How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 11)
Discussion
pgh said:
Why would it be incumbent upon the PM to propose a specific border solution in this letter? That seems a little unusual to me, any plan for the border would surely be longer than any reasonable length letter.
because, it's the UK that has rejected a key element of a negotiated agreement. The letter rejects the backstop & calls for 'alternative arrangements' It doesn't offer those arrangements, spell them out, suggest what they might be or otherwise give any details whatsoever. This is the weakness at the heart of the ERG's & moreover now, the government's argument: If you insist a guarantee designed to avoid a hard border & which would only come into being in the event that other options fail, is unacceptable, then you are saying that your alternative arrangements don't exist or at the very least are unviable. There is no possible alternative interpretation. Johnson, saddled with the intractable problem of the border would be singing the praises of his alternative arrangements from the rooftops if he had them to offer.This is the inescapable truth about the letter. If the government had any confidence in the alternatives, the backstop would be of no concern. Once you make the leap, then you understand that Brexit starts & ends with saving the Tory party.
milkround said:
As a truck driver who does pharmaceuticals for a firm that runs to Belgium all the time - I wouldn't worry about anything directly after Brexit day. We have been bringing in huge amounts to cover any problems.
And being totally honest if there are big problems then medicines will be top of the list for special treatment and urgency.
Other stuff not so much. Car parts will be huge. Some foods will be a problem. And raw drugs might take a lot longer and cause a pain. It will cause problems but directly getting emergency medicines wont happen for a good while if ever.
People who dont drive through the ports have no idea how it works. Add one minute to each truck and you have an explosion of problems. The volumes are astronomical. If a truck is over 30 mins late it will miss its spot and can be stood for hours. Which knocks onto the next one. And the next one. And even the trailers who are taking what you are delivering.
We shall have to see. But it wont be as pretty as most on here assume.
Well put, I think it could be very disruptive. And being totally honest if there are big problems then medicines will be top of the list for special treatment and urgency.
Other stuff not so much. Car parts will be huge. Some foods will be a problem. And raw drugs might take a lot longer and cause a pain. It will cause problems but directly getting emergency medicines wont happen for a good while if ever.
People who dont drive through the ports have no idea how it works. Add one minute to each truck and you have an explosion of problems. The volumes are astronomical. If a truck is over 30 mins late it will miss its spot and can be stood for hours. Which knocks onto the next one. And the next one. And even the trailers who are taking what you are delivering.
We shall have to see. But it wont be as pretty as most on here assume.
Why it is usually assumed it would only be for 3 months - what is expected to change?
DeepEnd said:
Well put, I think it could be very disruptive.
Why it is usually assumed it would only be for 3 months - what is expected to change?
Capacity. Why it is usually assumed it would only be for 3 months - what is expected to change?
Medicines and drugs can only be held in certain secure warehousing. It's usually high value and you dont want it compromised. There is a limitation on how much you can store. Not least that it can go off. You need accountability. I cant physically get into trailer once its closed you need bolt cutters etc and other security measures.
Certain medicines also need refrigerated warehousing. Neither cheap or easily profitable quickly.
I think the logic from those paid far more than me is that it goes to hell that a few months will be enough time to gets the house in order.
Personally I see a specialised system for medicine deliveries quickly (say special medicine lines at customs) if needed. We produce a lot of medicines they need so it works both ways.
Sway said:
loafer123 said:
Sway said:
loafer123 said:
DeepEnd said:
Carl_Manchester said:
my mother’s NHS insulin comes from Belgium, on august 12th, the CEO of the top international drug distributor in Belgium is not warning of a problem, i am sure if there is going to be a problem specifically with the likes of insulin that a waiver will be in place.
If there are jams at the ports, it is unclear if a waiver will help.I’d assumed this was the sort of thing the Grayling ferries were for - so a dedicated reliable logistics solution with carefully managed cargo could “always get through” - so to speak.
Anyway, in extremis, a quick refrigerated container from Rotterdam to Tilbury would be through customs in the time it takes a computer to process the data.
4 hours and it'd achieve ex works in Belgium through Cargo at Heathrow (other airports are available) if there was a pressing need.
BUT...
Don't forget MrrT knows all our aircraft will be grounded and our airports will look like something out of I Am Legend (not to mention our citizens) immediately after a no deal catastrophic cliff edge disaster....
b
hstewie said:
hstewie said: Eddie Mair did a phone in yesterday where he asked why can't politicians simply be honest with the public on Brexit.
Yellowhammer and the report/dossier was mentioned.
His point being it's basically just bullst politics on either side of the debate where either the sky is falling in or the government is spending billions of pounds to mitigate "a few bumps in the road".
If it's been written there's a reason so why can't politicians simply be honest? Reasons range from they don't want egg on their face to that it's simple the state politics has got to in this country where scoring points and simply calling your opponent a liar is more important than the national interest.
I'd suggest the reason politicians simply can't be honest is that we expect them to have fully thought through answers to every nuanced situation but the reality is they don't have a clue as to what will actually happen - nobody does from either side. How can they when we don't know how this will play out on 31 Oct, who will blink first, what the exact deal will look like as its yet to be negotiated etc. Yellowhammer and the report/dossier was mentioned.
His point being it's basically just bulls
t politics on either side of the debate where either the sky is falling in or the government is spending billions of pounds to mitigate "a few bumps in the road".If it's been written there's a reason so why can't politicians simply be honest? Reasons range from they don't want egg on their face to that it's simple the state politics has got to in this country where scoring points and simply calling your opponent a liar is more important than the national interest.
Being seen to be prepared has to be the only position but scratch that a little bit and there's not a lot of tangible substance underneath it. There can't be. I don't recall any serious discussion or public debate or clear messages from the Brexit campaign about Ireland but this has proven to be the most challenging sticking point. Did they forget or miss it? And David Davis breezily saying it would be "the easiest deal in History" to do with the EU. That confident assertion turned out to be nothing more than wishful thinking.
From a remainers position, it's very easy to pick at as the 'remain' alternative is fully understood as it's the world as we know it today and have become fully familiar with over 40 years. There's the comfort of certainty, albeit being a passenger on the bus along with 27 other EU countries all with a hand on the wheel.
From a leavers position, the benefits are largely hypothetical and probably to be realised in the medium to long term but to get there we have to pass through this immediate and short term uncertainty when every aspect of our economic and trading relationship with the EU and ROW have to be reset, renegotiated and bed in.
One thing is for sure, there's no way we can the UK can make this change without there being some parts of society and the economy that will suffer, some that will benefit and that there will be a lot of uncertainty as we work through at a detail level all the intended and unintended consequences of leaving until we've settled into this new reality.
For any politician or commentator who says they know how this will actually turn out, I say b
ks. You may have aspiration, hope and belief (like David Davis!) but you're not a time traveller. Once released from the EU lobster pot we will be a ping pong ball buffeted around the harbour of complex and powerful global forces all looking to protect their own interests until we reach our new equilibrium, whatever that looks like.
I for one hope we very quickly improve the calibre of our political and diplomatic skills as based on the shower of s
t that is our current crop of 'leaders' it's very easy to see how we'll be eaten alive by other countries ready to take advantage of our desperation to find our new place on the global stage. loafer123 said:
DeepEnd said:
But the quota owners will still sue the UK if they tear them up.
See Grayling/ferries/Eurotunnel.
£33m pay off for his incompetence.
It is all down to UK govt decisions to allow quota sales - the EU did not force them to let us let our fishermen sell them for profit.
What about the fishermen that made a quick buck selling the quota - will these stand to benefit again when the sold quotas are “illegally” / repatriated?
Sue them for what? The risk of us leaving the EU and the CFP was always there as a commercial risk. It was all in the pricing. That is the real world...risk and reward.See Grayling/ferries/Eurotunnel.
£33m pay off for his incompetence.
It is all down to UK govt decisions to allow quota sales - the EU did not force them to let us let our fishermen sell them for profit.
What about the fishermen that made a quick buck selling the quota - will these stand to benefit again when the sold quotas are “illegally” / repatriated?
Brexiters seem to have problem with the rule of law.
Initial reaction to PM letter:
“It’s clear from the letter that renegotiation is the last thing the British government wants,” one told the POLITICO.
A French diplomatic official told the same website that replacing the backstop with a vague promise of “alternative arrangements” was “a joke”.
Another senior EU source stated that Johnson’s latest move was “a total moving of the goalposts on an issue of great importance”.
“It’s clear from the letter that renegotiation is the last thing the British government wants,” one told the POLITICO.
A French diplomatic official told the same website that replacing the backstop with a vague promise of “alternative arrangements” was “a joke”.
Another senior EU source stated that Johnson’s latest move was “a total moving of the goalposts on an issue of great importance”.
Murph7355 said:
Exactly.
BUT...
Don't forget MrrT knows all our aircraft will be grounded and our airports will look like something out of I Am Legend (not to mention our citizens) immediately after a no deal catastrophic cliff edge disaster....
So is your hope for no deal brexit, still, that the EU rolls overs it's 11 and 12 month dispensation for the UK aerospace industry?BUT...
Don't forget MrrT knows all our aircraft will be grounded and our airports will look like something out of I Am Legend (not to mention our citizens) immediately after a no deal catastrophic cliff edge disaster....
How is this taking back control?
DeepEnd said:
Initial reaction to PM letter:
“It’s clear from the letter that renegotiation is the last thing the British government wants,” one told the POLITICO.
A French diplomatic official told the same website that replacing the backstop with a vague promise of “alternative arrangements” was “a joke”.
Another senior EU source stated that Johnson’s latest move was “a total moving of the goalposts on an issue of great importance”.
Oh well, we had best give up and just bend over then.“It’s clear from the letter that renegotiation is the last thing the British government wants,” one told the POLITICO.
A French diplomatic official told the same website that replacing the backstop with a vague promise of “alternative arrangements” was “a joke”.
Another senior EU source stated that Johnson’s latest move was “a total moving of the goalposts on an issue of great importance”.
Stand up, look in the mirror and like yourself, you will have a better day ahead if you do.
Le Controleur Horizontal said:
DeepEnd said:
Initial reaction to PM letter:
“It’s clear from the letter that renegotiation is the last thing the British government wants,” one told the POLITICO.
A French diplomatic official told the same website that replacing the backstop with a vague promise of “alternative arrangements” was “a joke”.
Another senior EU source stated that Johnson’s latest move was “a total moving of the goalposts on an issue of great importance”.
Oh well, we had best give up and just bend over then.“It’s clear from the letter that renegotiation is the last thing the British government wants,” one told the POLITICO.
A French diplomatic official told the same website that replacing the backstop with a vague promise of “alternative arrangements” was “a joke”.
Another senior EU source stated that Johnson’s latest move was “a total moving of the goalposts on an issue of great importance”.
Stand up, look in the mirror and like yourself, you will have a better day ahead if you do.
DeepEnd said:
Le Controleur Horizontal said:
DeepEnd said:
Initial reaction to PM letter:
“It’s clear from the letter that renegotiation is the last thing the British government wants,” one told the POLITICO.
A French diplomatic official told the same website that replacing the backstop with a vague promise of “alternative arrangements” was “a joke”.
Another senior EU source stated that Johnson’s latest move was “a total moving of the goalposts on an issue of great importance”.
Oh well, we had best give up and just bend over then.“It’s clear from the letter that renegotiation is the last thing the British government wants,” one told the POLITICO.
A French diplomatic official told the same website that replacing the backstop with a vague promise of “alternative arrangements” was “a joke”.
Another senior EU source stated that Johnson’s latest move was “a total moving of the goalposts on an issue of great importance”.
Stand up, look in the mirror and like yourself, you will have a better day ahead if you do.
Mrr T said:
So nationalising foreign own rights is OK. So if France decided to nationalise the assets of a UK company operating in France that would be fine with you.
Brexiters seem to have problem with the rule of law.
To be fair, as long as arbitrated and fair compensation is paid - nationalisation ‘eminent domain’ is fine. If the UK Govt post Brexit buys out the Spanish quota owners that is fine I think Brexiters seem to have problem with the rule of law.
DeepEnd said:
Initial reaction to PM letter:
“It’s clear from the letter that renegotiation is the last thing the British government wants,” one told the POLITICO.
A French diplomatic official told the same website that replacing the backstop with a vague promise of “alternative arrangements” was “a joke”.
Another senior EU source stated that Johnson’s latest move was “a total moving of the goalposts on an issue of great importance”.
But they can’t have it both ways: if the very principle of the backstop is not negotiable, then there’s really no point proposing alternative arrangements either. “It’s clear from the letter that renegotiation is the last thing the British government wants,” one told the POLITICO.
A French diplomatic official told the same website that replacing the backstop with a vague promise of “alternative arrangements” was “a joke”.
Another senior EU source stated that Johnson’s latest move was “a total moving of the goalposts on an issue of great importance”.
ash73 said:
Someone clever once said:
Politics is the art of postponing decisions until they are no longer relevant.
Boris will bottle it.They're just going to keep delaying Brexit until the public changes its mind, imo.
I'm surprised people are even bothering to follow this on the news anymore.
Doesn't want the mess on his hands? There won't be anything in his hands once his support evaporates after pulling a May. Can't see how that's best for Boris.
wisbech said:
Mrr T said:
So nationalising foreign own rights is OK. So if France decided to nationalise the assets of a UK company operating in France that would be fine with you.
Brexiters seem to have problem with the rule of law.
To be fair, as long as arbitrated and fair compensation is paid - nationalisation ‘eminent domain’ is fine. If the UK Govt post Brexit buys out the Spanish quota owners that is fine I think Brexiters seem to have problem with the rule of law.
Mrr T said:
wisbech said:
Mrr T said:
So nationalising foreign own rights is OK. So if France decided to nationalise the assets of a UK company operating in France that would be fine with you.
Brexiters seem to have problem with the rule of law.
To be fair, as long as arbitrated and fair compensation is paid - nationalisation ‘eminent domain’ is fine. If the UK Govt post Brexit buys out the Spanish quota owners that is fine I think Brexiters seem to have problem with the rule of law.
Jimboka said:
Hopefully the government will then reclaim the money from the UK fisherman who sold their quotas. Cease their goods etc if they cannot pay.
On what basis? It was legal for them to sell the quota. Say you sold your house to an American 15 years ago, and now the Govt forces him to sell as a foreigner, and then makes you pay. Would you be ok with that?Jimboka said:
Mrr T said:
wisbech said:
Mrr T said:
So nationalising foreign own rights is OK. So if France decided to nationalise the assets of a UK company operating in France that would be fine with you.
Brexiters seem to have problem with the rule of law.
To be fair, as long as arbitrated and fair compensation is paid - nationalisation ‘eminent domain’ is fine. If the UK Govt post Brexit buys out the Spanish quota owners that is fine I think Brexiters seem to have problem with the rule of law.
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