How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 11)
Discussion
JNW1 said:
Brooking10 said:
That’s abundantly clear.
What you, and the chap above, are missing is that such a move would not be “forced by the establishment” or because of “Remoaners”
It would be a calculated political tactic from Johnson, designed to cement his position and hold himself out as having met his mandate to deliver Brexit.
The problem with a certain faction is that any mention of “the R word’ immediately clouds thought and raises suspicion.
I don't see Boris initiating another referendum, I think that would only happen at the instigation of a pro-Remain government following a GE. And if we ever get that far I'd be amazed if Remain didn't feature as an option on the ballot paper.....What you, and the chap above, are missing is that such a move would not be “forced by the establishment” or because of “Remoaners”
It would be a calculated political tactic from Johnson, designed to cement his position and hold himself out as having met his mandate to deliver Brexit.
The problem with a certain faction is that any mention of “the R word’ immediately clouds thought and raises suspicion.
Don’t forget the point was brought up in direct response to the issue of a second extension.
It’s not an assertion that there will be a second, revised, referendum.
Brooking10 said:
DeepEnd said:
It’s such a mess a remain option would be inevitable.
This is not definitively the case.It’s what some might like but it’s unlikely to be in Boris’ thinking
He's clearly setting up for a General Election, not a Referendum and that's clearly the best route to getting us out because it must follow from decisions that will mean that Conservatives that oppose Government policy will not be able to stand. If BXP stand only against remain parties, then the outcome is then pretty clear too.
Conversely, in a referendum Parliament, including remainiac Conservatives, would determine the question, rather than Boris or the Government.
golf_addict said:
The fact that the EU are more concerned about politics than economics is exactly why we should be leaving.
The fact we might not be well prepared to leave with no deal is directly due to 3 years of Remainers in control, seeking to prevent appropriate plans to be put in place.
The fact we might not be well prepared to leave with no deal is directly due to 3 years of Remainers in control, seeking to prevent appropriate plans to be put in place.
steveT350C said:
golf_addict said:
The fact that the EU are more concerned about politics than economics is exactly why we should be leaving.
The fact we might not be well prepared to leave with no deal is directly due to 3 years of Remainers in control, seeking to prevent appropriate plans to be put in place.
The fact we might not be well prepared to leave with no deal is directly due to 3 years of Remainers in control, seeking to prevent appropriate plans to be put in place.
paulrockliffe said:
Why on earth do you think Boris would be calling a referendum?
He's clearly setting up for a General Election, not a Referendum and that's clearly the best route to getting us out because it must follow from decisions that will mean that Conservatives that oppose Government policy will not be able to stand. If BXP stand only against remain parties, then the outcome is then pretty clear too.
Conversely, in a referendum Parliament, including remainiac Conservatives, would determine the question, rather than Boris or the Government.
Read back, the ref point has been raised only in conjunction with a further extension.He's clearly setting up for a General Election, not a Referendum and that's clearly the best route to getting us out because it must follow from decisions that will mean that Conservatives that oppose Government policy will not be able to stand. If BXP stand only against remain parties, then the outcome is then pretty clear too.
Conversely, in a referendum Parliament, including remainiac Conservatives, would determine the question, rather than Boris or the Government.
I’m fairly certain he won’t hold a GE pre Oct 31st, especially one that runs the risk of him having to acknowledge BXP candidates in the house for the next few years.
Brooking10 said:
DeepEnd said:
It’s such a mess a remain option would be inevitable.
This is not definitively the case.It’s what some might like but it’s unlikely to be in Boris’ thinking
Another ref will only be possible with Clark like take over - which looks unlikely, or Boris being forced through legislation to have one.
I feels like there has been a shift in parliament panic levels - previously it felt like the votes in the house were waiting for the right time for a 2nd vote and it was too early for a majority. Now if that vote was held again there maybe more of a “s
t we have to do this now or Boris will make an even bigger mess and he has no plan”. The previous votes were with a May deal backdrop, now it is (allegedly) a no deal backdrop. Quite different. We need a bit more sovereignty over the way forward, and not just leave it to Boris and his counter-TBP cabinet with Priti “shut the door to EU foreigners on 1st Nov unless they are on £35k” Patel.
