Election 2019

[turbobloke]

stongle said:

Yep, the outlook for a Con majority has worsened - BUT still the most likely outcome using statistical analysis and probability in the YouGov methodoligy. The 85 seats within the margin for error - of course can throw out a curve ball (interestingly I was out last night with a girl whom organied the CNN 2016 presidential election party); so sad faces all round might still be a possible outcome. Been saying it for days - tighter than a gnats front bottom - get out and vote.

But lets look at the acual YouGov poll - it still predicts a 28 seat majority. 68 majority 2 weeks ago; was something of a landslide (obviously I'd prefer a majority of 647 (allowing for the speak and 2 deputies); but 28 should do it.

McDonnell says he is confident labour will win - either he has been at the Bong Water, kool aid, mountain of coke or knows something we probably don't booboo..

Within its margin for error, the YouGov poll is nevertheless consistent with 367 Tory seats and a significantly larger majority.

Looking at other polls and other inadequate seat calculators, a 30-40 majority is likely particularly with shy Tories and the Labour MP advertisement aimed at Labour voters saying Do Not Vote Labour doing the rounds only very recently. That will have an impact alongside NHS Project Fear.

[turbobloke]

Norfolkit said:

Laura Kuenssberg just reported on Politics Live that postal votes are dire for Labour, dire is her word not mine (but I hope she's correct). Does anyone get sight of the postal votes prior to the count?

Polling co's have looked to up their game and YouGov MRP gained respect from the 2017 GE.

This one could be a Major surprise, for those who can recall the previous occasion.

Officially postal votes are meant to remain secret until after the result is announced are they not?

[vaud]

Norfolkit said:

Laura Kuenssberg just reported on Politics Live that postal votes are dire for Labour, dire is her word not mine (but I hope she's correct). Does anyone get sight of the postal votes prior to the count?

ETA
For accuracy she said "looking dire", she wasn't implying that anyone has counted them.

They shouldn't, no. The postal votes are opened but the vote itself is kept face down and not counted until after the polls close.

[Zirconia]

mr_spock said:

kev1974 said:

kuro68k said:

amusingduck said:

Oh wonderful, finally somebody who can explain to me how that works. By what mechanism is the NHS going to be 'sold off', ditto preventing the NHS from sourcing drugs from non-US companies/forcing NHS to overpay?

Well when we adopt US patent rules on medicine we can't just buy cheaper generic versions as we do now. That's what patents are for, to stop you doing that.

Shocking that people don't understand basic stuff like this and are willingly going to destroy the best thing we have in this country because of it.

But that's not "selling off the NHS" is it. It's just being hobbled by incompetent procurement.

It's also not true. There was an expert on LBC yesterday (Nick Ferrari I think) who explained this. The preliminary discussions were about the way drug pricing works. Basically, the drug companies lower the price for an extended patent life. The "leaked" docs showed that the UK and US agreed that our rules are the same, so it's a non-issue.

There are prices and patents and drugs the NHS do not use that the US want on the table. The patent extension I understand is one of the things they want, they don't like short patents and looks like they want other caveats regarding pricing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=14Lz9wB21L4&fe...
That is what they want, deal is yet to be done. The video is a wider part of the want, not just drugs.

[anonymous-user]

I think there are so many tight seats that the polls are not giving us the true picture. I'm expecting Labour to collapse.

[turbobloke]

"There’s only one way to get Brexit done and stop Jeremy Corbyn"

Lord Ashcroft at https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/12/theres-only-...

[BOR]

Norfolkit said:

Laura Kuenssberg just reported on Politics Live that postal votes are dire for Labour, dire is her word not mine (but I hope she's correct). Does anyone get sight of the postal votes prior to the count?

Maybe it was a daydream she just had ?

Did she look absolutely ecstatic when she said it ?

[HoHoHo]

I'm still a bit undecided about my vote direction this coming Thursday.

I've obviously taken into consideration what I consider to be the following swaying points on the two main parties.

