How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 11)
Discussion
Murph7355 said:
JNW1 said:
In theory yes but in practice I'd be amazed if a no deal Brexit was allowed to come to pass just because Parliament's suspended. Quite how it would be avoided from a process point of view I don't know but the reality is we have a House of Commons which is overwhelmingly against no deal and an EU which is against no deal; therefore, between them I think they'd find a way of stopping it happening just by default.....
Possibly.But we need to get away from the narrative that this might happen now simply because Parliament is suspended for a GE or whatever.
This is happening because of the way the negotiations happened and how Parliament have reacted over the last 3yrs. This isn't BJ's problem per se. He's only doing what would be seen as logical in any other negotiation (if we cannot agree a deal then we should leave it and walk and come back to it later).
Parliament has failed all of us. And for the likes of Grieve and Swinson to think they have answers in the name of saving the country from itself is comedy gold.
However, there are people out there who seem to believe that just by timing a GE in a certain way we'll end-up with a no deal Brexit by default because Parliament's suspended; "job done" to quote a previous poster. Technically that may well be possible, I'm just saying I don't think the UK Parliament and the EU - both of which are very keen to avoid a no deal Brexit - would allow that to just happen in those circumstances. How exactly they'd avoid it I don't know but I'd be surprised if they didn't try very hard to find a way....
screwball said:
Do you not think non payment may be a sticking point when negotiating future free trade negotiations?
We will have to pay the on-going liabilities etc. come what may I think. Can't see how we could or should avoid those.The other on-going payments into the budget are of course to cover the "transition" period. If there is no transition period then obviously they don't get paid although we will have paid 6 months worth by October anyway.
banjowilly said:
loafer123 said:
I see where you are coming from, but in my opinion, the longer it was left after the referendum, the more Parliament would have said “oh, things have changed” or “ that was then, this is now”.
Only the triggering of the process locked in the delivery schedule of A50.
Kind of like the implicit acknowledgment there Loafy that had MP's realised the chaos they were unleashing, they might have thought twice...Only the triggering of the process locked in the delivery schedule of A50.
Blue62 said:
loafer123 said:
I have no idea but, more importantly, why do you think I have to agree with him?
You don't have to agree with him, I am asking you why you think the man behind Boris and the Leave campaign is wrong. So far your defence is that it wouldn't have happened otherwise, specious in the extreme. Even assuming you are right, it still put us in a weak position and has resulted in the current mayhem, it was a very poor tactical play.loafer123 said:
I have absolutely no idea why he has his views. Seeing as you follow him more closely than I do, perhaps you can tell everyone?
I pointed out the chief reason why Cummings thinks it was a big mistake, it won't take you long to re read the post. I don't follow him closely, I have an interest in politics and try to read from a wide source, Cummings has been highly visible since Boris became PM and his views have been widely publicised. As someone who posts on here an awful lot, with seemingly strong views on Brexit I thought you would be aware of him, sorry.
loafer123 said:
Certainly. Given the opportunity to ignore our democratic vote, I regret to agree they would have done so. They are being dragged kicking and screaming to fulfilling that vote.
It's a bit of a merry go round this. The Rubicon of the democratic vote is nowhere near set in stone as leavers would have me believe & far from kicking & screaming, the MP's are generally acting in what they see as the nation's best interests vs a government that has tried to circumvent them at every turn but it all gets drowned out in the partisan squabbles. The Tories are badly at fault for not taking a poorly defined proposition from a narrow vote to a viable proposal before setting the ball rolling. I really don't think it's especially controversial to point this out.Those heady days of May stood on a boat banging on about Red, white & blue Brexit while the rest of us sat there thinking: What does that mean?
banjowilly said:
loafer123 said:
Certainly. Given the opportunity to ignore our democratic vote, I regret to agree they would have done so. They are being dragged kicking and screaming to fulfilling that vote.
