How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 12)

[anonymous-user]

I’m just not sure we have still managed to solve the Good Friday Agreement?

[p1stonhead]

Lord Marylebone said:

I’m just not sure we have still managed to solve the Good Friday Agreement?

No need for a border in Ireland if the border is in the Irish Sea.

He’s apparently taken away one of TM’s red lines in not leaving NI in the EU.

We shall see today (?) presumably.

[Stay in Bed Instead]

psi310398 said:

This PM, of course, being the only one ever who has threatened consequences for defying a three line whip? You really are clutching at straws.

Does that mean you support his actions?

Why would I be clutching at straws?

[psi310398]

Lord Marylebone said:

I’m just not sure we have still managed to solve the Good Friday Agreement?

Whatever the outcome of Brexit, we clearly haven't, as we seem to have a cadre of politicians who st their pants the minute a group of organised criminals threaten to revert to terrorism if they don't get their way.

[Stay in Bed Instead]

Troubleatmill said:

Well - it drains the swamp of Remainers in the Conservative party - and brings the ERG into the fold.
Set's Boris up quite nicely for a GE.

But what if it's no better than May's WA that Boris want's to force through?

[Sway]

p1stonhead said:

psi310398 said:

p1stonhead said:

Which you don’t automatically get sacked for disobeying do you?

Yes, ordinary MPs normally have the whip removed, and members of the government will usually be sacked if they do not have sufficient honour to resign before voting against their colleagues. May was too weak to make her rebels face such consequences but most PMs would have handed the rebels their cards.

So no, it’s not automatic it’s down to the PM.

For the vast majority of the life of the Whip's Offices, it would be an automatic removal of whip (I.e 'sacking).

From memory, it's only Corbyn and then May that simply watched as members of their party voted against a three line whip.

Ultimately, it's not bullying at all - it's an entirely typical and long standing system.

[ntiz]

Sway said:

Stay in Bed Instead said:

p1stonhead said:

Boris has apparently (just hearing on the radio) said anyone who votes down his deal is sacked.

It’ll be interesting certainly!

He's quite a bully really.

If he was employing these people they would no doubt register a complaint against him.

It's a normal three line whip...

I can’t comment on your work but in my company if you walk across the road to my competitor and helped them screw me. You wouldn’t have job with me for much longer.

You can’t expect to against the party in crucial votes and expect to keep your job.

[Sway]

Lord Marylebone said:

I’m just not sure we have still managed to solve the Good Friday Agreement?

It's impossible to solve something that isn't effected by customs controls, due to customs controls being in place.

[Sway]

ntiz said:

Sway said:

Stay in Bed Instead said:

p1stonhead said:

Boris has apparently (just hearing on the radio) said anyone who votes down his deal is sacked.

It’ll be interesting certainly!

He's quite a bully really.

If he was employing these people they would no doubt register a complaint against him.

It's a normal three line whip...

I can’t comment on your work but in my company if you walk across the road to my competitor and helped them screw me. You wouldn’t have job with me for much longer.

You can’t expect to against the party in crucial votes and expect to keep your job.

Exactly that.

[p1stonhead]

ntiz said:

Sway said:

Stay in Bed Instead said:

p1stonhead said:

Boris has apparently (just hearing on the radio) said anyone who votes down his deal is sacked.

It’ll be interesting certainly!

He's quite a bully really.

If he was employing these people they would no doubt register a complaint against him.

It's a normal three line whip...

I can’t comment on your work but in my company if you walk across the road to my competitor and helped them screw me. You wouldn’t have job with me for much longer.

You can’t expect to against the party in crucial votes and expect to keep your job.

So why are Boris, Mogg and half the cabinet still around then?

[Sway]

p1stonhead said:

So why are Boris, Mogg and half the cabinet still around then?

If they voted against a three line whip, then purely because May was terrified of losing a minority government.

Which just shows how badly advised she was.

One of the very best things Boris did was to immediately put in a three line whip on a Bill he knew the ultras couldn't support, then instantly reduced the DUP to meaningless, rather than kingmaker.

