How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 11)

How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 11)

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F1GTRUeno

6,335 posts

217 months

Wednesday 21st August 2019
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NoNeed said:
You forget it was a typical conceited arrogant remainer that knew he couldn't lose and what everybody else wanted that started this
The bitterness in this is wonderful.

If you're a fking idiot then everyone who isn't will sound conceited and arrogant and you'll have a chip on your shoulder the size of mainland Europe.

Funny how that seems to be the overriding theme of Brexit from nigh on every Brexiteer I come into contact with.

'fk the experts, I'm sick of being told what to do! I just wanna be angry and bitter about everything that didn't work out in my life and target something! To hell with the fact it's misguided and misplaced!'.

dazwalsh

6,095 posts

140 months

Wednesday 21st August 2019
quotequote all
An interesting shift of tone by Germany. What gets me is why this was done off the bat from a member state rather than the EU negotiating team. Makes me think the general consensus is true, that Germany and France are pulling the strings on the whole EU project.

So Boris, 30 days, get creative. Im not holding my breath though

anonymous-user

53 months

Wednesday 21st August 2019
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Robertj21a said:
If nothing else, many Leavers (and probably a good proportion of the electorate generally) should be fairly happy with Boris's performance as PM so far. That in itself is far better than many on PH were expecting.
I dunno. I thought the short term was where he would be most useful. Long term could turn out very different, however I would love to eat my hat if he proves wrong the negative things I've said about him.

Edited by anonymous-user on Wednesday 21st August 22:37

Sway

26,070 posts

193 months

Wednesday 21st August 2019
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psi310398 said:
andymadmak said:
EDIT.

So preventing the movement of unauthorised product from Uk to Ireland is simply a matter of enforcing existing regs.
Sadly, the converse has proven to be a bit of a problem...but apparently it’s ok to dump adulterated st on ussmile.
Do you rally think product certifications are managed at a border?

The type of border with a global average 2% inspections?

rofl

anonymous-user

53 months

Wednesday 21st August 2019
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dazwalsh said:
An interesting shift of tone by Germany. What gets me is why this was done off the bat from a member state rather than the EU negotiating team. Makes me think the general consensus is true, that Germany and France are pulling the strings on the whole EU project.

So Boris, 30 days, get creative. Im not holding my breath though
Either way it doesn't reflect well on the E. U.

So in step the adults and make a mockery of what the EU have been up to for the past few years. E. U look like a set of s.

Or, perhaps yes, the organ grinder steps in and shows the E. U up to be just a set of sock puppet s.

Oh but us Brexiteers were just misled, racist thicko and there was never anything inherently wrong with the perfect E. U.



Edited by anonymous-user on Wednesday 21st August 22:51

Elysium

13,756 posts

186 months

Wednesday 21st August 2019
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dai1983 said:
AJL308 said:
So, the EU has tonight gone from "the backstop is absolutely, totally and utterly non-negotiable" to"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49427674

"At a press conference ahead of a working dinner, the German chancellor said a realistic alternative to the plan would require "absolute clarity" on the post-Brexit future relationship between the UK and the EU."
Don’t get too excited because:

Mr Johnson replied: "You rightly say the onus is on us to produce those solutions, those ideas”
Some progress. This is our problem to solve. The backstop works for the EU. and May clearly thought she could get Parliament to wear it.

She was wrong and we have been wasting time ever since, either denying there is an issue or suggesting the EU is to blame.

Finally, we have an admission that we need to come up with an alternative to persuade the EU to shift position.

Le Controleur Horizontal

1,480 posts

59 months

Wednesday 21st August 2019
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Elysium said:
Some progress. This is our problem to solve. The backstop works for the EU. and May clearly thought she could get Parliament to wear it.

She was wrong and we have been wasting time ever since, either denying there is an issue or suggesting the EU is to blame.

Finally, we have an admission that we need to come up with an alternative to persuade the EU to shift position.
BOTH the Uk and the EU ....NEED....to come up with an alternative

Elysium

13,756 posts

186 months

Wednesday 21st August 2019
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Le Controleur Horizontal said:
Elysium said:
Some progress. This is our problem to solve. The backstop works for the EU. and May clearly thought she could get Parliament to wear it.

She was wrong and we have been wasting time ever since, either denying there is an issue or suggesting the EU is to blame.

Finally, we have an admission that we need to come up with an alternative to persuade the EU to shift position.
BOTH the Uk and the EU ....NEED....to come up with an alternative
No - they have come up with a idea, which May said would work. If we want something different the it is up to us to propose it.

The idea that they should keep guessing what we want is ridiculous.

AJL308

6,390 posts

155 months

Wednesday 21st August 2019
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Nickgnome said:
AJL308 said:
So, the EU has tonight gone from "the backstop is absolutely, totally and utterly non-negotiable" to"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49427674

"At a press conference ahead of a working dinner, the German chancellor said a realistic alternative to the plan would require "absolute clarity" on the post-Brexit future relationship between the UK and the EU."
That was always the case. It was the UK’s inability to state with sufficient detail our preferred trade package that the WA was required. This is as a direct result of triggering A50 without a strategy/plan.
You're missing the point; the EU has previously consistently and repeatedly said that under no circumstances would the WA agreement, especially the part regarding the backstop, be altered or renegotiated.

Now we have a PM who is making it perfectly clear that we are leaving the EU come hell or high water on October 31st and the EU are suddenly saying "suggest a plan to replace the backstop and we'll look ait". That, and the Remain crowd can argue the opposite all they like but they'd be wrong, is by it's very nature, a renegotiation. Merkel has stated that the EU is now actually negotiating despite saying that they would not.

The EU has bent and will agree to alter the WA without the backstop. Had TM had the bottle to do what BJ is now doing we would have left in March.

Elysium

13,756 posts

186 months

Wednesday 21st August 2019
quotequote all
AJL308 said:
Nickgnome said:
AJL308 said:
So, the EU has tonight gone from "the backstop is absolutely, totally and utterly non-negotiable" to"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49427674

"At a press conference ahead of a working dinner, the German chancellor said a realistic alternative to the plan would require "absolute clarity" on the post-Brexit future relationship between the UK and the EU."
That was always the case. It was the UK’s inability to state with sufficient detail our preferred trade package that the WA was required. This is as a direct result of triggering A50 without a strategy/plan.
You're missing the point; the EU has previously consistently and repeatedly said that under no circumstances would the WA agreement, especially the part regarding the backstop, be altered or renegotiated.

Now we have a PM who is making it perfectly clear that we are leaving the EU come hell or high water on October 31st and the EU are suddenly saying "suggest a plan to replace the backstop and we'll look ait". That, and the Remain crowd can argue the opposite all they like but they'd be wrong, is by it's very nature, a renegotiation. Merkel has stated that the EU is now actually negotiating despite saying that they would not.

The EU has bent and will agree to alter the WA without the backstop. Had TM had the bottle to do what BJ is now doing we would have left in March.
It’s absurdly obvious that the EU would look at a counter proposal. In negotiation it’s often helpful to give the other side a chance to climb down from an entrenched position. The only reason we have not done so is that we do not have a solution.

It’s nothing to do with Johnson being tough. If we had a solution, then we could have left in March under May.


frisbee

4,957 posts

109 months

Wednesday 21st August 2019
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Zero chance BJ and chumps will come up with anything fundamentally different.

So WA basically unchanged will be back for anther loosing vote in a few weeks. Then the Cons can blame others for, take your pick, for:

a) leave with no-deal
b) cancel Brexit
c) something dumber than anyone can possibly imagine

I'm leaning strongly towards c).

Murph7355

37,651 posts

255 months

Wednesday 21st August 2019
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DeepEnd said:
amusingduck said:
DeepEnd said:
DExEU came up with the “May/Robbins” deal.
Source for that absolute whopper?
It’s obvious.

Are you really suggesting that DExEU was not involved at all?

Source? “Davis scuttling away” rofl:
Just when you were starting to debate the topic..you seem to have been so fixated with cliff edges that you just threw your sanity over one.

May moved Robbins OUT of DExEU. Her speeches prior to Chequers made no reference to the rubbish she and Robbins conjured up. Ministers resigned once Chequers was out in the open.

The timing of events, the approach and the content don't give any inclination whatsoever that the person actually tasked with DExEU was responsible for her WA, nor any of the key people in that department.

Your comments about Hammond earlier are equally nuts. Both he and May were in positions to make their predictions self-fulfilling prophecies. They actively stopped any preps being made for No Deal. Absolute lunacy, unless their ploy was never to actually leave. Which bearing in mind the above shenanigans seems highly likely.

The fault for the shambles that has been the last three 3yrs lies pretty squarely at May's idiotic door. Parliament as a whole comes next - if it was so dead set against no deal all along it should never have voted through the Withdrawal Act but, having done so, should have done something affirmative about it. Cameron next for running away having caused the mess. He and Osborne for not allowing for proper preps for a no deal outcome in the run up to the vote.

But all of that pales somewhat to my Top 3...

Brown - no referendum at the point of Lisbon
Major - no referendum on Maastricht
EU politicos - for their general approach and disdain for the citizens of Europe they are meant to serve.

A leaver blaming everyone else? Nope. Blaming a very specific set of people who I think made very fundamental mistakes which led to the vote to leave smile

Blaming Johnson, Gove, Davis, Leave voters...that's the short sighted bit. Look deeper wink

anonymous-user

53 months

Wednesday 21st August 2019
quotequote all
frisbee said:
Zero chance BJ and chumps will come up with anything fundamentally different.

So WA basically unchanged will be back for anther loosing vote in a few weeks. Then the Cons can blame others for, take your pick, for:

a) leave with no-deal
b) cancel Brexit
c) something dumber than anyone can possibly imagine

I'm leaning strongly towards c).
Why does that not surprise me smile

Otis Criblecoblis

1,078 posts

65 months

Wednesday 21st August 2019
quotequote all
dazwalsh said:
An interesting shift of tone by Germany. What gets me is why this was done off the bat from a member state rather than the EU negotiating team. Makes me think the general consensus is true, that Germany and France are pulling the strings on the whole EU project.

