MPs say car ownership not compatible with decarbonisation

MPs say car ownership not compatible with decarbonisation

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Discussion

Evanivitch

19,804 posts

121 months

Friday 23rd August 2019
quotequote all
s2art said:
And you believe them? The UK is running at very tight margins right now, and we seem to have problems getting the nukes built on time (or at all).
Except it's not running on tight margins at all. It's running on exactly what National Grid expect and use in their models. So yes, I'd believe them over a keyboard warrior making false assumptions.

irc

7,171 posts

135 months

Friday 23rd August 2019
quotequote all
RobDickinson said:
Oh yeah they must be lying to everyone with all those reports n all.

Reality is the switch to EVs will be slow enough that the grid can improve where needed, peak power demands won't go up because they'll charge off peak with smart chargers.
Peak power demand won't go up? National Grid don't seem to agree. In looking at different scenarios up to 2050 one has a 30% increase in peak demand due to EVs.

"For example, our Consumer Power scenario suggests that EVs will create an extra 18GW of demand by 2050 – that’s equivalent to an extra 30% on top of today’s peak demand."

https://www.nationalgrid.com/group/case-studies/el...







Evanivitch

19,804 posts

121 months

Saturday 24th August 2019
quotequote all
irc said:
RobDickinson said:
Oh yeah they must be lying to everyone with all those reports n all.

Reality is the switch to EVs will be slow enough that the grid can improve where needed, peak power demands won't go up because they'll charge off peak with smart chargers.
Peak power demand won't go up? National Grid don't seem to agree. In looking at different scenarios up to 2050 one has a 30% increase in peak demand due to EVs.

"For example, our Consumer Power scenario suggests that EVs will create an extra 18GW of demand by 2050 – that’s equivalent to an extra 30% on top of today’s peak demand."

https://www.nationalgrid.com/group/case-studies/el...
Did you have a stroke at the end of that sentence?

National Grid said:
You could argue that millions of motorists all needing to charge their electric vehicles would require lots of new power stations just to meet this surge in demand. But in fact this is where better consumer engagement and advances in technology both have a part to play.

turbobloke

103,744 posts

259 months

Saturday 24th August 2019
quotequote all
Evanivitch said:
National Grid said:
You could argue that millions of motorists all needing to charge their electric vehicles would require lots of new power stations just to meet this surge in demand. But in fact this is where better consumer engagement and advances in technology both have a part to play.
Apart from that last sentence as a whole being a stroke of futuristic wishful thinking with nothing current (no pun intended) or concrete in sight, it would be helpful to have a translation from the weasel wording.

Better consumer engagement could be persuading more people to install smart meters for remotely managed brownouts and blackouts as that drops demand very nicely, it could also be forgetting to tell people they'll need a new mains fuse to charge a decent EV in a decent timescale, it could be diversions for politicians and consumers to help avert gazes from the eye-watering cost of the infrastructure developments needed, or just more spin. Advances in technology could be from the author's dreams after eating cheese before bedtime - otherwise why not mention what these advances are, or it could be alien technology from Area 51 or Area 52. What it isn't is setting out anything practical or affordable, or achievable within a timescale of goodness knows how long (they don't know), as expected in this context.

s2art

18,937 posts

252 months

Saturday 24th August 2019
quotequote all
Evanivitch said:
Except it's not running on tight margins at all. It's running on exactly what National Grid expect and use in their models. So yes, I'd believe them over a keyboard warrior making false assumptions.
Keyboard warrior? Seriously?

See https://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/nov/04/n...

Its pretty tight due to the closure of the coal plants coupled to the variability in wind.

frozen-in-wiltshire

Original Poster:

152 posts

83 months

Saturday 24th August 2019
quotequote all
turbobloke said:
Evanivitch said:
National Grid said:
You could argue that millions of motorists all needing to charge their electric vehicles would require lots of new power stations just to meet this surge in demand. But in fact this is where better consumer engagement and advances in technology both have a part to play.
Apart from that last sentence as a whole being a stroke of futuristic wishful thinking with nothing current (no pun intended) or concrete in sight, it would be helpful to have a translation from the weasel wording.

Better consumer engagement could be persuading more people to install smart meters for remotely managed brownouts and blackouts as that drops demand very nicely, it could also be forgetting to tell people they'll need a new mains fuse to charge a decent EV in a decent timescale, it could be diversions for politicians and consumers to help avert gazes from the eye-watering cost of the infrastructure developments needed, or just more spin. Advances in technology could be from the author's dreams after eating cheese before bedtime - otherwise why not mention what these advances are, or it could be alien technology from Area 51 or Area 52. What it isn't is setting out anything practical or affordable, or achievable within a timescale of goodness knows how long (they don't know), as expected in this context.
You're dead right about the weasel words. However at home you'd need much more than just a new mains fuse. You can't charge an EV (a decent one) of 400volt or above on a normal domestic supply in any sane time.

Quote regarding telsa "You can but it's painfully slow, charging an 85kWh Tesla would take between 24 – 30 hours on a 13amp socket" I have a friend who owns one and he has the fast charger installed at home on three phase. Charges fast overnight with that as the maths says it will, doesn't do so well on 13amp domestic socket.

Some general comments on charging and energy infrastructure - backed up by facts for those others on here who doubt.

I talked to two manufacturers about it (tesla and porsche) and both recommend a light industrial style three phase power feed to the house. That means digging up roads and running new cables from the nearest substation - assuming it's got the capacity in the first place (which it won't when everyone is doing this). I know this for a fact (not guesswork) as around here the substation powers a recent housing estate near me all fitted with electric central heating boilers (obviously very green!). And in winter the 'green' electrically heated houses need a giant diesel generator plugged into the substation to meet demand. Because they can't deliver enough power into it on the cabling infrastructure obviously. And when I say giant generator, I mean one the size of an articulated lorry - a great big orange aggreko one - parked there running for months at a time over winter. How green is that! Is that what National grid mean by "advances in technology"?

And to further prove that the National Grid comment is totally wishful thinking, even if the grid did have enough raw power in the first place (it doesn't, massive shortfall on that), it doesn't have the physical power cables in the ground to get it to where it's needed in the quantity it's needed anyway.

Maybe their "advances in future technology" means star-trek style energy transfer beams - so we won't need any new cables?





RobDickinson

31,343 posts

253 months

Saturday 24th August 2019
quotequote all
Nobody needs 3phase unless they are doing huge mileage every single day

32amp/7kw will fill most evs overnight without any issues, even 8 amp will top up most peoples daily mileage with ease

and no one charges to 100% unless they are going long distance.

My car will have a 75kwh battery and I am not planning on installing the wall charger and will charge with just 8amp its all I will need.

s2art

18,937 posts

252 months

Saturday 24th August 2019
quotequote all
RobDickinson said:
Nobody needs 3phase unless they are doing huge mileage every single day

32amp/7kw will fill most evs overnight without any issues, even 8 amp will top up most peoples daily mileage with ease

and no one charges to 100% unless they are going long distance.

My car will have a 75kwh battery and I am not planning on installing the wall charger and will charge with just 8amp its all I will need.
Looks a bit optimistic to me. at 8 amp for 8 hours you get approx 15kwh. That would power a Jag i-pace for maybe 50 miles if you are lucky. Now try it in a British winter with heating lights and window wipers running. Under those conditions you would be lucky to get 30 miles. And I think people would want a decent margin just in case.

See https://www.topgear.com/car-news/electric/tgs-big-...

Edited by s2art on Saturday 24th August 11:27

RobDickinson

31,343 posts

253 months

Saturday 24th August 2019
quotequote all
s2art said:
RobDickinson said:
Nobody needs 3phase unless they are doing huge mileage every single day

32amp/7kw will fill most evs overnight without any issues, even 8 amp will top up most peoples daily mileage with ease

and no one charges to 100% unless they are going long distance.

My car will have a 75kwh battery and I am not planning on installing the wall charger and will charge with just 8amp its all I will need.
Looks a bit optimistic to me. at 8 amp for 8 hours you get approx 15kwh. That would power a Jag i-pace for maybe 50 miles if you are lucky. Now try it in a British winter with heating lights and window wipers running. Under those conditions you would be lucky to get 30 miles. And I think people would want a decent margin just in case.

See https://www.topgear.com/car-news/electric/tgs-big-...

Edited by s2art on Saturday 24th August 11:27
average UK commute is 30 miles or less afik and you've chosen a very inefficient car and a short time.

12 hours overnight at 2kw, 24kw most EVs would do 100 miles on that

Evanivitch

19,804 posts

121 months

Saturday 24th August 2019
quotequote all
s2art said:
Evanivitch said:
Except it's not running on tight margins at all. It's running on exactly what National Grid expect and use in their models. So yes, I'd believe them over a keyboard warrior making false assumptions.
Keyboard warrior? Seriously?

See https://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/nov/04/n...

Its pretty tight due to the closure of the coal plants coupled to the variability in wind.
Yes.

Even the guardian provide a nice warning that the article is old and out dated. Not obvious enough that it's a 2015 article?

Evanivitch

19,804 posts

121 months

Saturday 24th August 2019
quotequote all
s2art said:
Looks a bit optimistic to me. at 8 amp for 8 hours you get approx 15kwh. That would power a Jag i-pace for maybe 50 miles if you are lucky. Now try it in a British winter with heating lights and window wipers running. Under those conditions you would be lucky to get 30 miles. And I think people would want a decent margin just in case.

See https://www.topgear.com/car-news/electric/tgs-big-...

Edited by s2art on Saturday 24th August 11:27
In most EVs you would need to be doing 80mph+, heating on max and constantly using friction brakes and accelerating hard to see anything like 2miles/kWh.

Or you could just be driving a poorly engineered brick.

AstonZagato

12,652 posts

209 months

Saturday 24th August 2019
quotequote all
Rob,

We already had a wall charger when we got our Tesla. I upgraded it to a 3 phase. The 13A socket is, as Tesla says, painfully slow. Most of the time, it would be fine. However, if you come home from a long journey and need to do a decent journey the next day, even a wall charger doesn't give you much room for error.

s2art

18,937 posts

252 months

Saturday 24th August 2019
quotequote all
Evanivitch said:
s2art said:
Evanivitch said:
Except it's not running on tight margins at all. It's running on exactly what National Grid expect and use in their models. So yes, I'd believe them over a keyboard warrior making false assumptions.
Keyboard warrior? Seriously?

See https://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/nov/04/n...

Its pretty tight due to the closure of the coal plants coupled to the variability in wind.
Yes.

Even the guardian provide a nice warning that the article is old and out dated. Not obvious enough that it's a 2015 article?
So what is so different now compared to 2015? We have more wind power, but have lost some coal power. And there are approx a million more people.

Evanivitch

19,804 posts

121 months

Saturday 24th August 2019
quotequote all
frozen-in-wiltshire said:
You're dead right about the weasel words. However at home you'd need much more than just a new mains fuse. You can't charge an EV (a decent one) of 400volt or above on a normal domestic supply in any sane time.
What has the voltage got to do with the rate of charge or the size of battery? Please, educate me.

Frozen-in-the-past said:
I talked to two manufacturers about it (tesla and porsche) and both recommend a light industrial style three phase power feed to the house. That means digging up roads and running new cables from the nearest substation - assuming it's got the capacity in the first place (which it won't when everyone is doing this).
For what purpose? For normal domestic use or because you wanted to be able to charge as fast as physically possible? Because I don't believe any manufacturer normally recommends domestic 3 phase.

Frozen-in-the-past said:
I know this for a fact (not guesswork) as around here the substation powers a recent housing estate near me all fitted with electric central heating boilers (obviously very green!). And in winter the 'green' electrically heated houses need a giant diesel generator plugged into the substation to meet demand. Because they can't deliver enough power into it on the cabling infrastructure obviously. And when I say giant generator, I mean one the size of an articulated lorry - a great big orange aggreko one - parked there running for months at a time over winter. How green is that! Is that what National grid mean by "advances in technology"?
Great corner case rolleyes

Frozen-in-the-past said:
And to further prove that the National Grid comment is totally wishful thinking, even if the grid did have enough raw power in the first place (it doesn't, massive shortfall on that), it doesn't have the physical power cables in the ground to get it to where it's needed in the quantity it's needed anyway.

Maybe their "advances in future technology" means star-trek style energy transfer beams - so we won't need any new cables?
Prove what? Where's your evidence?

Pan Pan Pan

9,777 posts

110 months

Saturday 24th August 2019
quotequote all
John145 said:
RobDickinson said:
John145 said:
Don't get too cocky, no one has done a whole life study of electric vs ICE damage to the planet. Tail pipe emissions is a complete red herring for the planet...
No really, they have, turns out ICE cars suck and pollute a lot more.
Interested to see your evidence. Cradle to cradle analysis please.
Currently electricity has the worst government fuel factor, over other energy sources such as gas , oil etc. This can no doubt change if we are able to switch to nuclear energy for base supply quickly.
If those that want people to get out of their cars were serious, the `first' thing they would do is get out of `their' cars, This would include all those children who ducked out of school to attend climate change rallies, who must now all walk to and from school, (and not use any other CO2 emitting ways of getting about) also, give up their mobile phones, computers, video games, TV`s in their rooms, music concerts etc, and all other of their activities that generate CO2 emissions. This in order to show that A. they have thought what through what they are protesting for, And B, they are willing to (in effect) put their money where their mouth is, and immediately stop doing the things which generate the CO2 emissions they protest about. Whilst they are at it they might also take into account where the main emissions are coming from, so that they can go there (walking of course) to protest there, Not least because emissions don't recognize boundaries.

