The easier life is for business, the more people they can employ and the better they have to treat them, other they'll go elsewhere or set up on their own.

fakenews

452 posts

76 months

Tuesday 12th February 2019
quotequote all
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6693697/P...

Even morally bankrupt Soros has lost control...awww shucks.

None of this is about the 99.999% - it's all to do with which pen the masses are ushered into next to be incessantly farmed...

king arthur

6,538 posts

260 months

Tuesday 12th February 2019
quotequote all
Crackie said:
mx5nut said:
I struggle to keep up
Good post.
hehe

king arthur

6,538 posts

260 months

Tuesday 12th February 2019
quotequote all
Toaster said:
PurpleMoonlight said:
A cut in VAT would be welcome, might offset the additional tariffs we are going to have to pay.

But don't hold your breath.
It would but doubtful that would happen
Bear in mind where the income from the tariffs ends up. At the moment 80% of it goes to the EU. From what I've read that is currently worth about £3.4B. According to John Redwood (I know maybe not the most impartial person but let's suppose he's somewhere near until anyone can find a better estimate) the additional tariffs that will be levied on imports from EU are estimated to be worth another £12B - but he says that due to changes in behaviour that would reduce to £10B.

So the government will have an extra £13 billion plus to play with after Brexit - this is nothing to do with EU contributions. They could well decide to use that for cuts in VAT. The extra money is after all effectively another form of tax in the first place.

jonnyb

2,590 posts

251 months

Tuesday 12th February 2019
quotequote all
Murph7355 said:
jonnyb said:
Let’s turn this around and point out that the national border is the one between Ireland and Northen Ireland. Let’s also point out that you cannot subject the Irish republic to checks between its self and France, they would be well with in their rights to tell you where to go. They are an independent sovereign state.

The only checks we have control of in this area are checks on stuff coming from the republic to NI. We are committed by the GFA to not have a border on the island of Ireland. So if WE want any control of goods coming to the main land we have to have checks as they either leave NI or as they entered the main land.

Trying to control the flow of goods between NI and the republic seems impossible while keeping to the GFA. If anyone has any answers please write to your MP.

The other thing to consider is that at the moment Ireland isn’t in Shengen. What happens if they decide to join? How should we control flows of people from the republic to the mainland without a border somewhere?
There is no commitment in the GFA not to have a border. There is a border there already. Always has been.

If the Irish wish to continue using UK infrastructure to move their goods to the EU, then they are going to be subjected to "checks" getting into France etc anyway. So either they find other means of transporting goods (yup, I can see that helping the trade they have with the EU) or they are sucking this up. It also has NO impact to the GFA. So again, what is the primary purpose of this "issue"?

If they want to join Schengen, then it is down to them to find solutions that satisfy everyone without jeopardising the CTA/GFA. But personally I can't see anyone else wanting to join Schengen for quite some time - the documentary noted would make it more likely more would want out of it than in smile
While not specifically mentioned that there will be no hard border in the GFA, its through the GFA that the "soft" border has come about. Just about everyone involved with the GFA, from the US Senator who chaired it, to the former head of the PSNI has stated that a return of a border could unravel the GFA. Just about every one excepts that the two issues are intrinsically linked.

You ask what the primary purpose of this issue is? I would argue that its peace on the island of Ireland, and subsequently on the mainland. Any return of border infrastructure to the island of Ireland would likely result in an upswing of paramilitary activity. Given that NI coveted to stay in, and along sectarian divides, with nationalists overwhelmingly voting to remain in the EU, one can see how the rebuilding of a hard border would inflame tensions that are already running high.

As has been said many times both sides do not want a border in the island, but there must be a border. An EU parliament briefing note already states that smuggling between the two nations across this border is "considerable", and that's with both nations in a customs union. That smuggling will only increase even further when we leave the customs union. Hardly conducive to "taking back control".

toppstuff

13,698 posts

246 months

Tuesday 12th February 2019
quotequote all
king arthur said:
Crackie said:
mx5nut said:
I struggle to keep up
Good post.
hehe
rolleyes

Earthdweller

13,432 posts

125 months

Tuesday 12th February 2019
quotequote all
jonnyb said:
Murph7355 said:
jonnyb said:
Well, ok, let’s say both sides are good to their word and there’s no hard border on the island of Ireland.