It's a bit of a merry go round this. The Rubicon of the democratic vote is nowhere near set in stone as leavers would have me believe & far from kicking & screaming, the MP's are generally acting in what they see as the nation's best interests vs a government that has tried to circumvent them at every turn but it all gets drowned out in the partisan squabbles. The Tories are badly at fault for not taking a poorly defined proposition from a narrow vote to a viable proposal before setting the ball rolling. I really don't think it's especially controversial to point this out.Those heady days of May stood on a boat banging on about Red, white & blue Brexit while the rest of us sat there thinking: What does that mean?
Personally, I always go back to the Government White Paper published in 2016 that explained what a vote to leave the EU would entail, the process and the potential outcomes. You, your remainer mates and most of our MPs need to have a good read of it, it's clearly been accidentally forgotten about.
Mr Penfold said:
screwball said:
Do you not think non payment may be a sticking point when negotiating future free trade agreements?
That us not what we owe, that is what they say we owePlease refer to the build up.
Furthermore if we refuse to pay, the the Eu can refuse to cooperate in those joint projects already committed.
Some here may think it desirable that UK MEPs do not get their pensions. That would be fun to see Farage and his MEPs trying to take the Eu to court.
Blue62 said:
loafer123 said:
I have absolutely no idea why he has his views. Seeing as you follow him more closely than I do, perhaps you can tell everyone?
I pointed out the chief reason why Cummings thinks it was a big mistake, it won't take you long to re read the post. I don't follow him closely, I have an interest in politics and try to read from a wide source, Cummings has been highly visible since Boris became PM and his views have been widely publicised. As someone who posts on here an awful lot, with seemingly strong views on Brexit I thought you would be aware of him, sorry.
paulrockliffe said:
Forget about May, if there's one thing all sides can agree with it's that she was a bloody idiot.
Personally, I always go back to the Government White Paper published in 2016 that explained what a vote to leave the EU would entail, the process and the potential outcomes. You, your remainer mates and most of our MPs need to have a good read of it, it's clearly been accidentally forgotten about.
And the zenith of leaver delusions. You voted against the people we told you were lying because you secretly knew they were right & we were wrong. Personally, I always go back to the Government White Paper published in 2016 that explained what a vote to leave the EU would entail, the process and the potential outcomes. You, your remainer mates and most of our MPs need to have a good read of it, it's clearly been accidentally forgotten about.
loafer123 said:
You said that he thinks it was a mistake. You didn’t say why...do tell...
Blimey! It weakened our negotiating position because we did not allow sufficient time to prepare, triggering A50 too soon put the EU in a stronger position. Cummings advised strongly against doing this and I think history will sadly prove him right. If you are genuinely interested to understand his views there's plenty of information out there, but you'd probably have to log off PH for a little while, which means you might miss out on a minor point scoring opportunity, which would be tragic.
Blue62 said:
loafer123 said:
You said that he thinks it was a mistake. You didn’t say why...do tell...
Blimey! It weakened our negotiating position because we did not allow sufficient time to prepare, triggering A50 too soon put the EU in a stronger position. Cummings advised strongly against doing this and I think history will sadly prove him right. If you are genuinely interested to understand his views there's plenty of information out there, but you'd probably have to log off PH for a little while, which means you might miss out on a minor point scoring opportunity, which would be tragic.
Back to the point, however, I don’t think he is right.
He must think that, by delaying A50, we could have got the EU away from their process driven mantra of agreeing the separation agreement before leaving and then, and only then, discussing the permanent relationship.
Varifoukis warned that this is what they would do at the start. Indeed, A50 itself requires the separation agreement to be delivered with only minor reference to the future relationship.
On that basis, I have no clue what he thinks would have been achieved by delaying A50.
banjowilly said:
loafer123 said:
Certainly. Given the opportunity to ignore our democratic vote, I regret to agree they would have done so. They are being dragged kicking and screaming to fulfilling that vote.
