How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 9)

[Atomic12C]

sunbeam alpine said:

.....a no-deal Brexit which resulted in tariffs in agriculture would cost me personally about €2500 per month,....

sunbeam alpine said:

A general question (if I may) to members who are supporting Brexit "at any cost" - how can you be so certain that you will not be personally affected by the UK crashing out?

Import or export tariffs ?

Generally speaking there are businesses in the UK that would benefit from WTO rules and the lower import tariffs on certain global products/services as a result.
It is also accepted that there will be UK businesses that export to the EU see export tariffs increase to the EU as a result of WTO rules.

So in a lot of people's minds it is a case of swings and roundabouts.

A lot of people I've spoken to who own businesses have mixed feelings about in-out, deal-no deal, and as each business is different the effects are different.
But on a pragmatic side of things many of them say that an impact of no deal brexit would although be harsh for some businesses, would also just be temporary until the UK and EU agree mutually beneficial trade deals in the following months/years. (The Article 50 deadline is just a deadline for the article and the legal process for UK withdrawal - it is not a deadline for any future trade deal with the EU).

Although the language from the EU has become more aggressive over the past few weeks, there is no reason why they would want to position the UK as an aggressive competitor to the EU. Because outside the EU the UK has full ability to play around with tariffs, regulations and policy to make the UK more attractive to the rest of the world than the EU for trade on selected products and services. In the view of some I've talked to they say the EU would wish to keep the UK 'close' and 'friendly'. And I guess the UK national interest is for similar.

Edit to add - To answer your question, I can not be certain there will be no personal financial or future prosperity effect on me, its impossible to tell without seeing in to the future. A clean cut may or may not allow the UK to be very prosperous. Similarly staying within the EU may or may not see the UK's future be prosperous. The ever closer union is a big concern for many. So from a personal point of view I can see the benefits and disadvantages of all the future directions currently on the table. It would be nice to leave with a deal in place, as this would remove the period between the 'crash out' and the future deals that would be done. But also 'crashing out' would free the UK instantly to deal with the rest of the world.
Remaining holds a few more uncertainty elements - depending on how the "ever closer union" goes, and how the EU decide to manage member's prosperity within the club.

Edited by Atomic12C on Friday 15th March 16:17

[citizensm1th]

B'stard Child said:

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Infinity..........................

Basically because Brexit will never happen

doubting thomas

[psi310398]

PurpleMoonlight said:

Are you little by any chance?

Seriously? I hold different, but not unreasonable, views from yours and your instinct is to make a jibe?

[Tony427]

sunbeam alpine said:

The level of support for a "Hard" Brexit on PH amazes me.

I posted a while back (vol 6 or 7, I think) that a no-deal Brexit which resulted in tariffs in agriculture would cost me personally about €2500 per month, and threaten 9 jobs at one of my UK-based suppliers. It would also put both my brother and sister-in-law's jobs in the UK under threat.

A general question (if I may) to members who are supporting Brexit "at any cost" - how can you be so certain that you will not be personally affected by the UK crashing out?

" Crashing out" . Steady On.

There was an interesting piece from Derby I believe on Sky where they asked a local businessman if he had done any Brexit planning. His reply was that they had started planning for Brexit, with a Deal, with no Deal and other various permutations as soon as the Referendum result was announced. His comment was

" If you as a business man haven't done all the planning required by now, you don't deserve to be in business."

This echoed my own experience where as soon as the Referendum result was announced I was in discussions with my European suppliers and negotiated valuable support. It's what business people do, react to changing circumstances.

Since then I have widened my supply chain and am now just about to launch a new product into the UK market, and into our existing customer base, supplied from the USA which by all acounts could quickly dwarf the sales of my European sourced product range whilst not being a competing product.

To some, the glass is half empty and about to be kicked over. To others, its made us get off our complacent h'arse ( I was guilty of this looking back ) and think about the future.

Disruption can be a great way to create new thinking and as a consequence, opportunities.

Cheers,

Tony.

[Jordan210]

I assume Mays deal will be passed by the DUP in return for a load of £££

[Robertj21a]

biggles330d said:

I'd love for this to be pushed to a General Election and the Lib Dems come riding in on a single issue policy of withdrawing A50 and abandoning Brexit altogether.

With near 50% of the population having voted to remain, which is a pretty clear and easy to understand concept, and 50% voting to exit but on a total rainbow of flavours that were never defined at the outset, have never been defined since and appear to be at the root of the current chaos as nobody can agree, from Hard Exit no deal to a deal based Exit as close to remaining as makes little difference apart from loosing the ability to influence anything but having some control of immigration.. the Lib Dems could walk a general election with a massive majority as the 'leave' vote was split between a disgruntled electorate who have lost all trust and faith in the Conservatives for creating this whole mess and the horror filled prospect of Corbyn riding in on his bicycle and loony left ideology putting the death nail into the country.

I'd vote Lib Dem every day of the week for that. They couldn't do much damage in 5 years and we'd rid ourselves of this curse of Brexit on a properly democratic decision... a General Election.

Careful, somebody might think that you are a Remainer, still desperately trying to get his own way........

.

[psi310398]

sunbeam alpine said:

The level of support for a "Hard" Brexit on PH amazes me.

I posted a while back (vol 6 or 7, I think) that a no-deal Brexit which resulted in tariffs in agriculture would cost me personally about €2500 per month, and threaten 9 jobs at one of my UK-based suppliers. It would also put both my brother and sister-in-law's jobs in the UK under threat.

A general question (if I may) to members who are supporting Brexit "at any cost" - how can you be so certain that you will not be personally affected by the UK crashing out?

I'm almost certain that it will end up costing me, especially as I own property in the EU. Indeed, it already has as I pay my bills and taxes there in Euros.

And, yes, some (subsidised/tariff protected) production sectors will suffer more than others in the same way that weaning junkies off heroin is never a pleasant experience. However, AIUI, there are plans in place to relieve pressures as adjustments are made. And lower tariffs, less price distortion and access to world-wide markets will help consumers immensely. It will even force EU producers to lower their prices if they wish to sell to the UK.

So, in the medium and longer term, I genuinely believe we're better off out of it. All of us.

[PurpleMoonlight]

psi310398 said:

Seriously? I hold different, but not unreasonable, views from yours and your instinct is to make a jibe?

It's the way I roll.

[JNW1]

JNW1 said:

ElectricSoup said:

They also have to be handled constitutionally. Ignorance of the constitution is no reason to ignore it. Right or wrong, it overrides political promises.

Which part of our constitution prevents Parliament from honouring its promise to uphold the outcome of the 2016 referendum?

From page 497 of the previous volume, the silence is deafening.....

[Alfa numeric]

crankedup said:

It makes no sense whatsoever, no matter how it’s dressed up a second referendum would be an affront to democracy. If remainers had won the referendum all this talk about another referendum would simply not exist. Be honest, you don’t like that the outcome of the referendum result.

If the WA had been agreed by all leave voters, if the 2017 election had resulted in a working majority for a single party and if we weren't 18 days away from the leave date there wouldn't be any calls for a referendum. A second referendum could result in a solid answer as to what "leave" looks like to the majority, something that isn't clear at present. It could also, of course, result in a vote for remain- although personally I doubt it would.

[Robertj21a]

Atomic12C said:

Import or export tariffs ?

Generally speaking there are businesses in the UK that would benefit from WTO rules and the lower import tariffs on certain global products/services as a result.
It is also accepted that there will be UK businesses that export to the EU see export tariffs increase to the EU as a result of WTO rules.

So in a lot of people's minds it is a case of swings and roundabouts.

A lot of people I've spoken to who own businesses have mixed feelings about in-out, deal-no deal, and as each business is different the effects are different.
But on a pragmatic side of things many of them say that an impact of no deal brexit would although be harsh for some businesses, would also just be temporary until the UK and EU agree mutually beneficial trade deals in the following months/years. (The Article 50 deadline is just a deadline for the article and the legal process for UK withdrawal - it is not a deadline for any future trade deal with the EU).

Although the language from the EU has become more aggressive over the past few weeks, there is no reason why they would want to position the UK as an aggressive competitor to the EU. Because outside the EU the UK has full ability to play around with tariffs, regulations and policy to make the UK more attractive to the rest of the world than the EU for trade on selected products and services. In the view of some I've talked to they say the EU would wish to keep the UK 'close' and 'friendly'. And I guess the UK national interest is for similar.

Edit to add - To answer your question, I can not be certain there will be no personal financial or future prosperity effect on me, its impossible to tell without seeing in to the future. A clean cut may or may not allow the UK to be very prosperous. Similarly staying within the EU may or may not see the UK's future be prosperous. The ever closer union is a big concern for many. So from a personal point of view I can see the benefits and disadvantages of all the future directions currently on the table. It would be nice to leave with a deal in place, as this would remove the period between the 'crash out' and the future deals that would be done. But also 'crashing out' would free the UK instantly to deal with the rest of the world.
Remaining holds a few more uncertainty elements - depending on how the "ever closer union" goes, and how the EU decide to manage member's prosperity within the club.

Edited by Atomic12C on Friday 15th March 16:17

Thanks for that, some interesting comments.

.

[don'tbesilly]

PurpleMoonlight said:

psi310398 said:

Seriously? I hold different, but not unreasonable, views from yours and your instinct is to make a jibe?

It's the way I roll.

That's funny, people have been reported to the Mods for far less and with tacit support from you. but you seem to think your post was reasonable and not a blatant insult because it's 'how you roll'.

You missed the post from Scrump at the top of the thread, or does it not apply to you?

Scrump said:

Remember to keep within the Posting Rules and stay away from posting offensive material or personal insults.

[ben5575]

mattmurdock said:

<snip>

Based on this, I absolutely believe that May's deal is the most pragmatic leave solution and that the backstop will be resolved some point down the line during the future negotiations, and that those people who are strictly opposed to that are doing so out of ideological reasons related to their personal hatred of the EU, rather than out of any logical assessment.

Just picking up on this general point (which I agree with btw)...

I've heard a couple of times now (the first from the shadow housing secretary (I think) after May Deal 2 and then again on R4 yesterday) that Labour aren't seeking to amend or renegotiate the WA at all, rather they are seeking additional text in the Political Declaration around staying the CU etc etc.

I was as surprised as Andrew Neil was when I first heard this in one of his interviews.

Is this widely known? I was under the impression that most people were under the impression that an extension and new negotiations would involve ripping up the WA and starting again, but it appears that that isn't the case after all.

Anybody else picked up on this?

[amusingduck]

sunbeam alpine said:

A general question (if I may) to members who are supporting Brexit "at any cost" - how can you be so certain that you will not be personally affected by the UK crashing out?

I voted expecting that it would affect me personally. I work in the automotive sector.

Perhaps I should rename to amusingturkey?

[B'stard Child]

wc98 said:

fking great , i have spent the last umpteen years arguing with all and sundry up here on the merits of continuing the union and now you fkers want to dump me and others like me and throw us to the wolves. bds

Slightly off topic now and also tongue in cheek but I really wonder why the SNP didn't lobby for a UK wide referendum on Scottish Independence - they would have easily won

[PurpleMoonlight]

don'tbesilly said:

Winge winge winge.

Feel free to report me if I have broken any rules.

Which volume was it you were banned from?

[B'stard Child]

psi310398 said:

PurpleMoonlight said:

Are you little by any chance?

Seriously? I hold different, but not unreasonable, views from yours and your instinct is to make a jibe?

He's always grumpy after he's just woke up and not had enough coffee

[ITP]

psi310398 said:

don'tbesilly said:

Yet the ERG will get the blame for voting down May's deal for the third time, because Cox is desperate to get the DUP onside, and then the ERG will follow suit.

I'll wager that if the deal gets voted down by the ERG/DUP, the media will then blame same for it all falling to pieces.

Or credit.

The WA is pretty universally seen as a turd. And full membership is clearly preferable to colony status.

I were ERG, I'd rather remain (revoke A50) and cause trouble from within than sign up indefinitely to the provisions of the WA and associated bits of paper. There's nothing stopping the running of a 'treason of the clerks' campaign and going for Brexit again after a GE, possibly in coalition with TBP. It took the best part of 50 years to get the last referendum - taking another ten and causing Brussels any amount of problems in the meantime does not seem terribly unattractive, compared to the WA.

And whatever happens, including a clean departure on the 29th, there will be unfinished business. Better to have open options than closed ones IMV.

This is right. The worst thing that can happen is the current EU deal (I refuse to call it May’s deal, because it isn’t) to be forced through. The ERG need to hold their nerve and stick to their principles of actually leaving. The DUP however may well be bribed with cash.

It would be much better to stay in then have an election in a couple of years once a new party can be formed and go again from there. Let’s face it, if the current government, and the opposition will be decimated at the next election due to their skulduggery, this is obvious.
Look what happened to the Lib Dem’s just for going back on a promise about tuition fees.......

[sunbeam alpine]

Atomic12C said:

Import or export tariffs ?

I'm importing from the UK into the EU, so I guess it's the EU import tariffs. Based on what I can find on the net, even the lowest levels of tariff (11%) would probably kill the activity.

[JNW1]

sunbeam alpine said:

The level of support for a "Hard" Brexit on PH amazes me.

I posted a while back (vol 6 or 7, I think) that a no-deal Brexit which resulted in tariffs in agriculture would cost me personally about €2500 per month, and threaten 9 jobs at one of my UK-based suppliers. It would also put both my brother and sister-in-law's jobs in the UK under threat.

A general question (if I may) to members who are supporting Brexit "at any cost" - how can you be so certain that you will not be personally affected by the UK crashing out?

Can only speak for myself but when I voted leave I did so in the belief a mutually beneficial deal could be struck between the UK and the EU; not a deal that gave the UK all the benefits of membership without being a member but something that was in the best interests of both parties.

However, I was nevertheless aware we could end-up in a No Deal scenario and hence my expectation was our government would plan adequately for that eventuality; in fact, I'd have expected them to plan for that if for no other reason than to demonstrate to the EU that we would be leaving with or without a deal (which may have in turn focused the EU's mind on agreeing something acceptable to the UK).

Regardless of whether we left with or without a deal I was under no illusions that it could have an adverse affect economically and that was the one reason why I hovered around whether or not to vote remain. However, on balance I decided our medium and long-term future was better out of the EU (I don't support the vision of ever closer political union and integration) so I voted leave.

Therefore, despite what a lot of remainders suggest, I knew there were potential adverse consequences to my vote and in my view we should now be leaving with No Deal at the end of this month but in a planned and orderly way. The fact we're worried about "crashing out" is in my view entirely a consequence of the way the government and Parliament have handled the whole exit process (and it's a worry that was avoidable IMO).