Edited as NHS maybe exempt from the £35k. Still a s
tty hypocritical foreigner not welcome policy.Edited by DeepEnd on Monday 19th August 10:15
Brooking10 said:
DeepEnd said:
It’s such a mess a remain option would be inevitable.
This is not definitively the case.It’s what some might like but it’s unlikely to be in Boris’ thinking
DeepEnd said:
I’m not sure Boris could keep it off the table, or even if he’ll be PM.
Another ref will only be possible with Clark like take over - which looks unlikely, or Boris being forced through legislation to have one.
I feels like there has been a shift in parliament panic levels - previously it felt like the votes in the house were waiting for the right time for a 2nd vote and it was too early for a majority. Now if that vote was held again there maybe more of a “st we have to do this now or Boris will make an even bigger mess and he has no plan”. The previous votes were with a May deal backdrop, now it is (allegedly) a no deal backdrop. Quite different.
We need a bit more sovereignty over the way forward, and not just leave it to Boris and his counter-TBP cabinet with Priti “shut the door to EU foreigners on 1st Nov unless they are on £35k so no more foreign nurses” Patel.
Are you by any chance lying about what has actually been suggested?Another ref will only be possible with Clark like take over - which looks unlikely, or Boris being forced through legislation to have one.
I feels like there has been a shift in parliament panic levels - previously it felt like the votes in the house were waiting for the right time for a 2nd vote and it was too early for a majority. Now if that vote was held again there maybe more of a “s
t we have to do this now or Boris will make an even bigger mess and he has no plan”. The previous votes were with a May deal backdrop, now it is (allegedly) a no deal backdrop. Quite different. We need a bit more sovereignty over the way forward, and not just leave it to Boris and his counter-TBP cabinet with Priti “shut the door to EU foreigners on 1st Nov unless they are on £35k so no more foreign nurses” Patel.
Dr Jekyll said:
DeepEnd said:
We need a bit more sovereignty over the way forward, and not just leave it to Boris and his counter-TBP cabinet with Priti “shut the door to EU foreigners on 1st Nov unless they are on £35k so no more foreign nurses” Patel.
£35K limit doesn't apply to NHS staff.As tory rebel numbers increase, does that mean only 2 options ?
1) ignore a vote of no confidence ad then GE.
2) early election, where parliament would be closed for 17 week days prior to date of election.
As Boris has committed to brexit aren’t tne rebels just guaranteeing an early GE?
I presume, either way, we leave with no deal, and rebel mps lose seats/not allowed to run in early GE.
Don’t we inevitably arrive at no deal followed by an early GE?
1) ignore a vote of no confidence ad then GE.
2) early election, where parliament would be closed for 17 week days prior to date of election.
As Boris has committed to brexit aren’t tne rebels just guaranteeing an early GE?
I presume, either way, we leave with no deal, and rebel mps lose seats/not allowed to run in early GE.
Don’t we inevitably arrive at no deal followed by an early GE?
philv said:
Don’t we inevitably arrive at no deal followed by an early GE?
I think that is probably the plan. Johnson will have killed TBP with the no deal exit, so he will hope that most of the Conservative voters who have defected to TBP will return to the fold. He may also hope that Labour supporters who had defected to TBP might actually come to the Conservatives, rather than support Corbyn. I think this might be why Corbyn is getting a fairly light ride at the moment - he is the Conservatives next best electoral asset after delivering Brexit.
A second referendum will solve the square root of fk all
It would only be called by a remainer with the sole intention of overturning the first vote .. anyone who thinks differently is deluded
All it will do is cause further division and tension
If it is rigged, as mentioned above, to provide remain as the “majority” option with significantly less than 52% of the vote what validity will that have?
Especially if combined the various leave options outweigh the winning remain vote ?
As it will be called by a remainer what will they do if the country goes “fk you” and votes to leave again ?
We are then exactly back where we were 3.5 years ago with a remain govt and a country that wants to leave
No, a second referendum is not the answer and solves nothing
k all It would only be called by a remainer with the sole intention of overturning the first vote .. anyone who thinks differently is deluded
All it will do is cause further division and tension
If it is rigged, as mentioned above, to provide remain as the “majority” option with significantly less than 52% of the vote what validity will that have?
Especially if combined the various leave options outweigh the winning remain vote ?
As it will be called by a remainer what will they do if the country goes “f
k you” and votes to leave again ?We are then exactly back where we were 3.5 years ago with a remain govt and a country that wants to leave
No, a second referendum is not the answer and solves nothing
ClaphamGT3 said:
Brooking10 said:
DeepEnd said:
It’s such a mess a remain option would be inevitable.
This is not definitively the case.It’s what some might like but it’s unlikely to be in Boris’ thinking
t. 
If we get to the point where there is a second referendum, the EU is certainly not going to offer anything other than the WA - because it would be clear that there is no sitting government capable of negotiating any other option. Brussels would simply repeat their current (public) position "the agreement cannot be negotiated".
So the only choice we could give the public would be - accept the WA that parliament has rejected three times, or (depending on who you talk to) No Deal or Remain. We've already had the discussions about the complexity of a three way vote, but anyone has to realise that this is not a choice you can give to the public when the 'well has been poisoned' so thoroughly by misinformation, leaks and lies about what those options actually mean.
And in the mean time, a second referendum will have completely, once and for all achieved what May started, by removing any obligation for the EU to actually compromise. We know this will happen (if it happens at all) at the 11th hour. So it comes as no surprise that Second Referendum fans are committed to caving in to another nine months of idiocy shortly before the EU is likely to budge.
Brooking10 said:
paulrockliffe said:
Why on earth do you think Boris would be calling a referendum?
He's clearly setting up for a General Election, not a Referendum and that's clearly the best route to getting us out because it must follow from decisions that will mean that Conservatives that oppose Government policy will not be able to stand. If BXP stand only against remain parties, then the outcome is then pretty clear too.
Conversely, in a referendum Parliament, including remainiac Conservatives, would determine the question, rather than Boris or the Government.
Read back, the ref point has been raised only in conjunction with a further extension.He's clearly setting up for a General Election, not a Referendum and that's clearly the best route to getting us out because it must follow from decisions that will mean that Conservatives that oppose Government policy will not be able to stand. If BXP stand only against remain parties, then the outcome is then pretty clear too.
Conversely, in a referendum Parliament, including remainiac Conservatives, would determine the question, rather than Boris or the Government.
I’m fairly certain he won’t hold a GE pre Oct 31st, especially one that runs the risk of him having to acknowledge BXP candidates in the house for the next few years.
Brooking10 said:
What you, and the chap above, are missing is that such a move would not be “forced by the establishment” or because of “Remoaners”
It would be a calculated political tactic from Johnson, designed to cement his position and hold himself out as having met his mandate to deliver Brexit.
The problem with a certain faction is that any mention of “the R word’ immediately clouds thought and raises suspicion.
All irrelevant. A second referendum - for any reason, or with any options on the paper - will end all negotiations with the EU.It would be a calculated political tactic from Johnson, designed to cement his position and hold himself out as having met his mandate to deliver Brexit.
The problem with a certain faction is that any mention of “the R word’ immediately clouds thought and raises suspicion.
The whole point of Boris' showmanship at the moment is a chance (however big or small you many think it to be) that the EU will compromise when faced with someone actually playing hard ball. It is the only game in town if we are to 'fix' the WA.
And a reminder - we are just discussing the conditions under which we enter the next phase of the negotiations. Whatever we agree is an interim position, so this is really a test of whether we're prepared to negotiate in all seriousness, or if we don't have the confidence to even do that. If it proves that we don't, this country is in deeper trouble than the point something of a percent difference a no deal brexit would cause to GDP.
JNW1 said:
Brooking10 said:
paulrockliffe said:
Why on earth do you think Boris would be calling a referendum?
He's clearly setting up for a General Election, not a Referendum and that's clearly the best route to getting us out because it must follow from decisions that will mean that Conservatives that oppose Government policy will not be able to stand. If BXP stand only against remain parties, then the outcome is then pretty clear too.
Conversely, in a referendum Parliament, including remainiac Conservatives, would determine the question, rather than Boris or the Government.
Read back, the ref point has been raised only in conjunction with a further extension.He's clearly setting up for a General Election, not a Referendum and that's clearly the best route to getting us out because it must follow from decisions that will mean that Conservatives that oppose Government policy will not be able to stand. If BXP stand only against remain parties, then the outcome is then pretty clear too.
Conversely, in a referendum Parliament, including remainiac Conservatives, would determine the question, rather than Boris or the Government.
I’m fairly certain he won’t hold a GE pre Oct 31st, especially one that runs the risk of him having to acknowledge BXP candidates in the house for the next few years.
But it would take place after 31st.
Parliament closed 17 days before 31st.
Job done.
Mrr T said:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/p...
Does this mean EU citizens will have to fill in a landing card on entering the UK except in Ireland where there will be no border. Now I know the boxes are tiny to fill in but that not exactly tough.
Showboating I rather expect.
Seems kind of obvious at present we leave with no deal, freedom of movement is an EU "thing" so it would cease, what that means in terms of practicality who knows I assume we'd announce that we'll maintain a very open position for several months until we decide what we want to do and if it potentially figured in a future deal. Clearly any tourists would have zero issues apart from filling in a tiny card (if that) workers would be a bigger issue but realistically probably not that much. Hopefully tho the requirement to prefer EU nationals over ROTW applicants vanishes.Does this mean EU citizens will have to fill in a landing card on entering the UK except in Ireland where there will be no border. Now I know the boxes are tiny to fill in but that not exactly tough.
Showboating I rather expect.
Tuna said:
The whole point of Boris' showmanship at the moment is a chance (however big or small you many think it to be) that the EU will compromise when faced with someone actually playing hard ball. It is the only game in town if we are to 'fix' the WA.
That is a leap of faith not supported by news coming from Germany over the weekend.DeepEnd said:
...
We need a bit more sovereignty over the way forward, and not just leave it to Boris and his counter-TBP cabinet with Priti “shut the door to EU foreigners on 1st Nov unless they are on £35k” Patel.
Edited as NHS maybe exempt from the £35k. Still a stty hypocritical foreigner not welcome policy.
...
We've had tons of opportunity for "more sovereignty" over the last 3yrs. starting with our erudite MPs having the ability not to vote for a withdrawal act that includes no deal as the default option (that act could quite easily have included the exact opposite). And bucket loads of opportunity since.We need a bit more sovereignty over the way forward, and not just leave it to Boris and his counter-TBP cabinet with Priti “shut the door to EU foreigners on 1st Nov unless they are on £35k” Patel.
Edited as NHS maybe exempt from the £35k. Still a s
tty hypocritical foreigner not welcome policy....
That "the time <wasn't> right to get a majority" explains everything that needs to be known. WHY wasn't it? What did the likes of Grieve and Clark expect? May's "deal" got a proper kick in the nuts the first time it was presented. It was never going to pass. Why didn't they hit the panic button then? If they are so certain their predictions of catastrophe are 100% nailed on to happen, it cannot have been "looking out for the good of the country".
IMO the country is sick and tired of votes. If there must be another, then make it a GE and let's see what happens. But it's highly doubtful anything materially different will ensue, so it'd be yet another pointless exercise.
Incidentally, insisting on a criteria for immigration is not "foreigners not welcome". It's a mechanism used by the majority of nations across the globe. I'm sure even the most ardent of "we're all one world" believers could think of some categories of non-nationals who they would not welcome (Donald Trump is probably high up the list of most of them
)...so really it's just a case of the lines being drawn in different places.Despite the hysteria it does look like that line is also flexible depending on the industry/skills being brought to the country.
I very much doubt the majority of people would have any issue with any of that. And in future if it's such a big deal we can all vote for a party that is committed to changing it
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