[psi310398]

Stay in Bed Instead said:

Does that mean you support his actions?

Why would I be clutching at straws?

Sure. How else do you run a party? I don't need to agree with his deal to see that he and his whips are exerting normal party discipline in a perfectly normal way. He's not exactly threatening to send Mark Francois round to rape their daughters or eat their firstborn, is he?

You are clutching at straws in claiming he's a bully.

[Stay in Bed Instead]

ntiz said:

I can’t comment on your work but in my company if you walk across the road to my competitor and helped them screw me. You wouldn’t have job with me for much longer.

You can’t expect to against the party in crucial votes and expect to keep your job.

I believe Boris voted against May's WA at one point.

[Earthdweller]

Helicopter123 said:

My sources are telling me the UK negotiating team has basically caved in.

Boris has capitulated.

Sources ?

On that point where has the Clapham omnibus disappeared to ?

He was always one for his “sources” and inside information

Maybe he got cancelled in the Tory cuts

[ntiz]

Perhaps May would have got some where if she had sacked a few. She didn’t have the balls for it.

I think it summed it up pretty well when she tried to do a cabinet reshuffle and half the cabinet told her to fk off and kept there positions. She was totally weak.

In her case though the opposition to her deal was so big it would have meant sacking half the party which really is a red flag that you are doing something wrong.

[psi310398]

Stay in Bed Instead said:

I believe Boris voted against May's WA at one point.

I might be mistaken, but ISTR that May did not 3L whip all of the WA votes for fear of being challenged to act if MPs rebelled. But, if he did rebel on a 3L he should have had the whip withdrawn. I don't think he rebelled while a minister, did he?

[anonymous-user]

psi310398 said:

Lord Marylebone said:

I’m just not sure we have still managed to solve the Good Friday Agreement?

Whatever the outcome of Brexit, we clearly haven't, as we seem to have a cadre of politicians who st their pants the minute a group of organised criminals threaten to revert to terrorism if they don't get their way.

I don’t think that fully takes into account the wishes of the ordinary Northern Irish people.

I was listening to Northern Irish commentators on the radio this morning and they say the main reason the GFA managed to calm things down is that it allowed the Northern Irish people to feel Irish if they wanted to feel Irish and to feel British if they want to feel British.

They can class themselves as feeling both Irish and British if they want.

The issue we will have going forward is that we will likely drift away from the regulatory alignment and suchlike that exists in Ireland and NI, leading to the citizens of Northern Ireland feeling ‘separated from Britain’, which apparently will inevitably lead to problems.

Hopefully not, but we will see.

[Stay in Bed Instead]

psi310398 said:

I might be mistaken, but ISTR that May did not 3L whip all of the WA votes for fear of being challenged to act if MPs rebelled. But, if he did rebel on a 3L he should have had the whip withdrawn. I don't think he rebelled while a minister, did he?

He resigned after the Chequers episode if I remember correctly.

[anonymous-user]

Helicopter123 said:

My sources are telling me the UK negotiating team has basically caved in.

Boris has capitulated.

Your 'sources'?

Lol, ok then.

[JNW1]

Murph7355 said:

Burwood said:

Or, the EU stuck to their guns and the UK had to give in order to get a deal down which both sides want to see happen. Nothing's ideal and the DUP will sign off on keeping NI in the EU Customs Union because it's for the greater good.

Nobody knows the detail yet to be able to say who bent most.

Boris will struggle in a GE if it was all him. And he knows it.

You're right, we don't yet know the detail of a deal or indeed whether there'll even be one. However, assuming there is, my guess is it will be only a mildly tweaked version of Theresa May's Withdrawal Agreement; the backstop may be replaced by something else now Boris is no longer reliant on DUP votes for a working majority but the rest will, I suspect, look very much like what TM came back with (i.e. pretty poor from a UK perspective).

However, assuming a deal is done, the question is whether a majority in Parliament will actually vote for it; wouldn't put money on that myself....