On the one hand the Conservative Boris Johnson is a bit of a rascal with the ladies and can sometimes bend the truth a bit, he’s also a bit posh and a bit scruffy.

And on the other hand..

Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn Invited two IRA members to parliament two weeks after the Brighton bombing.
Attended Bloody Sunday commemoration with bomber Brendan McKenna.
Attended meeting with Provisional IRA member Raymond McCartney.
Hosted IRA linked Mitchell McLaughlin in parliament.
Spoke alongside IRA terrorist Martina Anderson.
Attended Sinn Fein dinner with IRA bomber Gerry Kelly.
Chaired Irish republican event with IRA bomber Brendan MacFarlane.
Attended Bobby Sands commemoration honouring IRA terrorists.
Stood in minute’s silence for IRA gunmen shot dead by the SAS.
Refused to condemn the IRA in Sky News interview.
Refused to condemn the IRA on Question Time.
Refused to condemn IRA violence in BBC radio interview.
Signed EDM after IRA Poppy massacre massacre blaming Britain for the deaths.
Arrested while protesting in support of Brighton bomber’s co-defendants.
Lobbied government to improve visiting conditions for IRA killers.
Attended Irish republican event calling for armed conflict against Britain.
Hired suspected IRA man Ronan Bennett as a parliamentary assistant.
Hired another aide closely linked to several convicted IRA terrorists.
Heavily involved with IRA sympathising newspaper London Labour Briefing.
Put up £20,000 bail money for IRA terror suspect Roisin McAliskey.
Didn’t support IRA ceasefire.
Said Hamas and Hezbollah are his “friends“.
Called for Hamas to be removed from terror banned list.
Called Hamas “serious and hard-working“.
Attended wreath-laying at grave of Munich massacre terrorist.
Attended conference with Hamas and PFLP.
Photographed smiling with Hezbollah flag.
Attended rally with Hezbollah and Al-Muhajiroun.
Repeatedly shared platforms with PFLP plane hijacker.
Hired aide who praised Hamas’ “spirit of resistance“.
Accepted £20,000 for state TV channel of terror-sponsoring Iranian regime.
Opposed banning Britons from travelling to Syria to fight for ISIS.
Defended rights of fighters returning from Syria.
Said ISIS supporters should not be prosecuted.
Compared fighters returning from Syria to Nelson Mandela.
Said the death of Osama Bin Laden was a “tragedy“.
Wouldn’t sanction drone strike to kill ISIS leader.
Voted to allow ISIS fighters to return from Syria.
Opposed shoot to kill.
Attended event organised by terrorist sympathising IHRC.
Signed letter defending Lockerbie bombing suspects.
Wrote letter in support of conman accused of fundraising for ISIS.
Spoke of “friendship” with Mo Kozbar, who called for destruction of Israel.
Attended event with Abdullah Djaballah, who called for holy war against UK.
Called drone strikes against terrorists “obscene”.
Boasted about “opposing anti-terror legislation”.
Said laws banning jihadis from returning to Britain are “strange”.
Accepted £5,000 donation from terror supporter Ted Honderich.
Accepted £2,800 trip to Gaza from banned Islamist organisation Interpal.
Called Ibrahim Hewitt, extremist and chair of Interpal, a “very good friend”.
Accepted two more trips from the pro-Hamas group PRC.
Speaker at conference hosted by pro-Hamas group MEMO.
Met Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh several times.
Hosted meeting with Mousa Abu Maria of banned group Islamic Jihad.
Patron of Palestine Solidarity Campaign – marches attended by Hezbollah.
Compared Israel to ISIS, Hamas, Hezbollah and al-Qaeda.
Said we should not make “value judgements” about Britons who fight for ISIS.
Received endorsement from Hamas.
Attended event with Islamic extremist Suliman Gani.
Chaired Stop the War, who praised “internationalism and solidarity” of ISIS.
Praised Raed Salah, who was jailed for inciting violence in Israel.
Signed letter defending jihadist advocacy group Cage.
Met Dyab Jahjah, who praised the killing of British soldiers.
Shared platform with representative of extremist cleric Muqtada al-Sadr.
Compared ISIS to US military in interview on Russia Today.
Opposed proscription of Hizb ut-Tahrir.
Attended conference which called on Iraqis to kill British soldiers.
Attended Al-Quds Day demonstration in support of destruction of Israel.
Supported Hamas and ISIS-linked Viva Palestina group.
Attended protest with Islamic extremist Moazzam Begg.
Made the “case for Iran” at event hosted by Khomeinist group.
Photographed smiling with Azzam Tamimi, who backed suicide bombings.
Photographed with Abdel Atwan, who sympathised with attacks on US troops.
Said Hamas should “have tea with the Queen”.
Attended ‘Meet the Resistance’ event with Hezbollah MP Hussein El Haj.
Attended event with Haifa Zangana, who praised Palestinian “mujahideen”.
Defended the infamous anti-Semitic Hamas supporter Stephen Sizer.
Attended event with pro-Hamas and Hezbollah group Naturei Karta.
Backed Holocaust denying anti-Zionist extremist Paul Eisen.
Photographed with Abdul Raoof Al Shayeb, later jailed for terror offences.
Mocked “anti-terror hysteria” while opposing powers for security services.
Named on speakers list for conference with Hamas sympathiser Ismail Patel.
Criticised drone strike that killed Jihadi John.
Said the 7/7 bombers had been denied “hope and opportunity”.
Said 9/11 was “manipulated” to make it look like bin Laden was responsible.
Failed to unequivocally condemn the 9/11 attacks.
Called Columbian terror group M-19 “comrades”.
Blamed beheading of Alan Henning on Britain.
Gave speech in support of Gaddafi regime.
Signed EDM spinning for Slobodan Milosevic.
Blamed Tunisia terror attack on “austerity”.
Voted against banning support for the IRA.
Voted against the Prevention of Terrorism Act three times during the Troubles.
Voted against emergency counter-terror laws after 9/11.
Voted against stricter punishments for being a member of a terror group.
Voted against criminalising the encouragement of terrorism.
Voted against banning al-Qaeda.
Voted against outlawing the glorification of terror.
Voted against control orders.
Voted against increased funding for the security services to combat terrorism.