How would that work? How are you going to effectively police and tax goods from Ireland and the EU coming into Northern Ireland? Or the main land UK? How are the E.U. going to do it?

The only answer I can see would be a border down the Irish Sea, and a customs union on the island of Ireland.

Which crosses several of Mays and the DUPs red lines.
If you think a border down the Irish Sea is doable, why not one with France? That doesn't compromise nation state borders and doesn't risk hurting the GFA. I'm struggling to see why the only solution you can see is to effectively split the UK. It feels like the only person you've listened to is Barnier, and only interpret him literally.

Goods checks away from the border are fine - Barnier has said as much and suggested they happen down the Irish Sea.

That would mean a political union trumping national borders which will never wash (and why it was being suggested).

Most EU bound goods from Ireland transit the UK. So to get to the EU they will go via France and any other continental ports that show willing to process traffic without messing about. They "need" the infrastructure there anyway, and Eire goods are going through there anyway (assuming we don't penalise the use of our infrastructure...).

Of course that leaves Eire potentially exposed to chlorinated chicken, and Northern Ireland exposed to tariff free Choco Liebnitz if people decide to smuggle. But there are regulation arbitrage checks "on" that border already, and processes to check away from actual borders exist already to deter it. But in the overall scheme of things... Who will really care? IF the primary goal is preserving peace (I'm not saying it shouldn't be but am pretty much convinced it isn't the primary one) then surely that is a small price to pay?

The Irish Border has been a bargaining chip. The EU knew it from the off, and May has been more than happy to go along with it - the only person she's trusted/agreed with on Brexit is a died in the wool EU-phile. The Irish Border gives rationale to being so closely coupled to the EU that we may as well not have left. The select Committee videos, and the Specttaor link posted earlier, amongst most events since Chequers, clearly demonstrate this IMO.

Fortunately, thus far, she has been thwarted. I'm 50:50 on whether she will ultimately succeed, but her "deal" would be a disaster for this country. All the downsides and pretty much none of the upside for either ref option.
Let’s turn this around and point out that the national border is the one between Ireland and Northen Ireland. Let’s also point out that you cannot subject the Irish republic to checks between its self and France, they would be well with in their rights to tell you where to go. They are an independent sovereign state.

The only checks we have control of in this area are checks on stuff coming from the republic to NI. We are committed by the GFA to not have a border on the island of Ireland. So if WE want any control of goods coming to the main land we have to have checks as they either leave NI or as they entered the main land.

Trying to control the flow of goods between NI and the republic seems impossible while keeping to the GFA. If anyone has any answers please write to your MP.

The other thing to consider is that at the moment Ireland isn’t in Shengen. What happens if they decide to join? How should we control flows of people from the republic to the mainland without a border somewhere?
There already are checks between Ireland and France .. there is no freedom of movement for people
.. the GFA says nothing about the type of border or there not being a border, a border has existed since 1922 .. it guarantees the right to co-exist .. Ireland won’t join Shengen in a million years

How did the Irish Govt not breach the GFA when it completely closed to border and placed troops on it during the foot and mouth outbreak ?

Simon Coveney sensibly suggested that the border be moved, not to the Irish Sea, but the French border

To me this is eminently sensible

Dr Jekyll

23,820 posts

260 months

Tuesday 12th February 2019
quotequote all
jonnyb said:
As has been said many times both sides do not want a border in the island, but there must be a border. An EU parliament briefing note already states that smuggling between the two nations across this border is "considerable", and that's with both nations in a customs union. That smuggling will only increase even further when we leave the customs union. Hardly conducive to "taking back control".
What exactly is going to come across the border after we leave that isn't now, and what harm will it do?

turbobloke

103,742 posts

259 months

Tuesday 12th February 2019
quotequote all
Today's headline: "Ireland now fears EU could ABANDON Dublin to save Brussels from no deal"

O'Really?

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