Poll: Election 2019
Total Members Polled: 1601
Discussion
Interesting seeing how accurate YouGov polls were in 2017
And how accurate everyone was in predicting the actual seats.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_fo...
YouGov’s most recent polls for this election
And seat predictions
Looks like an easy majority for the conservatives and a landslide victory is pretty much guaranteed now.
And how accurate everyone was in predicting the actual seats.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_fo...
YouGov’s most recent polls for this election
And seat predictions
Looks like an easy majority for the conservatives and a landslide victory is pretty much guaranteed now.
Edited by anonymous-user on Sunday 8th December 15:14
kwit actually thinks like that.El stovey said:
I wondered why the conservatives were only 10 (or whatever) points ahead of Corbyn and McDonnell. Thinking labour are such a bad option that they should be much more behind than that.
Looking back at previous elections though
2017 conservatives 42.4% labour 40.0% SNP 3.0%
2015 conservatives 36.9% labour 30.4%
2012 conservatives 36.1% labour 29.0% libdems 23.0%
10-11-12 points is actually a massive lead if accurate.
Even in Tony Blair’s “landslide” 1997 victory it was
Labour 43.2% conservatives 30.7% libdems 16.8%
And who could ever forget that shock result in 2012?Looking back at previous elections though
2017 conservatives 42.4% labour 40.0% SNP 3.0%
2015 conservatives 36.9% labour 30.4%
2012 conservatives 36.1% labour 29.0% libdems 23.0%
10-11-12 points is actually a massive lead if accurate.
Even in Tony Blair’s “landslide” 1997 victory it was
Labour 43.2% conservatives 30.7% libdems 16.8%
El stovey said:
I wondered why the conservatives were only 10 (or whatever) points ahead of Corbyn and McDonnell. Thinking labour are such a bad option that they should be much more behind than that.
Looking back at previous elections though
2017 conservatives 42.4% labour 40.0% SNP 3.0%
2015 conservatives 36.9% labour 30.4%
2012 conservatives 36.1% labour 29.0% libdems 23.0%
10-11-12 points is actually a massive lead if accurate.
Even in Tony Blair’s “landslide” 1997 victory it was
Labour 43.2% conservatives 30.7% libdems 16.8%
It's not. TM decision to go to the polls in 2017 and not get a majority means the boundary review was never passed. So a 5/7% lead for the tory can still see them lose. Looking back at previous elections though
2017 conservatives 42.4% labour 40.0% SNP 3.0%
2015 conservatives 36.9% labour 30.4%
2012 conservatives 36.1% labour 29.0% libdems 23.0%
10-11-12 points is actually a massive lead if accurate.
Even in Tony Blair’s “landslide” 1997 victory it was
Labour 43.2% conservatives 30.7% libdems 16.8%
uk66fastback said:
Angela Rayner is a nightmare, just her voice is enough to get me riled. After Friday, when Labour doesn't get the result they crave, I hope they do have some kind of inward-looking revolt ... and wonder how they let themselves become such a different party in such a short time. As Sir John Custice said on Marr this morning, they're not the party of the working class, they're the party of the young. Too young to remember the last left-wing mob who were in (or tried to be).
Don't be stupid. They'll be calling everyone thick and racist rather than looking at why they didn't get elected.uk66fastback said:
Angela Rayner is a nightmare, just her voice is enough to get me riled. After Friday, when Labour doesn't get the result they crave, I hope they do have some kind of inward-looking revolt ... and wonder how they let themselves become such a different party in such a short time. As Sir John Custice said on Marr this morning, they're not the party of the working class, they're the party of the young. Too young to remember the last left-wing mob who were in (or tried to be).
It’s mainly about momentum’s influence isn’t it? And maybe like brexit, a sign that traditional politics aren’t working for a lot of people. I wouldn’t vote for labour because I’ve got a good job and think both I and the county will be worse off under them. If you’re a young student or someone feeling left behind maybe they look a more attractive option.
However badly Corbyn is viewed on here, his hard left message is resonating with a large number of people. Ignoring them and dismissing them as freeloaders and jealous grasping lefties is as unwise as saying brexiters are thick racists.