It's a bit of a merry go round this. The Rubicon of the democratic vote is nowhere near set in stone as leavers would have me believe & far from kicking & screaming, the MP's are generally acting in what they see as the nation's best interests vs a government that has tried to circumvent them at every turn but it all gets drowned out in the partisan squabbles. The Tories are badly at fault for not taking a poorly defined proposition from a narrow vote to a viable proposal before setting the ball rolling. I really don't think it's especially controversial to point this out.Those heady days of May stood on a boat banging on about Red, white & blue Brexit while the rest of us sat there thinking: What does that mean?
loafer123 said:
Loving the irony!
Back to the point, however, I don’t think he is right.
He must think that, by delaying A50, we could have got the EU away from their process driven mantra of agreeing the separation agreement before leaving and then, and only then, discussing the permanent relationship.
Varifoukis warned that this is what they would do at the start. Indeed, A50 itself requires the separation agreement to be delivered with only minor reference to the future relationship.
On that basis, I have no clue what he thinks would have been achieved by delaying A50.
I tend to agree, I see this as just another of Cummings “I’m smarter than everyone else” plays to sneer at anyone other than him - I’m unconvinced he is anywhere near as clever as he thinks he is.Back to the point, however, I don’t think he is right.
He must think that, by delaying A50, we could have got the EU away from their process driven mantra of agreeing the separation agreement before leaving and then, and only then, discussing the permanent relationship.
Varifoukis warned that this is what they would do at the start. Indeed, A50 itself requires the separation agreement to be delivered with only minor reference to the future relationship.
On that basis, I have no clue what he thinks would have been achieved by delaying A50.
The EU were clear about needing to trigger art 50 before talks could start. It is unclear how Cummings would have persuaded them otherwise - the EU made the point this was not to be taken lightly or every other nation in the 28 would have a go at a renegotiation or “seeing what leave might look like”.
We know what leave looks like now. It is far from clear how Cummings could have made it any better - indeed has he ever provided a vision of what he thought it should look like?
DeepEnd said:
loafer123 said:
Loving the irony!
Back to the point, however, I don’t think he is right.
He must think that, by delaying A50, we could have got the EU away from their process driven mantra of agreeing the separation agreement before leaving and then, and only then, discussing the permanent relationship.
Varifoukis warned that this is what they would do at the start. Indeed, A50 itself requires the separation agreement to be delivered with only minor reference to the future relationship.
On that basis, I have no clue what he thinks would have been achieved by delaying A50.
I tend to agree, I see this as just another of Cummings “I’m smarter than everyone else” plays to sneer at anyone other than him - I’m unconvinced he is anywhere near as clever as he thinks he is.Back to the point, however, I don’t think he is right.
He must think that, by delaying A50, we could have got the EU away from their process driven mantra of agreeing the separation agreement before leaving and then, and only then, discussing the permanent relationship.
Varifoukis warned that this is what they would do at the start. Indeed, A50 itself requires the separation agreement to be delivered with only minor reference to the future relationship.
On that basis, I have no clue what he thinks would have been achieved by delaying A50.
The EU were clear about needing to trigger art 50 before talks could start. It is unclear how Cummings would have persuaded them otherwise - the EU made the point this was not to be taken lightly or every other nation in the 28 would have a go at a renegotiation or “seeing what leave might look like”.
We know what leave looks like now. It is far from clear how Cummings could have made it any better - indeed has he ever provided a vision of what he thought it should look like?
He doesn't believe this should have been the subject of a refferenndum, too binary. But had to take opportunity if he was going to split things open. I'm not sure he'll achieve anything the old guard will just reform.
One thing is quite clear, without him leave wouldn't have gone over the line.
Interesting clever bloke, pulling the strings behind the machine. And he's doing it again.
Edited by PositronicRay on Monday 19th August 16:33
DeepEnd said:
I tend to agree, I see this as just another of Cummings “I’m smarter than everyone else” plays to sneer at anyone other than him - I’m unconvinced he is anywhere near as clever as he thinks he is.
Isn’t that the modus operandi of a few Remainers in here who are still struggling to come to terms with the results of the vote that took place 3 years ago?Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff