Election 2019

Poll: Election 2019

Total Members Polled: 1599

Conservative Party: 57%
Labour: 8%
Lib Dem: 19%
Green: 1%
Brexit Party: 7%
UKIP: 0%
SNP: 1%
Plaid Cymru: 0%
Other.: 2%
Spoil ballot paper. : 5%
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Author
Discussion

Halb

50,354 posts

131 months

Thursday 19th September
quotequote all
Kermit power said:
Well that's clearly wrong!!!!

According to the views of many posters in here, the Brexit Party should surely be cruising to an absolute majority at the next GE???
Well the ukips lot were the most fickle, I guess because BoJo is strong on the 'no deal' thing his score will soar as brexit lot drops...however having said that, if BoJo wobbles and it looks like he's going to go for May's deal then the brexit lot will spring back and bojo's vote will see-saw....I think anyway

JagLover

27,136 posts

183 months

Thursday 19th September
quotequote all
FiF said:
Groupthink = often wrong and wrong again,
These days you could just rename "groupthink" "Remainerthink"

Digga

28,570 posts

231 months

Thursday 19th September
quotequote all
Kermit power said:
Well that's clearly wrong!!!!

According to the views of many posters in here, the Brexit Party should surely be cruising to an absolute majority at the next GE???
I doubt it.

If you wanted to run an parallel, theoretical poll on "what would you vote if the UK fails to leave the EU on October 31st" you will get a very different vote.

oyster

9,435 posts

196 months

Thursday 19th September
quotequote all
WCZ said:
FiF said:
Only one poll but LD ahead of Labour, post conference.

Conservatives 32% (-)
Lib Dems 23% (+4)
Labour 21% (-2)
Brexit Party 14% (-)
Green 4% (-3)

YouGov
as predicted, the majority of people want no deal despite the campaign against boris johnson by the media he's still the man of the people
Assume you are adding Conservatives and Brexit? So 46.
The others are all anti no-deal and they total 48.

Anyway, I though the Conservatives want a deal? That's what they keep telling us.

WCZ

7,363 posts

142 months

Thursday 19th September
quotequote all
oyster said:
Assume you are adding Conservatives and Brexit? So 46.
The others are all anti no-deal and they total 48.

Anyway, I though the Conservatives want a deal? That's what they keep telling us.
that's a fair way of looking at it but either way the most popular party is one that supports no deal

if boris actually wants a deal then he's going to be as despised as TM was from both sides

JuanCarlosFandango

2,173 posts

19 months

Thursday 19th September
quotequote all
The combination of Boris' Conservatives having adopted no deal pretty much as policy and staying on 32% and BP still on 14% should pretty well kill the notion that people have changed their minds or died. That's a combined 46% of the electorate who seem fine with no deal before a single Labour voter, not to mention DUP and others.

It won't take that much strategizing for BP to focus their resources on Labour seats, especially after those Tories intent on scuppering the referendum result are deselected.

oyster

9,435 posts

196 months

Thursday 19th September
quotequote all
JuanCarlosFandango said:
The combination of Boris' Conservatives having adopted no deal pretty much as policy and staying on 32% and BP still on 14% should pretty well kill the notion that people have changed their minds or died. That's a combined 46% of the electorate who seem fine with no deal before a single Labour voter, not to mention DUP and others.

It won't take that much strategizing for BP to focus their resources on Labour seats, especially after those Tories intent on scuppering the referendum result are deselected.
I'm not convinced the polls actually represent what voters think about deal vs no-deal. In fact I suspect at least half of the voters in such a poll are not swayed by Brexit at all.

The Tory 32% will contain a number of hard core remainers who just don't want Corbyn in power. There'll be a chunk of the Labour vote who are pro-Leave but have always voted red rosette and will continue.

Only the Brexit party (and to a degree the Lib Dems) are carrying a Brexit premium.

FiF

36,271 posts

199 months

Thursday 19th September
quotequote all
oyster said:
WCZ said:
FiF said:
Only one poll but LD ahead of Labour, post conference.

Conservatives 32% (-)
Lib Dems 23% (+4)
Labour 21% (-2)
Brexit Party 14% (-)
Green 4% (-3)

YouGov
as predicted, the majority of people want no deal despite the campaign against boris johnson by the media he's still the man of the people
Assume you are adding Conservatives and Brexit? So 46.
The others are all anti no-deal and they total 48.

Anyway, I though the Conservatives want a deal? That's what they keep telling us.
No it's not from just adding up the results of that one poll. It's from a study which looked at a number of results and then drilled down to constituency level, will try to find it, or failing that a blog which discusses it or something similar. Just on phone and in middle of cooking dinner so later tonight after the dog walk, hope that's ok.

Derek Smith

35,079 posts

196 months

Thursday 19th September
quotequote all
Then again, the brexit issue might well be solved come the next election. TBP might have no reason to exist, apart from massaging Farage's conceit.

The percentages are not sufficient of themselves to show who will have the most seats, nor indeed how many they will have.

I'll vote libdem in a strong tory seat that's just been deselected by Johnson. Who knows what will happen?

Johnson looks likely to lost some/many/all of the Scottish tory seats. It is also possible that he might lose one or more or many of those he's dumped.

It's impossible to predict. Too many variables.


JuanCarlosFandango

2,173 posts

19 months

Thursday 19th September
quotequote all
oyster said:
I'm not convinced the polls actually represent what voters think about deal vs no-deal. In fact I suspect at least half of the voters in such a poll are not swayed by Brexit at all.

The Tory 32% will contain a number of hard core remainers who just don't want Corbyn in power. There'll be a chunk of the Labour vote who are pro-Leave but have always voted red rosette and will continue.

Only the Brexit party (and to a degree the Lib Dems) are carrying a Brexit premium.
I'm not sure about that.

The Tory vote may well include Tory remainers and habitual voters but the strength of the Lib Dems, up from 7.9% in 2017 remember, suggests the hard core ones have jumped ship already. Voting Conservative now is voting for no deal.

I don't know anyone even vaguely politically engaged who is indifferent about Brexit. People who normally bore me with laments about funding for carers or the pressing need for better railways have suddenly become animated supporters of one side or another. If there's a general election this autumn it's all about Brexit.

FiF

36,271 posts

199 months

Thursday 19th September
quotequote all
FiF said:
oyster said:
WCZ said:
FiF said:
Only one poll but LD ahead of Labour, post conference.

Conservatives 32% (-)
Lib Dems 23% (+4)
Labour 21% (-2)
Brexit Party 14% (-)
Green 4% (-3)

YouGov
as predicted, the majority of people want no deal despite the campaign against boris johnson by the media he's still the man of the people
Assume you are adding Conservatives and Brexit? So 46.
The others are all anti no-deal and they total 48.

Anyway, I though the Conservatives want a deal? That's what they keep telling us.
No it's not from just adding up the results of that one poll. It's from a study which looked at a number of results and then drilled down to constituency level, will try to find it, or failing that a blog which discusses it or something similar. Just on phone and in middle of cooking dinner so later tonight after the dog walk, hope that's ok.
This is the blog referenced above

https://electionsetc.com/2019/09/09/leavers-united...

JagLover

27,136 posts

183 months

Friday 20th September
quotequote all
FiF said:
An interesting read

Halb

50,354 posts

131 months

Friday 20th September
quotequote all
Derek Smith said:
Then again, the brexit issue might well be solved come the next election. TBP might have no reason to exist, apart from massaging Farage's conceit.

The percentages are not sufficient of themselves to show who will have the most seats, nor indeed how many they will have.

I'll vote libdem in a strong tory seat that's just been deselected by Johnson. Who knows what will happen?

Johnson looks likely to lost some/many/all of the Scottish tory seats. It is also possible that he might lose one or more or many of those he's dumped.

It's impossible to predict. Too many variables.

yes
we need doctor Strange

irocfan

21,318 posts

138 months

Friday 20th September
quotequote all
Halb said:
yes
we need doctor Strange
rofl

irocfan

21,318 posts

138 months

Friday 20th September
quotequote all
oyster said:
Assume you are adding Conservatives and Brexit? So 46.
The others are all anti no-deal and they total 48.

Anyway, I though the Conservatives want a deal? That's what they keep telling us.
surely the %ages are pointless - what is needed is a breakdown in the constituencies?

FiF

36,271 posts

199 months

Friday 20th September
quotequote all
JagLover said:
FiF said:
Groupthink = often wrong and wrong again,
These days you could just rename "groupthink" "Remainerthink"
It goes wider than that, look at the various spiteful Twitter campaigns against various individuals which are retweeted and repeated without thought, only when the truth comes out it was just 'Fake News' or at best someone had got hold of completely the wrong end of the stick, sorry to sound bit like 'the Donald' there.

oyster

9,435 posts

196 months

Friday 20th September
quotequote all
JuanCarlosFandango said:
oyster said:
I'm not convinced the polls actually represent what voters think about deal vs no-deal. In fact I suspect at least half of the voters in such a poll are not swayed by Brexit at all.

The Tory 32% will contain a number of hard core remainers who just don't want Corbyn in power. There'll be a chunk of the Labour vote who are pro-Leave but have always voted red rosette and will continue.

Only the Brexit party (and to a degree the Lib Dems) are carrying a Brexit premium.
I'm not sure about that.

The Tory vote may well include Tory remainers and habitual voters but the strength of the Lib Dems, up from 7.9% in 2017 remember, suggests the hard core ones have jumped ship already. Voting Conservative now is voting for no deal.

I don't know anyone even vaguely politically engaged who is indifferent about Brexit. People who normally bore me with laments about funding for carers or the pressing need for better railways have suddenly become animated supporters of one side or another. If there's a general election this autumn it's all about Brexit.
You may well be right.
But that's scary isn't it? We should not be electing a government for FIVE years just on the basis of one issue.

At the very worst Brexit will impact my personal income and wealth by a few percentage points. A Corbyn government will impact it by a lot more.

JuanCarlosFandango

2,173 posts

19 months

Friday 20th September
quotequote all
oyster said:
You may well be right.
But that's scary isn't it? We should not be electing a government for FIVE years just on the basis of one issue.

At the very worst Brexit will impact my personal income and wealth by a few percentage points. A Corbyn government will impact it by a lot more.
Not really scary, no. Brexit will impact the way this country is governed for decades or even centuries to come. Whatever silly stuff Corbyn would potentially do can be undone.

Besides which Corbyn won't get elected at least partly because he has nothing to say on Brexit except vacilating between his 70s trade unionist aversion to free trade and his 90s Islington hatred of Britain.

Digga

28,570 posts

231 months

Friday 20th September
quotequote all
JuanCarlosFandango said:
Whatever silly stuff Corbyn would potentially do can be undone.
A dangerous and incorrect assumption. what can easily be taken out of private ownership (working) cannot easily remain functional as a pubic entity, less still be put back into private ownership with any degree of surety.

Corbyn proposes some radical stuff. As the FT said the other week, the biggest private to public ownership undertaken in any developed economy, ever.

Zirconia

33,478 posts

232 months

Friday 20th September
quotequote all
^^^^
It is why Len worries me so much. Keeping that shower in office.
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