Both Corbyn and Boris are pretty unpopular though and hopefully in future elections more people will have some positive options than just trying to decide on the least worst option. I certainly don’t think I’ve seen a more miserable and negative election in my lifetime. Both main parties seem to just be saying “you might not like me but they’re even worse”
Then whoever actually wins still has to sort out brexit which is going to go on for ages yet.
hutchst said:
Mrr T said:
It's not. TM decision to go to the polls in 2017 and not get a majority means the boundary review was never passed. So a 5/7% lead for the tory can still see them lose.
Yep. Remember Labour won in 2017 despite being several points behind even on polling day.Was it just because they stopped the conservatives getting a majority?
jtremlett said:
El stovey said:
Interesting seeing how accurate YouGov polls were in 2015 ...
Yes, interesting. My reading being that the only one that was anywhere close was the 2017 exit poll - which isn't all that much help with the polls so far.
El stovey said:
I wondered why the conservatives were only 10 (or whatever) points ahead of Corbyn and McDonnell. Thinking labour are such a bad option that they should be much more behind than that.
Looking back at previous elections though
2017 conservatives 42.4% labour 40.0% SNP 3.0%
2015 conservatives 36.9% labour 30.4%
2012 conservatives 36.1% labour 29.0% libdems 23.0%
10-11-12 points is actually a massive lead if accurate.
Even in Tony Blair’s “landslide” 1997 victory it was
Labour 43.2% conservatives 30.7% libdems 16.8%
42-43% for the Conservatives is actually very good when the golf club contingent (I suppose we should rename them the yacht club due to our gnome) are annoyed with them over Brexit. Looking back at previous elections though
2017 conservatives 42.4% labour 40.0% SNP 3.0%
2015 conservatives 36.9% labour 30.4%
2012 conservatives 36.1% labour 29.0% libdems 23.0%
10-11-12 points is actually a massive lead if accurate.
Even in Tony Blair’s “landslide” 1997 victory it was
Labour 43.2% conservatives 30.7% libdems 16.8%
Labour will no doubt get plenty of voters from people who don't want to see Corbyn in No 10. The margin between a deadlocked parliament and a Labour/SNP/Lib Dem coalition is very small however.
Brave Fart said:
JagLover said:
Labour will no doubt get plenty of voters from people who don't want to see Corbyn in No 10. The margin between a deadlocked parliament and a Labour/SNP/Lib Dem coalition is very small however.
Sorry? Did you mean to say "Boris"?Many voters are hoping for another deadlocked parliament so will be voting Labour with no actual desire to see Labour form the next government.
hutchst said:
jsf said:
Fantastic photo that. The certainty of youth on the faces and body language in the foreground, the i know what's coming, oh crap, of the more mature in the background.
Might one say that, on balance, Pol Pot did more good than harm?
jtremlett said:
El stovey said:
Interesting seeing how accurate YouGov polls were in 2015 ...
Yes, interesting. My reading being that the only one that was anywhere close was the 2017 exit poll - which isn't all that much help with the polls so far.I am purely speculating here but if YouGov switched to these type of services, the algorithmics for the 2017 election would be re-tuned and re-used for this election.
People in the technology industry like myself will be very interested to see whether YouGov have again approached the accuracy of the exit poll for the second time or whether it was a fluke.
Carl_Manchester said:
There was a quantum leap in commercially available AI/Big Data technology between 2015-2017 and the leap is just as big between 2017 and now, thanks to Google and Microsoft Cloud options.
I am purely speculating here but if YouGov switched to these type of services, the algorithmics for the 2017 election would be re-tuned and re-used for this election.
People in the technology industry like myself will be very interested to see whether YouGov have again approached the accuracy of the exit poll for the second time or whether it was a fluke.
This is their info about how their model works.I am purely speculating here but if YouGov switched to these type of services, the algorithmics for the 2017 election would be re-tuned and re-used for this election.
People in the technology industry like myself will be very interested to see whether YouGov have again approached the accuracy of the exit poll for the second time or whether it was a fluke.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-repo...
Not sure if it sheds light on your question or not though.
Captain Raymond Holt said:
Id put £20 on there be a majority but not more than a 22 seat one.
This iw a real danger too IMO. It might be hard to imagine any Tories backsliding on Brexit after this campaign but give it a few months, some difficult negotiations and the prospect of a dozen Tory remainers siding with the opposition to block leaving or tie the government's hands in negotiations and we are back to square oneGassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff