How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 10)

How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 10)

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A Winner Is You

24,942 posts

226 months

Tuesday 21st May 2019
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Still doesn't look like Labour will vote for it

https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1130878505...

And then she

4,399 posts

124 months

Tuesday 21st May 2019
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Scootersp said:
Common sense says that the current agreements like insurance, aviation etc carry on as normal. I accept they no longer have to and there is a limbo effectively between the present and what's to come, but really being immediately picky at 00.01 hours from 'leaving' benefits no one?

Ok two sides/governments would be battling it out so that they try and come out better than the other side but meanwhile all us individuals just want to carry on as normal, and utilising the current rules would make that happen, smooth the transition. I believe there is little will among individuals to stick to the EU member citizens and see no reason to suspect the average Joe in Spain/France/German wants us to go to a special place in hell?

This will probably get labelled 'unicorn' thinking but ultimately, the battles around other issues can happen thereafter, EU potentially want to replace some of our contribution somehow and fair enough we can't be allowed to 100% take advance of our new found position? but all the talk of disruption of medical supplies etc just smacks of officialdom playing games to some extent.....
Herein lies the problem with the gung-ho "let's just leave now and we'll sort out the details later" No Deal Brexit, and why it can't (and won't!) be allowed to happen.

wisbech

2,939 posts

120 months

Tuesday 21st May 2019
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Scootersp said:
But if they don't cover the customer then after the partial premium refund they aren't offering an business so yes reduce their risk of payout but equally reduce their own turnover? Counter productive no?

The arrangements needed are common sense, neither side gains much in a year or two of 'as you were' everyone, everyone stands to lose from red tape for red tapes sake.
Which is the basis of the WA (two years of as you were). That we aren’t passing. Common sense left the House of Commons some time ago

s2art

18,937 posts

252 months

Tuesday 21st May 2019
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Mrr T said:
If you are suggesting you are visiting the US on a visitor visa but doing some work while you are there then you are breaching US law. You need a work visa to work even for1 day. Do you remember Top Gear where stopped from filming.
Nope. The visa waiver program allows up to 90 days.

Fittster

20,120 posts

212 months

Tuesday 21st May 2019
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Leicester Loyal said:
paulrockliffe said:
Norfolkit said:
How low can she go, I don't think there's anything she won't do to to get her retarded deal through. She's going to destroy the Tories if thery're not careful, she needs to be shown the door tonight.
It's already finished, they'll not recover from this now.
Too right. Millions will never vote for the Tories again.
Yes, they will. They are too tribal to vote for anyone else.

Vanden Saab

13,889 posts

73 months

Tuesday 21st May 2019
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wisbech said:
Scootersp said:
Common sense says that the current agreements like insurance, aviation etc carry on as normal. I accept they no longer have to and there is a limbo effectively between the present and what's to come, but really being immediately picky at 00.01 hours from 'leaving' benefits no one?
Yes, but that needs an agreement - to agree to carry on with such arrangements even if in a legal limbo, or to remove the legal limbo.

It benefits an insurance company that no longer has to pay out x million in the event of an incident.

Yes, the whole point behind the WA is to continue using current rules to smooth out the transition while we agree on the long term rules, but HOC have voted it down, and it has been denounced as BRINO.

Edited by wisbech on Tuesday 21st May 17:54
  • sighs
gov website said:
Driving in other countries
Outside the EU, a ‘green card’ proves that your insurance covers the minimum cover in the country you’re driving in. Ask your insurance company if they can issue you with one.

alfie2244

11,292 posts

187 months

Tuesday 21st May 2019
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Fittster said:
Leicester Loyal said:
paulrockliffe said:
Norfolkit said:
How low can she go, I don't think there's anything she won't do to to get her retarded deal through. She's going to destroy the Tories if thery're not careful, she needs to be shown the door tonight.
It's already finished, they'll not recover from this now.
Too right. Millions will never vote for the Tories again.
Yes, they will. They are too tribal to vote for anyone else.
Seems like a woman scorned going through the wardrobe and cutting holes in all of the soon to be ex's clothes.

wc98

10,334 posts

139 months

Tuesday 21st May 2019
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jb2410 said:
BBC reporting MPs will now get a vote on a second referendum if May’s withdrawal agreement is voted through.

'One last chance' to get Brexit done, says PM https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48357017
that is exactly what i was expecting. tories and labour have cut a deal on a second referendum while pretending to have fallen out without agreement during recent talks. they can't acknowledge the second referendum is something they came up with together for fear of alienating their support so they just lie instead.

plenty predicted something like this, on here and in the press, so it shouldn't come as asurprise to anyone. the big two are in full on arse saving mode due to the groth in support of the brexit party and now nothing else matters bar maintaining as much of the status quo as possible to them both.

the next general election is going to be really interesting.

wisbech

2,939 posts

120 months

Tuesday 21st May 2019
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s2art said:
Mrr T said:
If you are suggesting you are visiting the US on a visitor visa but doing some work while you are there then you are breaching US law. You need a work visa to work even for1 day. Do you remember Top Gear where stopped from filming.
Nope. The visa waiver program allows up to 90 days.
For business, not work. There’s a difference, and a list of permitted activities that count as business rather than work.

Ie Top Gear were not on a business trip to US, they were working in the US.

For example - you can go to a conference or attend sales meetings. But you can’t go work in a bar for a couple of months.




Edited by wisbech on Tuesday 21st May 18:19

wisbech

2,939 posts

120 months

Tuesday 21st May 2019
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Vanden Saab said:
Cheers! Didn’t know that - thanks for the info

philv

3,911 posts

213 months

Tuesday 21st May 2019
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Either a 2nd referendum is justified or not.
It shouldn’t be a bribe to get May’s deal through.
Absolutely vile manipulative woman.
Sick and tied of this.

anonymous-user

53 months

Tuesday 21st May 2019
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best of three

best of five

etc..

We know we will end up staying in.

anonymous-user

53 months

Tuesday 21st May 2019
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Not a bad deal as a remainer. However Mr Johnson & co could scupper it right? So I doubt it will bribe enough of the opposition over..

chrispmartha

15,356 posts

128 months

Tuesday 21st May 2019
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If I was a Leaver I’d be championing a 2nd referendum, I reckon Leave would win hands down.


psi310398

9,036 posts

202 months

Tuesday 21st May 2019
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Crackie said:
10-20 years?

And, interestingly, if weighting for population, all the big populations (except Spain's) are over 50%, some well over.

Tuna

19,930 posts

283 months

Tuesday 21st May 2019
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Squiddly Diddly said:
I thought the 'managed' part referred to stuff like aircraft until the UK is in a position to assume responsibility. WTO is just trade.
Yes, and the government has been making so called 'mini-agreements' covering stuff like aircraft, medicines, visas and driving permits for the last nine months or so. That is the 'managed' part and doesn't need anything written into a withdrawal agreement. You don't do a deal to have no deal.

That's not to say it's plain sailing, and I believe there is backlog of the legislation parliament would need to pass to be legally ready for no deal. We'd need to 'roll over' various agreements into UK law as they're currently made through the EU. Equally, the problems for things like medicine companies based in the UK supplying into the EU are quite real - they'd have to re-apply for permits for their products. Interestingly though, this was one of the areas the German Economic Institute picked out as a huge opportunity for growth in the event of No Deal as the current tariff regimes are apparently quite restrictive for pharmaceutical companies. Not my area though, so I've not got much information on that.