So it’s a tricky one really

[Sway]

kuro68k said:

amusingduck said:

Oh wonderful, finally somebody who can explain to me how that works. By what mechanism is the NHS going to be 'sold off', ditto preventing the NHS from sourcing drugs from non-US companies/forcing NHS to overpay?

Well when we adopt US patent rules on medicine we can't just buy cheaper generic versions as we do now. That's what patents are for, to stop you doing that.

Shocking that people don't understand basic stuff like this and are willingly going to destroy the best thing we have in this country because of it.

Please name a single existing trade agreement that has increased costs of goods...

Also, even in the scenario you state, you're not going to be more than doubling the NHS's medicines spend - and you're ignoring the potential upside for one of our highest value and most competitive industries...

[booboise blueboys]

Oh dear. Not looking good for the Conservatives after recent news. They've run a terrible campaign, even Theresa May must be wincing at.

The country are waking up to the endless lies from Johnson and his weak leadership skills. Interesting times ahead.

[turbobloke]

booboise blueboys said:

Oh dear. Not looking good for the Conservatives after recent news. They've run a terrible campaign, even Theresa May must be wincing at.

The country are waking up to the endless lies from Johnson and his weak leadership skills. Interesting times ahead.

[anonymous-user]

booboise blueboys said:

Oh dear. Not looking good for the Conservatives after recent news. They've run a terrible campaign, even Theresa May must be wincing at.

The country are waking up to the endless lies from Johnson and his weak leadership skills. Interesting times ahead.

A conservative majority is by far still the most likely outcome though.

[zygalski]

Not voting communist
Not voting Republican lite party
Not voting loons

Spoilt ballot with none of the above it is then, for the first time ever.

[anonymous-user]

booboise blueboys said:

Oh dear. Not looking good for the Conservatives after recent news. They've run a terrible campaign, even Theresa May must be wincing at.

The country are waking up to the endless lies from Johnson and his weak leadership skills. Interesting times ahead.

The polls are suggesting they get about 100 seats more then the next best party and they're on course to win more seats then all the other parties put together.

In what world is that 'not looking good' for them?

[Jordan210]

El stovey said:

A conservative majority is by far still the most likely outcome though.

According to one bookies its currently 74% likely.

[crankedup]

booboise blueboys said:

Oh dear. Not looking good for the Conservatives after recent news. They've run a terrible campaign, even Theresa May must be wincing at.

The country are waking up to the endless lies from Johnson and his weak leadership skills. Interesting times ahead.

What is your election forecast ?

[zygalski]

HoHoHo said:

I'm still a bit undecided about my vote direction this coming Thursday.

I've obviously taken into consideration what I consider to be the following swaying points on the two main parties.
....
So it’s a tricky one really

Would make more sense to post that somewhere other than a Tory fanboy forum.

[Brave Fart]

booboise blueboys said:

Oh dear. Not looking good for the Conservatives after recent news. They've run a terrible campaign, even Theresa May must be wincing at.

The country are waking up to the endless lies from Johnson and his weak leadership skills. Interesting times ahead.

Do you actually have a point to make? Or do you think your time is well spent chucking daft soundbite comments like this onto the forum?
The last three words are OK, but hardly needed saying.

[Baby Shark doo doo doo doo]

Mr_Megalomaniac said:

The NHS is a shambles to be honest. My fiancee is a specialist cancer nurse and I hear the ins and outs from her and her colleagues.
Now, The Netherlands and Australia are two prime examples to be brought to your attention. They function fundamentally as private-run entities.
Patients pay a nominal fee to use their services and are required to take out health care insurance to plug the gap. The government only pays for those who are unable to - resulting in a far lower gross and per capita cost. The net effect? Both those systems far outperform the NHS.

Is it any wonder then that most employment offers in the UK provide for some form of private medical care instead as a perk? I know the people like to get all touchy-feely over the NHS and start clutching their mother's pearls, but I guarantee you right now that if you reduced the tax burden by the equivalent amount, privatised the entire thing, and required people to purchase health care insurance or gap cover insurance instead, then there would be a vast increase in the quality within a few years.
But tragically people are so stuck in their mantras and their ways that no one seems to be able to change and are functionally unable to think.

There's a better way to do things if we could be a bit more honest with ourselves rather than constantly hiking taxes, lobbing money via the government back to ourselves, and repeating the same old tired cycle every 10 years.

Yep.

The trouble seems to be that they planned for ‘SuperHospitals’ and started closing the smaller regional hospitals as the patients could go to the new SuperHospitals. The trouble is that the SuperHospitals never materialised and so a small city hospital now has to cater for an entire region. Increased number of patients but no increase in capacity.

Of course, those making these decisions aren’t working with the public so couldn’t give a st.

[booboise blueboys]

janesmith1950 said:

booboise blueboys said:

Oh dear. Not looking good for the Conservatives after recent news. They've run a terrible campaign, even Theresa May must be wincing at.

The country are waking up to the endless lies from Johnson and his weak leadership skills. Interesting times ahead.

The polls are suggesting they get about 100 seats more then the next best party and they're on course to win more seats then all the other parties put together.

In what world is that 'not looking good' for them?

That won't happen. Look at YouGov's MRP. Well within the margin of error where The Cons could get as low as 311!

Would be absolutely hilarious but no more than they deserve for running one of the worst election campaigns in living memory. Who on earth is advising Johnson? He should have had this election in the bag but they've successfully thrown it away.

What a disaster.