Poll: Election 2019
Total Members Polled: 1601
Discussion
El stovey said:
JagLover said:
No I meant Corbyn
Many voters are hoping for another deadlocked parliament so will be voting Labour with no actual desire to see Labour form the next government.
Seems risky? Voting for labour but hoping they don’t actually get a majority.Many voters are hoping for another deadlocked parliament so will be voting Labour with no actual desire to see Labour form the next government.
Sway said:
El stovey said:
JagLover said:
No I meant Corbyn
Many voters are hoping for another deadlocked parliament so will be voting Labour with no actual desire to see Labour form the next government.
Seems risky? Voting for labour but hoping they don’t actually get a majority.Many voters are hoping for another deadlocked parliament so will be voting Labour with no actual desire to see Labour form the next government.
JagLover said:
Sway said:
El stovey said:
JagLover said:
No I meant Corbyn
Many voters are hoping for another deadlocked parliament so will be voting Labour with no actual desire to see Labour form the next government.
Seems risky? Voting for labour but hoping they don’t actually get a majority.Many voters are hoping for another deadlocked parliament so will be voting Labour with no actual desire to see Labour form the next government.
14% lead now according to the latest poll
https://uk-mobile-reuters-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v...
Corbyn has really got Boris on the ropes now
https://uk-mobile-reuters-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v...
Corbyn has really got Boris on the ropes now
hutchst said:
Voting Conservative isn't voting for Boris, unless you live in Uxbridge.
We dont have an executive President in the UK, our Prime Minister has NO executive power under our constitution. He gets one vote in the commons, same as every other MP, and he chairs cabinet meetings. That's it. He is just the bloke the Conservative party has selected as its leader for the time being. But they could change that tomorrow. And again next week. And the week after. The 'personalisation' of politics in the UK is a recent media construct to generate headlines out of nothing, and it is distorting politics here for the gullible. It is also a large cause of the inability of modern-day polls to predict the outcome of any election.
In theory. Blair put the lie to that though, by controlling his MPs with a rod of iron, so he effectively had presidential power. We dont have an executive President in the UK, our Prime Minister has NO executive power under our constitution. He gets one vote in the commons, same as every other MP, and he chairs cabinet meetings. That's it. He is just the bloke the Conservative party has selected as its leader for the time being. But they could change that tomorrow. And again next week. And the week after. The 'personalisation' of politics in the UK is a recent media construct to generate headlines out of nothing, and it is distorting politics here for the gullible. It is also a large cause of the inability of modern-day polls to predict the outcome of any election.
98elise said:
14% lead now according to the latest poll
https://uk-mobile-reuters-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v...
Corbyn has really got Boris on the ropes now
Polling for the 2017 election is an interesting comparison https://uk-mobile-reuters-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v...
Corbyn has really got Boris on the ropes now
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_fo...
In both cases support for the smaller parties has just vanished over the course of the campaign. Ominously the second to final poll before the 2017 election gave the Tories a 13 point lead.
If I was a Labour spin doctor I would be going all out to get Jo Swinson every second of available air time between now and Thursday.
CrutyRammers said:
hutchst said:
Voting Conservative isn't voting for Boris, unless you live in Uxbridge.
We dont have an executive President in the UK, our Prime Minister has NO executive power under our constitution. He gets one vote in the commons, same as every other MP, and he chairs cabinet meetings. That's it. He is just the bloke the Conservative party has selected as its leader for the time being. But they could change that tomorrow. And again next week. And the week after. The 'personalisation' of politics in the UK is a recent media construct to generate headlines out of nothing, and it is distorting politics here for the gullible. It is also a large cause of the inability of modern-day polls to predict the outcome of any election.
In theory. Blair put the lie to that though, by controlling his MPs with a rod of iron, so he effectively had presidential power. We dont have an executive President in the UK, our Prime Minister has NO executive power under our constitution. He gets one vote in the commons, same as every other MP, and he chairs cabinet meetings. That's it. He is just the bloke the Conservative party has selected as its leader for the time being. But they could change that tomorrow. And again next week. And the week after. The 'personalisation' of politics in the UK is a recent media construct to generate headlines out of nothing, and it is distorting politics here for the gullible. It is also a large cause of the inability of modern-day polls to predict the outcome of any election.
JuanCarlosFandango said:
In both cases support for the smaller parties has just vanished over the course of the campaign. Ominously the second to final poll before the 2017 election gave the Tories a 13 point lead.
.