So Boris, 30 days, get creative. Im not holding my breath though
Merkel is very pro EU, but not silly enough to leave any damaging decisions to piss head drunken EU presidents or teary eyed Tusk.
Everyone at the EU thought they'd done an easy deal with May , but Merkel can see that ship has sailed, hence the need to seem reasonable tonight.
I have a feeling that while other leaders are much the same and don't see the need to inflict damage for the dake of the backstop.
They will let the EU muppets put up a fight in public though.

philv

3,912 posts

213 months

Wednesday 21st August 2019
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Elysium said:
Le Controleur Horizontal said:
Elysium said:
Some progress. This is our problem to solve. The backstop works for the EU. and May clearly thought she could get Parliament to wear it.

She was wrong and we have been wasting time ever since, either denying there is an issue or suggesting the EU is to blame.

Finally, we have an admission that we need to come up with an alternative to persuade the EU to shift position.
BOTH the Uk and the EU ....NEED....to come up with an alternative
No - they have come up with a idea, which May said would work. If we want something different the it is up to us to propose it.

The idea that they should keep guessing what we want is ridiculous.
Ok...we should offer tne solution that they give us Paris.
That might be unacceptable to them, but their turn to think of something new.

Or...both sides can keep looking for a solution that is acceptable to both sides.
If the eu know it’s not acceptable to tne uk it is in their interest to find an alternative as well.


glazbagun

14,259 posts

196 months

Wednesday 21st August 2019
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FWIR, Mays "exploratory votes" to find out what parliament did want had Mays deal sans backstop in front of other options, but still not a majority.

Mays deal still seems like the worst of both leave and remain, so even if Boris gets a better backstop I'm not sure it will get through parliament as both hardcore leavers and remainers will still oppose it.

grantone

640 posts

172 months

Wednesday 21st August 2019
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glazbagun said:
FWIR, Mays "exploratory votes" to find out what parliament did want had Mays deal sans backstop in front of other options, but still not a majority.

Mays deal still seems like the worst of both leave and remain, so even if Boris gets a better backstop I'm not sure it will get through parliament as both hardcore leavers and remainers will still oppose it.
I think we might see enough abstentions on the final vote to get something through as I think MPs are starting to believe that it really will be no deal if they don't. The position of many now is 'anything' to avoid no deal, so they have sort of backed themselves into a corner if a deal is offered.

Merkel's position is very good, we're not scrapping the backstop, we just don't need it if a deal is done. No loss of face.

I think the UK government might just get away with proposing the Donald Tusk Canada+ plan with a couple of years transition to make up for lost time, give him loads of credit to help grease it through and apologise profusely for wasting the EU's time for three years.

Leins

9,418 posts

147 months

Thursday 22nd August 2019
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digimeistter said:
Ireland will not be thrown under a bus despite Varadker's pontification.

He will be out of a job soon though.
To be replaced by whom - Martin? God forbid it’s Mary Lou?!

I’m not entirely sure why there’s so much hatred of LV on here and in much of the British Media. There’s also a feeling that many would like to see RoI get done over by the EU, just to teach him and us a lesson

There are flaws with Fine Gael under his stewardship (much of it inherited like health and housing), and personally I think Coveney is a better politician, but I’d still take him over Boris as a leader of a country any day

Britain is in the process of unleashing the mother of all clusterf**ks on us with this Brexit, so its hardly surprising that Leo’s not standing by idly watching it all happen without a say on matters

anonymous-user

53 months

Thursday 22nd August 2019
quotequote all
Leins said:
digimeistter said:
Ireland will not be thrown under a bus despite Varadker's pontification.

He will be out of a job soon though.
To be replaced by whom - Martin? God forbid it’s Mary Lou?!

I’m not entirely sure why there’s so much hatred of LV on here and in much of the British Media. There’s also a feeling that many would like to see RoI get done over by the EU, just to teach him and us a lesson

There are flaws with Fine Gael under his stewardship (much of it inherited like health and housing), and personally I think Coveney is a better politician, but I’d still take him over Boris as a leader of a country any day

Britain is in the process of unleashing the mother of all clusterf**ks on us with this Brexit, so its hardly surprising that Leo’s not standing by idly watching it all happen without a say on matters
RE Varadkar, nah. He's just been playing the EU games which have done nothing but exacerbate the situation. It's not something the Irish people should suffer for, it's just disappointing and you've got to understand that people will be angry with him. He could have been a statesman and could have come out of it good as the man who helped forge a solution. For him to say that this is all the responsibility of the British, well yes we made the decision to leave, but what use is saying that? Have you noticed criticism of his stance in the Irish press?

paul.deitch

2,086 posts

256 months

Thursday 22nd August 2019
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Boris's new options are likely to be to offer buy Eire or start a war and invade it again.

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