How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 9)

How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 9)

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Digga

40,207 posts

282 months

Monday 25th March 2019
quotequote all
Elysium said:
The Brexit on offer now is not the one that was sold to the electorate. The electorate deserve a chance to decide if they want it.

Brexit is an utter mess.
No deal is still there and an awful lot of people were and are happy with that as a solution to leaving.

ElectricSoup

8,202 posts

150 months

Monday 25th March 2019
quotequote all
Digga said:
Elysium said:
The Brexit on offer now is not the one that was sold to the electorate. The electorate deserve a chance to decide if they want it.

Brexit is an utter mess.
No deal is still there and an awful lot of people were and are happy with that as a solution to leaving.
Prove it's a majority of the electorate. If only there was some way to measure this...

I think you probably meant "a lot of awful people" though.

psi310398

9,037 posts

202 months

Monday 25th March 2019
quotequote all
Digga said:
o deal is still there and an awful lot of people were and are happy with that as a solution to leaving.
Quite.

This is worth a read, although it will, of course, be dismissed out of hand by some here simply because of where it is published:

https://brexitcentral.com/no-deal-way-seize-freedo...

FWIW, I can't see much wrong with the logic in it.

johnxjsc1985

15,948 posts

163 months

Monday 25th March 2019
quotequote all
Remain MP's and supporters are really getting anxious now. The lady just on SKY news looked fit to explode she was in a really bad mood.
The EU are now ready for a no deal on the 12th April and if we don't go back with a plan basically to remain we are out they have had enough.
Indicative Votes won't indicate anything other than the MP's all have their own ideas and will not find any majority .
Its the PM's deal, No Deal or the EU enforcing leave.

ElectricSoup

8,202 posts

150 months

Monday 25th March 2019
quotequote all
psi310398 said:
Digga said:
o deal is still there and an awful lot of people were and are happy with that as a solution to leaving.
Quite.

This is worth a read, although it will, of course, be dismissed out of hand by some here simply because of where it is published:

https://brexitcentral.com/no-deal-way-seize-freedo...

FWIW, I can't see much wrong with the logic in it.
And again, if only there was some way of testing there's a majority in favour in the country.

You wouldn't want a minority policy implemented, would you?

"Seize freedom". snigger. What idiots.

TEKNOPUG

18,844 posts

204 months

Monday 25th March 2019
quotequote all
Andy20vt said:
ELUSIVEJIM said:
Fittster said:
Made up figure? £350 million for the NHS each week?
Once we leave you will find out.
Just Hahahahahahahahahahahaha!laugh

£350 million a week is £18.2 billion pounds per year.

Our net UK payment into the EU is £8.9 billion pounds a year.

I'll leave you to work out just how wrong you are.

Again, Hahahahahahahahahahahaha!laugh
OK, lets work out how wrong you are together:

2016 Gross EU payment = 18.9bn
2016 Rebate = 5bn
2016 EU Funded Public Sector credits = 4.9bn
2016 Net Payment = 9.9bn

Rebates are scheduled to be removed in 2021
The EU Funded Public Sector credits are not spent on the NHS

So from 2021:

2021 Gross EU payment = 18.9bn
2021 Rebate = 0bn
2021 EU Funded Public Sector credits = 4.9bn
2021 Net Payment = 15.9bn

Post Brexit the figures for 2021 would be:

2021 Gross EU payment = 0bn
2021 Rebate = 0bn
2021 EU Funded Public Sector credits = 0bn
2021 Net Saving = 18.9bn

18.9bn / 52 weeks = 363m

So there is nothing wrong with the numbers. Whether the money will actually be spent on the NHS is a different matter.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-rebat...

amusingduck

9,396 posts

135 months

Monday 25th March 2019
quotequote all
ElectricSoup said:
Prove it's a majority of the electorate. If only there was some way to measure this...

I think you probably meant "a lot of awful people" though.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum

You have better proof that Remain is now the majority? (rhetorical)

Or will you instead argue that the referendum isn't proof of anything, and we should have another referendum that mysteriously will be proof this time around[*]

rotate

* assuming Remain win

Digga

40,207 posts

282 months

Monday 25th March 2019
quotequote all
ElectricSoup said:
psi310398 said:
Digga said:
o deal is still there and an awful lot of people were and are happy with that as a solution to leaving.
Quite.

This is worth a read, although it will, of course, be dismissed out of hand by some here simply because of where it is published:

https://brexitcentral.com/no-deal-way-seize-freedo...

FWIW, I can't see much wrong with the logic in it.
And again, if only there was some way of testing there's a majority in favour in the country.

You wouldn't want a minority policy implemented, would you?

"Seize freedom". snigger. What idiots.
The question asking in 2016 was simply remain or leave.

We all already voted.

What is interesting is how people assume evens like this should be neat, tidy and completely pre-planned whereas, in history, most defining events are anything but. History is only clearly defined in retrospect. As much as anything here, we are seeing the ignorance of this, combined with a very real fear of change.

ElectricSoup

8,202 posts

150 months

Monday 25th March 2019
quotequote all
amusingduck said:
ElectricSoup said:
Prove it's a majority of the electorate. If only there was some way to measure this...

I think you probably meant "a lot of awful people" though.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum

You have better proof that Remain is now the majority? (rhetorical)

Or will you instead argue that the referendum isn't proof of anything, and we should have another referendum that mysteriously will be proof this time around[*]

rotate

* assuming Remain win
No, I have no proof Remain is now the majority. Of course I fking don't. That's the whole point. But given so much has changed, public opinion may well have done too.

It's really not hard and there's only one way to tell.

Anyway, I'd rather not have a referendum. I'd rather A50 was revoked.

Robertj21a

16,475 posts

104 months

Monday 25th March 2019
quotequote all
Andy20vt said:
Zigster said:
Earthdweller said:
My sources tell me

Met estimate :200k
LFB estimate :450k
“My sources” ... rofl

That’s really convincing. Either they are credible sources and you can name them, or they aren’t credible.
Who really gives an F how many there were? Even if it's the much lower Brexiteers spun 200k estimate, that's still in the region of 2,000 times the number who tuned up for Nigels sorry little pub crawl the other day.

And why do the Brexiteers comment on this anyway? On one hand they claim they don't care about the march, it means nothing apparently. On the other hand they try to belittle it because they see it as a threat.

So which one is it? Do you care or not care, because if you don't care as you claim the march seems to have done a bl*ody good job of winding you right up?
More interestingly, why do you continue to prattle on about it ?. I don't care how many went on a fruitless march and I don't understand why any Leavers should be interested in a silly numbers game.

Fittster

20,120 posts

212 months

Monday 25th March 2019
quotequote all
TEKNOPUG said:
Andy20vt said:
ELUSIVEJIM said:
Fittster said:
Made up figure? £350 million for the NHS each week?
Once we leave you will find out.
Just Hahahahahahahahahahahaha!laugh

£350 million a week is £18.2 billion pounds per year.

Our net UK payment into the EU is £8.9 billion pounds a year.

I'll leave you to work out just how wrong you are.

Again, Hahahahahahahahahahahaha!laugh
OK, lets work out how wrong you are together:

2016 Gross EU payment = 18.9bn
2016 Rebate = 5bn
2016 EU Funded Public Sector credits = 4.9bn
2016 Net Payment = 9.9bn

Rebates are scheduled to be removed in 2021
The EU Funded Public Sector credits are not spent on the NHS

So from 2021:

2021 Gross EU payment = 18.9bn
2021 Rebate = 0bn
2021 EU Funded Public Sector credits = 4.9bn
2021 Net Payment = 15.9bn

Post Brexit the figures for 2021 would be:

2021 Gross EU payment = 0bn
2021 Rebate = 0bn
2021 EU Funded Public Sector credits = 0bn
2021 Net Saving = 18.9bn

18.9bn / 52 weeks = 363m

So there is nothing wrong with the numbers. Whether the money will actually be spent on the NHS is a different matter.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-rebat...
Those figures are nonsense.

The rely on UK simply giving up on its rebate, as suggest by a single Eurocrate. Why would the UK agree to that?

Oakey

27,523 posts

215 months

Monday 25th March 2019
quotequote all
For those that wish to revoke article 50, how do you imagine our membership of the EU continuing? Do you see the EU shrugging their shoulders and saying "we'll forget 2016 ever happened" and things simply going back to they were pre-2016?


psi310398

9,037 posts

202 months

Monday 25th March 2019
quotequote all
ElectricSoup said:
And again, if only there was some way of testing there's a majority in favour in the country.

You wouldn't want a minority policy implemented, would you?

"Seize freedom". snigger. What idiots.
It was. It's called the Referendum.

No, I wouldn't want a minority policy implemented, which is why I'm against the options being considered by Parliament.

snigger away. You do accept that if you accord yourself the right to the dismissive tone you take, you can't really complain if others who disagree with you don't accord much respect to your, doubtless, sincerely held opinions?

ElectricSoup

8,202 posts

150 months

Monday 25th March 2019
quotequote all
Oakey said:
For those that wish to revoke article 50, how do you imagine our membership of the EU continuing? Do you see the EU shrugging their shoulders and saying "we'll forget 2016 ever happened" and things simply going back to they were pre-2016?
Yes, because that's exactly what they've said can happen. Also part of the A50 revocability Court ruling.

anonymous-user

53 months

Monday 25th March 2019
quotequote all
TEKNOPUG said:
OK, lets work out how wrong you are together:

2016 Gross EU payment = 18.9bn
2016 Rebate = 5bn
2016 EU Funded Public Sector credits = 4.9bn
2016 Net Payment = 9.9bn

Rebates are scheduled to be removed in 2021
The EU Funded Public Sector credits are not spent on the NHS

So from 2021:

2021 Gross EU payment = 18.9bn
2021 Rebate = 0bn
2021 EU Funded Public Sector credits = 4.9bn
2021 Net Payment = 15.9bn

Post Brexit the figures for 2021 would be:

2021 Gross EU payment = 0bn
2021 Rebate = 0bn
2021 EU Funded Public Sector credits = 0bn
2021 Net Saving = 18.9bn

18.9bn / 52 weeks = 363m

So there is nothing wrong with the numbers. Whether the money will actually be spent on the NHS is a different matter.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-rebat...
Errrr you have distorted the figures somewhat there and also assumed that the UK decides to backtrack and remain in the EU. The removal of our rebate was only ever an opinion stated by EU official Günther Oettinger, it is not yet and probably would never be EU Policy. You have also assumed sneakily that the 4.9 billion credit would also not have to be made up for from general taxation or alternatively that the public would have to fund a significant portion of that 350million a week directly from their pay packets.

Brexiteer using smoke and mirrors to prove a point - who'd have thought!

psi310398

9,037 posts

202 months

Monday 25th March 2019
quotequote all
Fittster said:
Those figures are nonsense.

The rely on UK simply giving up on its rebate, as suggest by a single Eurocrate. Why would the UK agree to that?
You have an astonishing, and IMV completely unjustified, faith in our rulers' ability not to part the UK's metaphorical bumcheeks at any and every behest of the EU'ssmile.

anonymous-user

53 months

Monday 25th March 2019
quotequote all
Oakey said:
For those that wish to revoke article 50, how do you imagine our membership of the EU continuing? Do you see the EU shrugging their shoulders and saying "we'll forget 2016 ever happened" and things simply going back to they were pre-2016?
That is exactly what the EU hope we will do. They want us to be a part of it. We have been the ones being stand offish over the years.

psi310398

9,037 posts

202 months

Monday 25th March 2019
quotequote all
Andy20vt said:
That is exactly what the EU hope we will do. They want us to be a part of it. We have been the ones being stand offish over the years.
Assume that we do hold elections for the Euro Parliament later this year.

How many of the 73 MEPs returned from the UK are likely to making common cause with Orban, Salvini and all the other Eurosceptics? And they'd be voting with their mates to shape the new Commission.

My guess is a bloc of around 40-45 and Farage will look like a Lib Dem compared to some..

Why would Juncker and Tusk et al want that? I think the penny might be dropping that, longer term, the EU is far better off without the UK. The short-term financing might be a bit problematic, though.

Nickgnome

8,277 posts

88 months

Monday 25th March 2019
quotequote all
Oakey said:
For those that wish to revoke article 50, how do you imagine our membership of the EU continuing? Do you see the EU shrugging their shoulders and saying "we'll forget 2016 ever happened" and things simply going back to they were pre-2016?
The ECJ has already ruled in this regard. I recommend you read the ruling.

andymadmak

14,483 posts

269 months

Monday 25th March 2019
quotequote all
Andy20vt said:
That is exactly what the EU hope we will do. They want us to be a part of it. We have been the ones being stand offish over the years.
I tried politely asking H123 this question yesterday, but sadly he declined to give any meaningful answer, so perhaps you might share your thoughts on the following?:

Assuming that there were to be a second referendum, what kind of Remain are you anticipating (FTR, H123 response was that he was happy with the Thatcher/Major negotiated deal - the deal that no longer actually exists!) Specifically I am eager to understand whether you want to Remain based on the pre June 2016 being preserved in perpetuity or whether you would prefer to see a Remain vote, followed by an ever closer harmonisation and integration of the UK into the EU over the next (say) 20 years? If you're voting for Remain in Ref2, what are you voting for exactly?
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