Evanivitch

19,804 posts

121 months

Saturday 24th August 2019
quotequote all
s2art said:
Evanivitch said:
s2art said:
Evanivitch said:
Except it's not running on tight margins at all. It's running on exactly what National Grid expect and use in their models. So yes, I'd believe them over a keyboard warrior making false assumptions.
Keyboard warrior? Seriously?

See https://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/nov/04/n...

Its pretty tight due to the closure of the coal plants coupled to the variability in wind.
Yes.

Even the guardian provide a nice warning that the article is old and out dated. Not obvious enough that it's a 2015 article?
So what is so different now compared to 2015? We have more wind power, but have lost some coal power. And there are approx a million more people.
UK Electricity Demand Decreases

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jan/30/u...

Renewables, including dispatchable bio fuels on the increase

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/energy-tr...

More Interconnectors allow us to make better use of our excess and deficit.

https://www.thecrownestate.co.uk/en-gb/media-and-i...

So, quite a lot actually.


Evanivitch

19,804 posts

121 months

Saturday 24th August 2019
quotequote all
AstonZagato said:
Rob,

We already had a wall charger when we got our Tesla. I upgraded it to a 3 phase. The 13A socket is, as Tesla says, painfully slow. Most of the time, it would be fine. However, if you come home from a long journey and need to do a decent journey the next day, even a wall charger doesn't give you much room for error.
A 7kW charger over 8 hours would get you more than enough to get you down the road on your journey and onto a rapid charger an hour or two away.

I can't imagine there's too many people that are needing 50kWh plus day after day.

Evanivitch

19,804 posts

121 months

Saturday 24th August 2019
quotequote all
turbojoke said:
Evanivitch said:
National Grid said:
You could argue that millions of motorists all needing to charge their electric vehicles would require lots of new power stations just to meet this surge in demand. But in fact this is where better consumer engagement and advances in technology both have a part to play.
Apart from that last sentence as a whole being a stroke of futuristic wishful thinking with nothing current (no pun intended) or concrete in sight, it would be helpful to have a translation from the weasel wording.

Better consumer engagement could be persuading more people to install smart meters for remotely managed brownouts and blackouts as that drops demand very nicely, it could also be forgetting to tell people they'll need a new mains fuse to charge a decent EV in a decent timescale, it could be diversions for politicians and consumers to help avert gazes from the eye-watering cost of the infrastructure developments needed, or just more spin. Advances in technology could be from the author's dreams after eating cheese before bedtime - otherwise why not mention what these advances are, or it could be alien technology from Area 51 or Area 52. What it isn't is setting out anything practical or affordable, or achievable within a timescale of goodness knows how long (they don't know), as expected in this context.
Do we include a fuse warning for people buying electric showers and electric ovens? Or is it generally handled by adults and an authorised installer whips out the old fuse and puts an 80/100A fuse in its place? Or worse case, your energy network provider requires £150 for the job...

Or is it often, free of charge...
https://www.ukpowernetworks.co.uk/electricity/fuse...


Still waiting for your references...

xjay1337

15,966 posts

117 months

Saturday 24th August 2019
quotequote all
I have to admit I would like an EV for local journeys. For example I have a 2.0 TDI Seat MPV I use for short journeys, shopping, and when it's pissing with rain etc (use it as my daily hack basically)

I could replace this with an EV but it would need a realistic 200 mile range in "real world" conditions , IE at night in the rain.
A Tesla would be fantastic but it's not feasible with the cost.

I could afford a Leaf but they are horrific with not enough range. A Model 3 is out of budget also.

I may get a Hyundai Ionic plug in as those are nice.

Edited by xjay1337 on Saturday 24th August 12:34

frisbee

4,958 posts

109 months

Saturday 24th August 2019
quotequote all
How the hell are we supposed to store this liquid petroleum substance? Are you seriously expecting me to pour 100 pint bottles of the substance into the blasted contraption's tank?

A quarter bucket of oats and a bit of hay are far more practical.

And what about if I suddenly decide to travel to Outer mongolia? With old Betsy I can just stop anywhere and fill her up in any field.

Not to mention she is self driving...