But the idea that no preparations have been done, or that we need to negotiate with the EU in order to be able to leave with No Deal is obviously untrue.



wisbech

2,939 posts

120 months

Tuesday 21st May 2019
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Jimboka said:
Not a bad deal as a remainer. However Mr Johnson & co could scupper it right? So I doubt it will bribe enough of the opposition over..
Brexit: Has PM's 'new deal' made things worse? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48359132

Utterly bizarre. She’s throwing carrots at Labour that they will be happy to ignore while she burninates her own party- meanwhile those carrots will peel off more Tories from the WA.

loafer123

15,404 posts

214 months

Tuesday 21st May 2019
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In the same way that the wider population can see the WA is as attractive as a soiled nappy, they can also see the fundamental flaws in the EU which will likely result in its collapse.

The reforms needed to avoid this collapse are too unpalatable for the people to accept.

Red Devil

13,055 posts

207 months

Tuesday 21st May 2019
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Elysium said:
So Farage is still selling a version of no-deal / WTO rules that fullfact suggest is 'very unlikely' to be achievable:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47216870

https://fullfact.org/europe/article-24/

More bait and switch?

Meanwhile Hammond is one of the few Tories honest enough to call out those who are trying to force a no-deal departure based on the 2016 result:

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-par...

Hammond said:
On the populist Right, there are those who claim the only outcome that counts as a truly legitimate Brexit is to leave with no deal.

Let me remind them – the 2016 Leave campaign was clear that we would leave with a deal.

So to advocate for no deal is to hijack the result of the referendum, and in doing so, knowingly to inflict damage on our economy and living standards, because all the preparation in the world will not avoid the consequences of no deal.
Re your second link,this caught my eye.

Article said:
Dr Liam Fox, the Secretary of State for International Trade, said in the House of Commons on January 14: “There are two immediate problems facing that suggestion. The first is that it would require the agreement of the EU and be based on the expectation of a future trade agreement or customs union to be operable in WTO law. Although it might be argued, as I am sure many in the House [of Commons] would, that that would be in the economic interests of the EU27, we all know from experience that the politics of the EU can take precedence over economic pragmatism. In the political atmosphere of no deal, it would be difficult to cultivate the good will necessary for that to proceed. Secondly, that suggestion would not deal with all the regulatory issues—the non-tariff barriers—that are so important to many businesses.”
This is the elephant in the room with the EU. The project and its institutions are so dominant that wisdom takes a back seat.
https://mosaicprojects.wordpress.com/tag/rules-are...
If the EU can't, or won't, reform itself it will crumble like a house of cards.
Being inside when it does won't be pretty. Being outside won't either but it's the lesser of two evils.

Mark Blyth talks a lot of sense but nobody in Brussels seems to be listening.

jb2410 said:
BBC reporting MPs will now get a vote on a second referendum if May’s withdrawal agreement is voted through.

'One last chance' to get Brexit done, says PM https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48357017
I wondered how long it would take before TM offered a bribe to get her censored deal through the HoC.
It's a sham and should be recognised as such.

Assuming for the purposes of debate that the HoC votes to hold a second referendum, what will the questions be?
The existing WA is currently the only game in town: the EU has no incentive to shift its position. It is a 'test case' for the bloc.
A smooth exit for the UK might encourage other countries to follow suit. Anathema to Brussels.

Leavers are going to have to come to terms with one unpalatable fact.
They got the majority of votes cast in 2016 but were sold down the river by Remainer Theresa May.
I'll bet the papers relating to her cosy chat with Merkel and the subsequent Chequers coup will be classified for 30 years.
Just like FCO30/148. We'll have to wait until 2050 (or beyond) to have any chance of finding out what went on.

A fundamental question is, can we untie this Gordian Knot, and , if so, how?
No deal is not an end in itself. It is, and always has been, the end product of a lack of a Withdrawal Agreement.
The problem now is that we have a WA and thanks to TM it's a crock of scensorede.
I would rather stay in than accept it. Doing so might just bring about much needed adjustment to the UK's political system.









wisbech

2,939 posts

120 months

Tuesday 21st May 2019
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Sway said:
Shame the immigration officer in the US, upon being told I was visiting for a work conference and to visit the US offices a little while ago, didn't know that...

Standard ESTA being travelled on.
That’s business, not work...

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