It did, but there were others which gave a fairly large pointer to it being a lot closer. Over the two weeks leading up to the vote there were quite a few polls showing small 1,3,4% or whatever Con leads and several with Labour in the 38-40% range..
It is a bit of a myth that all the "polls were wrong" in 2017, some were pretty accurate. YouGov had both traditional polls and MRP showing a hung parliament, Survation, Ipsos-Mori, Kantar all got close to the actual vote with margin of error.
It doesn't seem to have followed the same pattern as yet this time with Con, if anything, pulling ahead again in the final week.
YouGov will have an updated MRP out on Tuesday evening I think which will be interesting.
Who knows what will actually happen on Thursday but the signs were there in 2017 for anyone who looked for them and they haven't shown up yet this time.
glazbagun said:
Plus Boris has already sacked a swathe of MP's for defying him. I don't think even Blair did that.
Ironically including many who voted for a Brexit deal more times than he did.Worth remembering he only decided he could vote for May's deal once there was a vacancy going.
Suddenly slavery and vassalage didn't seem so bad.
Man of principle is Boris.
confused_buyer said:
It did, but there were others which gave a fairly large pointer to it being a lot closer. Over the two weeks leading up to the vote there were quite a few polls showing small 1,3,4% or whatever Con leads and several with Labour in the 38-40% range.
It is a bit of a myth that all the "polls were wrong" in 2017, some were pretty accurate. YouGov had both traditional polls and MRP showing a hung parliament, Survation, Ipsos-Mori, Kantar all got close to the actual vote with margin of error.
It doesn't seem to have followed the same pattern as yet this time with Con, if anything, pulling ahead again in the final week.
YouGov will have an updated MRP out on Tuesday evening I think which will be interesting.
Who knows what will actually happen on Thursday but the signs were there in 2017 for anyone who looked for them and they haven't shown up yet this time.
If you look at the trends from this years & the last election they are showing very different at present. In 2017, Tories trended down overall in the polls whereas Labour were trending up throughout the campaign at a faster rate than the tories fell. It is a bit of a myth that all the "polls were wrong" in 2017, some were pretty accurate. YouGov had both traditional polls and MRP showing a hung parliament, Survation, Ipsos-Mori, Kantar all got close to the actual vote with margin of error.
It doesn't seem to have followed the same pattern as yet this time with Con, if anything, pulling ahead again in the final week.
YouGov will have an updated MRP out on Tuesday evening I think which will be interesting.
Who knows what will actually happen on Thursday but the signs were there in 2017 for anyone who looked for them and they haven't shown up yet this time.
This year both have trended up, with Tory support remaining steady over the last couple of weeks, while labour have gained a little in the same time. What you also see is a transfer early in the campaign of Brexit votes to the Tories, as the Brexit vote level has stabilized so has the Tory support. Labour has continued to rise as support for the LibDems has continued to fall.
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hstewie said:
hstewie said: Quite a good technical report on the origin of some of the recent Russian leaks that Corbyn has been peddling.
Operators keen to hide their identities disseminated leaked UK/US trade documents in a similar fashion to Russian operation “Secondary Infektion,” exposed in June 2019
On another note but related (sneaky stuff related). Caught up on this some weeks ago and ITV have a report on it.Operators keen to hide their identities disseminated leaked UK/US trade documents in a similar fashion to Russian operation “Secondary Infektion,” exposed in June 2019
https://www.itv.com/news/2019-11-27/former-chief-t...
Cambridge Analytica in there again. Also now doing SNP ads it would seem, on Facebook.
And another interesting attempt from somewhere claiming leaked info but malware documents (if true as claimed) sent to Labour MP.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/03/labo...
bhstewie said:
hstewie said:glazbagun said:
Plus Boris has already sacked a swathe of MP's for defying him. I don't think even Blair did that.
Ironically including many who voted for a Brexit deal more times than he did.Worth remembering he only decided he could vote for May's deal once there was a vacancy going.
Suddenly slavery and vassalage didn't seem so bad.
Man of principle is Boris.
All those who voted for the deal have publicly stated why they did vote for the deal, it just suits people's agenda's to ignore such reasons.
Keep up the good work it's amusing all be it futile
768 said:
JagLover said:
768 said:
Labour clearly winning in the polls.
The poll that matters is on Thursday And they say Boris is the one who's like Trump.
Let's have that Kay Burley vs. Burgon slapdown again:
https://www.express.co.uk/videos/6096962437001/Kay...
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