How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 10)

[soupdragon1]

slow_poke said:

JuanCarlosFandango said:

Gareth1974 said:

I’m struggling to see how something better than May’s deal can be found, unless we have the “border in the Irish Sea” which will never be acceptable to Unionists, or go against the Good Friday agreement, and have some kind of border arrangement between N.I. and the Republic of Ireland.

The Customs Union idea that seems to be gathering momentum would largely prevent the N.I. issue/need for the backstop that we requested, but gives us less freedom than May’s plan.

We could simply have an open border. I don't see any problem with that politically in Britain or in Ireland, from the little I know of Irish politics. We have had free travel for decades, neither of us are in Schengen and neither are drastically cheap or full of would be immigrants desperate to cross. By simple geography it's hard to imagine hordes of shoppers from the continent flooding up to Northern Ireland via the Republic to load up on American chlorinated chicken or £10 a pack B&H, or an army of illegal migrants preferring to go via Dublin.

So just keep the border as it is.

Accept that a few people a few miles either side will border hop for fuel etc, and get on with it.

The best I've been able to get from Remainers is that the EU has to have customs checks to protect its single market, though nobody seems to know from what. Or a vague possibility that the EU may in future lodge a complaint with the WTO to tackle some as yet unspecified issue relating to its customs procedures. Usually followed by a petulant reminder that it was Leave who wanted border controls so we couldn't possibly have an open border with Ireland. To which a Leaver might well respond that it's the EU that wanted peace, cooperation and open borders in Europe so it's a bit rich to now demand a border.

The fact that the obvious, elegant and zero effort idea has barely been discussed makes me fairly sure that these "negotiations" have been a sham from day one and the whole withdrawal agreement is no more than a diversion to make us either remain in the EU or lock us in to all the significant parts of the project while giving us blue passports and a few other tokens to keep those old duffers happy until the new generation of Europhile internationalists takes over. A dangerous delusion, but exactly the sort of dangerous delusion power mad dictators fall for.

I don't think it's quite that simple somehow. If it was, we'd be Brexited by now.

Absolutely. If anyone wants the reason, I'll post this link again, it will take about 10 mins to read, but will help with understanding.

https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2019/...

[soupdragon1]

Double post...

[B'stard Child]

Robertj21a said:

B'stard Child said:

It's never going to happen so the answer is infinity as the discussion will keep rolling round perhaps dying sometimes to be resurrected every decade by a teenager studying the period and asking a question of a long since dead member

Please not the death of any member on here is not something I want to happen it's just a fact of life

Just interested - how do you ask a question of a long since dead member ?

Maybe I described it badly - Picture the scene - teenager researching a period of time when the government of the UK was totally deadlocked buy an attempt to leave the European Superstate - he amazon searches "no deal is better than a bad deal" and finds the quote in an old form of discussion media called a forum. He joins and the hamsters let him in - he's immediately elevated to 100 month status because no one new has joined in 50 years and he bumps the post hoping to learn something from the OP

Budgie posts "true patriot" in response

[alfie2244]

Max_Torque said:

Have we given the £350M to the NHS yet?? #startlikeyoumeantogoon ;-)

We haven't left yet

[wc98]

Robertj21a said:

Just interested - how do you ask a question of a long since dead member ?

my father once told me he asked a question of a dead member after his prostrate cancer surgery, apparently the answer was viagra of some sort

[alfie2244]

B'stard Child said:

Robertj21a said:

B'stard Child said:

It's never going to happen so the answer is infinity as the discussion will keep rolling round perhaps dying sometimes to be resurrected every decade by a teenager studying the period and asking a question of a long since dead member

Please not the death of any member on here is not something I want to happen it's just a fact of life

Just interested - how do you ask a question of a long since dead member ?

Maybe I described it badly - Picture the scene - teenager researching a period of time when the government of the UK was totally deadlocked buy an attempt to leave the European Superstate - he amazon searches "no deal is better than a bad deal" and finds the quote in an old form of discussion media called a forum. He joins and the hamsters let him in - he's immediately elevated to 100 month status because no one new has joined in 50 years and he bumps the post hoping to learn something from the OP

Budgie posts "true patriot" in response

Good post.

[anonymous-user]

Max_Torque said:

Have we given the £350M to the NHS yet?? #startlikeyoumeantogoon ;-)

We didn't leave on the 29th of March 2019 with no deal so it's being spent on the EU elections.

[JuanCarlosFandango]

slow_poke said:

I don't think it's quite that simple somehow. If it was, we'd be Brexited by now.

Quite possibly not, but nobody has been able to explain why.

[anonymous-user]

psi310398 said:

Well, if I understand the application of Remainer rules and Diane Abbot maths, that makes Budgie the internet police, doesn't it?

It's clear that Diane is involved in the remain polls.

1+1=20.

[B'stard Child]

alfie2244 said:

B'stard Child said:

Robertj21a said:

B'stard Child said:

It's never going to happen so the answer is infinity as the discussion will keep rolling round perhaps dying sometimes to be resurrected every decade by a teenager studying the period and asking a question of a long since dead member

Please not the death of any member on here is not something I want to happen it's just a fact of life

Just interested - how do you ask a question of a long since dead member ?

Maybe I described it badly - Picture the scene - teenager researching a period of time when the government of the UK was totally deadlocked buy an attempt to leave the European Superstate - he amazon searches "no deal is better than a bad deal" and finds the quote in an old form of discussion media called a forum. He joins and the hamsters let him in - he's immediately elevated to 100 month status because no one new has joined in 50 years and he bumps the post hoping to learn something from the OP

Budgie posts "true patriot" in response

Good post.

As in "Good Post" or as in "Good Post but meaning Bad Post"

This forum gets more confusing as time goes on

[Gareth1974]

Carl_Manchester said:

re: customs union.

The EU have rejected the idea previously of a customs union without free movement.

Labour can point the fingers but this is a circular discussion where the UK can’t dictate the terms and I think this is why talks have broken down.

Three years of negotiations behind the scenes and i cant believe this is where we are, pointless attempts at point scoring against at a PM who has the best deal on the table and it’s take it or leave it time.

I don’t like the deal either but it was clear from the start that the EU would not negotiate. It’s a shame but EU politics died in 2016.

I believe you can have a ‘brake’ on freedom of movement in a customs union, which is something Cameron failed to negotiate prior to the referendum.

To be fair to the EU, the deal they’ve offer May met all of her ‘red lines’ and is consistent with the tories election manifesto.

The backstop we asked for is the stumbling block, even though the chances of being trapped in it are slight.

Edited by Gareth1974 on Friday 5th April 19:39

[bitchstewie]

This made me laugh as it shows just how mistrusting everyone is.

Faisal Islam on Twitter said:

Labour sources separately highly suspicious about the total lack of Cabinet resignations that would be expected if PM serious about softer/ CU style compromise

[don'tbesilly]

Max_Torque said:

Have we given the £350M to the NHS yet?? #startlikeyoumeantogoon ;-)

Not yet no, but then again the UK hasn't left the EU it's running a week late, come back in 2025 and ask again.

[egor110]

ELUSIVEJIM said:

psi310398 said:

Well, if I understand the application of Remainer rules and Diane Abbot maths, that makes Budgie the internet police, doesn't it?

It's clear that Diane is involved in the remain polls.

1+1=20.

Imagine if she was negotiating with the eu !

[psi310398]

Gareth1974 said:

I believe you can have a ‘brake’ on freedom of movement in a customs union, which is something Cameron failed to negotiate prior to the referendum.

To be fair to the EU, the deal they’ve offer May met all of her ‘red lines’ and is consistent with the tories election manifesto.

The backstop we asked for is the stumbling block, even though the chances of being trapped in it are slight.

Edited by Gareth1974 on Friday 5th April 19:39

The backstop is being sold as an insurance policy - a holding position, pending a long-term deal and we are told that we really should not get too hung up about it.

But as the EU is now saying it is a pre-condition for a deal (in the event that leave without a WA) then that rather confirms what Leavers suspected - it is simply a device to strong-arm the UK into submission, nothing more and nothing less.

They are also demanding the full £39 bn regardless, despite it explicitly being tied to an agreement.

So we know now exactly what they are really interested in.

[alfie2244]

egor110 said:

ELUSIVEJIM said:

psi310398 said:

Well, if I understand the application of Remainer rules and Diane Abbot maths, that makes Budgie the internet police, doesn't it?

It's clear that Diane is involved in the remain polls.

1+1=20.

Imagine if she was negotiating with the eu !

I heard she's going on the new £49 note.

[don'tbesilly]

egor110 said:

ELUSIVEJIM said:

psi310398 said:

Well, if I understand the application of Remainer rules and Diane Abbot maths, that makes Budgie the internet police, doesn't it?

It's clear that Diane is involved in the remain polls.

1+1=20.

Imagine if she was negotiating with the eu !

Is it possible she could do any worse than May, although Di would probably give the EU £93 Billion

[JuanCarlosFandango]

soupdragon1 said:

Absolutely. If anyone wants the reason, I'll post this link again, it will take about 10 mins to read, but will help with understanding.

https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2019/...

Nope. It's mind bogglingly simple. There is no good reason to put up a hard border and very good reasons not to. Yes there are some risks as the article sets out, but they are relatively trivial.

[ClaphamGT3]

ELUSIVEJIM said:

We didn't leave on the 29th of March 2019 with no deal so it's being spent on the EU elections.

And so the Brexiteer excuses for their lies begin...

[B'stard Child]

bhstewie said:

This made me laugh as it shows just how mistrusting everyone is.

Faisal Islam on Twitter said:

Labour sources separately highly suspicious about the total lack of Cabinet resignations that would be expected if PM serious about softer/ CU style compromise

So

Labour don’t trust the Conservatives motives for involving them in discussions

Half of the labour party don’t trust the shadow cabinet to convince the electorate to put them into power

The Conservatives don’t trust their leadership not to fk it all up or each other for that matter

Probably 90% of the electorate don’t trust politicisns to do anything

And 75% of the electorate don’t trust the bankers not to fk up the whole world again

It would only be more fked up if 98% of the adult population trusted Gary Glitter to baby sit their kids and Harold Shipman to look after their gran